Michael Pope

Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in Virginia politics. I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman. Before we begin, we need to welcome a new Patreon, James A. Thank you so much for supporting our work here at Transition Virginia, we really appreciate it.

Michael Pope

You know, shout out to James, we really appreciate him becoming a Patreon, and you, our listeners, help keep this thing going. So please consider becoming a Patreon for as little as a cup of coffee. Actually, you know what, they used to say for as little as a cup of coffee. But Thomas, have you been to Starbucks lately? Like can you even get a cup of coffee for $3? For only $3 a month, you can help support the work that we do here at Transition Virginia.

Thomas Bowman

Buy Michael a regular black coffee.

Michael Pope

Yes, I drink it black.

Trevor Southerland

I'll bring you some coffee from Wawa, it'll be good, don't worry.

Thomas Bowman

Okay. Well, today on the podcast, the Democratic Primary for Governor. Candidates are making their closing pitch and many voters have already cast their ballots. How is the race shaping up in the closing days of the campaign? We have a really amazing panel today to dig into it. We're joined by Transition Virginia fan favorite, returning to the podcast, Trevor Southerland.

Trevor Southerland

I am glad to be here once again to join you wonderful people on this most excellent podcast.

Michael Pope

It's good to hear your voice again, Trevor.

Thomas Bowman

More than one star now, Trevor, is that what's your does that what I'm getting out of this?

Trevor Southerland

Definitely up to like 1.75 stars. I am very proud of the work you're doing. And of course, it's wonderful that I'm back. I know everybody's happy about that.

Michael Pope

Hey, we're also joined by the indefatigable reporter for the Virginia Mercury, Graham Moomaw. Thanks for joining us, Graham.

Graham Moomaw

Yeah, thanks for having me. I'm glad to be here for the first time, I think.

Michael Pope

The first of many. So okay, well, let's get into the Democratic Primary for Governor. So now there's one candidate who's way ahead in the polls. And he's way ahead in fundraising and that's, of course, former Governor, Terry McAuliffe. Now during the third televised debate last week, Chuck Todd asked Terry McAuliffe why he wasn't yesterday's news. This is how he responded to that.

Terry McAuliffe

I'm here because the leadership of the Black Caucus of Virginia came to me and said, "Terry, no one leaned in more for the Black and Brown community that you did. More rights restoration than any Governor in the history of the United States of America, more pardons than any Governor before me, here in Virginia. You know, State Senator, President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas, the most powerful African American woman in the state said, "We need you to come back." She's now chairing my campaign. But that's why if you look today that I have three times as many support from the Black Caucus of Virginia as everybody else on this stage combined.

Michael Pope

Now, the interesting thing about that is here's a white guy, who is basically saying, "Elect me because I'm the choice of the Black Caucus." Graham, is this an argument that's going to sell with voters that want a diverse ticket? I mean, like these voters are going to be looking at the ticket, and they're going to be looking at Senator McClellan, and former Delegate Foy and Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, and they're going to be saying, "Well, McAuliffe, he's the choice of the Black Caucus." Is that going to work for voters who are interested in diversity?

Graham Moomaw

Well, that's sort of been his go to answer throughout the entire campaign to the big question of, "Why are you, as a white guy, kind of taking this rare step of coming back to run for Governor again, when we already had two accomplished Black women in the race," and he has leaned pretty heavily on his relationship with Senator Louise Lucas, to really address that question. I think he probably recognizes that it's a little bit difficult for him to explain himself, "Why, you know, why I haven't, as a white man, our, you know, should be the choice of Black voters who have this diverse ticket to choose from." But I think when he when he called Louise Lucas, you know, the most powerful African American woman in the state, that's, that has been his sort of go to to, to answer that very difficult question. That has been kind of dogging him throughout the entire campaign.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, I think that that's probably not his most compelling response, but it's probably enough to get them through the primary. In my opinion, a better answer would have been to pitch voters on all the unfinished business that he wants to tackle in a second term. You know, this is a guy who, at one point in the 2000s, was a very aggressive champion of Democrats and Democratic issues. And in 2013, for example, the Republicans, and even some Democrats, were afraid that Terry McAuliffe was going to go, you know, far left off the rails liberal. And today, we're in an era where people actually want that, over 70%, according to a CNU poll, of Virginia voters, support mainstream Democratic issues. So why is he running for Governor is an important question to answer. And it should be because of all the things that he still has left to do, in my opinion. And we're also seeing that reflected in the early vote. People are not voting early compared to previous election cycles, almost at all, which tells me, one, the electorate's not really fired up for anybody, because nobody's made a compelling argument of why they should come vote in the Primary to make them the nominee. Most of the electorate is going to be content, just voting for the Democratic nominee in November, and they just want us to nominate somebody who's not crazy. So if that's going to be the prevailing attitude, that's going to favor all the establishment choices for the statewide candidates, in my opinion. Trevor, what do you think?

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, I mean, look, I think everybody knows this is Terry McAuliffe's Primary to lose. On the actual issue we're talking about, its its representation versus validation. And that's the argument you have taking place right now. You've got Jennifer McClellan, Jennifer Carroll Foy, Justin Fairfax, three Black, either elected or former elected officials, two of them are women. They would bring representation to that office. What Terry McAuliffe is bringing is validation by having Louise Lucas, Charniele Herring, and others, speak out, be co chairs of this campaign, and support him. And so that's what he's going with. For McAuliffe here, this is a, has been a defensive Primary, and it's working. I mean, I haven't seen anybody land a body blow against him. He hasn't made any big mistakes. And he's rolled out all the big endorsements. So for McAuliffe, it's a validation argument, and it's a defensive argument of let's get through this primary, and then turn to the general. And everything we're seeing right now seems to be looking like it's working.

Michael Pope

So McAuliffe clearly has the support of the Black Caucus, but he's not himself Black. But Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, of course, is running for Governor, and he is authentically African American, and has this interesting history that's embedded in his last name, Fairfax, that kind of tells the story of Virginia history. Of course, he's been dogged by the allegations of sexual assault, that were never resolved and have been lingering out there as a cloud. And it seems like he's struggled to make a message that's resonated with voters. During that third televised debate, Chuck Todd asked him, you know, essentially, "Make the case, why are you a better candidate than all these other people on the stage," and this is how he responded to that.

Justin Fairfax

I have been proud of the work that I've done to break the ties to expand Medicaid. So now 550,000 more Virginians have health insurance as a result. Breaking the ties to make Virginia the first state in the South to legalize marijuana, also helping to lead the fight around gun violence prevention, focusing on so many of the issues that go to the heart, whether or not people are safe, secure, and have the opportunity to achieve the American dream.

Michael Pope

So unlike that first debate, when he compared himself to George Floyd, he didn't go out hard that way, talking about Emmett Till and George Floyd, and this is sort of the pivot for Fairfax. Trevor Southerland, is this an argument that's going to work? So I mean, this is kind of what he's got to campaign on, frankly, as Lieutenant Governor, this is the kind of stuff you get to do but, "I broke ties to expand Medicaid. I broke a tie to legalize marijuana." Is that something that's going to resonate with voters?

Trevor Southerland

I mean, it should, and that's why he's using it. He's been a good Lieutenant Governor. He has voted the way that the Democratic electorate wants him to vote on these ties. He has often tied himself to the Northam Administration, talking about the work the Administration has done and how, you know, showing him in those pictures with the Governor and doing things. The problem is Ralph Northam endorsed Terry McAuliffe. So Justin Fairfax, trying to tie himself to the accomplishments of the last four years, doesn't work as good when the person he's trying to tie himself to has endorsed somebody else. Justin Fairfax has good name recognition. He's been the LG. I don't know if you guys remember, but a couple years ago, he was in the news quite a lot. So people have heard his name. And that is helping him some. But he does get too aggressive sometimes. That turns a lot of people off. And he doesn't have the fundraising to get his message out. And so because of that, he's he's going to get some votes because of name rec. but I don't really see anything else happening for him there.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I would also push back on this being the most liberal administration in Virginia history. It's definitely the most liberal General Assembly in Virginia history. And certainly Fairfax and Ralph Northam have been able to take credit for a lot that the General Assembly has passed. But I would argue that the most liberal administration, at least in recent Virginia history, was Terry McAuliffe's. You know, love him, hate him, I think that is what it is. Graham, what do you think?

Graham Moomaw

I mean, I thought it was interesting that Fairfax himself brought up the sexual assault allegations and the response to them in the first debate. I mean, Sarah Rankin from the AP just had a pretty good story on this, you know, what, just why is he running given that he has that hanging over his head? And I think, you know, part of it is he just wants to prove to himself and to others that he was not, you know, beaten by that scandal and those allegations, that he is still a politician who can get up on stage and, you know, state his views, and he is not just going to slink off with his tail between his legs. And, you know, I don't think anyone is under the impression that he is going to seriously compete for the nomination. But I think part of it is for him just wanting to say, you know, continue to maintain that he's innocent, and those charges did not, you know, destroy him.

Michael Pope

Graham, do you think he's been successful in doing that?

Graham Moomaw

I don't know. I mean, the fact that the accusers have kind of, they've been fairly silent during this run, and they came forward, when it looks like, you know, Northam might resign, and he might, you know, step up to become Governor. But the whole thing just seems to have sort of faded into the background a little. But I do think there are probably a lot of voters even though, you know, we never really got to the to the bottom of the truth of those allegations that are just, you know, not willing to take a chance when that is just kind of an unresolved question.

Thomas Bowman

It's possible Fairfax is running just so he has a little bit more on his Wikipedia page one day, then these accusations. It's, in some ways, it strikes me as he's hoping he'll get a big enough percentage of the vote, that he can, like validate himself as a viable candidate in the future. Am I off base there or is that what you think too?

Graham Moomaw

That could be? I mean, I have not asked him directly whether he has any future plans after after this race if he's not successful. But yeah, I think I think part of it is, he just, he did not want that to be the defining thing that people remember about him that, you know, he's going to finish out his term and try to do make the standard jump from LG to Governor, even though you know, he's, this is a problem for his campaign.

Michael Pope

Well, one of the candidates in the race has been doing the sort of standard approach, which is Jennifer McClelland. She served time in the House, and then she served time in the Senate, and she had lots of accomplishments along the way. And now, she's struggling to get voters to listen to her and think about her. And in that third televised debate, Chuck Todd said, "Hey, look, you supported Terry McAuliffe, previously. You know why, from the mind of voters, like, you know, how is it you can say, they should elect you now, and not him?" And this is how she responded to that question.

Jennifer McClellan

Governor McAuliffe was the right Governor for that time, but Virginia is different. And the good news is we don't have to choose between the new perspective and experience because I bring both. I bring the experience of someone whose parents lived through the tyranny of Jim Crow during the Depression. And I came to the General Assembly as a 32 year old Black woman from the most Democratic district in the state, operating in a body that was mostly white Republican men over 50. And yet, I've been able to pass over 300 bills.

Michael Pope

So Jennifer McClellan has played that standard sort of game of spend years in the House, spend years in the Senate, and then go for the brass ring. Graham, what do you make of this argument that she actually is the most experienced person on the stage? Is that something that voters are gonna respond to?

Graham Moomaw

I mean, she clearly really does have, you know, the longest political resume. I mean, she has been in the General Assembly for much longer than Terry McAuliffe has even been involved in Virginia politics. But I do think it's it's a challenge to make the leap from serving the General Assembly to running for statewide office. I mean, in the House, you're representing I think around 80,000 people, in the Senate, you're representing 200,000. And it's it's a challenge to, to just, to make that leap to a statewide run. I mean, reporters know who she is, people in Richmond knows who she is. Everyone involved in the seat of government, you know, knows her as this pretty well respected legislator here, but it's just kind of a different thing to go out and introduce yourself to people who may not necessarily be paying as much attention to what goes on in state politics on a day to day basis as a lot of us do.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, it strikes me that McClellan's style is much better suited for, you know, the era of Mark Warner or Tim Kaine, where, by the way, she has experience with both of them. Jennifer McClellan, is very much a work in the background type of person, get things done, and that's why she's been able to pass over 300 bills. And the counter to that is that nobody outside of Richmond really knows who she is. And so, like, it's not fair, but I think that politics, in Virginia, has possibly moved on from that, you know, cookie cutter, establishment candidate approach, and McClellan, to her credit, is extraordinarily liberal on many things, but not necessarily on many of the things that Northern Virginia cares about these days. The rug got pulled out from under mainstream Democrats in some of these areas in 2017, and 2019. And they're struggling to keep up. Trevor, you've got a pretty unique perspective, having served in the House and watched Senator McClellan in the Senate for so many years. What, what's your thinking on her?

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, I mean, look, if you're looking for a candidate for Governor who understands the issues, who has worked the issues left, right, and center, who gets the actual sausage made and who knows how to do things, it's Jennifer McClellan. That's what she's been doing for years. She did it in the House when it was a very high Republican majority. She's done it in the Senate, in both the minority and the majority. Unfortunately, what we've seen in this race, I think, because I think it does a disservice to the voters, is we've seen a lot of national groups, and therefore a lot of the national media, look for other candidates, and look for somebody who maybe they think is, you know, shinnier than Jennifer McClellan. And so that's where we've seen sort of the limitations of her campaign, because she hasn't been able to get that reach. People see her as sort of similar to Terry McAuliffe in policy, and that's also hurt her, so she's trying to differentiate herself. But so far, the message that her campaign is sending, has not been able to get out far enough to help her break out of sort of the the place that she is restricted to in this campaign right now.

Michael Pope

So McClellan has been on the scene longer than any of these other candidates, as Graham pointed out, longer than Terry McAuliffe, even. On the opposite end of the spectrum, in terms of these candidates, is Jennifer Carroll Foy, who has been around for like a hot minute before she decided that she wanted to run for Governor. And Chuck Todd asked her about that in that third debate. "So you've been around such a short period of time, you know, what makes you think that you can be Governor?" And this is how she responded to that question.

Jennifer Carroll Foy

So many people have told me all my life that is not my time and not my turn. Millions of women out there know exactly what that feels like, having our experience undermined and our credentials questioned. But I'm not here to ask the patriarchy for permission. I'm here to get things done for the people of Virginia. And I've been one of the most effective legislators in Virginia's history.

Michael Pope

That last line about how she's one of the most effective legislators in Virginia history, she said that three times during the debate and prompted a fact check from the McClellan campaign. And they pointed out that Senator McClellan has passed 353 pieces of legislation, while Carroll Foy has passed 38, and according to the VPAP's batting averages, McClellan passed 70% of the bills she introduced in 2020, while Foy passed 59% of the bills that she introduced. So calling yourself the most effective legislator, them's fighting words, right? Trevor, what do you make of this conflict between the Foy campaign and the McClellan campaign on the language of being the most effective legislator?

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, I mean, I think the facts are in Jennifer McClellan's favor here for sure, if you're looking at comparing the two of them. Jennifer Carroll Foy was a delegate for one full term before she resigned. You know, she was not in office during the 2021 Session when there was a lot to get done. And I think that's something that works against her. What Jennifer Carroll Foy's whole campaign has been about, has been about trying to inoculate her from the fact that she is inexperienced, from the fact that she hasn't done a lot in elected office. And so they're trying to inoculate her by that by having her go out and say the things about, "I've been told no," by making sure to start with, you know, going after the patriarchy, going after the white men that have run Virginia's political establishment. And so she inoculates herself from some of the attacks by getting that out there, and then it makes it harder, quite frankly, for four white guys like us, to talk about her in her campaign, because she's already put out there that we are going to be the people working against her. So why should anyone listen to us, even if we might have valid points on some issues? So that's what she's done. You see it again, with this statement. I saw somebody say it online. You know, she probably got a poll that said, voters were worried about her inexperience. So now this is the line she's, you know, the most experienced, most accomplished, most whatever. It's not true. But it's a good soundbite. And it'll make for a good tweet. So there you go.

Graham Moomaw

Yeah, I think that claim is also interesting in the context of her decision to step down from the House to focus solely on her run for Governor. That was controversial at the time, because it left a semi competitive House seat open the Democrats had to defend, and for her to come out and say, "I'm I'm the most effective legislator in Virginia history," when McClellan was actually in the General Assembly in the 2021 session, you know, making these big pushes on a lot of big policy areas, like the Voting Rights Act, whereas Carroll Foy had just decided to, to step back from that. I think that that's important context for that. But the flip side of her removing herself from the legislature is, she was able to raise money. She wasn't limited by the in session fundraising ban. And I think that has helped her make another controversial claim that this is a two person race, that she's the only person who has shown the seriousness and the resources and the money to really give McAuliffe a serious challenge.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, Jennifer Carroll Foy's line that people are telling her, "It's not her time and not her turn," I mean, is not an accurate portrayal of what people are saying. It's not about whether it's her time, it's about the fact she just hasn't put in the work, especially compared to Jennifer McClellan, or even Terry McAuliffe here. She simply lied about her record, that's the only appropriate word. And she also, in the last couple of weeks, lied about a nayrol endorsement, not once, but twice, did she push it out on social media. So I'm actually one of the people who advised against her running for Governor as far back as 2018. This has been in her head for a long time. And I actually suggested that she might be a better candidate for AG. And I didn't say that because I don't want her to be Governor, I said that because I do, or I did, I should say, want her to be Governor back in 2018, and there was a better route to do it, that would cultivate her career. But instead, she heard another white male telling her, "No," and I think that kind of speaks to the ego we're dealing with. And she also fired her campaign team very early on, when they told her she did not have a path to victory for Governor, but could have a path to victory for Lieutenant Governor, which they had been recommending that she ran for. And so you know, once again, the ego, the lies, and the ethical issues, I completely retract any support that I've ever given to Foy. I don't think she should be in Virginia politics at all anymore.

Trevor Southerland

And I'm not sure the you know, Graham brought up how when she resigned, she did it so she could focus on her fundraising. I'm not sure her fundraising has been all that impressive, if you eliminate one household near Charlottesville. Her fundraising has been running in line with other candidates like Jennifer McClellan, if you eliminate her her one megadonor. So, you know, I'm not even sure that was a good thing, a good reason to do. Not only has it hurt her here, but she didn't even capitalize on it.

Michael Pope

For our listeners that might not know what you're talking about, explain what you're talking about, about this mega donor from Charlottesville.

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, so Jennifer Carroll Foy has been supported by both Michael Bills and his wife, Sonya Smith. They are Democratic mega donors from Charlottesville. They have at least one political action committee. I think they may be up to two or three now, that they are doing to help influence Democratic politics in a way that they see as favorable to themselves. And Jennifer Carroll Foy has been their chosen candidate for Governor. And they have given over a million dollars now, as of the last reporting to her.

Michael Pope

Okay, well, playing devil's advocate. Okay, so what's wrong with that? Graham, I know you've done some reporting on this. So I think a lot of people would say, "Okay, so here's the this group, they okay, they're rich, they're mega donors, but they want to counter the influence of Dominion. Is there a problem with that?" What's...Graham, explain to us the significance of the money from Clean Virginia here?

Graham Moomaw

I think the problem a lot of people see is it's kind of hard to pitch yourself as a, you know, a campaign finance reformer and someone who wants to get big money out of politics, if you're willing to take a $500,000 check from one source. I think it's just the, the amount of money that we're talking about, just rubs people the wrong way. It raises questions about, you know, if if she were to become Governor, how indebted is she going to be to this one donor who has played such a major role in helping her run? And just just back to the point about McClellan and Carroll Foy, comparing their respective records, I think, you know, that was probably the McAuliffe people probably love to see that that was sort of the the takeaway from the third debate, that you've got, you know, the two Black women in the race kind of at each other's throats comparing the bills they have or haven't passed, while McAuliffe just had another easy night and nobody really landed any shots on him, and is just continuing to be the front runner.

Michael Pope

And turning his attention to Youngkin. Every question, almost every question, he pivoted to attacking Youngkin. So like, from the viewers point of view, it looked like McAuliffe had already won the the Primary, where you got these other candidates, they were fighting against themselves. Alright, so we're gonna take a break. And when we come back, we're going to take a look at the improbable candidacy of Delegate Lee Carter. We're also going to wrap it up and look at the politics of this primary heading into Election Day. We're joined by Graham Moomaw and Trevor Southerland. We'll be right back.

And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about the Democratic Primary for Governor. Now before the commercial break, we were talking about one candidate who had received a significant amount of money from a mega donor. Now on the other end of the spectrum, is a candidate who has not received much money, certainly not from any mega donors, and that's Delegate Lee Carter. In fact, this is part of his whole campaign is against that way of thinking about politics. And, of course, he is a socialist. And in that third televised debate, Chuck Todd asked him, "Okay, so you're a socialist, and you want voters to elect you, Governor?" And his response to that was, "Well, yeah, I'm a socialist. And yes, they're gonna call me a socialist, but you know what, they would call anybody a socialist. They would even call Joe Biden a socialist, and he's certainly not a socialist." Carter also made a really interesting argument about you know, if you put Terry McAuliffe at the top of the ticket, are voters really going to be excited about Terry McAuliffe? And this is what Lee Carter had to say about that.

Lee Carter

Are people who have been fighting against the Mountain Valley Pipeline and Atlantic Coast Pipeline for the last six or seven years, gonna to be excited to vote for the guy who approved those pipelines? Of course, they're not. Are people who are struggling to pay the rent because the Amazon deal jacked up the price of their housing, gonna to be excited to vote for any of the four candidates that supported it? Of course they're not. Are people who care about getting money out of politics going to be excited to vote for a corporate funded candidate? Of course they're not.

Michael Pope

Graham, is Lee Carter influencing the debates? I think there are a lot of people who feel like his presence in this conversation has pushed the candidates to the left of where they would have been, had Carter not been in the race. Is that a fair way to think about it?

Graham Moomaw

I don't know. I don't know that there's any one particular issue that he is he is moving everyone around to his way of thinking on. I mean, it's fair to say that I mean, that he was putting in bills to repeal the death penalty and legalize marijuana before, you know, the whole party decided in unison, that those were things worth doing. But, you know, I think, I think a lot of people see his run as maybe just a way to, like you said, elevate his voice in the party and just have a bigger platform for his ideas, because he does see himself as kind of a lone voice for sort of the anti corporate, fighting for the little guy, type of viewpoint. But I do think some people have been a little surprised by just how comfortable he seems in these debates. I mean, he routinely brings, you know, every question, he brings his answer back to his view of sort of this populist message of fighting for the little guy versus the ruling class. But at the end of the day, you know, especially with Glenn Youngkin, as the Republican nominee, I think a lot of Democrats to Chuck Todd's question, you know, see the the danger in, you know, nominating someone who identifies as a socialist, who is one of the only Democrats in Virginia who believes, "defund the police" is a good policy, that it would be maybe not the best idea to put him up against a Republican who's going to be a strong contender.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, his point about the Republicans will call any of the nominees a socialist, anyway, is a good one. And I like that he is not afraid. I like that he just kind of leans in, he's willing to take a punch on the chin, because he's gonna punch back. I don't know that he's able to run the most effective campaign, due to his lack of fundraising, which means he can't really get his message out. But at the same time, he's got an incredibly active Twitter following that kind of gets his message out for him. And he did land at least one good punch on Terry, in my opinion. And that was when he hit Terry for shoveling out money to Amazon and Nestle, which was later accused of utilizing slave labor, child slave labor at that. And the fundamental problem in Virginia, is that Virginia is the home, nationwide, of the establishment, you know, the D.C. influencers live in Northern Virginia, often, elected officials all live in Virginia, often, the CEOs of major headquarters live in Virginia, often. And so what we've seen throughout history is that the populist candidate, or the anti establishment candidate, has a ceiling of like, 30%, there's just not enough voters motivated to come out and vote for a candidate like Lee Carter. And to be fair to Lee, there's never really been a candidate, like Lee Carter, at least since Henry Howell, over a generation ago at this point. And so I'm glad he's in it. I'm glad he's able to make the points that he's making, because it's making a lot of the other candidates think. He's giving better responses than pretty much anybody else in the debate. But ultimately, it's just not going to be enough. And I don't think anything's really gonna stick. And Graham, to your point, it hasn't really moved Terry to the left. He's kind of just been hanging out in a moderate lane. Don't be offensive to Republicans who are turned off by what the National Party is doing. But I do think that some of that strategy gets flipped on its head now that they've nominated Glenn Youngkin, who's probably about as close to Mitt Romney as the Virginia Republicans could find. Trevor, you have extensive experience dealing with Lee Carter in the House. What is your thinking on him?

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, I mean, first off, Thomas, I want to thank you for giving Henry Howell a shout out because ever since that first LG forum or debate, nobody's really brought Henry Howell up for some reason. So I'm really glad that you did. Just big shout out to Henry Howell. But, here's the thing about Lee Carter, and I, you know, people think of me as some establishment guy and they think I wouldn't like Lee Carter, whatever. I really liked Lee Carter. Lee's a good guy, he's an honest guy. He's in this for the right reason. He is honest about what he does and doesn't believe. And sometimes I think that hurts him. Because, look, he has done some good in the House. He's passed some good legislation. He always represents his viewpoint. And he represents a group of working people that are not very well represented in the House. You know, and so I like that. People online who were making fun of him for doing this from his bedroom, you know what, that's just...

Thomas Bowman

Classist.

Trevor Southerland

Well, it's quite frankly, it's just bullshit because so many people in Virginia and Lee Carter census, that's how they've been working for the last year.

Michael Pope

For listeners that might not have seen this debate, it was virtual. And so you know, the candidates were doing it from their home. And so like Justin Fairfax was in front of a bookshelf, and Terry McAuliffe was in his expensive home office. And, you know, McClellan had a painting behind her. Lee Carter had a bed behind him. So he was doing it from his bedroom. And I actually hadn't seen that people were just on Twitter, people were making fun of him for doing it from his bedroom. Yeah, to be expected. Right. But but that's, I see your point that like, this is how a lot of people have been working for the past year, out of their bedrooms.

Trevor Southerland

And here's the thing, Lee Carter's bed was made, it was well made. It wasn't a messy bed.

Michael Pope

But now wait a second. He is a marine. Right? And I was surprised, I was surprised a little bit, because that bed should have been made better.

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, well, you know, you gotta...he's been out for a little while.

Thomas Bowman

So he's also a father of four.

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, a father of four. And here's the thing he had, he had a dresser that's from IKEA. You know what, so do I. Get over it. A lot of us in our mid 30s have dressers from IKEA, because of all the crap and all the recession's that our generation has gone through. So it's just, it's a pathetic thing to go after him for that. But to get back to the point, Lee Carter is good on policy. He knows what he's talking about. He can, next to Jennifer McClellan, he is the next best person to get in the weeds, if you want to talk about policy. For my generation and younger, we do not look at the word, "socialist," as bad as some of the generations before us do. So that word hurts him with some of the older generations. But the other thing that hurts him is that rather than just being left wing, rather than just being super progressive, he is socialist. And so he goes to things like workers, co Ops, and workers owning the factories they work in, and things like that. People in general do not understand that concept. So it turns them off, because they have been brought up in this capitalist society. And they just don't see that, you know. They don't see, a lot of them, giving tax breaks to Amazon as a bad thing, because Amazon is bringing jobs. And so Lee Carter's points are sometimes very well taken, but they sometimes get missed, because he takes such a hard socialist answer to them, rather than just a left wing answer.

Thomas Bowman

All right, well, what we should probably do is figure out if any of these candidates won the debate. And by the way, I am somebody who thinks that anybody watching these debates most likely already has their mind made up, or potentially has already voted. It's really just a cheerleading section. However, Graham, you've been covering this. And is there anybody who performed better than the rest this time? And is was there a clear winner?

Graham Moomaw

Well, like I said earlier, I mean, this is not a, you know, commentary on debate specific debate performances, but I think when McAuliffe is is ahead of the field by that much, if he comes out of the debate without any major gaffe, or any searing moment, you know, similar to the Joe Biden versus Kamala Harris on busing and school segregation moment from the 2020 presidential debates, that's that's a win for McAuliffe. And, you know, I really, after watching three of these things, I don't know that there has been any sort of major problem to arise from McAuliffe from any of them. So, you know, that's not that's not to say that the other four have not, you know, performed well, in the debates. I think they they have, but I don't, if you're not landing shots on McAuliffe, and not, you know, taking him down a peg, like I really don't, don't think it moves the needle that much.

Thomas Bowman

Michael, what did you think?

Michael Pope

You know, one thing that struck me about the three debates that have happened is that the first one was so consequential and sort of attention grabbing, and the other two have not been, right? I mentioned earlier this bit about like Fairfax, he came out so strong out of the gate. And he didn't do that for debate two. And he didn't do that for the debate three. And you know, Graham earlier mentioned the Sarah story about like, why is Fairfax running? I mean, I that's actually, if you think about the three debates as an arc, that's the most interesting arc is for me, is that Fairfax came out so sort of strong against Terry McAuliffe, comparing himself to Emmett Till and George Floyd, which, of course, grabbed a lot of attention, made a lot of headlines, made a splash out of that first debate. He didn't do that for debate two. He didn't do that for debate three. Graham, why do you think that is?

Graham Moomaw

I don't know that. That's an interesting question. But I think, back to Sarah's story, it just goes back to you know, why, why is he running? I mean, the more interesting question to me is, why are McClellan and Carroll Foy not going at McAuliffe harder than they than they have? I mean, I think some of the some of the takeaways from this last debate were, were Carter's attacks on McAuliffe over Amazon and Nestle. But I do, I, that's something that I'm wondering, is just why why is Lee Carter the only one really going at McAuliffe aggressively in the third debate? And I really I don't really know the answer to that question.

Michael Pope

Well, there there was some language. So you know, Terry McAuliffe's whole thing is, "I'm big and bold," right? And so there was some language where the other candidates were taking that on, there was a point when Carroll Foy said something to the effect of, "Well, I'll be bolder." And and I think McClellan even said something about, you know, "It's not bold, it's old," you know, so like, they were kind of going after McAuliffe. But then after the debate was over with, there was this back and forth between the Foy the Foy camp and the McClellan camp, which to your point, really does benefit McAuliffe, because McAuliffe looks like he's already in the general election campaign, attacking Glenn Youngkin, whereas Foy and McClellan are going after each other, which of course, benefits McAuliffe. So, I mean, it's, I think a lot of people might be asking themselves, is this thing over? Like, we're not even at the primary yet? And it almost seems like the primary campaign is kind of done already.

Thomas Bowman

Trevor, what did you think?

Trevor Southerland

Yeah, I mean, like, I think every single debate has, has pretty much had three winners in different things. Jennifer McClellan has won when it comes to the actual debate, the actual policies. Lee Carter has won, because he has advanced himself. And he has shown a lot of people who might have thought that he was crazy, that he's actually really knowledgeable. So I think he's done a lot to improve his standing. And Terry McAuliffe has won, because no one has hurt him in any of these debates. Now, I don't know, I think two debates ago, Carroll Foy went after him quite a bit, but it came off as wildly swinging at him. It was, you know, not coordinated. It was not about policy. It was just, "Oh, I'm going to go after Terry, to try to get some headlines or something." And so Terry has survived these debates well. I think we're gonna see him win the election, probably. But for McClellan and Carroll Foy, and to a lesser extent, the other candidates in the race, I wonder how much of this is turned into a proxy for 2025? Because that's what we're looking at next, who's going to be the nominee in four years? Is it going to be the potential LG, or is it going to be somebody else? So maybe some of this is setting up for that, for which one of them finishes highest, and therefore possibly becomes the front runner for 25?

Michael Pope

Well, to that point, Trevor, have any of them set them...So have any of these candidates, who are not McAuliffe, set themselves up to run again, four years from now?

Trevor Southerland

Well, I mean, look, Jennifer McClellan didn't give up her seat in the Assembly. So she's still going to be in the Senate, she's going to have possibly a little bit higher of a platform now that she's run. She hasn't gone after Terry in a mean way. So Terry still likely going to work with her as Governor. So you see Jennifer McClellan having that opportunity to continue to voice herself. Jennifer Carroll Foy, this, again, is another downside of her resigning her seat in the House. She has no place to go now. I don't know what she does for the next four years. And so that's sort of the the real downside for her.

Thomas Bowman

Well you know, the most relevant opinion here is what does Twitter think? So we actually asked the same question. We actually asked the same question on Twitter.

Trevor Southerland

Thomas, I always told the Caucus, "All that matters is what Twitter thinks. Always listen to Twitter."

Thomas Bowman

I know, it's it's the real world. But we asked this question on the @TransitionVA twitter handle and here is what Twitter thinks. With almost 400 votes in just one hour, thanks to a retweet by Lee Carter, 93% of those voters believe that Big Lee Carter won that debate, and he did have a good showing. 2% for the Macker, 2% for Jennifer McClellan, and 3% for Jennifer Carroll Foy. So, and by the way, there was a decent reply to that who, the ghost of Molly McGuire said, "Honestly, it doesn't matter at all. All media coverage focused on McAuliffe, so that's who people will remember and vote for. And they're the ones who really decide under capitalism." Well, you know, yeah, to that point. Yeah. I think the outcome is probably an accurate read, right? Like everybody's focused on McAuliffe, this is McAuliffe to lose. As long as nothing's sticking to him, as long as there's no scandals, as long as nobody's really ginning up voters to come out and vote in the primary, because there's nobody voting early, it's Terry's. Right? So that's what Twitter thinks. And thank you for the retweet, Delegate Lee Carter.

Michael Pope

Before we end this podcast, Graham, give us a preview here of what readers of Virginia Mercury can read in the upcoming days heading into the Primary? What- how are you going to be putting all these pieces together for kind of a global look at this primary as we head toward Election Day?

Graham Moomaw

So yeah, so I'm going to try to get out there and, you know, shadow some of these candidates as they start doing more in person events with COVID restrictions starting to be lifted. And I think after the Republican Convention, I think a lot more people are kind of tuning in and waking up to the fact that you know, there is an election happening this year. So sort of the big picture lens that I see, you know, a lot of this fitting into is the question facing Democratic voters is, what kind of experience matters, whose experience matters. You've got McAuliffe's pitch, you know, basically boils down to, "I was Governor before. I can do it again. Trust me with the job a second time." With McClellan her pitch is, "I have the most experience in the legislature pushing on bills, I have the most policy knowledge. That's what should matter when you're looking for a Governor." With Carroll Foy, a lot of it is just her personal story, "My experience as someone growing up in the city of Petersburg, becoming one of the first Black women at VMI." She's basically running on her her personal background and says, "The experience of actually living the struggle of you know, working class families, that's what should matter most." With Fairfax, a lot of it is, you know, "I as the Lieutenant Governor, I've actually run statewide, I've earned the votes of, you know, 1.5 million Virginians before. And therefore, I'm the guy you should go with." Lee, Lee is running less on experience than just, you know, "I am the only uniquely different candidate in this race. Everybody else is, you know, your typical politician," and back to the point about him doing the debate from his bedroom, I think that played right into his hands that he's, he's a normal guy kind of swimming in this sea of wealthy people and attorneys and sort of telling it like it is. So I think that's sort of the big picture lens that I'm going to be looking at, as I head out to talk to people. And I'm also just interested in just how much or how much are people paying attention?

Michael Pope

Trevor, any other thoughts here about this primary as it comes to a close?

Trevor Southerland

No, I mean, I think it's gonna be really interesting to see what the final percentages come out to be. We haven't seen a ton of public polling on this race. I think we all know where it's going. But the question is, where do the percentages come out? How many, you know, votes does Lee Carter get? Where does Justin Fairfax's name recognition, get him to? And so I think it's going to be really interesting to see, it doesn't seem like there have been a lot of votes cast so far. So it's possible that, you know, there's still some place for movement. But it'll be, it'll be interesting to see what the final numbers are. So we'll be waiting and watching.

Michael Pope

You mentioned that earlier that we haven't seen a lot of early voting. Do you think that's because people don't know how they're going to vote?

Trevor Southerland

I think it's possible. I also think, you know, in the LG race, which is very crowded, I think some people might be holding their votes back in that one, because they haven't heard a lot about it yet. Possibly, they're waiting to see if the field happens to condense anymore here in the last couple of weeks, or if anybody really sort of stands out. Maybe they're waiting on that. Maybe they're just holding back to make sure nothing, nothing drastic happens. I'm not sure. But I think it's just you know, we're coming off a really emotionally charged election in 2020. We're finally getting on the right side of COVID. So you know, I think it might just be a little lower than folks were expecting. But I do think there's still going to be that momentum in the fall where you're going to see a good turnout, because you're going to be faced with Democrat versus Republican and those are going to be your two big options, and the Republicans have endorsed a far right Trumpist. So that's going to be the options and we'll we'll see what happens.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, we'll definitely see what happens. My suspicion is Terry comes in with a minimum of 40%. It's an open question if he can surpass 50%. But I just, I think this is going to be an extraordinarily low turnout election because the electorate, at least the electorate that will vote in November, just doesn't really care. There's more than one good choice for LG, and the party is going to nominate somebody. They may not really have a strong preference for AG. And they just assume it's going to be Terry. So like, without that motivating factor, I think people are just holding their powder until November.

Michael Pope

I have a totally selfish thought about what I want to happen on election night and has nothing to do with politics. It has everything to do with actual events. I know a lot of campaign people listen to our podcast. Campaign people, please have an actual event that I can go to, and get out of my house, and see some speeches, and talk to people in person. And, you know, I, I actually have been talking to some campaign people about like, what is the expectation on election night, here locally, not necessarily statewide people, but there's a city council race where I live. There's a very competitive Democratic Primary for the Alexandria City Council. They've got no clue what they're doing on election night. Graham, have you heard any talk about a statewide Democratic event where people are anywhere in person giving speeches, that sort of thing?

Graham Moomaw

I haven't heard anything. I think campaigns are now that the, like I said, the COVID restrictions are being lifted, you know, a lot of them are sensitive to the fact that it's, it's just not a good look to show up with a big crowd of people. Right. So now that that some of that stuff is easing up, and it's nice outside, I think more of them are going to be trying to go do more in person stuff. Because, you know, it's it's one thing to have a Zoom meeting with, like the local Democratic Committee, but it's it's another thing entirely to have, like real, in person, campaign events. And like you said, Michael, that's been kind of a challenge for me covering it, in that that kind of takes away your ability to go talk to you know, normal people about how they're feeling about things.