Live from Richmond: New Midterm Polls, Cross-Party Support, and Rising Natural Gas Prices
Live from the Linden Row Inn in Richmond, Virginia, where we attended the RESONATE Podcast Festival this weekend! https://www.resonatepodfest.com/ IN THE NEWS: New polling numbers from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University reveal a host of interesting results: Virginians overwhelmingly support legal abortions, but also show narrow majority support for a 15-week ban. Meanwhile, President Biden's approval rating sits around 40%, with Governor Youngkin at around 50%. Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman is endorsing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in a new ad--joining a long tradition of cross-party support in Virginia politics. Natural gas is leading the list of items rising in price on the new Consumer Price Index--along with food and other household items. With energy prices tied so heavily to the world economy and Russia in particular, that rise in prices has far-reaching geopolitical implications.
Episode Transcription
Michael Pope
On this episode of pod Virginia.
Thomas Bowman
IRL.
Michael Pope
We're here in real life, in the flesh, coming at you live from the Resonate podcast festival in Richmond, Virginia.
Thomas Bowman
We'll also talk about new polling from the Wason Center.
Michael Pope
Denver Riggleman stumping for Abigail Spanberger.
Thomas Bowman
Plus, we take a look at the latest consumer price index.
Michael Pope
You are listening to pod Virginia stick around.
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Thomas Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is pod Virginia, a podcast that's very rarely in the same room at the same time. But here we are in the Fleming James parlor at Linden Row Inn.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, we're having a blast. And we're learning a lot. And if you're a podcaster, I highly recommend it if they end up doing this again next year.
Michael Pope
Yeah, I hope they do, Thomas because we're having a great time here in Richmond. It's been great to see you in person. You know, we rarely do this IRL. And it's been great to meet all of our colleagues here in podcasting at the Resonate podcast festival. So yeah, hopefully, this becomes a tradition, and we can come back here to the Linden Row Inn.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, believe it or not, Jackleg Media has got three employees, and we haven't gotten a chance to meet them in person till now, almost a whole year later.
Michael Pope
Great. Well, let's get to the news. The politics of abortion Virginians overwhelmingly want abortion to be legal in most or all cases. That's according to a new poll from Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Civic Leadership.
Thomas Bowman
But dig a little deeper into the results. And there's an interesting twist.
Michael Pope
Rebecca Bromley Trujillo is the research director at the Wason Center, and she says most voters would also support some kind of restrictions if there are exceptions for the life of the mother rape or incest.
Rebecca Bromley Trujillo
Here is an interesting finding that a narrow majority support banning abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy, with those exceptions at 51%. So just narrow support.
Michael Pope
Democrats say abortion is one of their most important issues this year. And now the US Supreme Court has overturned Roe v Wade, Virginia stands poised to either continue access or moving towards some kind of a ban.
Thomas Bowman
That polling suggests it's an issue that will continue to be at the center of elections for years.
Rebecca Bromley Trujillo
This is going to be an ongoing issue with abortion because this is a purpley state. And so as we change from Democrats or Republicans in power at the state level, there will always be a fight over which direction we're gonna go on abortion restrictions or not.
Thomas Bowman
Another thing that poll covered was President Joe Biden's approval ratings and Michael; they're not so hot. Fewer than 4 in 10 people approve of his job performance.
Rebecca Bromley Trujillo
When it comes to Gov Younkin, however, there is a little bit better news for Younkin. He receives 50% approval in this poll,40% disapprove, and another 9% say they don't know.
Michael Pope
You'll also find what's interesting about this poll, Thomas is the generic ballot. So, Democrats are slightly favored with 46% of registered voters who say they'll support the party, the Democratic candidate in their district, that's compared to 40% of Republicans who support the Republican on the generic ballot. So, you know, when Democrats saw these polling results, they thought it was a pretty good sign here that they're winning on the generic ballot. But it's that's really slight there. I mean, that's not a huge lead that the Democrats have got. And then there's this thing about abortion; it is really interesting. The vast majority of Virginians support abortion being legal in most or all cases, but then, also majority support for the 15-week ban here with the exceptions. So, it's kind of conflicting data. Sometimes polling does this, where do they tell you two conflicting things at the same time?
Thomas Bowman
Well, and the other thing that we don't really have an insight into is how much they actually care, whether there's energy behind the banning abortion position or energy behind preserving abortion rights.
Michael Pope
Clearly, abortion is one of the hottest issues this year. But also another interesting part of that polling data was the, you know, the interest of the specific kinds of voters. So abortion rights, and climate change, are democratic issues. And then Republicans, of course, are interested in other things, inflation, the economy. And so I mean, we really sort of have come down to this point that we're at now, which is what are voters going to be actually caring about and thinking about and concerned about when they actually cast a ballot?
Thomas Bowman
Well, this poll does also provide some insights into the Democrat's campaign strategy. What they don't want is for Joe Biden to be on the ballot. Because if Joe Biden is what everybody is going to the polls to say whether or not they approve or disapprove, and it's an extension of the approval ratings, then Democrats are going to have a bad day what they want is for the issues to be on abortion, the economy, and all the jobs that have been created recently.
Michael Pope
Well, you mentioned Biden, you know, the polling has him at 39%. That is really low for our incumbent president. So like, you know, contrast that with Youngkins approval, which is at 50.
Thomas Bowman
So, Michael, this is a snapshot of where people were in late September or early October when the poll was taken. And of course, the only poll that matters is the one that happened on election day. And so when we think about these polls, any one poll really just kind of gives us a general sense and direction, people are making up their minds, you're starting to see undecideds narrow. And with issues like abortion, there is often general broad level support or apathy or okayness, with hypothetical concepts like a 15-week ban, but when you actually drill down into the specifics, and you have to put an actual bill on the table, there's a real policy choice there that people can pick apart. And that is when minds get made up, and people will come home to their respective sides on that issue.
Michael Pope
You know, this polling also had some interesting data points here that I thought was fascinating. The Democrats are interested as an issue in the topic of gun violence. While the Republicans are interested in crime. It is really interesting that the interplay there between gun violence versus crime. Another thing that jumped out at me here is they polled support or opposition to different parts of like the inflation Reduction Act, for example, and other kinds of things that the legislature might end up doing. So, you saw not a lot of support here for the IRS agents in the inflation Reduction Act. Not a lot of support for tax credits for low-income people to buy electric vehicles. But there are, again, conflicting data here because the voters also supported tax cuts for utility-scale solar and wind power credits. And it's interesting that the voters thought it was okay to give tax credits to corporations but not low-income people.
Thomas Bowman
You know, Michael, one thing that sticks out to me from this poll is that the messaging is mixed. Democrats don't necessarily have a clear message about all of these specific policies and win for Joe Biden that they're trying to run on. And so that leads to confusion. And the voters, of course, the Republicans, want that to happen. And they've got their own messaging that they're trying to push. And historically, Republicans are much better at messaging than Democrats. I think about the estate tax, which prevented families from building up wealth, intergenerationally.
Michael Pope
You're talking about the death tax.
Thomas Bowman
And Republicans call it the death tax. And, of course, nobody wants a death tax as a very bad thing. And that's just the case in point of how important messaging is when people are making up their minds about whether they like or dislike a certain policy. We're gonna see similar things play out around the Inflation Reduction Act.
Michael Pope
All right. Let's move on to our next topic. Cross-party traffic, former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman is endorsing incumbent Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
Thomas Bowman
Riggleman lost his seat after officiating a gay wedding. Then he became an advisor for the January 6 committee.
Michael Pope
Now he's participating in what Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington says is a long tradition in Virginia politics.
Stephen Farnsworth
If you look back to the days when Senator John Warner was active in Virginia politics, for example, you really did see a real concern about conservative Republicans undermining the state of the party as well as not being the best choice for the country.
Michael Pope
Yeah, Stephen Farnsworth makes a really interesting point here, which is that John Warner, the late Senator John Warner, late in his career, endorsed a lot of Democrats, Tim Kaine, I think he endorsed Lauria, Mark Warner, you know, also Hillary Clinton. And so, this is kind of a long tradition. You know, like, if you think about in recent years, we've seen David Ramadan, Republican David Ramadan endorsed Democrat Terry McAuliffe. I think Virgil Goode had a reputation as being kind of a cross-party person. If you think about the other side of this, there's the Democratic Senator Benjamin Lambert ended up endorsing George Allen back in 2006. And that was not good for Senator Lambert, who ended up being primaried by a guy named Donald McEachin. This was actually the origin story here of now, Congressman McEachin. And then, if you go way back in time, you think about Democratic State Senator Henry Howell, helping Republican Linwood Holton become Governor. And yeah, there's a long history of this kind of thing that Denver Riggleman is doing right now.
Thomas Bowman
Or how about, and shout out to your book, Michael, the Bird Machine in Virginia, Democrat Harry Bird and his son running as an independent and eventually having that bird machine flip from Democrat to Republican over about a generation of politics.
Michael Pope
Well, you know, I think that's best exemplified by Mills Godwin, who, you know, had a term as a Democrat and then made a comeback. As a Republican.
Thomas Bowman
The only Virginia governor to serve two terms since Patrick Henry.
Michael Pope
Yeah, I think there might actually have been another Governor to serve two non-consecutive terms after Patrick Henry, but before Mills Godwin, and he was not elected, he was appointed by the General Assembly. This is because there was a long period of time when governors weren't elected.
Thomas Bowman
I love your esoteric knowledge.
Michael Pope
Actually, in my notebook, I can find it, but he had to resign to become Secretary of State. So it's James Monroe. James Monroe had two non-consecutive terms as Governor, but he resigned that second and only served a week or two because he got appointed Secretary of State.
Thomas Bowman
Okay, so he wasn't a colonial Governor. Because Patrick Henry was the colonial Governor first, then elected Virginia State Governor, excuse me, Commonwealth of Virginia, Governor second.
Michael Pope
Anyway, so the point, I mean, like, actually, we're making the point here, which is that what Denver Riggleman is doing right now actually has a very long history in, in Virginia, and thank goodness that people aren't so tribal, that they never endorsed on the other side of the party.
Thomas Bowman
Virginia has never been about extremes. We talked last week about how it is so national security heavy. And one thing that's required when many of your voter’s care about national security is a steady hand at the wheel. And Republicans like John Warner are very far from a lot of the Republicans who got elected in the Tea Party wave, and now the MAGA Republicans getting elected now who are not establishment Republicans, or at least they're not running as establishment Republicans. And that bothers a lot of the moderate Republicans, whereas Democrats have positioned themselves since the Warner years, but it's evolved to try to become the reasonable steady hand at the wheel. And it's notable; I think that when Gillespie loses, he's seen as a partisan hack in a way, but it was a very close election, and Glenn Younkin is able to successfully run as a moderate and bring a lot of those Republican voters back home from the Terry McAuliffe, Ralph Northam Democrats.
Michael Pope
Yeah, well, clearly a long tradition and a lot of interesting things happening here in Virginia. Let's geek out on some new numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Thomas Bowman
I'm falling asleep already, Michael; we need more coffee.
Michael Pope
The rising cost of natural gas is leading the list of items on the consumer price index that are now more expensive than they were a year ago, much more expensive. Oleg Korenok is chairman of the Economics Department at Virginia Commonwealth University, and he says the price we pay for natural gas here in Virginia is tied to the world market.
Oleg Korenok
Europe experiences a huge problem with natural gas because Russia cut off Europe from natural gas. And so the prices of natural gas in Europe went up ten times, not 10% 10 times.
Michael Pope
Michael Farren George Mason University's Mercatus Center says one item that's actually not rising is the cost of gasoline.
Michael Farren
Much of that price pressure was due to a lack of refining supply, as well as surging demand coming out of our recovery from COVID. And a deliberate withholding of supply on the part of OPEC so that they could keep prices up just as the world economies were trying to recover.
Michael Pope
Yeah, so there's a lot going on here. We're talking about our local consumer price index. So you know, when these numbers came out last week, they came out for all the metropolitan statistical areas. So the numbers that we're looking at here, Thomas, are the ones for the Washington DC area, Arlington, Alexandria, Washington, DC, MSA. And you know, I've taken all of the percentage increases, and you know, put them on a spreadsheet to see which one is the highest, and so I mean, the spreadsheet actually has, you know, a lot of things are going up food, the cost of food at your house is going up like 9%. The cost of cereal and baked goods is going up 10% transportation costs are going up 12%. But then you get to the top of this list here. And it's utility piped gas service, which is natural gas, as we just heard from our experts here, you know, our local economy is inexorably tied to the world economy. And the price of natural gas is just going through the roof here where we live because of events going on the other side of the globe.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, and it's important to point out how different the commodities markets are for oil and natural gas. It's something like 60% of Russian exports; they're where they make their actual money to fund their government and pay their bills come from oil sales. And in order to do all that, Russia needs the price of oil to stay above 80 $85 a barrel. Now, it's been around $100 a barrel, and the United States wants to get that really low. So we are increasing, or we are opening up our strategic reserve. And that is what's bringing much of the price of gas down. And by the way, the United States is having those supplies dwindle. And our hope is that the oil refineries can refine enough gasoline to restock those refineries ahead of this winter. But the United States wants oil prices low OPEC decided they were going to cut production, which keeps those oil prices over $85 a barrel. So that is actually OPEC saying they're siding with Russia. And there are a lot of reasons for that. One of them is that Russia needs to pay a lot of bond debt. And those are often two countries that are its allies, which are OPEC countries, by and large, and China. Now natural gas is very different. So, there's a lot less natural gas in the world these days also because of Russia. So, for years, Michael, Russia supplied Europe with cheap natural gas to lower its factories and heat homes. But after the West imposed sanctions for the war in Ukraine, Russia slashed its supplies, effectively weaponizing its natural gas. And so, while global supply has dropped, demands actually up, and not just demand generally demand for United States natural gas. So, we've opened up our strategic reserves, and we're supplying our natural gas mostly to Europe to try to make up that deficit. Half of American homes use natural gas for heating or cooling. So given how hot this summer was, we had our air conditioners working overtime. And that actually ended up causing supplies and natural gas to dwindle faster. So, our inventories are down. And because the US has to export its own supply of gas to Europe to make up for Russia cutting off its gas, that just means there's so much more demand for American natural gas that it's driven prices up over 300%, just in the few weeks since September.
Michael Pope
You know, what I think is interesting about these CPI data is if you look at the categories, they're all going up, basically. So, if you look at the food area, you see an item like dairy and related products going up 17%. So, you know, it's almost 20% That's a lot. I think if you're at the grocery store and you're shopping, you will notice the 20% increase in dairy in related products. So, but that's nothing compared to the cost of the piped natural gas coming into your house is going up twice as much as that, right?
Thomas Bowman
Yes.
Michael Pope
So it is really interesting. Also, I think that the energy sector here of the CPI data are all the line items that are going up here fuels and utilities are the super categories. But then underneath that, you get things like household energy, electricity, what we talked about utility piped natural gas. I mean, like, this is the energy part of this data super interesting because it's going up so much more than everything else.
Thomas Bowman
The bottom line is you probably want to dress in layers this winter rather than crank up your thermostat because the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that's a mouthful estimates the average family may pay more than $1,200 just to heat their home, which doesn't include turning on their ovens.
Michael Pope
Okay, Thomas, we should probably end this thing now before the folks here at the Linden row kick us out of the parlor suite here.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, we gotta get back to the festival. So tune in Thursday when our producer, Aryan Balu, talks to Michael Pope about his new book on the Bird organization.
