Chaz Nuttycombe: How Will the New Districts Impact Virginia’s Congressional Races?
HEADLINES: A leaked Supreme Court document revealed the justices are poised to overturn Roe v. Wade. Might such action backfire on Republicans?
Delegate Patrick Hope is asking an informal working group of official government entities and stakeholders to study a bill vetoed by Gov. Glenn Youngkin that would study whether the Department of Juvenile Justice should be re-homed under the Department of Health and Human Services. It's an interesting idea, but would Youngkin allow executive agencies to participate?
INTERVIEW: Congressional elections in 2022 are on track to be rough for Democrats unless SCOTUS overturning Roe v. Wade can energize their voters. Chaz Nuttycombe, the Director of CNalysis, sounds off on the most competitive elections in VA02 (Luria), VA07 (Spanberger), and VA10 (Wexton). Which Republicans stand the best chance of knocking off an incumbent Democrat?
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Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Tom Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Pod Virginia, a podcast currently accepting leaked Supreme Court draft opinions. Our dms are open, so please send them over, give us a call.
Thomas Bowman
Slide on in there. Later in the show, we'll be joined by, the one and only, Chaz Nuttycombe, Director of CNalysis. He'll walk us through the congressional districts that have multiple candidates as a result of the court drawn maps.
Michael Pope
It's part three of a series we started with Chaz back in January. First, we talked about the House of Delegates districts with multiple incumbents, which by the way, it turned out to be our most popular episode ever. Then we followed it up with a look at the State Senate races that have two, or even three, incumbants. What a heck of a show that was. If you haven't heard it, do yourself a favor, go back and put it on your playlist. Now, we're completing the trifecta, by talking about the congressional races. Hey, and speaking of Chaz Nuttycombe, we have an important announcement to make.
Thomas Bowman
Michael, do you have one of those special effects? What fanfare. Chaz Nuttycombe is joining the Jackleg Media Team. That's right, the CNalysis Podcast is going to be, from now on, a Jackleg Media podcast, just like Pod Virginia and several other podcasts in development, the CNalysis Podcast will be part of the Jackleg Media Network.
Michael Pope
We're so happy to call Chaz, our friend, and now our colleague, here at Jackleg Media. And we're working with him to reimagine his existing podcast, which you should go subscribe to. And we're really happy to announce that you can get a sneak peek of the new CNalysis podcast 2.0 later this week.
Thomas Bowman
if you're a subscriber to Pod Virginia, or a follower of Pod Virginia, and of course, you are, right, the pilot episode of the revamped CNalysis Podcast will show up in your feed later this week, Thursday.
Michael Pope
I'm really excited about this, and I'm also looking forward to hearing it along with the rest of you.
Thomas Bowman
One more thing before we get to the news. Michael, congratulations are in order, because you won a really significant award from the Virginia Press Association, "Best in Show for Non Daily Writing." If you follow Michael's work, you know he's won a ton of awards from the Virginia Press Association. But this one is different, because it says his writing for the Alexandria Gazette Packet is so good, that it stands above all the other journalists who write for all the many other weekly papers in Virginia. Michael, let me embarrass you for a minute, because the judges said something really cool. The judges said quote, "The writers knowledge of his topics and accessible writing style shine through in these stories. Excellent explanatory journalism and a pleasure to read. So many great entries, but only one prize. Virginia is blessed to have such excellent community journalism and talented writers." Congrats, Michael.
Michael Pope
Well, thanks. I appreciate you taking the time to read the judges comments, there, so. And I would totally agree with the judges. Virginia is, actually, really blessed to have a whole bunch of really excellent community journalists doing very talented work. So having said all that, let's get to the news. Opponents of abortion rights in Virginia are already planning to support hospital construction standards for abortion clinics, and ultrasound requirements for people seeking abortions. Even though Democrats hold a 21 to 19 majority in the Senate, Tarina Keene at Pro Choice Virginia, says Democratic Senator Joe Morrissey's opposition to abortion rights complicates the issue, especially after the election last year.
Tarina Keene
Before, we had a pro choice Lieutenant Governor, who was the tie breaking vote in our bills. We don't have that now with the new Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Sears.
Michael Pope
So opponents of abortion rights, in effect, hold a majority in the House, and a majority in the Senate. But Victoria Cobb at the Family Foundation says that does not mean bills restricting access to abortion will actually make their way to the Governor.
Victoria Cobb
The problem is, that because the Senate is controlled by Democrats, they control the committee process. And we saw this session that they will go to great extremes to make sure that a bill never gets to the floor.
Michael Pope
So that means that both sides of this issue will be looking to the 2023 election when control of the House of Delegates will be at stake and control of the State Senate will be up for grabs. And all of that will, potentially, determine the future of abortion rights in Virginia for years to come. So Thomas, you know, the potential action here of the Supreme Court taking away the constitutionally protected rights to abortion, is probably the first example, ever, in like, American history, of a right being taken away, usually rights are given, not taken away. So once this constitutionally protected, right is removed, it's no longer protected by the Supreme Court, that means every state can do with this, whatever they want to. Obviously, we're hearing about lots of states where abortion will be impossible. Right now, access to abortion services in Virginia is one of the best states, in terms of access to abortion, at this particular moment. But that could go away after the next election, if a Republican House and a Republican Senate create new roadblocks to abortion, we have a Republican governor that's eager to sign them. So this is all really contingent on the next election, and, basically, every election we've got going forward, right?
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, there's so much to unpack with this ruling that I, you know, I don't know that we'll be able to get into every single nuanced aspect of it. But there's a couple things I want to highlight. So one, conservatives have used abortion as a wedge issue, since 1980, when a bunch of people from the Heritage Foundation polled on the issue and found that they could get their segregationist politicians elected again, if they ran on a constitutional amendment banning abortion, and it convinced evangelicals to go for it. Whereas previously, they thought that Roe v. Wade was a very appropriate separation of church and state. So that process gets started, and they're able to win election, after election, after election, against Democrats, because Democrats aren't able to talk about the economy, and their economic policies, which are the most popular of all time. Think about, like going back to the New Deal, this is where that all really gets derailed after Watergate, after Vietnam. And then we start getting off message, being forced to talk about abortion and guns. And so there's some history here. But there's some speculation that this policy got leaked by a Republican, because they don't actually want it to happen, because then it's like slaughtering your golden goose. Right? Like, why would you give up the one issue that justifies your election, in the eyes of, let's call Evangelical Values Voters, who otherwise you don't align in your policies, whatsoever?
Michael Pope
That seems really convoluted, Thomas. So like, obviously, there's been lots of speculation on the motivation of the leaker. And I think the conventional wisdom is that the- whoever leaked this, would be a Democrat, someone who supports abortion rights, leaking this to, potentially, change the outcome of the election so that the-
Thomas Bowman
Is that the conventional wisdom? I'm not sure that it actually is the conventional wisdom?
Michael Pope
Well, but I was I was gonna get to this. So the the other, potential option, is what you're saying, which is it's someone who actually opposes abortion rights, and the way you just laid out that scenario, gosh, that's actually is kind of convoluted. So you would- you would leak the opinion, so that something that you don't want to happen...I'm not phrasing this the right way.
Thomas Bowman
So there's two tiers of anti abortion Republicans, right? So there's truly anti abortion Republicans, and then there's Republicans who use anti abortion as a bludgeon to win reelection, or to win elections. And, and this is not my idea. I want to put that out there. This is probably my favorite conspiracy theory at the moment, but the thinking goes that somebody leaked it from a Republican ideology, simply because they don't actually want it to happen. They knew it would cause either a backlash, the Democrats, and their- people who favor individual reproductive rights, would go rally, protest, maybe win some elections, and scare Republicans back, or scare the Court, rather, back into actually not going down this path. And the logic for that is so that it wouldn't change their outcomes, potentially, in November, where, currently, Republicans are poised to do very well in the midterm elections. However, there were local elections in Tennessee on Tuesday, the first election since this news broke. And at Resolute Strategies Group, we've got a client who is an elected official in Tennessee, and was up for election last week. And they expected 40,000 people to come out and vote in Nashville, they got 60,000 people.
Michael Pope
Hm. Interesting.
Thomas Bowman
So if that margin holds, that's actually enough to knock off Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee, who, currently, isn't on anybody's radar, as far as a potential swing state. Now, I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen, because there's a long time to go. And if the Supreme Court stops what they're doing, then Marsha Blackburn is not in play, and Democrats have a bad year. However, if they go down this road, one silver lining could be Democrats are going to win big, including keeping the House.
Michael Pope
You know, I was interested to see the reaction of a lot of Republicans here. You heard a lot of Republicans, not really talking about abortion rights, so much as the leak, they are really focused on the leak. If you saw the written statement issued by Governor Youngkin, he started out his statement actually talking about the leak. He said, "I'm in utter disbelief that the sacred confidentiality of the Supreme Court will be violated in this manner," like so that's the beginning of his written statement. And then, sort of, I was also interested in the way he ended his statement, he says he's pro life, which we already knew. And he's been clear about that since the day he launched his campaign. But listen to how he ended his written statement. Quote, this is a quote from Governor Youngkin, "While we wait for the final June decision, we," meaning Virginia, the executive branch, "will be focused on lowering taxes for Virginians, funding education and law enforcement, because we need to get a budget passed." In other words, you know, Governor Youngkin, and a lot of Republicans, they want to talk about crime, they want to talk about the economy, like those are campaign issues for them. And I really don't feel like they want to, you know, go to war on this battlefield.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, well, because they're gonna lose the on that issue. So not that many people were super concerned about losing their right to have reproductive health care, prior to this ruling coming out. And so you know, less than, I want to say less than 5% of people, who are Gen Z, even considered it a motivating issue for them. So that number is clearly going to change. And Michael, I just want to highlight some of the human stories here that are at risk. So one, there is a couple in Texas, that the wife is pregnant, and has cancer. They were really excited for this baby, but not at the expense of the mother's life, right? And so it's cervical cancer, which is, normally, very operable, but they can't operate on it while she's pregnant. And because it's beyond six weeks, the family cannot go get an abortion legally, because they're residents of Texas. And they have to drive over 100 miles, across state lines, for any kind of care. And if you can imagine her having an emergency, where she absolutely needs to have an abortion in order to survive, that's not really a viable option for them. So this is a terrible situation, from the human perspective. One more, there's a couple who's very close to me and my wife, and they were told that their child was born with fluid in it's brain. And so, while they were very excited to have a child, their baby is going to be stillborn, or that's what the doctor has told them. And one option for that, so you don't have to carry a stillborn baby to term, is to have an abortion. So it's the second trimester, it's Virginia, that's okay. But if Virginia ever backslides on reproductive health care rights, then they would, easily, be in a situation where they would be breaking the law.
Michael Pope
All right. Well, clearly, there's a lot to talk about on that issue. And I'm confident we will return to that at some point. But one more thing I want to talk about before we get to the commercial break. I want to follow up with a discussion we had on this podcast, a couple of weeks ago, about the possibility of moving the Department of Juvenile Justice, from Public Safety and Homeland Security to Health and Human Resources. Now that might sound like an arcane, or even an academic debate, but it actually poses a really important question. Should Virginia's Juvenile Justice System be centered around law enforcement or should it be centered around social services? Delegate Patrick Hope of Arlington introduced a bill putting together a workgroup to investigate that issue. But then Governor Glenn Youngkin vetoed the bill, leaving Hope mulling over the idea of putting together his own working group, essentially, asking the agencies involved to voluntarily cooperate.
Patrick Hope
And that's my hope and desires that that will happen, and that we will have a process notwithstanding the Governor's veto, that there will be a willingness from the agencies to cooperate, and to provide input into determining whether this is the best way to serve our youth, it may not be.
Michael Pope
Well Valerie Slater at Rise For Youth says it is the best way to serve youth, moving the Department of Juvenile Justice from Public Safety and Homeland Security to Health and Human Resources.
Valerie Slater
There are other states that have already done this, Utah, Arkansas, and they have the results to demonstrate that it is an effective practice to take a public health approach to public safety, rather than a law and order approach.
Michael Pope
In his veto message, the Governor said if Delegate Hope really wants to move Juvenile Justice, he should just introduce a bill to do that, instead of putting together a workgroup. But Delegate Hope says he really doesn't want to make that move, unless all the parties involved have had an opportunity to look at all the issues first. So he wants to do his due diligence and get all the, I hate the word, "stakeholders," Thomas, he wants to get all the stakeholders in the room to get a sense of like, you know what their issues might be. So Thomas, have you ever heard of, essentially, a rogue workgroup? Something that's outside of the normal process of putting together a workgroup like Delegate Hope is thinking about doing here?
Thomas Bowman
Yes, and no. When I was a staffer in the General Assembly, sometimes we would put together more like a kitchen cabinet. And sometimes it would be...one that comes to mind as is one we did on climate policy. And so we had some local stakeholders, some state stakeholders, and a representative of the local energy company that we invited. And there was movement, there was discussion, on some options. And it, certainly, it was more parochial in nature than a statewide agency shift. I have not, necessarily, heard of a rogue work group of agencies, controlled by the Executive that has vetoed this bill. And I think there should be more of these studies of these rogue working groups. But you know, there's some nuances here. So because it's not got the weight of the law behind it, there's not going to be any requirement to publish their findings, or to hold public meetings, which is kind of an interesting dynamic in play here. Because you would think that, hey, you know, Sunshine is good. You know, that's certainly my bias. And yours, too, I assume. And however, they might actually be able to accomplish a lot by not making this an official meeting. And whether or not it passes, I don't know, it's, I find, Governor Youngkins move, likely, to be disingenuous, because you don't get major agency overhaul bills to pass out of the blue. Usually, you need to study it, and it needs to be recommended by that agency. And so none of that would be in play here.
Michael Pope
The real sticking point for having this, sort of, unofficial working group, would be the voluntary cooperation of all of these government agencies. So like in the room, you would definitely, 100%, you would want somebody from the Department of Safety and Homeland Security, probably several people from the Department of- Okay, so you would want them there in the room, you would also want representatives from the Department of Health and Human Resources. You definitely would want them there in the room. So so you could figure out okay, so if we actually make this move, what are the upsides? What are the downsides? What are the potential roadblocks? What are the potential hurdles? How would this work? How would that work? And so, I mean, you have to credit Delegate Hope for wanting to do due diligence, and answering all those questions, before introducing the bill to make the move. But then you got, you know, the advocates like Valerie Slater, they want to make the move, like they feel like this would help kids by having a social services model versus a law enforcement model. And so, I mean, there are competing forces here. And you pointed out something really interesting, which is all these departments we're talking about, are under the control of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin. So, you know, he actually as their boss, could tell them, "Hey, you should totally participate in this rogue workgroup," or, "Hey, it's really a bad idea to go to that meeting of the rogue workgroup, so don't do it." So the same governor that vetoed the bill, also will get to make the decision on whether these departments will participate. And whatever Delegate Hope is able to put together, so I guess we'll have to watch and see what happens over the next few months on this.
Thomas Bowman
Lot to talk about on that. But let's take a break because when we come back, we'll be joined by the host of the CNalysis Podcast, Chaz Nuttycombe. He'll walk us through all the congressional districts that have been up ended by the court redrawn maps. We'll be right back.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Pod Virginia, we're going to open up our redistricting maps and take a look at the congressional districts, that now have two, or even three members, three incumbents, as a result of those court drawn maps. Returning to the podcast to help us dig through the new maps, is our friend, the Director of CNalysis, that's an election forecasting group that specializes in state legislative races. Chaz Nuttycombe, thanks for returning to the show.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Good to be back.
Michael Pope
Chaz, you are kind to join us when we walked through all the House of Delegates districts with a double member, triple member districts. And you came back to walk us through all the Senate districts that have doubled member, or triple member. So this is a, sort of, third part in our installment, where we're looking at the congressional districts that have more than one incumbent. So I want to start with Virginia District 1, the first congressional district, where we've got the incumbent, Rob Whitman, and we've also got Abigail Spanberger, who, technically, lives in this district. I think she's already announced that she's seeking reelection in the seventh. But what do you make of the dynamics here in the first and the seventh between all these potential candidates running for Congress?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so the first has the Richmond suburbs, parts of Chesterfield, and Henrico. And then it's got the peninsula's in that district. This is a Trump plus 6.7 district. It's not going to be competitive until, I would say, 2026, if a Republican is in the White House, at the earliest opportunity. So Spanberger is going to be running in the 7th. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. I have the 7th as a toss up. Even though the 7th did go for Biden by 6.7 points, this is almost all new territory for Spanberger. You only got parts of Spotsy, Culpeper, and Orange, those are the areas she's represented. You got Bryce Reeves running against her. And then I know you got another great Republican candidate from from Prince William, and I can't remember her name, but that's gonna be a very interesting duel between the two of those candidates on the Republican side here. But yeah, the first district, it's a solid Republican district. It's not going anywhere in 2022. Rob Whitman will stay in Congress and we'll see what happens in the 7th.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, this is the big fight, the one to watch, and Abigail Spanberger coming in as the incumbent has got the leg up. So we'll see. I, personally, hope she can beat Bryce Reeves, Bryce Reeves, is a tough campaigner. So a fun story about- not so fun story about Bryce Reeves, when he first ran successfully for the Senate against, then Democrat, Ed Halk who ran the Senate back then. He went, allegedly, I have to say, he went to all the Black churches, and told them the wrong day for the election. And it's speculated that he won his original race, because he did that, and because, at how a substantial percent of Ed Halks voting block did not turn up on election day. And so he is a dirty campaigner. This- that story may be apocryphal, but I did go to school in Fredericksburg, Virginia, in 2011, I was there. So I heard stories. So I'll just say that, like, if that's true, he is a dirty campaigner. He's going to be tough to beat on either side of the aisle, whether it's a primary, whether it's a general election, and Abigail Spanberger has to, not only be on her best game at the time, but she can't make a single mistake before then, and she needs to raise her profile a little more.
Michael Pope
Alright, another double member district we've got is the 3rd congressional district, where we've got Bobby Scott and Elaine Luria. Now Luria has already said that she's going to run in the 2nd, where she'll face, perhaps, Jen Kiggans, or Scott Taylor. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of the political dynamics here, between Congressional District 3 and Congressional District 2?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so Luria is going to be running in the 2nd. And Bobby Scott will of course remain in the 3rd. That's, you know, a very diverse district, it's Biden plus 3.2. Solid Democratic district. So the real conversation here is the 2nd, where you've got a, slightly, redder district for Luria. So new territory, she'll be running in, parts of Southampton County, Suffolk, and Isle of Wight, and Chesapeake, as well. So it's, I would say Kiggans is a slight favorite here. So you know, assuming that she will be the GOP nominee, which I think she will. Even though it went to Biden by 1.7 points, looking at the environment this year, I think Kiggans is going to come out on top. That's not to say she's a shoo in. That's to say she's got a six in 10 chance right now, in our forecast, although these are preliminary ratings. That being said, in a neutral environment, in 2024, I think Luria can make a comeback and flip this district back, because this is a district which is, to the best of my knowledge, trending leftward. So, you know, I think Kiggans slight favorite this year, and then Luria can make a 2024 comeback, in that case.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, Scott Taylor will not be the Republican nominee, he may not be even eligible to run. I'll say that much. And and this is a good time, by the way, to plug our true crime episode that we did on Scott Taylor over Thanksgiving of 2021. Maybe we should include it in the link for this episode. Because go back and listen to that one, for a sense of just how deep this shit Scott Taylor is in. Kiggans is probably going to be the nominee here, between the two of them. And as far as the DPI goes, you're right, there's going to be a very tough one, Virginia Democrats are going to be stretched thin with Spanberger and Luria, there's a good chance that they lose both of them this year with the national average being R+3. Biden is doing very poorly in a lot of the polls right now. So this is not shaping up to be a good year, at this point in time, as we're recording this, for Democrats.
Michael Pope
All right, turning our attention to the 6th Congressional District. We've got two Republicans that have been drawn into this district, Ben Klein and Morgan Griffith. Now Griffith has announced he'll seek reelection in the 9th. So Chaz, what do we make of the dynamics here between the 6th and the 9th?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, Morgan, Morgan Griffith has never lived in his his congressional district, the 9th district. He's always lived in the in the 6th. So no, nothing really interesting here. Both of those are solid Republican districts. I don't think either of them, if they were to get a challenger, in the Republican contests they would lose. So they'll both be in Congress next year.
Thomas Bowman
The only thing I can really add to this is that the reason Ben Klein got endorsed, in the first place, to go be a congressman, is because his colleagues, allegedly, hated him, and wanted him out of the House. This man has been described to me, most accurately, as, "smarmy." And has, probably, one of the Houses most punchable faces after Matt Getz. But unfortunately, he's going to stay as Congressman.
Michael Pope
Before we end this podcast Chaz, what about the newest member of the delegation, Bob Good? Is there any talk about anybody challenging him, or any sort of movement out in the 5th?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, that is a good point. The 5th is kind of a curse district, isn't it for Republican incumbents? You know, they've got a new member ever since 2016.
Thomas Bowman
Sounds like you're saying it's a cursed district for the people who live there.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. The both of them, I guess. You know, I have a hard time seeing Bob Good losing a challenge from- it would be from his left, because Bob Good is, obviously, the most rightward in the Virginia congressional delegation, and his district is solid Republican. It went to Trump by 8.3 points. I'm not- and I don't really think even with the way that district is trending, it's gonna get any friendlier for Democrats, given that it still has Southside in it, which is, rapidly, trending rightward, as well as other parts of rural Virginia. But, you know, again, there is the curse for Republican incumbents in that district, ever since 2016, of, you know, being being a one term wonder.
Michael Pope
All right, well, this has been a great conversation Chazz Nuttycombe of CNalysis, thanks for joining us.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Thank you.
Michael Pope
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Thomas Bowman
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Michael Pope
Well we'll be back next week with another episode of Pod Virginia
