Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo: Elaine Luria, Jen Kiggans, and the Race for Virginia's 2nd District
Left to right: Rep. Elaine Luria (D) faces challenger Jen Kiggans (R) in the 2022 election. Photo courtesy of CNN.
EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Luria Ad
I'm Thomas Bowman.
Thomas Bowman
And this is Pod Virginia, a podcast that's taking a look at the hottest races on the ballot this year.
Luria Ad
This week, the hottest campaign in Virginia this year: the second congressional district.
Thomas Bowman
It's a district that was represented by Colgate Darden. He's a congressman who went on to be Governor. In more recent years. It's been a swing districts moving back and forth between the parties. Republican Thelma Drake then Democrat Glenn Nye, then Republicans Scott Rigell and Scott Taylor. Now of course, it's represented by a Democrat Elaine Luria.
Luria Ad
You know, I've been hearing multiple pronunciations. Is it Lur-ee-ah or Lur-ay-ah?
Thomas Bowman
I think she pronounces it Lur-ee-ah, although I hear a lot of Republicans say Lur-ay-ah.
Luria Ad
Mispronouncing your opponents name is a time-honored trick and politics and we'll see if it works here. Her opponent is State Senator Jen Kiggans who was elected in 2019 to fill the seat held by longtime Republican state senator Frank Wagner.
Thomas Bowman
So we've got a great guest today to help us understand the campaign and the candidates. We're joined by an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University. She's the research director at the Judy Wason Center for Civic Leadership, Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo. Thanks for joining us.
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Thank you for having me.
Thomas Bowman
All right. The first question, I want to take a look at this district. So like all the congressional districts, that's it's been redistricted this one has actually become more Republican. So despite the fact we've got a Democratic incumbent in there, it's becoming more challenging for the Democrat. Dr. Bromley Trujillo. Talk a little bit about the old district and the new district and what that means for this this campaign. Yes, absolutely.
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
So yeah, the previous district included parts of Norfolk, Hampton, Williamsburg, these are areas that have been carved out. So it's always included Virginia Beach, that's still true. But the newer district is encompassing Chesapeake, Isle of Wight, and Suffolk. And again, has removed or carved out in Norfolk and other areas in Hampton Roads, like Hampton and then Williamsburg. So what's really different here is that it's pulling out some places that Luria had actually done pretty well in, especially Norfolk. And so most political scientists would have argued that the old district had a slight Republican lean... about a two point Republican lean. But now, political scientists are saying this is more like a six-point Republican lean. And that's pretty meaningful when it comes to an election. That's a big swing and certainly for such a tight district already. And so though Luria is the incumbent, she's not really the incumbent of all of the new district.
Luria Ad
Alright, let's start with the challenger. This is how Jen Kiggans introduces herself to voters in an ad titled on the move.
Sen. Jen Kiggans
Liberal one party rule in Washington is destroying America, and our economy and way of life are suffering... Jen Kiggans nurse practitioner, Navy helicopter pilot, conservative state senator... I passed crucial election integrity legislation to ensure the accuracy of our voter rolls and protected our kids from transgender policies and CRT, because school should be about education, not indoctrination.
Luria Ad
Alright, so what does this tell us about who Jen Kiggans is and who she wants us to think she is?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yes, so this is sort of a classic mix of like telling us who you are as a candidate. So getting in there that she's a nurse practitioner, but also getting in some kind of culture war, talking points and some traditional conservatism there. So raising issues of fair elections, transgender policy... I would say this is Kiggans making sure that she's shoring up the more kind of Trumpian Republicans, but also trying to present herself as a moderate in other ways. So it's a combo, you know, introduce myself. And then here's a few very conservative pieces of me.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, so that election integrity bill that she mentions, was a bill that requires the Registrar of Vital Records to transmit a weekly list of deaths, rather than a monthly list of deaths. So you don't want dead people to be on the rolls, of course. And so the only way to do that is to have a list of dead people. So the the integrity bill that she was successful in passing, makes that a weekly list of debts rather than a monthly list. But then, of course, also, I think, you know, when I hear Kiggans talk about election integrity, my first thought is this vote that she took a budget vote in favor of... I think it was $70 million to audit, what they call a forensic audit, of not the 2021 election, the 2020 election. Dr. Bromley-Trujillo, what do you think the influence of, you know, January 6, and election integrity... what do you think that influence is going to have on the campaign this year?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
So this is a big part of the Republican strategy to emphasize these talking points about election integrity. But the way that Kiggans is doing so in this district is kind of a more moderate way of talking about it verbally, but also taking some actions that would appease more of the Trump voter who thinks that there was election fraud. So she is was one of very few individuals to support that audit you're speaking about. And so that is a pretty, you know, very well, a very conservative position or kind of Trumpian position. But when she was asked about whether the election was fraudulent, she certainly has not said that it was fraudulent. She just speaks more broadly in terms of election integrity. So she's, I would say, kind of pulling from the Governor Youngkin campaign playbook and that she is, you know, appeasing some Trump voters, but not going all in on this idea that there was election fraud.
Luria Ad
Let's zero in on her talking points about transgender policy is harmful--as if it could possibly be harmful to lift up kids... Is that going to play? Is this really an attempt to try to move the conversation away from abortion and the things that have been energizing Democratic voters? Or is there really people who identify with these kinds of policies?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
So certainly, there are some people who identify with these kinds of policies. And I'd say like Kiggans similar to Governor Youngkin is bringing up this idea that school transgender policies are somehow anti-parent. And so this idea that parents should get to decide what's happening in schools with their kids. And so they're linking those things together, in a way. And so it's, it's complicated in the sense that this is a district that's fairly moderate. But at the same time, these kinds of culture war issues can really drive up the base and some of those folks that they want to get out and vote and that they know would vote Republican.
Thomas Bowman
Well, one of the things Senator Kiggans wants you to know about her is that she's not extreme. In fact, she has an ad explicitly saying that she's not extreme. We'll get into that in a second. First, check out this ad from the Lauria campaign entitled, "When."
Luria Ad
When Roe v Wade was overturned. Jen Kiggans applauded the court decision, when millions of women lost their right to choose, Kiggans celebrated because she wants to make abortion illegal and allow politicians to ban abortion, with no exceptions for rape, incest, or danger to the life of the mother. When Virginians wanted our values represented, Jen Kiggans showed us she's too extreme.
Thomas Bowman
Okay, so the Lauria campaign says Jen Kiggans is two extreme. So the Kiggans camp responded with this ad titled, "A lot of things."
Kiggans Ad
I've been called a lot of things in my life, Hilo pilot, nurse practitioner, state senator, wife and mom. But extremist, that's a new one. My opponent is already lying about me because like a typical politician, she's only worried about one thing getting reelected. I'm worried about the same things you are keeping my kids safe and the family budget.
Thomas Bowman
So she says she's not an extremist. When I have to say I'm kind of reminded of the Christine O'Donnell campaign, you know, when she declared I'm not a witch. So everywhere Kiggans goes she gets asked about abortion even when she appears on Fox News. This is how she answered the question on Fox News when Dana Perino asked her where do you stand on that issue?
Sen. Jen Kiggans
Yeah, so in the abortion issue, what's what's important to remember, I am a pro life candidate. But my opponent has been lying about me on her ads. And she's just this has happened to a lot of Republican women calling us extremists. We are not extremists, you know, lying about those exceptions. And that's something that, you know, I've always supported the exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother,
Thomas Bowman
Dr. Bromley-Trujillo, abortion is clearly an issue that is front and center in the minds of voters. Democrats want to talk about it, you get the sense that Republicans are not particularly eager to talk about this issue. How is this going to factor into this election?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yes, so this is a really important thing. When the election season started, abortion wasn't coming up, because the Supreme Court hadn't made their landmark decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. And so Republicans started off in a successful talking point about inflation and the economy and stuff that tended to play well for them. But once that decision was made, it placed abortion on the agenda of the electorate. And certainly Democrats have championed the discussion. And so it puts Kiggans in a defensive position because Democrats points on abortion are tend to be more popular. And so certainly, it has put a wrench into this campaign and all over the country. And it's a particularly big deal in this race, because of how competitive the race was already. And then it's just easier for Elaine Luria, to talk about this issue, versus some other issues that would probably play more popular for Kiggans.
Luria Ad
Yeah, I think it's important to point out that only be in favor of exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother is an extreme position. It's inherently extreme. So Kiggans clearly doesn't want to talk about that. She wants the campaign to be about inflation and the economy, which by the way, inflation and the economy are two of the most important campaign issues year in and year out. But instead, she keeps getting asked about abortion. And during a recent appearance on WRVA. She was once again asked about abortion, and this is how she responded.
Sen. Jen Kiggans
They are trying to make that the issue to deflect right, from all of the issues that voters really care about, which are the ones I mentioned, you know, the economy, the prices of gas, and groceries. You know, we're all trying to send our kids back to school. And, you know, we're still facing supply chain shortages, workforce shortages. So they're trying to distract with these shiny objects, like the abortion issue. All right.
Luria Ad
So is abortion a shiny issue?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Well, I would say this kind of framing might upset, particularly college educated women. And this idea that if you deflect from inflation economy to abortion, you're somehow bringing up an unimportant issue. And I think that framing might not play out very well for her. But certainly, she's making the case that there are more important issues. And she was trying to draw voters back into the issues that would play well for the Republican Party, which is a focus on high prices related to inflation and the economy.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, and I want to clarify something because I did call this position inherently extreme. And the reason for that is because there's absolutely no medical reason to hold that position. It is entirely based upon religion, right? So in order to have that as your state policy, or a or a national policy, you have to inflict your narrow interpretation of religion on to somebody else. And not every religion, by the way, shares that opinion on abortion.
Thomas Bowman
Well, let's let's talk about the incumbent, Elaine Luria. This is how she introduced herself to voters back in her first campaign for Congress back in 2018.
Luria Ad
I was one of the first women to serve my entire Navy career on combatant ships, deployed six times. I'm Elaine Luria. And when this is your office, your only option is to work together. Congress could learn a thing or two at sea. Partisan politics can't protect Social Security and Medicare or fix our broken health care system. I approved this message because it'll take leaders from way outside Washington to bring a sea change to Congress.
Thomas Bowman
So that ad was appropriately titled see change. It's interesting if you compare that to the intro ad that we just listened to, for Kiggans you know, Kiggans intro ad you get a little bit of Kiggans, but then she goes right for those culture war issues, you know, a CRT and transgender policies. This one seems much more upbeat, and she's talking about her career in the Navy and this is from her first campaign. This is not the intro ad for this campaign, but Like, this is how she introduced herself to voters. What do we make of this intro? What does this was not only what it says about Luria, but what she thinks we should know about her?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yeah. So I mean, really, this is a candidate showing who they are. And her being a military veteran is a big deal to this district. There are a lot of folks in the military here active duty or veterans. And so she's playing into that strength them and something that voters would care about. It's also you know, at the time, and certainly, now, she needs to be moderate. The district was still a lean Republican district before it's even more so now. So presenting her background and giving people trust in her is really important. And so I think she would definitely want to avoid any issues that would make her appear very liberal. And so it's definitely a very different strategy, and one that arguably was needed then and even more so now.
Thomas Bowman
Looking at this district, I'm struck by the fact it's 60% of the voters are in Virginia Beach. And then here, we've got two female Navy vets, you know, running against each other. So what that that's really interesting dynamic here. How is that going to play out on the campaign trail?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yeah. So I mean, certainly, it makes sense that both of them would play out their veteran experience, given the demographics of the district. Some might suggest that because they're both veterans, maybe it's a wash in terms of how that would affect things. But I would say that for Luria, what she has been doing. Mostly she's been focusing on not just that she's a veteran, but also what she's done in Congress for veterans is a selling point for her. So even though they're both veterans, Luria, as the incumbent does have that slight advantage and being able to point to, well, I have addressed some of these issues in Congress related to burn pits are related to other veterans issues. And so she is certainly using that and also presenting what she's been able to do in relation to folks that are veterans out in Congress.
Thomas Bowman
Congresswoman Lauria is a member of the January 6 committee and she's leaning into that role, which is a strategic decision. She could have declined the opportunity to be on the committee or not mentioned it on the campaign trail at all. But instead, she's embraced the threats to democracy is one of her key issues. So check this ad out, titled "More horrific."
Luria Ad
It was a normal tourist visit. Not one appeared angry or incited a riot. Really not a lot happened that day... the only thing more horrific than what happened... These Patriots have been unfairly maligned....These were great people... is how much they want to cover it up. We're proud of the work that we did on January 6. I'm Elaine Luria and I approve this message, but it will take all of us to protect our democracy.
Thomas Bowman
All right, so the story is still being written. But it's her role on the January 6 committee from this point where we stand today a potential problem with swing voters and Republicans that she needs to win in this district?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
So it's possible that it would upset particularly the more right leaning voters, because certainly this is may appear like she's well, she is in a way going after Trump and going after the actions of Trump around January 6. And so But that said, I think her framing of this, as you know, she is a leader of protecting our democracy, she's able to sell that pretty effectively, especially given her role as a veteran and having served in the Navy, because she's presenting it as you know, I this is an extension of my like protecting the country is protecting a democracy through this January 6 hearings. And so, so I think the way she's framing it may not harm her, in terms of the vote, when we see in November,
Thomas Bowman
You say may not harm her. How do we sort of unpack that? Like if it did hurt her? How would we know that it hurt her? And if it didn't hurt her, like, how would we figure that out?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
So this is something that's difficult to tease out. I mean, certainly, we can ask voters either prior to or after the election, what were their primary issues that they voted based on and so we could get a sense of it through polling, and certainly that's the kind of thing that we do at the Wason Center. So that's one way. It is difficult to really ascertain. in other ways, though, because voters have many issues on their mind, and sometimes it's unclear which one of those issues really was the ultimate decider in their vote, and somebody or an individual that would be particularly unhappy with her role on the January 6 committee is not a likely Lauria voter. But it's possible that it could still maybe spur some voter turnout. But generally speaking, that doesn't seem to be the most frequent issue that voters are bringing up. And really, voters are bringing up two things: It's inflation and the economy and then abortion. So it's a little less clear how much of a role that's going to play at this point.
Thomas Bowman
One last question about campaign finance. So money is not everything. But the incumbent, of course, always has an advantage in terms of raising money. And Congresswoman Lauria has raised like $6 million, compared to Jen Kiggans who has raised $2 million, which is a good chunk of change. $2 million is certainly a respectable amount of cash to, to raise. But it's, you know, 1/3 of what the incumbent Congresswoman has. Clearly there will be lots of outside groups to throw money into this. So like, that's only part of the story, the actual fundraising of the individual candidates, but what do we make of the fundraising disparity, and will that be significant?
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yeah, so money in campaigns is a tricky subject and political scientists study this. And it's, it can be challenging to identify exactly its role. But it's, it can have a causal effect as in, like, people donate money, then they're able to put out more ads and get a broader message to the public, which can help them win. But money is also a signal. A signal of voters approval or interest in the campaign... enthusiasm. And so as a signal, yes, it's partly because she's an incumbent, you're right, that that can give an advantage and fundraising for sure. It may also be a signal that people have a lot of enthusiasm for this race, which could benefit Lauria, especially given she's raised significantly more money, and that's a stronger signal for her. On the other hand, we have plenty of examples where a candidate has fundraised way more than the other and loses badly. And so it's money doesn't always change the outcome. And it's not uncommon for it to have no real effect in the end. So one thing I will add to what I just said, this is a very competitive district. And you all mentioned this is a competitive district in Virginia, it's arguably one of the most competitive districts in the nation. And so there's a lot of attention. And so you are gonna see a lot of money pouring in from both inside the district and outside the district. And so that's also a force at play here.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And I want to go back to the campaign issues real quick and and draw throughline because Dr. Trujillo, you mentioned that inflation, the economy and abortion. They're all the big issues in this campaign. But of course, as we know, extreme economics does breed extreme politics, right. So all of these things are examples of either extreme economics or a symptom of extreme politics. So I kind of see this throughline here actually being a lot more central to the January 6 work, right? The elections about protecting democracy from all threats, foreign and domestic.
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yeah, yeah, I can definitely see that as well.
Thomas Bowman
All right. And of course, there will probably be more twist to come, either the indictment of President Trump or new revelations, and, of course, the primetime hearings, in which case, they could throw a veritable October surprise, or quite a literal October surprise into the campaign mix and make that J-six, committee, front and center in this campaign.
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yes, I can definitely see that being a possibility. And so the role of that may be less right now. But if things change, and suddenly we're seeing indictments, then yes, that will suddenly become a much more salient issue for voters.
Thomas Bowman
All right. That's a tantalizing place to leave it. So Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo. Thank you so much for joining us.
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Yes, I really enjoyed it. Thank you for having me.
