IN THE NEWS:

• On the Airwaves: If you've been watching TV, you've seen the ads--Democrats portraying Republicans as conspiracy theorists and extremists trying to criminalize abortions, while Republicans are portraying Joe Biden's America as dangerous and lawless. And these ads--the result some massive ad buys--all pretty much sound the same, no matter where in the state you are.

• Plus, despite what the Republican ads say, crime is down in both Virginia and the United States. Violent crime is down almost 40 percent since the early 90s. Murder is down 20 percent. Property crime, is down 60 percent, and it's currently at one of the lowest rates ever.

• One last bit of messaging news--one line of attack from Republicans takes aim at electric cars, and a bill signed by Governor Northam that would mandate all new car sales in the states to be EVs by 2035. Michael and Lauren discuss where Virginians stand on the issue of electric vehicles and how it might affect the election this week.

At the Watercooler:

• Rumors of a Youngkin presidential run next week.

• A great debate last week between Schuyler VanValkenburg and Siobhan Dunnavant--with a couple of moderate positions.

Episode Transcript

Michael Pope  

I'm Michael Pope.

Lauren Burke  

I'm Lauren Burke.

Michael Pope  

And this is Pod Virginia, a podcast preparing for the scariest, most spine-tingling holiday.

Lauren Burke  

Halloween.

Michael Pope  

No, Election Day! Okay, let's get to the news. On the airwaves, if you've been watching TV, you've probably seen that these MAGA Republicans are banning books across Virginia. Democrats are all over TV with ads portraying Republicans as conspiracy theorists and extremists trying to criminalize abortions in Virginia.

Lauren Burke  

Republicans are also forking over a record amount of campaign cash to buy TV time. Here's Mark Rozell, Dean of the Schar School at George Mason University.

Mark Rozell  

 It was remarkable to me hearing all these ads and how similar they are. It's as though a single political consultant said, Here's your message. Here's what you have to say. Here's the issue that works for you.

Michael Pope  

Yeah, these ads. Lauren, there's a whole lot of similarity to them. Because a considerable amount of the Democrat's ads obviously focused on abortion. And then, if you look at the Republican ads, it's crime, crime, crime. Your neighborhood is about to erupt in chaos, and Rozell is right; these ads have a lot of similarities.

Lauren Burke  

This is the playbook that goes back to the Southern strategy. It goes back to when Roger Ailes was consulting Richard Nixon. It goes back to Lee Atwater; in fact, I think I'm going to start some sort of Atwater Horton awards for the most Horton-esque political ad of the season because I have gotta tell you, the Lee Peters ad, in the Josh Cole race, takes the absolute cake for that. If you are anywhere in the area of Northern Virginia or even Washington, DC, you will see this ad. They are leaning heavily on crime. And to state the obvious clearly, they must see something in their polling. I mean, first of all, the crime rate is down. And you have races where one would not think that issue is a thing. Of course, you can argue that most people don't care who you are: Democrat, Republican, Black, white, Young, or Old; you care about safety, but they are really leaning in hard. And so yeah, Mark Rozell is correct. When he says, Wow, it almost seems like it's the same person doing; yeah, it's the same consultant because these ads are very familiar whether you're in Virginia Beach or NoVA.

Michael Pope  

You said you would give Lee Peters the newly created Willie Horton Award. That's undoubtedly an eye-catching ad. A similar award could go to Kim Taylor in the race against Kimberly Pope Adams because that's the one you just actually heard the audio, something to the effect of Joe Biden's America Dangerous, Lawless, and Crime is Up. I mean, it's really to scare the bejesus out of you. I mean, it's also fact-checked, not true. If you look at the FBI stats, it doesn't say that at all. But as we've said on this podcast, many times, people don't vote on FBI stats; they vote on their perceptions, and people have perceptions that crime is up, largely driven by all these television commercials people are seeing. There's a loop here.

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, there's a loop because the media is driven. I mean, the way the media makes money, of course, is click rates, click-through rates, and getting people's attention. And, if it bleeds, it leads. So the perception is that there's more criminal activity because that is what our media puts forward: on the front cover, first in the afternoon, six o'clock news broadcast, that is, the first two or three minutes. It's not to say that crime is not, you know, what we do see in the DMV area. Certainly, there's a spike in carjackings in Washington, DC. I mean, that's just a true fact. But when we're talking about Virginia, it's a different story. We don't have those types of stats in Virginia. So it works. You're right; the perception is that it's more dangerous out there than it actually is. And the Republicans have learned that this issue works. And they must be seeing something, obviously, in their polling that is indicating that this issue works.

Michael Pope  

On that issue. If you look at public polling, you'll see voters trust Republicans more on the issue of crime. And Republicans do feel like they have a campaign issue here in rolling back all this criminal justice stuff that Democrats did when they were in power. They can campaign against woke prosecutors, who are progressive prosecutors for justice. And they feel this is a winning issue for them, which is why you see it all over your television screens. 

Lauren Burke  

They're playing a different game here. It's funny that you ran the Kim Taylor ad because it sounds a lot like the Lee Peters ad, with the same announcer voice. But yeah, I do think that the Democrats have to get a justice reform strategy, stick to it, and stop being scared to articulate what that Justice strategy is. We spend a lot of money in our society on law enforcement, and sometimes that's fantastic. And sometimes, there should be some questions asked, and I don't think there's anything problematic about asking some questions about where public money goes. 

Michael Pope  

And on the topic of TV commercials, we are really seeing record amounts of spending, $4.5 million for a Henrico Senate seat. $5 million for a Hampton Roads Senate seat, and Lauren $6.5 million for a State Senate seat in Loudoun; $ 6.5 million has been spent just booking TV time; forget about everything these candidates have done regarding hiring consultants and sending out direct mail. The $6.5million is just booking this TV time. $6.5 million. That's just crazy.

Lauren Burke  

Yeah. And there needs to be campaign finance reform; there's no doubt about it. Because what does end up happening. Now, a lot of people want to resist this notion that elected officials, these entities that put this much money into these candidates, are getting something in return; they're certainly getting legislative attention in return. And anybody who tries to pretend that's not true is kidding themselves, whether it's Dominion or Michael Bills, or whoever it is, you see it all the time; it is where certain entities get attention. Legislatively, they get the attention of our elected officials, who, in fact, sort of de facto own them and their time because of all these donations. It is amazing to think about a quote, in fat, quotes, part-time legislature, where one only makes $16,000 to $17,000. Of course, after the per diem, it can get to about $40,000 or $45,000. But still, not what most folks would say is a high wage, particularly if you are in the northern part of Virginia. And to be raising this type of money. I mean, you've got to be kidding me. So, campaign finance reform definitely needs to happen. And I know a lot of people resist it. In the end, this whole thing is sort of a circular grift that involves donors and consultants and a lot of folks that just want that grift to continue because of the money that's coming in, but it really doesn't make any sense.

Michael Pope  

On the topic of TV commercials, scaring the bejesus out of you. Let's go on to our next story. Scare tactics. One of my favorite political ads from this year's campaign season starts this way. "Joe Biden's America Dangerous, lawless crime is up". So, over the top, it's just funny. And it's one of the many political ads this year aimed at making television viewers believe crime is up. But is it? 

Jeff Asher  

Overall, Virginia crime, like much of the nation, has come down significantly over the last 30 years. 

Michael Pope  

That's Jeff Asher, a crime analyst based in New Orleans. So he points to FBI crime statistics that show that violent crime is down almost 40%; since the early 90s, murder is down 20%. And the most common kind of crime, property crime, well, that's down 60% since the early 90s. And it's currently, by the way, at one of the lowest rates ever in recorded history of crime stats. So Jeff Asher tells me that crime did spike a little bit during the pandemic, but that was a short-term blip and an otherwise decades-long trend of declining crime rates.

Jeff Asher  

What we're seeing is a general decline in the types of crimes that I think people were very concerned about, and rightly so. In 2020, and 2021, we saw big increases, that trend is not continuing to today.

Michael Pope  

Many of our listeners are probably too young to remember the crack wars in the early 80s and early 90s. So, there was a huge crime wave in the early 90s. And there were many things that happened to crack down on that, some of which we're now rolling back. If you think about the politics of the early 90s and all the law and order stuff that happened back then, there were mandatory minimum sentences, and throw the book at them and keep them in jail as long as you can. This actually led to the mass incarceration crisis that we've got now. And so if you look at these FBI crime stats, which are really easy to find, the FBI makes them very easy to go in. It's interactive, and you can search for certain years. If you zoom out and see the longest amount of time possible, you look at the early 90s. And it's like a mountain peak; the early 90s is the peak of the mountain. And then it's like you ski down the side of the mountain because it goes straight down to the point that we're at now. This idea about crime you see on your television screens is out of control. It's just not true. But people have perceptions based on the television that they watch. And many media outlets out there have this narrative of crime is out of control, and your streets are not safe, and all that sort of stuff. And it is true that the pandemic sort of did screw things up. But the data we've got since the pandemic shows the spike that happened during the pandemic has already gone down. So, we're already on the trend of declining crime rates. But people have perceptions. And that's where we're at. 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, fear works. The bottom line of it is that it is not the 1990s. The United States still leads the world in the rate of incarceration and has for some time now, to the tune of $80 billion a year in public costs for public prisons and jails, when it comes to government expenses. So when you're spending $80 billion on this thing, there's a lot of people who are involved in that. My father was a prison guard at Rikers Island for over 20 years. And he did a ton of overtime. And that overtime got me through college. There's a lot related to the incarcerated state in the United States in terms of economics. It's unfortunate that people don't see it the other way around: the productivity that we lose with the people that we incarcerate in terms of paying taxes and contributing to society. Nobody looks at it that way. It's such a hot-button political issue that works. It wasn't until this year that the New York City Police Department, one of the biggest in the country, blew through the budget with over $100 million in overtime. Unbelievable, and this crime thing is not just a political issue that works because it works on people's fears and emotions. There's an economic element to it. That is no-nonsense. 

Michael Pope  

Part of the Republican argument here is that it's true that crime has gone down significantly since the early 90s. And from the Republican perspective, they could make the argument well, yeah, that's because of all this law and order stuff that we did in the 90s and all of these mandatory minimums that we put in place and, yeah, we've got this mass incarceration thing, but that's keeping everybody safe. That's why the crime numbers have gone down. So the worry is that all these things that Democrats did when they took control. You will remember the 2020 General Assembly session was historic because Democrats were finally in power and able to enact all these things that they had wanted to do for decades and decades and decades. So, in this brief period of time, Democrats were empowered, they created the civilian review boards, and they limited the no-knock warrants. And they changed the reasoning why people can pull people over. So, for example, you can no longer pull someone over because of the air freshener dangling from the rearview mirror or the busted taillight. Then there's legalizing marijuana and allowing juries to sentence people in criminal trials. And, like, there's a very long list of criminal justice reforms that Democrats did that Republicans don't like. And so part of their argument is elect us. And we will undo all that stuff that Democrats did that might make your neighborhood more unsafe in the future.

Lauren Burke  

That's the theory. I'm not sure what would back that theory up exactly. I think it's just. Frankly, you can never lose in politics backing the police. Like, you're never going to look bad when you say, Oh, we back the police. It's a much harder argument to make that the over 1 million people we have incarcerated should get a second chance or, in some way, should not be treated. Like we're just throwing them away, and the lack of productivity and everything else you see with it. Not to mention the complete dysfunction that it causes in over-police communities when you usually take the man out of the equation and hit him with a felony, which, of course, is an economic-breaking proposition. Because once you have a felony on your record, I think it's almost impossible to get to a certain place in life in terms of what jobs you get and what opportunities you have. Nobody wants to talk about that side of it. By the way, these are mostly nonviolent offenders. Nobody wants to talk about that, either. It is so easy to argue pro-police, and I'm anti-criminal. It's the easiest thing in the world for any politician to put that message together. And it's been working. It's been working for decades. The other thing in there that does need to be discussed, though, is that we're asking our police to do too much, particularly with regard to mental health issues in our society that we refuse to deal with in the proper way. So when we ask our police to be truant officers, teachers, parents, and mental health professionals, that's a nonworking proposition. I have a nephew who used to be a cop in Virginia Beach, and several other relatives were in law enforcement. So it is it causes dysfunction when you have this much contact with law enforcement going on, particularly for nonviolent offenses, and particularly nonviolent offenses around drugs, because once a person has that felony, it is hard to deal with. But again, from a political standpoint that Republicans know that they can play this song over and over again, the Democrats are too scared to make an argument. And as long as the Democrats are too scared to make an argument about what is common sense, justice reform policy, they can run the table. And that is why we're seeing these ads and some of this discussion that's going on right now in this cycle.

Michael Pope  

Well, let's move on to our next story. Electric politics, now almost hidden in one of the many attacks Republicans have been making against Democratic incumbents, is this one against incumbent delegate Rodney Willett in Henrico. This is the attack from the Republicans. He drives a Tesla, and he wants you to drive an electric car to

Derek Max  

I have no problem with him driving a Tesla. But him voting that everybody needs to drive a Tesla I think is the problem.

Michael Pope  

That's Derek Max at the Thomas Jefferson Institute. He's talking about a bill introduced by Democrats and signed by a former Democratic governor, Ralph Northam, that requires all new car sales in Virginia to be electric by 2035.

Derek Max  

I get moonshot goals. You know, the United States is gonna hit the moon by whatever date, or we're gonna cure cancer by whatever date, but typically, you know. They're nice goals. But when they're mandates that require massive restructuring of whole industries, it was a bad idea.

Lauren Burke  

What about the auto dealers? What do they have to say about this? Ralston King at the Virginia Automobile Dealers Association says EVs are coming whether the deadline is 2035 or 2050.

Ralston King  

Toyota came out and said they want to spend $8 billion on a facility in North Carolina specifically dedicated to plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. So they're coming but is a timeline or a deadline sufficient to actually get these out into the marketplace. Those are things that consumers have to think about. Politicians are certainly going to run on both sides of the aisle for these Items one way or the other, and ultimately, voters and consumers will decide.

Michael Pope  

Yeah, we have yet to hear much discussion about this issue on the campaign trail. Although early in the election season, Republicans focused on this message of Don't California, my Virginia. Lauren, do you remember this? 

Lauren Burke  

I do, yes. 

Michael Pope  

This was their line early on. I think they know it's like you rarely hear people make this argument. But it's worth thinking about the consequences of this election. Everybody's focused on abortion for obvious reasons. And it's true that if Republicans are elected, they will roll back existing abortion rights. However, that's not the only thing on the ballot, right. I mean, like these criminal justice reform efforts that we just talked about, where you know, the current law is that marijuana is now legal. And we've got the civilian review boards, and no-knock warrants have been limited. Cops can no longer pull you over for a busted taillight. And the list goes on and on; jury juries are now able to sentence people. So, all of these things are actually on the ballot because Republicans would roll them back. So, I wanted to focus on the electric car thing because this is something Republicans are really eager to roll back. They do not like this deadline that was created by the Democrats when they were in power. This deadline for all new car sales in Virginia is that they must be electric by 2035. Well, that's right around the corner. So you got Republicans saying, Well, I like my fossil fuel car. It's cheaper than the electric cars. And I've got a lot of anxiety about driving an electric car; what if it runs out of power? And this message of Don't California, my Virginia feels like it probably resonates with people who don't want to drive an electric car and feel resentful that the government is making them buy an electric car after 2035 if they want to buy a new one. So, I mean, there is not a lot of discussion about electric vehicles. Still, they actually are on the ballot this year. 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, what's on the ballot, though? Is the government telling you what to do? And the government telling you what to do about your car is annoying. It isn't pleasant. And so I don't know if people are thinking that deeply about fossil fuels. So it's just like the government telling them what type of car to drive.

Michael Pope  

Well, to be fair, the government is telling the auto dealers what kind of cars they can sell.

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, well, that de facto is the same thing. I'm convinced that somebody could win the governorship of Virginia over repealing the car tax and the annual registration. I'm absolutely convinced of that. Because that's something that touches everybody who drives a car, which is a lot of people in a beautiful state like the Commonwealth of Virginia, a lot of people. So, having to pay the $20 bill every single year of its registration, other states don't have that stuff. And if you've had a car in another state, which I have, you got to look up and say to yourself, well, what is this with that and the car tax. Now here we go with, oh, now we're going to have everybody get electric cars. I know it's well-intentioned, but people, generally speaking, do not like having the government tell them what to do, particularly on something like this; the car is a symbol and an icon of freedom and self-expression. Sometimes it's a lot of things. I know a lot of politicians who will not drive anything other than an American car because they want to show support for buying American. And it just symbolizes. I was saying to somebody the other day more people see your car than your house. You know, when you go to an event, like somebody sees your car, they don't know where you live or what your house looks like. But that car becomes a symbol of who you are. 

Michael Pope  

Oh, yeah. And there's a lot of really deep psychology to people's attachments to their cars. If you want to see that on display, go to your local city council meeting when they're talking about bike lanes and bike lanes taking up space on the road that had previously been devoted to cars, or similarly, go to a city council meeting where they're talking about creating a dedicated lane for buses that cars can no longer drive in. And you will see this psychology come out hardcore. Lauren, you mentioned that it might behoove a candidate for governor to campaign against the car tax. Fun fact: this has been tried and successfully. Way back in the year 1997. There was a guy named Jim Gilmore, and this was his main campaign issue in 1997. Getting rid of the car tax "the car tax must go" was his campaign slogan, and it worked, and he was elected, but guess what? We still have a car tax.

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, we have a car tax, and then we also have a surplus. Of a few billion dollars, I know a lot of that money is from the federal government. Still, it doesn't make logical sense to people to be in a state where you have a billion-dollar surplus. And rebate checks showed up in the mail this week, $200 - $400. And so, if we have a surplus, why are we paying a car tax every year? Also, I think it's consistent for Republicans to argue; they typically will argue less government unless it's abortion and suddenly to not argue unless government, but typically, you know, your Reagan-style Republicans at least try to argue less government. So this debate about cars actually is in keeping with that.

Michael Pope  

All right, let's take a break. When we come back, we will play around with trivia and head over to the water cooler.

Let's head around the Commonwealth.

Lauren Burke  

Former President Obama waded into Virginia politics, recording two robocalls for Democrats. 

Michael Pope  

But given Obama's famously fast way of speaking, each robocall runs about two hours and has been nominated for a Grammy.

Lauren Burke  

In an interview with Forbes, billionaire political Thomas Peterffy predicted Governor Youngkin will join the presidential race next week. 

Michael Pope  

That's an easy bet, given the world lately; anything could happen next week.

Lauren Burke  

New data shows that this year's election may hinge significantly on the voting power of white women in the suburbs.

Michael Pope  

So, to appeal to this demographic, some candidates have changed their tactics, with one changing his name to Pitull Pinto Grigio.

Lauren Burke  

The NAACP of VCU marched against the school's decision to no longer require a racial literacy course, chanting, "Knowledge is power. Black Books matter".

Michael Pope  

Republicans instinctively replied all books matter before trying to shut down another library. 

Lauren Burke  

Finally, an environmental nonprofit has successfully sued the city of Alexandria, forcing them to finally stop a toxic coal tar leak into the Potomac.

Michael Pope  

Sometimes legal action is the only way to stop a horrendous toxic spew, said Donald Trump's judge. Alexandria polluting the Potomac River, but not anymore. All right, that's been fixed. Let's play a round of trivia. So last week, we asked you when the first time delegate Ken Plum ran for office was. He was first elected in 1979. But that was not the first time he ran for the House of Delegates.

Lauren Burke  

We got a few wrong answers. 

Michael Pope  

Yeah, we got a few wrong answers. Brian Devine said 1902, which is kind of mean. 

Lauren Burke  

Zach Lincoln said 50 BC, which is even meaner.

Michael Pope  

Oh, 50 BC, Gosh. Michael at Political Michael on X said maybe it was 1991, which is the closest thing we have to a correct answer because Ken Plum did, in fact, run in 1991. He was unopposed that year. So he won with 99% of the vote.

Lauren Burke  

But 1991 is not the gear we were looking for, right? 

Michael Pope  

No, it is not. The answer we were looking for was 1975. And nobody got the right answer. So nobody's getting the prize this week. But if they did, Lauren, tell them what they would have won. 

Lauren Burke  

A 2035 Toyota Prius, advanced copy, and it flies. 

Michael Pope  

We got the flying car mandate is coming next.

Lauren Burke  

Okay, so what's the trivia question for next week?

Michael Pope  

All right. So, I got an election-related trivia question. So, on election day this week, we will elect 100 members of the House of Delegates. So, I have a question about the very first election for the House of Burgesses, back in the 1600s. So this is the trivia question: How many members did the original House of Burgesses have? So, we currently have 100 members in the House? But that's not the number that they had in 1619. So the question is, how many members of the House did they originally elect way back in 1619? Alright, so if you think you know the answer, hit us up on social media; you might even win a prize. All right, let's head over to the water cooler. Lauren, what's the latest you're hearing around the watercooler?

Lauren Burke  

Well, we're hearing that Governor Glenn Youngkin may run for the presidency. And of course, a lot of people think that he was waiting, of course, for the elections to be over, which I do think he was, but I'm not sure it matters what the result is, per se. I mean, unless the Democrats, unless there's like a blue wave type of situation. I think he's doing it either way, whether the Republicans keep the House or not and whether the Democrats hold the Senate or not. But we will probably see each other next week; he should give some indication. Finally, obviously, there's been a lot of talk about him missing certain deadlines for certain primaries.

Michael Pope  

He's already missed at least two. I mean, like, his name will not be on the ballot for some of those early contests. That doesn't keep them out, of course. But isn't it kind of late to enter the race? 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, it's definitely late to enter the race. The only thing is, this race is a little bit different than any other presidential race in history because you have a front-runner who has several indictments, several indictments, and several legal proceedings going on that, I think, are completely unpredictable.

Michael Pope  

Winning like, okay, it's true. He's got the indictments, but that does not seem to have harmed him yet.

Lauren Burke  

It's definitely true. In fact, he's doing fundraising on it. The problem is that even though the timing looks as if it's in Donald Trump's favor, there are some really unpredictable markers there, in terms of timing and whether or not he is found guilty on any of them. Some of the cases certainly are weaker than others; I actually tend to think that the case in New York is a weak case. But it's still the case in New York and not the only case. And I do think a lot of these donors, and some of the old school Republicans are a little tired of the Donald Trump show. And that's why they would potentially turn to somebody like Glenn Youngkin, who they've already signaled that that's exactly who they want to turn to. And I also think the involvement of Rupert Murdoch, with a broadcast station that is completely committed to saying anything they want to get what they want to put out whatever message they like, whether it's true or not, is a big bonus, potentially, for Glenn Youngkin. And I know, I've heard even though he's polling at 1%, and nobody knows who he is outside of Virginia, and all that. I think that we are in a political time right now where the unpredictable is not out of the question. And so I do think he's going to run. 

Michael Pope  

Yeah, that is really interesting. I have yet to meet a voter who says that Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are not acceptable candidates. But oh, Glenn Youngkin. He's the white knight that's gonna come and save everything. And who is this mystery voter out there in the Republican world? But I mean, I guess we'll have to see. Youngkin will clearly make a decision one way or the other after the election, as he has said the entire time, so we're waiting for that. But Lauren, it's worth pointing out. That's not the only announcement that is going to be post-election. Aren't we going to see a whole bumper crop of people making announcements about running for governor, lieutenant governor, or Congress? I mean, Wexton's seat is open. And elections are famously fulcrums here, so after the dust has cleared regarding the election results, we're gonna see a whole bunch of people start making noise about the next election cycle, right? 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, we're obviously gonna get a bunch of people for the Virginia 10 congressional seat. Because unfortunately, Congresswoman Wexton informed everybody recently that she's dealing with an incredibly difficult health situation. So, all prayers to her. I think we saw recently a few weeks ago that former Speaker Filler-Corn may have made a mistake getting out too early on that question. And anytime anybody has a health situation, it is extremely sensitive because you certainly don't want to look like you're eagerly getting out there when somebody is dealing with something like that. But the election does signal the sort of moment where it's appropriate to start talking about the future. So yes, there are some folks who are on the ballot that are likely to run in Virginia 10. And then, of course, in Virginia, you know, we have in 2025, the off-year race for governor. And I think that's going to be a lot of people, a lot more people in than that what we're hearing right now; I think it's wildly premature to be talking about 2025 because I'm a big believer in the next cycle, which is 2024, which is going to be hugely consequential. We have Joe Biden on the ballot, probably against Donald Trump. And so that question has got to be figured out. We're talking about the future of our democracy at stake before we get to 2025. But you're right, Michael; the selection will kick off a bunch of announcements, probably right after the dust clears. What about you, Michael? What's the latest you're hearing around the water cooler?

Michael Pope  

Well, shout out to a friend of the podcast, Whitney Evans at VPM, who moderated a great debate with  VanValkenburg-Dunnavant. So, fun fact, Lauren: I don't know if you know this, but our very first guest on this podcast was Whitney Evans way back in 2020. And so it's good to see that she has successfully launched her career off of our podcast. No, I am just joking. She's great, actually; I really liked Whitney quite a lot. And the debate was excellent. Because I mean, it really got into issues. And so there were a couple of issues that jumped out at me because this is such a hotly contested race, and it really sort of shows you where the politics are; they spent a lot of time in this debate going over the use of the word, ban. So is this 15-week ban that people have been talking about a limitation, and Dunnavant was really leaning in hard on this issue, saying she'd never voted for bans; she doesn't support a ban. She supports a limitation. And then VanValkenburg was standing by the use of the word ban. And I mean, I think it is very important to think about what words we use. I also think they're kind of both right, in a way, because it is a ban for most women. For some women, it's a limitation, right? But it is true for most women; this is a ban. So, that's something that voters will have to decide whether or not they want to vote in favor of this ban for most women, which is also a limitation in some limited exceptions. So I thought that was interesting. I also thought each of these candidates sort of tried their best to be kind of nonpartisan and centrist. I thought that was really fascinating. For example, Dunnavant said that she actually supports an assault weapon ban; you don't often find that among Republicans. VanValkenburg had a really nuanced answer in terms of when Whitney Evans asked him about transgender issues. And the issue of transgender girls competing in sports. And so VanValkenburg called it a loaded question. Still, he answered it by saying women should be able to compete at the highest levels, which is not necessarily a message that you hear Democrats talking about so much. So an interesting VPM debate; shout out to Whitney Evans; really interesting that both of these candidates tried their best to put on a moderate face for voters. 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah, they're in a district; obviously, that district should lean toward VanValkenburg.

Michael Pope  

+8.2 for the Democrats.

Lauren Burke  

Right. And that's definitely to his advantage. Shavon Dunnavant is definitely someone with a tough opponent because she's a medical doctor. And, of course, effectively the incumbent, even though it's a new district. She's a sitting member of the Senate. So it's good they had a substantive debate because we've seen so many debates where it was just sort of talking point lines after talking point lines; you're not really getting into the nuance of some of these policies. And life is full of nuance. So it's nice to see that there was a discussion that included some of that.

Michael Pope  

All right, Lauren, go ahead and open up that Pod Virginia mailbag. What are our listeners talking about?

Lauren Burke  

Well, we got some feedback about our episode with Don Scott. 

Michael Pope  

It's a good one, says Brian Devine. 

Lauren Burke  

Thank you, Brian. Yes, yes. Thank

Michael Pope  

you, Brian. We also got some feedback on our mystery early voting numbers in Williamsburg.

Lauren Burke  

Did you find out who was behind the spike in early voting?

Michael Pope  

Yes, we did. Randy Riffle. He is a candidate for the Williamsburg James City County School Board. And he sent us a message that said it's me, the Williamsburg James City County operative, driving out the vote in the Berkeley district.

Lauren Burke  

No, that's great. It's fantastic that in the Pam Garner Senate race against Republican senator Ryan McDougal, the spike in early voting is definitely there. A lot of people say well, it doesn't matter that there's a spike because it doesn't tell you who's gonna win. Obviously, Garner is in a very red district. But it's interesting to see on the entire map that the spike is right there in that area. Right in that very area and no other place in the Commonwealth of Virginia. 

Michael Pope  

Yes, yes, it is very interesting. All right. We also got a voicemail from the founder of CNalysis.com. That's Chaz Nuttycombe, friend of the podcast. And he wants Pod Virginia listeners to know about his election results page for election night. So, on election night, I'm sure your browser will be set to VPAP; they've got a great results page. Of course, there's also the official results page from the Department of Elections. But now, Chaz Nuttycombe wants you to know about his results page.

Chaz Nuttycombe  

The results page on CNalysis beats any state legislative result page ever, not only just this year, we'll have precinct projections, live precinct results, and projections for who's favored to win control of the House and the Senate based on the precincts reporting so far, and so much more. And you can find it by going to CNalysis or on my Twitter.

Michael Pope  

Now, while we're on the subject of Chaz Nuttycombe. I want to point out his latest forecast updates, starting with Joel Griffin. So that's the Democrat in Stafford who's running against Republican Delegate Tara Durant and independent candidate Monica Gary. So Chaz is moving this race from tilt-R to toss-up. So that's a demotion for the Republican Tara Durant and really good news for Joel Griffin in this Stafford Senate seat. So Chaz is also moving. Two House seats, one in Chesapeake and another in Chesterfield. And in the Chesapeake race, he's demoting Republican Baxter Ennis from a lean R to a tilt R, so that's good news for the Democrat in the race, Karen Jenkins. And over in Chesterfield, he's demoting Republican Carrie Coiner from a very likely R to a likely R, so that's good news for the Democrat in the race. So Chaz is gonna have his results page, which is definitely something you want to look at on election night. Lauren, he's making some last-minute forecast changes, all of which seem to benefit the Democrat here. Is this an indication of momentum heading into Election Day?

Lauren Burke  

I don't know about that. I just sort of wait until election night to know what the facts are on these things. Because you can clearly see that there's a bunch of money moving around, particularly from the Republicans over to Tara Durant, you can see that there's fear. Clearly, something is up in the Clint Jenkins race because all of a sudden, Republicans are panicking about the Clint Jenkins race. And Karen Jenkins is involved in House District 89. But you just never know until the night happens. And frankly, it's extremely hard to predict in an off-off year because the turnout numbers are very low. So we'll see. I'm not typically on election night; I've just sort of staring at the results on the page that everybody's staring at, which is the Virginia Board of Elections. Still, on this election night, I'll likely be in Richmond, running around with a bunch of folks, so I won't be looking at anything other than my phone and then people texting stuff, and then that's it. But you can see who's spooked. You can see the Republicans are certainly worried about some of these aforementioned races. It's pretty clear because you just see certain amounts of money, and it can't be because they're confident that that candidate will win. So it's not surprising, but there are some close races out there. There are some races. I mean, Stephen Miller Pitts, for example, was not expected to be ahead of anything. But clearly, every indication is that there's something going on with that race with regard to turnout and his very energetic campaigning; you can just feel like something's up there. And so we will see we will see on Tuesday. 

Michael Pope  

Yeah, he's an impressive guy. He was on a panel that I moderated in Richmond and was very well-spoken and smart. The audience seemed to react to him. Well, I mean, something might be happening in that race. It's still a likely R seat; I mean, the movement here is from very likely are too likely are, so it's still very, very likely that Carrier Corner pulls that out. Although Stephen Miller Pitts is a very impressive candidate. The real important last-minute forecast change from Chaz is moving Joel Griffin to the toss-up race. So that's definitely something to keep an eye on. 

Lauren Burke  

Yeah. So that race is definitely on everybody's board. Wow, we have to pay attention to that. These are all you know, we'll see. I think it's not easy to predict when you have low turnout, nobody at the top of the ticket, like a governor or something that can carry the electorate one way or the other or give you some indication about where the bigger turnouts would be. Honestly, it's going to be interesting. I would say it will probably be a long night, unfortunately, and we'll see what happens. We got some feedback about zoning changes under consideration in Alexandria. 

Michael Pope  

Listeners of the podcast heard my water cooler discussion last week of the racist history of zoning in Alexandria. I also published a version of that in the Alexandria Gazette packet, which had details of specific racist zoning decisions as well as specific language from these restrictive covenants that prohibited people of African descent from owning specific properties. And then other of these restrictive covenants require the property owners to be of the Caucasian race. So this is the language of white supremacy, right in these documents. So, anytime you write about the racist origin of anything, it gets a lot of attention, in this case, about zoning. So, I got a letter from the president of a civic association that I want to read here. So this is a president of a Civic Association sent me a letter about the article that I wrote about the racist origins of zoning and the proposal to account for that in Alexandria; this is the letter quote. I've read plenty of disingenuous and virtually fact-free articles in my time in Alexandria. Still, your article in this week's edition of the packet tops them all to make the story of the city's current zoning proposals all about race and rapport, that single-family neighborhoods are still exclusive to white people due to historic zoning ordinances is completely false and has been for decades and decades. There's plenty of evidence if you want to look for it of Black families living in single-family housing neighborhoods, including mine, but I'm sure you don't. Besides, you've already done the damage and added to the unnecessary divisiveness that some high-level city officials have engendered by making these issues all about race. While the racism of the early to mid-20th century in Alexandria and the rest of the southern US is well documented and undisputed. This story is about major current policy trends and the transformation of a post-20th century Mid-Atlantic City, not about race. Somehow, you missed all of that; wow, it's horrible journalism, and you should be ashamed of yourself. It's no wonder that the packet, sadly, has been in decline as a trusted and sought-after news source for this city for so many years. After more than three decades of reading your publication, please cancel my delivery to my home. And he puts his address. So you're the one who's not welcome here, says this president of the Civic Association. So, if you listen to our discussion in the water cooler last week about the racist origins of zoning, you will recognize what he's talking about here. So fact check my story. And my commentary on the podcast never said that single-family neighborhoods are exclusive to white people. I've never said that. So what he's talking about there. I mean, that's kind of a straw man argument because clearly, Black people live in single-family housing areas. But that's not what the story was about. So, going back to this issue, this is an important thing to think about. This is why I read the letter he keeps saying, you're making it about race. This is not about race. So, this is a theme you find when people are triggered by discussions of white privilege. This letter is actually dripping with white privilege, right? Like he liked it better when we didn't talk about systemic racism right when we didn't right recognize white supremacy when we didn't account for the way that zoning has created racist patterns in the geography of Alexandria. And so stop talking about it. Like this is a common thing that you find when people raise these issues, is you're always making this about race? Well, not really. I mean, the race, the racism was there; pointing it out is not making it about race. It's trying to have a discussion about it. And so this zoning discussion in Alexandria has really become a way to look at race and Alexandria, and how the historic patterns of racism, systemic racism from 100 years ago, is still influencing the geography of Alexandria today, and they're trying to account for it with a zoning change, which is very hotly debated. Lauren, it did pass the planning commission last week with a unanimous vote. So I think that's an indication when it actually heads to the Alexandria City Council later this month, it's probably going to pass. 

Lauren Burke  

Right. And to your larger point there, we in the United States have a special history that is sensitive for many people, to say the least. One of the facts about race in our country is that we're all on sort of different pages because it's not really formally taught in a formal way in our schools. 

Michael Pope  

Wait a second, Lauren, that would be an inherently divisive subject.

Lauren Burke  

Yes, it would be inherently divisive because, in fact, our history is inherently divisive. So the thing about it is when something negative is not taught about the facts of the country that you live in. You don't know about them, and then you find out for the first time through listening to a podcast or reading the 1619 project, people get mad; I mean, they get, they are confused, and they're confused because they've not heard these facts before or these facts were ignored, or in some way suppressed before, or presented as items that were not important because the people behind those items were seen as not important and that history was erased. So, finding out for the first time and bringing it up. And in fact, any sort of centering of what has been a marginalized group in this country for 400 years is a jolt to people. It really is because the status quo has been that the majority and their history have paid attention to their lives and their legacies. Their ancestors have paid attention to it, so any sort of pushback, or reordering of that, is hard for a lot of people to take; it really is. But I'm not sure why we're scared of our own history; most people are generally aware of the general facts. And then it just becomes a question of what that means in the present day and what those facts in that historical sense have caused in the present day. I mean, there's a lot of that, particularly in Virginia, particularly in the South. It's funny to me, too, that people have no problem discussing marginalized groups when we're talking about other countries. You know, and when some other country marginalizes a group because of religion, or skin color, or sex, or gender, we have no problem talking about that. But once we start really analyzing the history of the United States, that's when everybody gets very sensitive. You know, they take it very personally. And we're seeing that play on our politics right now with regard to this, you know, discussion about the teaching of history in the United States, and specifically in Virginia, which is an extremely history-rich place. So it is very interesting to hear you read that.

Michael Pope  

Let's celebrate some birthdays this week. 

Lauren Burke  

Today, Monday, November 6, we have two birthdays. It is the birthday of delegate Dawn Adams of Richmond, who is not running for reelection, and Kim Taylor of Dinwiddie, who is running for reelection in one of the year's most competitive races. 

Michael Pope  

Yeah, so happy birthday and good luck on your election. Thursday, November 9, is also a double birthday. It's the birthday of Senator Ryan McDougle of Hanover and also the birthday of Delegate Shelly Simonds of Newport News. So, they both have birthdays right after the election. So happy birthday to you.

Lauren Burke  

And Friday. Number 10 is the birthday of Adam Ebbin, one of my personal favorites of Alexandria. So, happy birthday all around. 

Michael Pope  

Ebbin is my senator, and I live in Alexandria. So happy birthday. Senator Ebbin. This week is also Vietnam War Memorial and Vietnam Recognition Week. And also Radiologic Technology Week. Say that three times fast.

Lauren Burke  

Yeah right. But perhaps the most important date on the calendar is Tuesday, November 7, which is election day. It's also take your kids to vote day. So make sure you get out and vote. 

Michael Pope  

Lauren, are you an Election Day voter? Are you an early voter?

Lauren Burke  

I'm an early voter, but I'm why this won't be an election day vote because I haven't voted yet. I'm probably going to vote; by the time this podcast runs, I will have voted on Saturday before five o'clock.

Michael Pope  

I actually really like voting on Election Day. There's something about going into the poll. I also like to, just as a journalist, see what it looks like in there. Know what the scene is like. Yeah, there is just something about voting on Election Day is fun. You go, there's always people hanging out outside the polls handing the lit, and you can hit him up. You know, have you seen lots of people around here? Sometimes, you get into actual discussions about issues. Imagine that. And it's kind of like a tailgating party scene, in a way. I guess it's a very nerdy tailgating party scene, but it's fun. 

Lauren Burke  

I've voted at a polling place where all the candidates are out there with their fliers, and everything is pretty exciting, actually.

Michael Pope  

voting on Election Day. Yeah. That's it for this episode of Pod Virginia.