Chaz Nuttycombe and Bold Dominion: What To Look For In the Midterms
On this episode, Michael is joined by CNalysis' Chaz Nuttycombe, as well as Nathan Moore and Alana Bittner from WTJU's Bold Dominion podcast, to discuss the upcoming midterm elections in November. From Congressional races to local elections, Virginia could be a bellwether--are we in store for a Red Wave or the Democrats holding control?
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope, and this is Pod Virginia, a podcast right in the thick of campaign season. Election day is only like a week and a half away. And that means it's time for our special election crossover episode with our friends at the Bold Dominion podcast. Now, if you're unfamiliar with Bold Dominion, you'll definitely want to check them out. It's a state politics explainer for a changing Virginia, and you're definitely going to want to smash the subscribe button. And this episode, we're joined by the host of Bold Dominion, Nathan Moore, and producer Alana Bittner. The director of see CNalysis also joins us, Chaz Nuttycombe, who gives us a forecast for the election. And on election night, you're also going to want to make sure you've got the web page for CNalysis bookmarked because Chaz will be calling state legislative races from across the country. So keep up with the latest developments at CNalysis.com. Okay, enough of the introductions. Let's get into it. This is our special election crossover episode with Bold Dominion.
Nathan Moore
Alright, we're here on the podcast, and I want to hear from you all about the general landscape of Virginia politics in fall 2022. Right now, as we record this, what does it look like out there? Michael, let's start with you.
Michael Pope
Well, the most competitive seats are certainly the ones in Congress. Those are the ones most people are focused on, the highest profile of the stuff that will be on the ballot this year. And chief among them, of course, is the second congressional district down in Virginia Beach, where we've got the incumbent Congresswoman Elaine Luria, challenged by Republican state senator Jen Kiggans. This is like all seats. The seat has been redistricted. It is now mainly a Virginia Beach seat; 60% of the voters here are in Virginia Beach. And the old version of the district was very different demographically. This redistricted version of the second congressional district moved from an R plus two to an R plus six. So, you know, that congressional district's landscape has shifted. That's the one that is at the top of everyone's list. And then there's also the seventh congressional district where you got Abigail Sanberger, being challenged by your Republican challenger, Yesli Vega. Jennifer Wexton has a Republican challenger Hung Cao. These are all at the top of everybody's concerns. There are also some local races in Arlington and Herndon. And so there's lots of stuff on the ballot and interesting things to look at this election cycle.
Nathan Moore
Let's start with Elaine Luria, the big race that you mentioned before, the incumbent Democrat who was elected in that Hampton Roads district, the old second district, as part of a sort of reaction to Trump the democratic sweep a few years ago. Now, Elaine Luria is facing a pretty tough challenge from Jen Kiggans. The various polls called a toss-up. Chaz Nuttycombe, you're with us and one of those prognosticators. What do you think about this particular race?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, we still have a toss-up in our forecast. We have ten toss-ups in the CNalysis US House forecasts right now. And the Virginia second congressional district is one of them. You know, Luria did well relative to the old second district back in 2018 and 2020. But obviously, Scott Taylor was a hometown threat at the time and a 2018 incumbent Republican congressman, and then he tried to make a comeback bid in 2020 and failed. He obviously had scandals. So I think that was a significant factor, and Jen Kiggans was a hell of an overperformer in 2019. The state senate district she represents is much bluer. It's bluer than the second congressional district of Virginia. Overall, the redistricting did not favor Luria. As Michael noted, the district has gotten redder. I think it went to Biden by two points. So you know, it's going to be tougher. And, you know, when it comes to Virginia Beach, I mean, last year, Virginia Beach was not a great spot for Democrats, and 2021. For both the statewide races. Everyone lost Virginia Beach, all the Democrats, and then they lost two State House seats, including one that Biden won by double digits.
Michael Pope
Chaz, can I ask you about the recent Wasson Center poll in the second congressional district? If you saw this, it had Luria and Kiggans tied at 45% each. And you know, I'm always curious about polling at the congressional district level. What do we make of this Wasson Center poll where the candidates are tied?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, the Wasson Center is a pretty good pollster in Virginia. And, you know, the fact that they're tied at this point, and the generic ballot, continues to get more and more Republican as it is currently, you know, that could change with what, 15-something days left until election day. So it's not good news for Luria if they're tied right now. And the generic ballot, again, is continuing to get more Republican.
Michael Pope
And that poll also pointed out other interesting things in the second congressional district, like the enthusiasm gap favors Republicans. Republicans are much more enthusiastic about going to the polls than Democrats in this poll. And then also the issue that people were most focused on, the economy, in this congressional district, when this poll was taken. It wasn't even close, like the economy was twice or three times more popular than the number two issue on the list, which I think was threats to democracy, if I remember correctly. Still, in any event, the economy is driving people in this district, which is bad news for Democrats.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. That's not just in the Virginia second polls; for the generic ballot and statewide IDs, the economy has become more and more of an issue rather than abortion, which fueled Democrats and overperforming on a special election for the Hudson Valley districts that Delgado represented. The Democrats won that in early September. And then, of course, Alaska, they flipped Alaska. And Peltola, I think, is still going to hold on, in my opinion, despite this environment. Just given the polls that have come out of Alaska there, but just in general, abortion has become less of an issue to the voters. In contrast, the economy has changed, and that's not great news for the Democrats because they're hoping after Dobbs that they'd be able to use anger against the Republicans on the issue of abortion. Because it's still an issue that voters side with Democrats on for most issues on abortion, especially Roe v. Wade, it's pretty much going to look like a regular midterm now. In contrast, a few months ago, it looked like it could be an oddity where it'd be more of a neutral year.
Nathan Moore
A bit more about Elaine Luria, I've seen her in the news a fair bit. She played a very active role on the January 6 Commission investigating Trump's and different leaders' roles in the insurrection at the US Capitol. And you mentioned another one of these issues that's important to at least some voters is threats to our democracy. What's the landscape look like with Luria taking that active role? Is that helping? Is that hurting what Kiggans says about all this?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, someone asked her whether being on the January 6 commission could hurt her and cost her her reelection. And she said something along the lines that if that's the case, it's all right; it's worth it to be on this commission for January 6. But I'm going to be honest with you, the only people that are going to be caring about the January 6 Commission are the hardcore liberals, The Washington Post subscribers. That's not an issue in this election. It's only the, you know, MSNBC watchers who are going to be caring about the January 6 Commission and whatnot. When the commission started getting news about it, what was it back in June, July, and August? You know, there's a lot of focus on that. There's focus on Mar-a-Lago, an adjunct to abortion, that's, you know, why Democrats, we're seeing better news for them and a generic ballot. But if anything, that was different from what made the environment more neutral. And it's especially not going to be a driving factor in this midterm.
Michael Pope
I liked the idea of The Washington Post subscriber as an interest group. I hadn't thought about that before. I think we should have more interest groups of people who subscribe to your local newspaper. In fact, I would encourage listeners of this podcast please subscribe to your local newspaper. On the issue of the future of democracy, there is a fascinating contrast here between Luria and Kiggans because Kiggans voted for a $70 million forensic audit of the Virginia 2020 election. So this is, by the way, after, you know, Governor Youngkin is elected, and Republicans sweep statewide. Kiggans voting for a $70 million audit of the 2020 election in Virginia. So all that January 6 stuff is reflected in this election in a way you don't see anywhere else in the country.
Nathan Moore
There is something there. I mean, the future of democracy is something I know the left has been talking about as a real threat. If Trump is reelected in a couple of years, or take your pick, I mean, like a bunch of Republican candidates across the country, including here in Virginia, for US Congress, our 2020 election deniers. I mean, despite they're not bringing any evidence of, you know, the election being thrown anyway. Jen Kiggans and Yesli Vega, both mentioned at the top of the show, are not exactly full-throated election deniers, like, say, Bob Good here in the fifth. But they're still happy to dodge questions and not commit to saying, yes, it was a fair election. They won't say it. But what do you make of that?
Michael Pope
Well, I tell you what I make about that, Nathan is that it reminds me, you know, History always rhymes. Right. So like, if you think about the end of the 1800s, there were a lot of contested congressional elections. And there were a lot of concerns about, you know, ballot stuffing and illegal activities in elections and voter fraud. And this happened over and over and over again with congressional elections. And so the end result of all of that was the infamous constitution of 1901, which created all these Jim Crow laws around voting, and severely reduced the number of voters if you look at the difference, the difference in the voting population, between the 1901 election for Governor, this is before the new Jim Crow rules and the 1905 election for Governor. You'll see that they went down, and the number of voters went down like 35%. That's when I'm looking at our current discussion of election deniers and the election deniers on the ballot. What I'm seeing coming down the pike in the future is a raft of reform efforts, quote, unquote, reform efforts that will tighten the ability of people to vote and new rules around voting and making it harder to vote. And I think that's where we're headed with all this.
Nathan Moore
Right. So to ensure their victory, one party wants to put them on the scales and exclude certain sectors of voters. Is that it?
Alana Bittner
One thing I found interesting was when Youngkin went out to Arizona to campaign for Kari Lake. When asked about the fact that, you know, Lakes election denialism, when Youngkin was asked about that, his rhetoric was kind of like, well, maintaining the unity of the Republican Party is more important than, you know, like little petty differences between people running for office. And I think it's interesting to like the idea that the preservation of the Republican Party is maybe more important for Glenn Younkin. Then when members of that party deny legitimate election results. So to think that someone who would like presents, as you know, as he wants to present himself as a very reasonable, you know, Republican, you can also allow that in his party and consider that something that can exist in his party as well.
Nathan Moore
Is framing what it's all about? I suppose, but to hear that line, a lot of thank you for mentioning, because I'd missed that, that response, the in preserving the unity of the Republican Party is more important, effectively, then, like belief in our democratic system. You know, that's, that's what I hear. Let's, let's back it up. Again, we were talking about Elaine, Spanberger, and Jen Kiggans, and they said that one was pretty much a toss-up and might be difficult for Luria. It may or may not look good going into Election Day. Just up the road a little bit, but we've got Abigail Spanberger elected the same year as Luria in that Democratic wave a couple of elections ago, with a Republican challenger named Yesli Vega. Chaz, I think you've also got this one listed as a toss-up. Take me through what this particular race looks like.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Well, no, we currently have this race as lean Democratic. We did have it as a toss-up before, earlier in the summer, and just throughout our forecast for most of the year. But we updated our forecast back in September or August. So we moved it to lean Democratic. You know, the Vega campaign is a failure. I would say it's a very weak campaign. Not only, you know, just outside of the comments that Vega has made on the issue of abortion, which I will say if they were made in October, would be even more of a problem for her. Not only that, but Spanberger has so much money; she has such a financial advantage in the race. And then you know, the thing is about the seventh is that it's a lot of new territory for her, you know, Culpeper and Orange, you know, she's represented those before and then Spotsy. But you know, her base was the Richmond suburbs which she no longer represents, or while she represents them currently, but in this new district, if she wins, she won't be representing them. So it's a lot of new territory for her. Vega is, you know, from Prince William, the bluest part of the district, which could, you know, help put a tourniquet on the margins there. If she can run up the numbers in places like Culpeper and Orange, which are pretty red counties. But, you know, this district, even though it is it, does have a lot of new territory for Spanberger. It is bluer than the old seventh congressional district. So there is, at least, the voters there who have seen some of her ads in the DC media market. Because, again, some counties in her old district were in that media market. But still, I think she holds on, but it's going to be close. I would be surprised, Not incredibly surprised, but I'd be at least moderately surprised if Vega pulled off when. And if she does pull off when I wouldn't say it's because she's run a great campaign or whatever. I would say it would be because the Republican environment is more Republican than expected. Right now, I'm expecting an R plus three years, and I don't think that will be enough for Vega to win. But she can come close. But if it's something like R plus four, R plus five. Yeah, Vega will probably win.
Michael Pope
The thing that's striking to me about Yesli Vega is that she represents this trend among Republican candidates of having these much more diverse people on the ballot than they have for many generations. You know, we currently have Attorney General Jason Miyares Republican candidate who became Attorney General Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears. And so Yesli Vega represents this new kind of Republican candidate. She did outreach to the Hispanic community for the Youngkin campaign. So now he's returning the favor by campaigning for her. And then on the Spanberger side, you know, Spanberger has been campaigning with Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, who has come under fire from Republicans. For going back to the politics of transgender students here. So Elizabeth Guzman has a bill that would have the police potentially investigating parents who don't affirm the gender identity of their students. Guzman says Republicans are mischaracterizing her bill in any event. This has reinjected a lot of that sort of transgender politics from, you know, the Youngkin campaign and injected it into this race in a way that has Republicans feeling more energized heading into Election Day.
Nathan Moore
I was going to bounce off that, Michael, because I have seen this trend as well, where Republicans in Virginia last few years have found a lot more not-white guys to run for office under the GOP ticket, right? And, historically, you look at who's elected as Republicans in the state. It is typically white guys for decades and decades. So it's interesting to see. The other thing I noticed is you've got all four of these candidates, Luria and Kiggans, and Spanberger and Vega; they all are these women with backgrounds in defense, or law enforcement or intelligence, some kind.
Michael Pope
Two Navy vets are running against each other. It's pretty interesting.
Nathan Moore
I don't know. I mean, how is this like a template that everybody's supposed to follow? Now?
Michael Pope
Well, does it work for Virginia Beach? I mean, this is the home of, you know, a major military installation, one of the largest in the world. And so yeah, I mean, if it's going to happen anywhere, it's going to be the second correctional district.
Nathan Moore
Sure. So you've got a huge percentage of vets and a lot of them for vets, or see themselves in a veteran who's, running for office.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Michael was making a good point on how Republican candidates are becoming more and more diverse, whether it be more women running for office or candidates who, you know, are not white running for office. And that happened in 2020. You didn't see Republicans trying to recruit comeback bids, and the ones where they did have comeback bids usually failed, for example, Scott Taylor. But some of them did work, like David Valadao; I think I may be mispronouncing that name. But he represents a very, very blue district in California, and he lost barely in 2018. It was a big upset. And then he made a comeback bid. But for the most part, Republicans are recruiting candidates that weren't just white guys. Because that's a large part of their caucus, especially back in 2018, and so, they have candidates like Yong Kim, who are flipping blue districts. And then, I think you'll definitely see more of these Latina candidates that the GOP has, especially in places like South Texas, that will do well. It'll be interesting to see if they continue trying to make their caucus more diverse, trying to get more diverse candidates to run, especially in these blue districts.
Alana Bittner
Yea, I also think that 2020 kind of woke the Democrats up to the fact that they can't take the Hispanic vote for granted; it's not a monolith. Obviously, people will come to these topics from different backgrounds, values, principles, and things like that. So I feel like I've seen articles saying, Oh, well, Vega is pandering to the Hispanic vote, but also, it's not a monolith. Democrats should know, at this point, there's not going to be universal voting for them.
Nathan Moore
And you can't just talk about immigration, either. I mean, Hispanics care about all kinds, and different things are their main issues.
Michael Pope
You know, what's interesting, also to note about Vega's personal story, is that she had a relative who the Obama administration deported. And she kind of changed her political views at that point to move toward the Republicans. And on the campaign trail, she talks about border security. So there are a lot of nuances here with candidates like Yesli Vega, who can talk to voters in a way that the old white guys can't.
Nathan Moore
Kind of zooming out just a little bit on this to the districts we're talking about. We've mentioned redistricting a little bit. This is the first congressional election in Virginia, where we're going with the new district maps after the last census. And so, Luria's district is a little bit more Republican-friendly now than it was. We've got some other shifts around the state. The fifth district is a little bit more like a regular shape and less like a salamander. But the net result, though, is that we still have only about two districts out of eleven that are competitive. Take me through the whole redistricting, it was a lot of noise and drama, and we had to call in special masters to make up this new map. What's the result of all this? Do you think it was a success?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, we basically had two competitive districts before as well. I would note in the old map. Yes. The fifth was pretty contested back in 2018 and 2020. But a reason why, especially in 2018, it was moderately contested, was because that was a blue wave year. And then, in 2020, Cameron Webb was a hell of a candidate, hell of a candidate. And then Bob Good was not a great candidate either. But the fundamentals of the district and the neutral environment were just not enough for Cameron to win. So the fifth district is somewhat similar in its current composition to the old district. And, you know, I think in a blue wave, midterm, you know, maybe Democrats can try and contest it a little bit. And then just in the way that Republicans are trying to contest Wexton, a little bit, but it's still, you know, kind of a reach. You know, when it comes to what the map looks like. It's not how I would have drawn it. But I think, you know, overall, the partisan composition, at least, for the congressional districts in Virginia, is, you know, fair, but I will say that the connected communities of interest there is there are some issues there.
Michael Pope
Can we talk about some local elections up here in northern Virginia because they are fascinating. So the Arlington County Board has an incumbent, Matt DeFerrante. So, Arlington is so bizarre; it's like going to a different planet. It's actually not a Board of Supervisors. It's called the Arlington County Board. They actually used to have a board of supervisors, and they got rid of it and they replaced it with this current system, which is bizarre. So Matt DeFerrante is currently the chairman of the Arlington County Board, and he has two challengers, both independents. And at issue here in Arlington is a zoning initiative called the missing middle, eliminating single-family zoning, which is very controversial. You know, the current that previously had been single-family zoning, you can have a duplex, a triplex, a six Plex, a seven Plex, or even an eight Plex. So the politics of the election for Matt difference is that he thinks the eight Plex goes a little bit too far. And one of the other candidates says the eight Plex is, you know, rational and perhaps even more than that, on one end, and then the other candidate is Audrey Clemente, who has run many, many times in Arlington. And she is against eliminating single-family zoning. She says it's a scheme to enrich developers. And on the campaign trail, she literally said that Arlington should vote the bums out. So that's Arlington. There's also a similar election in Herndon, where the incumbent mayor, Sheila Olin, is challenged by two current town council members. Once again, the size and scale of development are kind of on the ballot, and the incumbent mayor is more of the let's go slow, let's preserve the town community feels, and then the challengers kind of win a larger scale of development. So it is interesting, I mean, while this hasn't gotten as much attention as Luria, Kiggans or Spanberger, Vega, but the politics of zoning and the scale, the scale of development, you know, affordable housing issues, these are all on the ballot in Northern Virginia this year.
Nathan Moore
You know, I find they're not on the ballot here in Central Virginia, where I live. Those issues are everywhere right now. How do we make a housing ecosystem where people can afford to live? And here in Albemarle and Charlottesville, the housing costs have gotten very, very high, especially compared to the median income and the size of the community we live in here. So I think, you know, Charlottesville's answer has been to do a whole comprehensive plan process and try to do essentially up zoning across the whole, the whole city. It's been met with a whole lot of basically NIMBY opposition but also a lot of strong advocates for it. So, how else would our community be? I should ask it this way. Like, what are communities doing successfully around housing policy like this?
Michael Pope
Well, one thing that you know, where I live, the local city government is exploring something called a height bonus. So you know, there's currently a height limit for new development. And so what the city wants to do is exchange. So you can build a building that's higher than the height limit in exchange for delivering dedicated affordable housing units. And so as long as, like, it's a third of the units that you build must be dedicated affordable housing units, and in exchange for that, you can build a taller building than the current height limits allow. As you might imagine, there's lots of opposition to a group that formed in a specific neighborhood where they were thinking about doing this to oppose it, and the developer ended up pulling out. So I mean, this is a really hot issue right now because of all the needs around housing and affordable housing, and how does it work? And then you have developers who want to make a lot of money, too. So they are looking at the market to see where they can make money. And then the need is there. You know the ability to make a lot of money is there. So there's this tension about how big is too big?
Nathan Moore
I mean, is the rest of the state going to be able to learn anything from this kind of policy proposal?
Michael Pope
Oh, I don't know. I think, you know, as you pointed out, these issues of the demand for housing and the tension between, you know, neighborhood groups versus developers, this is not unique to Northern Virginia; this is going on everywhere. So I would imagine that the same issues are happening in your community, although they might not necessarily be on the ballot this year.
Nathan Moore
Well, you know, one of the things we talked about earlier in the show, Michael, you mentioned the Wasson Center poll, and this is something that I saw in the results, kind of looking at it generically. Virginia has got about a third of the voters in Virginia identify as conservative, very conservative, and about a third as very liberal. And about a third, something else, something in between, you know, that makes politics awfully interesting. And also sort of fickle. It makes it a very purple state, not just blue or red. But what does that mean, looking ahead to how Virginia plods along in the next, you know, few years?
Michael Pope
Well, the Wasson Center has done a lot of really interesting polling here to give us a snapshot of voters in this election cycle. One them, I was fascinated by the issues people were interested in because of the partisan breakdown. But then also, there's a relationship, I think, between, like, Republicans who are interested in crime, right? Democrats are interested in gun violence, aren't crime and gun violence kind of the same thing, but then there's a partisan difference and how people are interested in them as an election issue. So that was really interesting, a takeaway from the Wasson Center polling, and then also you got Biden so far underwater here. I mean, this is not good. I mean, just as a general maxim, when you got your incumbent president so far down in the 30s, and 40s, in terms of approval, that is not good for Democrats.
Nathan Moore
So Election day is quite soon, just a couple of weeks away; what are the key things to look for? What should we all keep our eyes peeled on?
Chaz Nuttycombe
When it comes to Virginia, obviously, we are one of the first states that have our results coming in, we count pretty fast, not Florida fast, but we count pretty fast. I think if Luria loses, you're looking at something like an R plus two or three year at bare minimum, and if Spanberger loses, you're looking at something like an R plus four or five year. I think there could be maybe scenario where she loses in an R plus three year. But I think it's going to be something like four or five points in favor of the Republicans for her to lose. So you know, Virginia and Indiana are two states that count fast and close early. So people are going to be looking at us around the country to kind of determine, as the results continue to come in, what the year is going to be looking like, how bad are the losses for the Democrats going to be? Because I do think they're going to end up losing the house. And then they're going to lose probably at least 100 state legislative seats, you know, my forte state legislatures, I think it's going to end up something like 200 overall, when you're also counting in the multi-member districts in places like New Hampshire, Vermont, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arizona. So we are still updating our forecast and preparing our final forecast for state legislatures in the US House and US Senate.; The Senate is going to be a toss-up soon enough. I think Democrats are slightly favored to hold it. But Pennsylvania is looking more and more shaky for him. And, you know, polls are tightening in places like there or Arizona. Nevada is going to be a really tough state for them to hold this year. So overall, it's interesting to see how, if and how they can mitigate their losses. But yeah, you know, I think around the country, everyone's going to be looking at Virginia on election night to figure out, okay, How big is this red wave going to be?
Michael Pope
Yeah, I concur with what Chaz just said; I think people from across the country will be looking at the races in Virginia, specifically the second, because it's the closest and the most likely in terms of a flip. And you know, what also I would say about that election in the second is that it's also going to end up being a referendum on the January 6 committee. So if Luria loses, that's going to be viewed by many people as a rejection by voters and the January 6 committee in favor of someone who, you know, wanted to spend $70 million on a forensic audit of the 2020 election. So Nathan brought up several times this issue of threats to democracy as one of the, you know, campaign, things that people are going to make, be making choices about the second congressional district there in Virginia Beach is really going to be at the forefront of this. And will be an indication, as Chaz just said, of what happens in other congressional districts, you know, that later that will decide in the night, you know, as the different time zones, the polls close in different time zones. We will know later and later, but we will have a really good indication of what's going to happen in all those congressional districts by looking at the second here in Virginia, which will end up being kind of like a bellwether, I think, for election night.
Nathan Moore
You know, it's funny when I was growing up, Ohio and Missouri were called the bellwethers all through the 1900s. And then now Virginia has the 21st-century bellwether. Well, Alana, what do you what you're last thoughts, looking ahead of the election? And the next bit, what do you take away?
Alana Bittner
It's hard to tell, but my instincts looking at this as like, well, I feel like a couple of years ago, when there was a blue wave in Virginia, I think there's this sense of like, oh, the end of History, this is just what Virginia is going to be like for the rest of eternity. And obviously, that's different from the case like this is more of a back and forth. And so yeah, I'm interested in seeing what will happen.g what will happen.
