Jon Baliles: The Richmond Mayor Race
John Baliles (former Richmon City Councilman, advisors to Mayors Wilder and Stoney, and author of RVA 5x5 Substack) joins Michael to discuss the candidates for Richmond's mayoral election, which has a unique structure that requires the winning candidate to win 5 of 9 districts to avoid a runoff.
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope. And this is Pod Virginia, a podcast that's taking a look at the election for mayor of Richmond. Incumbent mayor Levar Stoney is leaving city hall after two terms. It's an open seat, and five candidates are on the ballot. Today, we're joined by the best person to help us understand the candidates and the issues. He previously worked for Mayor Wilder, and then he was on the city council. After that, he worked for Mayor Stoney; he even ran for mayor himself in 2016. He's the author of a great Substack called RVA 5x5, Jon Baliles. Thanks for coming on Pod Virginia.
Jon Baliles
Thank you, Michael. Glad to be here.
Michael Pope
Great. So, this is an open seat with five candidates. Before we get into the individual candidates, give us the contours of the election. What will voters be determining when they go to the polls in November?
Jon Baliles
Well, one thing to point out that's often overlooked is that we are electing not only a president and a US Senator but also a mayor, all the city council races, and all the school board races. The ballot is going to be full this Fall. We are potentially looking at a complete change in city government.
Michael Pope
The mayor is kind of the figurehead or somebody who gives direction, right? So when voters elect a mayor this year, they're going to be determining the future of the city, right?
Jon Baliles
Well, they are. And since elections were changed in 2004, to the direct election of the mayor from the old Council-manager form of government. The mayor is the elected head of the city, and that was approved by 80% of the people in a referendum in 2003. The mayor leads the city, but the chief administrative officer runs the day-to-day operations; the mayor is more than a figurehead. However, he is limited in his powers when running City Hall, which is the CAO's job. Not only could we potentially have a new mayor, well we definitely will have a new mayor; we could also potentially have a new chief administrative officer as well. As I mentioned, we'll be getting new city council people and new school school board members, so the churn could be significant.
Michael Pope
The churn could be significant. The future of Richmond is on the ballot. Before we get into the candidates, I have one more question about the mechanics. Richmond has a very unique, distinct, interesting, one-of-a-kind system for electing mayors; explain this thing where the successful candidate has to win five of the nine districts. How does that work?
Jon Baliles
It's kind of our own mini Electoral College at the presidential level. There are nine city council districts, and to be elected mayor, you have to win five. You don't have to win a majority in five districts; you just have to be in first place. So, with five candidates, it's very possible that somebody could get five of nine districts and get elected. It's also possible that you have a runoff in which nobody wins five districts; then there'd be a second election in mid-December, in which you would also have to win five of nine districts. But it would only be between the top two vote getting candidates. It's kind of complicated but kind of fun.
Michael Pope
That's why we're talking about it on Pod Virginia. Let's start with the candidate who has raised the most amount of money, more than half a million dollars. Campaign finance records show he's raised $573,000. He is the founder of a non-profit community development loan fund called Bridging Virginia, which is designed to attract capital to underserved communities. Tell us a little bit about Harrison Roday.
Jon Baliles
Well, Harrison is somewhat new to the political scene locally, although he did work for Tim Kaine in 2012. He considers Senator Kaine his role model, and he was born in Henrico; he grew up there. He went to William and Mary, and he worked as an intern in the White House for Joe Biden when he was vice president. Then, he went to New York and worked in investment banking; he lived there for a while. He also started a software company with some friends and sold it. He's also been working with a group called the Management Roundtable, which is a group of business leaders and influencers that discuss and talk about the challenges and opportunities facing the region. He's also on some boards of non-profits, as you mentioned, Bridging Virginia, which he started in 2020. They serve and help get capital to a lot of small businesses and underserved communities.
Michael Pope
I think he really made a splash by having these really large fundraising numbers. $573,000—that's the most money of any of these candidates. How did he accomplish that?
Jon Baliles
I think he's very well connected in financial circles; I believe I'm not exactly positive. I believe a lot of the money came from friends and business associates that he had in New York. So, a lot of the money is from out of state; I'm not sure how much. But when Stoney ran, he had a lot of money coming from out of state both times. That's not unusual these days. But it is significant. I believe two of the local big names that have given to him are the CEO Genworth and Jim Ukrop have donated a lot of money to his campaign.
Michael Pope
Can he win five of the nine districts? This is something that, obviously, all the candidates are going to need to grapple with. Does he have the ability to win in five of those nine districts?
Jon Baliles
Well, anything's possible in politics, as you well know. With that much money, if you spend it wisely, get your name out, and have a good ground game, you can become known. When Stoney ran in 2016, not many people knew who he was. He worked for Terry McAuliffe, Governor McAuliffe, but he wasn't very well known locally. But he had a lot of money, and he shook a lot of hands. So it's possible with that amount of money.
Michael Pope
What's the thumbnail description for Harrison Roday?
Jon Baliles
A couple of keywords and phrases I'll give you for each of the candidates that we're going to talk about. In Roday's case, his theme is a city that works for everyone. He talks about the need for change, as well as opportunity for everyone. Those are subtitle themes from his campaign so far.
Michael Pope
Our next candidate has also raised more than half a million dollars, $526,000 to be specific. Those are two candidates in this race for mayor who have raised more than half a million dollars. Big money in the election cycle this year. This next candidate is a former Commissioner of the Virginia Department of Social Services in the Youngkin administration. He was director of the Richmond and Henrico health districts. He was also the COVID-19 vaccine coordinator, a job some people call the vax-tsar for Governor Northam during the pandemic. He's currently a Pediatric Hospitalist at the Chippenham Hospital, Jon Baliles, tell us a little bit about Danny Avula.
Jon Baliles
Danny has been around Richmond for a long time. He and his wife live in Churchill, they have five kids. His wife is an elementary school teacher at Richmond Public Schools. He's got a stellar medical resume; he went to UVA for undergrad, MCV for med school, and he has a master's in public health, I believe from Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. As you mentioned, he worked at the Richmond Henrico Health District, ran that for six years, and was appointed by Governor Northam in 2021 to lead the COVID-19 response across Virginia. If you recall, Virginia kind of fumbled out of the gate with that one. Things were kind of a mess. Danny came in, and kind of took it over and put Richmond, or put Virginia rather, among the top 10 states for people vaccinated. He was widely praised and became well-known for that effort. He's gotten other awards, such as Top Doctor, and he was named Richmonder of the Year 2020 by Style Weekly in 2020 when we were dealing with COVID-19. I believe it was 2022 or 2023; I can't remember the exact year Governor Youngkin appointed him to head the State Department of Social Services. He was there until he announced his candidacy a couple months ago.
Michael Pope
It's interesting how his profile so similarly matches Governor Northam's profile in terms of being a professional in the health field. Northam was a pediatric neurologist, and Avula was a Pediatric Hospitalist. So there's a lot of overlap there, even to the extent that Avula was the vax-tsar for Northam during the pandemic. Although Northam was an Eastern Shore guy, not a Richmond City politics guy, is that going to play in Richmond?
Jon Baliles
I think it will; he does have a relatively well-known profile because of his medical involvement. There'll be a lot of upset families if he gets elected because he won't be practicing medicine. But he's been involved in the community for a long time. I do see a lot of excitement when I talk to people about his candidacy. People that know him like him, and they are supporting him. They're very enthusiastic. And he's just an upbeat kind of guy. He's that way; it's his personality.
Michael Pope
Where is his center of power? If you have to win five of nine districts, where is he strong? Where does he need to put in a little more effort to get elected?
Jon Baliles
Again, like with Harrison, he's got enough money. His center of power is the Treasury. They will both probably continue to match almost dollar for dollar. They will probably end up raising a million, maybe $1.2M each. With that kind of money, your power center is spending your money wisely and getting a good ground game.
Michael Pope
What's your thumbnail description for Danny Avula?
Jon Baliles
Well, Danny's theme is fighting for a thriving city and some of the other sub-themes that he talks about as a proven leader. He wants a healthier Richmond, not just physically but operationally.
Michael Pope
Our next candidate has raised $224,000. That's basically half as much as the other candidates we were just talking about. She is the founder of Help Me Help You, a non-profit that aims to help formerly incarcerated people return to their communities. She's a former ninth district city council member and the first Black woman to serve as Richmond City Council President. This is her second campaign for mayor. She was a candidate for mayor back in 2016 when you were also a candidate Jon Baliles. Tell us a little bit about Michelle Mosby.
Jon Baliles
Michelle was elected to the council in 2012, the same year I was elected. I served with her for four years. As you mentioned, she was the first Black woman president of the council during the last two years of her term. She's a small business owner, she owns a hair salon, and she's also a realtor. She ran in 2016, and a lot of people thought she might run in 2020. But she has decided to wait until now. Regarding the number that you mentioned, the $224,000, I will just point out one thing about that, that can be a little deceiving as a lot of Michelle's contributions so far are in-kind contributions. There's nothing wrong with that; that's typical. It's just the $224,000, which is not a cash number. There's been a lot of in-kind donations. However, the positive side of that, from my understanding, is that Michelle's got a pretty good ground game. Those in-kind donations are sometimes better than actual dollars because they get you handshakes and they get you meetings with influential people. Michelle has a lot of influence and endorsements from pastors and churches all over the city. And they are very influential. So, $224,000 is not all cash, but it is having a positive effect, at least from what I hear about her ground game. Any type of contribution is very valuable.
Jon Baliles
Michelle Mosby is a Black woman, the first Black woman to serve as the city council president. She's running against two white guys and an Indian guy. Does the fact that she is the first Black woman to be the City Council President help her on the campaign trail in a city like Richmond?
Jon Baliles
Until about 10 days ago, I would have said, I'm not sure what effect it would have. But now that Harris is at the top of the presidential ticket, you see Michelle talking about that a lot on Facebook. I think that's going to be a theme at many levels this year; I think that'll help her. Her knowledge of City Hall is good. It's better than maybe everybody but Andreas, who we'll talk about next. She does have the ground game. She's got some influential endorsement. She's got former mayor Dwight Jones. She's got Delegate McQuinn, Dolores McQuinn. Seventh District Councilwoman Cynthia Newbille has endorsed her and former city council President Kathy Graziano. So she's got some people of influence supporting her. The other supporter of note is former Chief Administrative Officer Selena Cuffee-Glenn, who was hired by Dwight Jones when Michelle and I were on the city council. She was there until 2019. She was let go by Mayor Stoney after an incident about hiring her daughter on the city payroll. She's endorsing Michelle. It makes you wonder if Michelle has plans to change things in terms of the way City Hall runs. So we'll see.
Michael Pope
You mentioned the ground game. I'm curious about the dynamics of winning five of the nine districts. Does she have a leg up over the other candidates in this race for mayor?
Jon Baliles
Well, like I mentioned, the money's a challenge. As far as recognition goes, Michelle is better known in the eighth and ninth districts in Southside. She represented the Ninth and is well known in the Eighth District, which is right next door. It's just a question of, can she? If she can't get five districts, can she get enough votes to finish second? That's the real key because you could win two districts but finish third in the voting tally. And you wouldn't be in the runoff. So it's complicated and a little scary. But you don't know. There are three months to go. So, the ground game in the last couple of months is when it counts the most.
Michael Pope
We definitely have you back to talk about the runoff if that happens.
Jon Baliles
You never know.
Michael Pope
What's your thumbnail for Michelle Mosby.
Jon Baliles
Her tagline is Better Together Richmond. She also frequently talks about how she is committed to changing Richmond's narratives. I haven't seen or been to any events with her other than a couple of forums. She also talks about her entrepreneurial endeavors with the salon, the foundation, and her real estate career.
Michael Pope
Our next candidate has raised almost $100,000. He's currently the first district representative on the Richmond City Council, where he has served since being first elected in 2016. He is the owner of Pure Fitness RVA in Scotts Addition. He's also an adjunct professor at the University of Virginia School of Public Policy. Jon Baliles tell us a little bit about Andreas Addison.
Jon Baliles
Andreas has a really inspiring American story. He grew up in poverty in the Shenandoah Valley. He left school when he was, I think, in the sixth grade to help take care of his brother. He homeschooled himself for a while before he got back to school and went to work at a young age to help put food on the table. He got a degree from Virginia Tech and moved to Richmond. I went to work for Wilder in early 2008 the beginning of 2008, and he came into City Hall about a month or so later. I've known him for a long time. He was a management analyst at Public Works. He transitioned through several roles in his career there. Then, he ran in 2016 for the first district council seat, the one that I used to serve, and got elected at the end of 2016. He's been around the city in many capacities.
Michael Pope
I'm curious about where his center of power is. Can he win in five of the nine districts?
Jon Baliles
Well, I think his biggest challenge right now is money. Andreas is a big advocate for safe streets and public transit. He's running on a campaign of, or a lens rather, of racial and economic justice. As you mentioned, he owns a gym in Scott's addition, and he was the subject of several articles where he unfortunately experienced the pain that is the city's permitting system. He signed a lease for a building, and then it took him forever to get his permits. A gym is not exactly complicated; it's not a medical facility with lots of different moving parts. A gym, you would think, wouldn't take that long to get permits. But he unfortunately experienced how difficult it can be for small businesses to get going. He's committed to kind of bringing in those changes so small businesses have an easier time starting and existing in the city rather than going through what he faced and a lot of others have to.
Michael Pope
What's your thumbnail description for Andreas Addison.
Jon Baliles
He talks about transformational investments. As I mentioned, he talks a lot about racial, economic, and environmental justice. Using his own story, he talks about not leaving anyone behind and that everybody deserves a chance.
Michael Pope
One more candidate we need to mention; although it's a candidate, I think there's not a lot known about. He raised the smallest amount of money, $2,400. His website says he's a community organizer, Jon Baliles; tell us what we know about Maurice Neblett.
Jon Baliles
Well, I didn't know a lot about Maurice Neblett until I did some research. I have seen him on a couple of forums. He's a political novice; he's never run for office before. He graduated from Virginia Union. I did learn that his mother died when he was young. And he grew up, in his words, a ward of the state. He grew up in group homes. He talks about having the insight to drive Richmond towards a safer and more just future. As you said, he does not have a lot of money. I believe most, if not all, of it is self-funded. He's gonna have a hard time having an impact as far as getting a lot of votes. But you never know his message could resonate with some people, and it might eat into one of the other candidates vote-getting ability. You just never know; he might not gain many votes at all. It's just too early to tell.
Michael Pope
Basically, this is a four-way race: Harrison Roday, Danny Avula, Michelle Mosby, and Andreas Addison. Jon Baliles tell us about the issues; what issues are driving voters? Sometimes, people have to drag themselves to the polls. They have to be motivated by something. What is motivating voters in Virginia in this election?
Jon Baliles
I think you can't ignore the fact that a lot of people are going to be motivated by the top of the ticket; that will drive turnout. Again, it goes to the ground game and having the money to reach people. As far as the issues go, a lot of the candidates have their own lanes on a lot of issues. There are some similarities in that they talked about trying to fix City Hall. They're not very critical of Mayor Stoney, who's been in charge for eight years. You read stories every day about things going wrong at City Hall, with credit card abuse and social services cases being months behind and people not getting their benefits.
Michael Pope
Shout out to your Substack RVA, 5x5. Jon Baliles, I frequently read about all that stuff from you. So yeah, what does it mean to fix City Hall when you hear candidates say, I want to fix City Hall. Unpack that for us? What does that actually mean?
Jon Baliles
Well, when you read about them, the challenges may seem hopeless; you're just like, oh, it's never gonna get fixed. In a lot of cases, unfortunately, it doesn't. And it hasn't been fixed. Look at the the meals tax fiasco from earlier this year, when the city was driving up interest in penalties on restaurants and small business owners without even telling them. Then, all of a sudden, these people find out they've got $30,000, $50,000, and $70,000 bills that they're facing that never should have gotten there. There were early warning signs a few years ago when a restauranter brought it up. Instead of fixing it three years ago, they didn't know anything about it. The key thing for candidates who want to be a successful mayor is pretty simple when you think about it. It's blocking and tackling, using a football analogy, investing in and taking care of the neighborhoods, whether it's picking up trash or keeping neighborhoods safe and creating a healthy environment for city staff in City Hall and out in the field. If city workers don't feel like they're being supported and allowed to do their jobs and have input on how to make things better, then things aren't going to get better. Because if they think the leaders don't care, then they're not going to talk about it. I've said this for I don't know how many years, but you can't fall prey to the big, shiny projects like arenas and casinos. It's a surefire loser, and the city voters prove that.
Michael Pope
I'm going to put you on the spot and ask you to make a prediction—not about which candidate is going to win, but about whether this thing is headed to a runoff. Are voters going to make a determination on election day in November? Or is it more likely that this thing heads to a runoff?
Jon Baliles
I think a runoff is likely. I don't wouldn't put a percentage on it. But I think it's pretty likely. I'm not really sure. You have to look at it from two perspectives. One is that there'll be a massive turnout in November for the presidential election. But if you have a city-only election six weeks later, just for mayor, because the City Council won't be on it, same with the school board. There'll be one race on the ballot; who can get the turnout in mid-December? 9-10 days before Christmas. Then the other question is, of the two candidates that potentially are in a runoff, who's got the money to run a campaign for another six weeks? Or at least raise money quickly?
Michael Pope
One last question before we go, Jon Baliles, tell us about your Substack, RVA 5x5. When did you start it? Why do you do it? What do you hope to accomplish with it?
Jon Baliles
I started it in June of 2022. It's a way to inform people about what's going on. As we've seen, the media landscape has changed not for the better; one of the things that gets lost is coverage of local issues and knowledge of local issues. I've got a resume, inside and around City Hall and in the city itself. I can bring a perspective that maybe some reporters can't bring. Although they have the Time Dispatch, which has been doing some great work recently on the credit card abuse at City Hall, the old-school investigative reporting we used to see all the time. So that's encouraging. But it was also a way to take the filter off and tell people, sometimes brutal, honest truth of what's going on. There's no more dangerous government than a government that's not being covered and transparent. If the government decides not to be transparent, somebody's got to shine a light on it. Because that's when bad things happen. And we've seen that in the last few years.
Michael Pope
You have been listening to the author of the RVA 5x5 Substack. Go hit the subscribe button now! Jon Baliles, thanks for coming on Pod Virginia.
Michael Pope
Thank you, Michael.
