Previewing the 2021 statewide election with Sean Perryman & Mike Allers
The 2021 election is upon us and the candidates have made their final pitch. Who's up? Who's down? What will happen on Tuesday? Democrats might have a blue wall in Northern Virginia, but Republicans smell blood. Sean Perryman is the Executive Director of the Payne Center for Social Justice Thurgood Marshall College Fund and a former Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor. Mike Allers is a former Republican candidate for the 50th House of Delegates district and co-host of Grand New Podcast. We analyze the statewide elections between Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin for Governor, Hala Ayala and Winsome Sears for Lieutenant Governor, and Mark Herring and Jason Miyares for Attorney General.
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Thomas Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Transition Virginia, the podcast that's still documenting the ongoing transition of power in Virginia. This week, Election Day is finally here.
Thomas Bowman
Who's up? Who's down? What can we expect to happen Tuesday? We'll get into all of that with our amazing panel.
Michael Pope
Returning to the podcast, is a former candidate for Lieutenant Governor. He's the former President of the Fairfax NAACP, and he's now the inaugural Executive Director of the Payne Center for Social Justice House under the Thurgood Marshall College Fund. He appeared on a previous episode that just happens to be one of our most popular episodes ever. Sean Perryman, thanks for coming back to the show.
Sean Perryman
Thanks for having me guys. I'm really excited to be here.
Thomas Bowman
And, also returning to the show, is another former candidate. He ran as a Republican for the House seat currently occupied by Delegate Lee Carter. Then he served on the campaign for a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Sears. You can hear him on The Grand New Podcast, Mike Allers, thanks for returning to the show.
Michael Allers
I'm so happy to be here, guys. Thank you.
Thomas Bowman
It's great to have you both. And Mike, I hear your time with Winsome Sears was a complete whirlwind. And I know that some listeners will want to hear that story, just like we do. And Sean, I bet you have a great campaign war story to tell. Will you both stick around after the show, and spill some tea for our patrons?
Sean Perryman
Absolutely.
Michael Allers
Let's get the hot water ready.
Michael Pope
That'll be great. Actually, I'm very excited to hear that. And so if you're listening to this podcast now, the only way you're going to hear that is to become a patron of the show, so you have access to our exclusive content. I know I would pay up after after that intro, but let's start with the campaign. Okay, so let's start at the top of the ticket. We have to start at the top of the ticket. What do we make of this race between former Governor Terry McAuliffe and the Republican Glenn Youngkin? I think the most interesting thing about this is how close it is. You know, I think a lot of Democrats would have expected McAuliffe to be a way ahead of Youngkin at this point, but it is virtually tied at this point. Sean Perryman, I'll throw it to you first. Why is this race so tight right now?
Sean Perryman
That's a great question. And before coming on the podcast, I said, "Let me let me do some research." So I'm going to read you this headline from October 17, 2017. "Gillespie, Northam deadlocked in Virginia Governor's race." So, October 17, 2017, Politico is reporting the virtual dead heat, according to the latest polling. So that's- this- we've seen this before. And of course, that turned out to be not true, Northam won by a huge margin.
Michael Pope
I feel like you're casting aspersions on my profession.
Sean Perryman
Well, I think the pollsters get to say what they want, and then everyone forgets about it. But- so that's what I like to point out. But I will say this, this is a very different election. We don't have Donald Trump in the White House. Actually, the momentum and the sort of energy, is on the Republican side, which we talked about during our very popular podcast, apparently. So there is a lot of energy there. So this will be an actual test. But I I always take these polls with a grain of salt, you know, just based off history, like most recent governor's election, they had is a dead heat right up until mid October, late October. And then, of course, that it turned out not to be true. But I'll say, this is a lot of energy among grassroots Republicans.
Michael Pope
Yeah, you mentioned the excitement, the momentum, the energy is on the Republican side. Mike Allers, why is that? Why are Republicans so excited? You hear all- people are always talking about the enthusiasm gap, right? Why are Republicans so enthusiastic about Youngkin and the Republican ticket?
Michael Allers
Well, I mean, arguably Glenn Youngkin, I've gotten to know him, great guy. He's the best candidate the Republicans have run since, I would argue, George Allen. He's personable, he's likable, he's really humble, despite, you know, coming from Carlisle, or despite, you know, some attacks from Terry. And, quite frankly, I mean, look, I loved Ed Gillespie, but Ed Gillespie did not have the fire in his belly. And Glenn is also not Ken Cuccinelli, or at least an overtly so, with a lot of his social beliefs, and I really think that makes a difference. I also believe, look, you know, as a Republican, we smell blood right now. I believe the Democrats are in a very weak position, and partly to blame, or at least most of it, I would say, yes, you can blame it on Biden, and how he's kind of bumbling things there. But I mostly blame Terry. Terry is best when he is a happy warrior. And in 2013, he ran as a happy warrior. He got Republican support against Cuccinelli. He's running as a very angry man, a very bitter man. Glenn has him visibly shook on stage. And Terry's not acting like he was ever governor before.
Michael Pope
I, wait, Mike, explain that last part here, "visibly shook on stage...that he doesn't," I would take issue with the, "happy warrior," thing, because I've been around McAuliffe on the campaign trail, and I get the same sort of, I mean, sometimes he actually comes across as kind of carnival barker ish, you know, I'm saying and like, but he always really enjoys what he's doing. And I don't get the sense that's changed.
Michael Allers
I feel on stage, especially with the debates, I feel like Youngkin was able to get under his skin. Youngkin seemed more polished, more rehearsed, more with it. Terry just seemed kind of rattled, and not kind of that easy, breezy competence that you saw in 2013. Um, so I'm just not seeing that from him. And I think appearances matter. And yeah, he's just not acting like a former governor. He's not acting like...he should have walked in here, and said, "This is mine. I was the Governor before," and brushed off the competition. But he's almost doing the mistake. It's a very different race. But remember how Eric Cantor gave Dave Brat tons of name ID, and made it all about, you know, he just constantly mentioned Dave Brat? That's what he's done to Youngkin. He's boosted Youngkin's profile tremendously.
Sean Perryman
I would push back against one thing, and, forgive me for this, because Mike knows the Republican Party better than me, of course. But we have to keep in mind that the context this is happening in. The Republicans feel like they had an election stolen from them. That's a very popular refrain among the Republican Party, so their base is fired up. This is their chance at revenge, in some ways. Democrats, on the other hand, we hammered into their heads ad nauseam, that this was the election of a lifetime last year. And it's sort of exhausting to say, "Okay, now we're getting this geared up again. But here's Terry McAuliffe again." No disrespect to Terry, I think, as someone said, he still does have that very high energy, happy warrior persona going. But what is there to get riled up from after the 2020 election? What is there to excite people about, and what's been disappointing, to me, at least, has been to hear the same message of, "Well, we need to just keep doing what we've been doing. And if we don't, then Trump is going to come back." It's very much a 2015 message of, "Trump is bad. And we're not Trump. So therefore vote for us." I think that's part of why we don't see the same sort of, at least it doesn't seem as visible or audible enthusiasm on the left.
Michael Allers
And Sean, Terry is kind of arguing for a return back to him, but he's almost ignoring the fact that Northam's been in there for so long. But then I truly believe the Democrats, if they wanted to do that, turn the page narrative on Trump, on this Republican Party, what have you, would have done better right now with the Jennifer McClellan, with anybody else that ran for governor, minus Lee Carter. Right now Terry, a return to Terry McAuliffe, or return to the past, doesn't seem to fit the moment right now, and I think Youngkin represents something fresh, whether you- whether you like it or not. And look, I'm talking to a lot of Democrat who they're gonna vote Democrat the rest of the ticket but they're going to vote for Youngkin because they said they just don't like Terry, this does nothing for him.
Thomas Bowman
Interesting. And I'm wondering, because the Democratic primary voters elected Terry over two qualified Black women, what role is Princess Blanding going to play in this race? In 2013, when Terry McAuliffe first ran, he had Rob Sarvis running the third party Libertarian candidate, and got seven points, and that made up the difference between Terry and Cuccinelli to put Terry over the edge. But if Rob Sarvis had not been in that race, Cuccinelli would have been governor. So I'm wondering, can we expect a similar dynamic? Is there any chatter that we're hearing from the Democrats, Sean?
Sean Perryman
Yeah, and Princess Blanding is going to be the wildcard, like you said, if you look at that last election, a third party candidate can shake things up in a close race. You know, honestly, when I hear kind of the progressive circles, and the left of the Democratic Party, it's sort of this feeling of, you know, what, we're tired of being scared into voting for a particular person, because of the lesser of two evils, if you will. There is that sentiment that, you know, we survived Trump, we can survive whoever else. And we're, we're being taken for granted in this party. I've heard that sentiment out there. Now, that's been said before, people often come home and vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is, but I do think there is concerns with this ticket, that you're not meeting the moment that we're in, that there's concerns with the how the primary went. And at the same time, it's it- besides all that, obviously, we're talking inside baseball, I think most people are just exhausted from elections. And you know, they're worried about COVID, they're worried about their kids going to school. They're sort of tuned out to this. So I look at this election as a real test of, how strong is that blue wall in Northern Virginia? What's the turnout going to look like? That's going to be a big part of it. And yeah, that's...I think this is going to be a real test of statewide, do Democrats have such a solid advantage because of Northern Virginia, that it just doesn't matter? Because I do not see the enthusiasm out there, to be frank.
Michael Pope
So before we move on to a discussion about the campaign for Lieutenant Governor, I want to ask about the closing argument that Glenn Youngkin is making here with featuring the parent who raised concerns about the Pulitzer Prize winning novel from Toni Morrison, "Beloved." This goes- this is a long story that goes back, you know, when McAuliffe was Governor, the first time, these parents in Fairfax County were very upset that their child was reading, Toni Morrison's, "Beloved," in high school, and raised concerns, there was a bill in the General Assembly that would have required parental notification. McAuliffe vetoed the bill. And so I mean, this, this concept seems like an odd closing argument. And I want to remind people, this is really ancient history. But way back in 2003, 2003, all of these issues were part of a campaign in Fairfax County for the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman, there was a school board member by the name of Michelle Brickner, and this was part of her campaign to become Chairwoman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors that, you know, she wanted to ban these books. And Gerry Connolly decisively beat Brickner in the 2003 election for Fairfax Chairman. So I kind of feel like this, actually, this question has been litigated, and the decision has been made, at least for Northern Virginia voters. Mike Allers, what do you make of this discussion of parental notification, and the notification itself would lead...I mean, if you talk to teachers, they would say, "Anything where you have to notify parents of sexually explicit materials, that's an effective ban." So you know, on the campaign trail, we've been hearing people talk about banning books. And the notification is, essentially, a ban of sorts. Mike, I was- what do you make of this closing argument? Is this a good strategy for Youngkin or did he make a mistake here?
Michael Allers
Well, look, as an educator, I completely, you know, I understand all sides of this. I understand why some parents may be concerned, you know, I mean, not just about, for example, "Beloved," but I'm sure you guys all remember, people were concerned about Harry Potter promoting witchcraft in school. I remember that was the big thing when I was in elementary school. So there's was going to be kind of, I don't want to say book burning element, but there's always going to be you know, people going after books, right? However, I would draw a line, as an educator, you know, as, as someone who is an avid reader, between, "Beloved," which is a classic work, everybody could agree with that. And Toni Morrison, you know, is a phenomenal author, an American treasure, and some of the other books that were brought up at the school board meetings, where it wasn't written by an American treasure, it really just seemed like a trash novel. So I think those are different because Toni Morrison highlights the historical struggle and realities, as opposed to just sexually explicit images for the sake of being shocking.
Michael Pope
Mike, keep in mind, that commercial that the Youngkin campaign put together, as the Youngkin campaign closing argument, featured the mother who raised objections about Toni Morrison's, "Beloved," in Fairfax County Schools.
Michael Allers
Yes, and I think that whoever put that ad together should have done more research. It is a misstep, because I would have focused on, for example, if we're going to talk about books, there's plenty of other books to go after. I do not think, "Beloved," should be one of those books we should go after. However, I think minds are made up at this stage in the game. I don't think anybody's going to defect from this. So, I don't think it's going to sway anybody's minds. But if I was there, internally, I would not have done that.
Michael Pope
Well, the issue with, "Beloved," is singular, in its importance because, this is the parent, and this is the book that prompted the bill that got through the Republican led General Assembly that Terry McAuliffe put his veto on. So, I mean, "Beloved," actually plays a very important role, if you're going to criticize former Governor McAuliffe for his actions as Governor. Sean Perryman, I'm wondering, when voters look at this situation where you got a Republican candidate for Governor, who is casting aspersions on an extremely well regarded Pulitzer Prize winning African American woman, what- how do people interpret this?
Sean Perryman
I'm trying to think of the appropriate way to answer this. You know, I am actually not going to come after Youngkin on this. I think this is just like, apropos of just a nonsense that's going on in our two party system. I've watched this play out, this, "Beloved," thing, and it's the stupidest thing I've ever seen in my life, both from Youngkin using it as his closing argument, to Terry, buying the books and handing them out to reporters. There are real problems, like in Hampton Roads, there are waters that, uh, you know, routinely shut down roadways. There are all sorts of issues from schooling, to the economy. I mean, obviously Youngkin brought this up, but it's just such a stupid issue. It's, and I know, we've talked about this a little bit with the Critical Race Theory. I think, what, to your point, I think this has been litigated before, is often brought up in school board elections here in Fairfax County, and in Loudoun County. It's never really that successful. But I think the Republicans are trying to seize on this whole Critical Race Theory fire they have going. I ultimately don't think it's going to change anyone's mind in either way, but I think it just sort of, to me, to the average person, it's emblematic of what's wrong with this, like we're talking about, "Beloved," it's just sort of absurd.
Thomas Bowman
Alright, let's take a break because when we come back, we'll talk about the Lieutenant Governor's campaign and the race for Attorney General.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're joined by Sean Perryman and Mike Allers. Now, gentlemen, both of you had a personal relationship to this next race we're going to talk about, which is the campaign for Lieutenant Governor. So Sean Perrynman, we have to start with you. You were, in fact, a candidate for Lieutenant Governor in that election, which of course, was eventually voters decided for Hala Ayala, who is running against Winsome Sears. What do you make of that campaign?
Sean Perryman
Well, my own personal campaign feels like a lifetime ago, but of this campaign, I can't imagine that too many people are going to split their vote at this rate. I think whoever they vote for at the top, they will likely vote for for Lieutenant Governor is my sense of it. Even when I was running for Lieutenant Governor, it just is not as a high profile races the Governor's race. You're running a statewide election, and you're pretty much cast under there. So, you know, I watched the two. It's been interesting. I haven't seen anything out of their, as far as policy, that has caught my eye. I was kind of surprised when Hala said that she didn't really follow what was going on with the parole issue. But aside from that, I haven't seen a ton from that race that would diverge from the Governor's race. I really think whoever people are feeling for Governor, that's probably what they're going to do for Lieutenant Governor race. The AG race, I could actually see something different than that, but that's probably what I see happening with LG race.
Michael Pope
We'll get into the AG race in a second, but returning to the LG race, you said there wasn't really a lot that has emerged. I think one of the most memorable moments of the campaign, was the moment when Winsome Sears told a reporter on CNN that, she was not going to divulge her vaccination status. Mike Allers, what did you make of that?
Michael Allers
Well, as your listeners might know, I served as Winsome Sears Press Secretary, I got to know her well. That happened after I departed from the campaign. But it is consistent with Winsome's beliefs. I don't think there's anything she did wrong, by that measure. I mean, sure, I'm vaccinated and Youngkin vaccinated, too, and he proudly said so, um, however, she is truly kind of a private person, even though she is a public figure. And it is consistent with what she said on the campaign. I do not know, personally, if she is or not, but, when I was with Winsome Sears, at outdoor events, she didn't wear a mask, in indoor events, she actually wore masks. So she remained safe. I never saw her put herself really in danger. So it's consistent with her with her privacy. That wasn't the misstep that I saw after I departed the campaign.
Thomas Bowman
Winsome Sears has actually not been very public or present in the entire race. It seems like Glenn Youngkin is carrying the majority of the load and Miyares for AG. Mike, where is Winsome? What is she doing on the campaign trail?
Michael Allers
Sure. Well, you know, I actually think this is going to play in to what's ultimately going to happen, I'm actually going to break from Sean on this one. I believe, you know, come November 2, we're going to have a Youngkin, Ayala administration. When I was on the campaign, I advocated for a bold strategy, that's she should talk to media, not just conservative friendly, because, you know, she is more of the base candidate on the ticket. But also, too, you know, outside circles as well, because I believe there was a large number of independent voters that were up for grabs. When myself and several others were abruptly kind of shoved out with the new regime change brought in, that all changed. And they basically wanted to kind of tuck her away. And Winsome is great in front of a crowd, Winsome knows had to stir people up, and get people emotional, and they didn't want to tap into that. And that is their strategy. And one of the many disagreements that I've had and that I've seen, it seems like they're just collecting a paycheck and muzzling her the last few months of the campaign, which I think is a mistake.
Sean Perryman
That's such an interesting statement, Mike, because I remember following the caucuses for the Republicans, and she was sort of, she came out of nowhere.
Michael Allers
Yeah.
Sean Perryman
And...but I had heard, for a long time, the rumblings of how great she was in front of crowds. So it's interesting to hear you say that that's a strategy being led by someone else.
Michael Allers
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it definitely...I mean, I know Winsome wants to be out there. I mean, personally, I mean, she's, she's a firecracker. She wants to be seen. She wants to be, you know, heard, even though she is private, but she has conviction. And she truly believes in what she's saying. But unfortunately, it seems like with the leadership change, they don't want her to be as vocal, which I think is going to lead to, ultimately a split. Now Winsome is a base candidate. Our strategy involved opening up to different voters, for example, Black voters and voters of color. However, by muzzling her, and by keeping her kind of, away tucked in the corner, and with Hala being so visible, and I've talked to people, that Democrats are going to vote the rest of the ticket Democrat, but they're going to vote Youngkin and I think that's what's going to happen. Youngkin's gonna squeak it out, but I don't see Winsome, with this strategy play, in Richmond, the Richmond suburbs or Northern Virginia.
Michael Pope
Alright, we also need to get to the race for Attorney General. So this is our lone incumbent here on the ballot, Mark Herring. So I guess McAuliffe kind of counts as an incumbent, he's a former incumbent, so he's has the incumbent image to him. But Herring is a legit incumbent running against Delegate Jason Miyares. Sean Perryman, what do you make of this race for Attorney General?
Sean Perryman
I'm not going to bet against an incumbent. I think Mark Herring has been a good Attorney General. The only thing I would say is if there is some groundswell of Republican support there, this race goes Republican by some, you know, significant margin and Governor, that would be the one exception, but like I said, incumbents naturally have an advantage. I don't think Mark Herring has done anything wrong in that sense that where we can really point to and say, "This guy's a failure, we need to fire him or change his job." I personally like him. Obviously, with the issue of law enforcement and enforcing laws, that is something that's red meat for the Republicans right now. Probably less so as we get further into 2021. But I just can't see people not electing Mark Herring for a third term. It's a very familiar name. And like I said, there's nothing glaring that would say we need to get rid of him.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And I've heard speculation that Mark Herring could actually wind up coming in with a higher raw vote share than the top of the ticket for Terry McAuliffe, and that is extraordinarily rare. Mike, is that something that you are looking at for the Republican side? Or do the Republicans think Jason Miyares has this in the bag, and regardless of what Terry does, Miyares will win at the end of the day over Mark Herring?
Michael Allers
Well, I mean, look, Jason, I've got known him. He's a great guy. He's really committed. I think he's the strongest candidate for Attorney General, that we've had in a long time. And I think he would make a phenomenal Attorney General. I think his problem is twofold. Sean alluded to the incumbency of Mark Herring, which Mark Herring wasn't knocked out in a primary. And that surprised me. I thought Jay Jones had that in the bag. Herring survived that. I do believe, and if you pay- if you look at the breakdown of that, his support came from Northern Virginia, his corner of Loudoun, Fairfax, all of that. I think that will hold. Jason is based in Virginia Beach, and maybe he can make some inroads into the Richmond suburbs. But I think Herring solidly has Northern Virginia. And that's why Herring is going to get the edge.
Michael Pope
So before we go, I want to circle back around with predictions. So Mike Allers, you already made a prediction, that I, actually, would love to ask you about, which is this idea of the split ticket. You predicted a Youngkin/Ayala administration? So, it's actually pretty rare for voters to split the ticket. It's not unheard of. In 1993, voters chose a Republican Governor and a Democratic LG. In 2005, voters chose a Democratic Governor and a Republican LG. So you're thinking we're gonna see a split ticket here with a Youngkin/Ayala administration?
Michael Allers
Absolutely. And I think the margins are gonna go Youngkin squeaks out by 1.5. Hala wins by 10. And Herring wins by five.
Michael Pope
Sean Perryman, any predictions?
Sean Perryman
I'm gonna predict that's wrong. I just can't see that many people splitting their tickets. Sorry, Mike.
Michael Allers
But Sean, crazier things have happened. It's a brave new world now.
Sean Perryman
You're right. You're right. Crazier things have happened. I'm just gonna- my prediction, I won't predict either way. I'll say, you know, obviously, I'm a Democrat. But I think whoever, whatever party wins at the top, will win down the line, as far as statewide seats go. I don't see people splitting their ticket like that.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I actually, I agree with Sean, I think it's all or nothing for everybody. If Youngkin wins, the Republicans won, not just the other statewides, but also the General Assembly. And if Terry McAuliffe wins, we're most interested in the margin, right? So if he's over five, then the Dems have held the House, the Dems most likely won all their other statewide races. If Terry is coming in under two, that's not so certain. And it's important, also, to point out, I was actually just talking to another Republican politico today, who says that Youngkin thinks that he needs to keep Terry McAuliffe under 63% in Fairfax, in order to win. Now, for some context, Democrats haven't done below 63% since Tim Kaine, in Fairfax. So, I just don't see that with the current demographic trends. You're not going to roll back the clock on 15 years of those trends heading more and more blue in Northern Virginia, to that extent. Fairfax County is starting to come in over 70% for Democrats. So I think that's probably where Fairfax is gonna wind up once again.
Sean Perryman
And I'll add this, just my own two cents. If the Democrats win this by handily a handy margin, I can't see a near future, or future within the next 10, 15 years, where Republicans win statewide here.
Michael Allers
I actually agree, it's make or break. Tt's the end game for Republicans.
Sean Perryman
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Michael Allers
This is the last shot, and arguably the best candidate for Governor that they're going to get, in a while, if this is the case.
Sean Perryman
Yeah, the climate that they're in, this is their best and last shot, and if they get beaten by like I said, they had the race close to 2017. If they get beaten by margins like that, then they don't have a shot in any near future.
Thomas Bowman
So that's all for this episode. Stick around next week, because right after the election, we are going to do a joint episode with Bold Dominion, another podcast out in Charlottesville. They're doing great work. Go ahead and give them a listen because we'll be doing a snap, post election wrap, as soon as we have those results.
