Superintendent Resignation, Trouble With the Education Budget, and Amazon Pausing HQ2
One day after Virginia Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow announced her resignation as the state's top education leader, Governor Glenn Youngkin (R - Virginia) participated in Read Across America Day in Louisa County. Since Balow's letter of resignation did not include a reason for her decision to step down, CBS 6 reporter Tyler Layne asked the governor to shed light on the situation.
Michael will be speaking at the Arlington Historical Society about The Byrd Machine in Virginia this Thursday, March 9.
IN THE NEWS:
The Department of Education's $200 million mistake in estimating school aid still hasn't been fixed--what analysts are saying and how the General Assembly's initial "skinny budget" doesn't go far enough to solve the problem.
Virginia’s superintendent of public instruction, Jillian Balow, has resigned--and Governor Youngkin still hasn't answered why, despite facing direct questions about what went down.
According to a new poll, Governor Youngkin's job approval is at 57 percent, and his unfavorability rating is at 35 percent. The poll also explores interesting head-to-head matchups between President Biden and prospective 2024 Republican presidential candidates in Youngkin, De Santis, and Trump.
At the Watercooler:
- Delegate Lamont Bagby has won the Democratic firehouse primary for Jennifer McClellan’s Senate seat.
- Amazon pauses development on its HQ2 in the face of remote work.
Trivia: What's the name for the old-fashioned practice of political candidates serving booze to voters. Hint: BLANK the BLANK with BLANK
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Tom Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Pod Virginia, a podcast that is not looking forward to springing ahead next weekend, Thomas. Daylight Saving times sucks.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I'm glad my phone does it automatically. But you do you update your stove and microwave and all that stuff?
Michael Pope
I probably shouldn't admit this on the podcast. But no, in my car, I just left at the wrong time. And I drive around, and it's the wrong time. And I just live with it.
Thomas Bowman
But that makes me itch. But I fully support not changing it as an institution.
Michael Pope
All right. Well, let's get to the news. That math error is not fixed.
Thomas Bowman
What?
Michael Pope
Yeah, really. Remember when the Department of Education made a $200 million dollar mistake in estimating basic aid for local school divisions? Well, that problem has not been fixed, according to the Commonwealth Institute and The Virginia Education Association. Laura Goran at the Commonwealth institute says the skinny budget was only an appetizer.
Laura Goren
The error was $201 million. And skinny budget only provides $16.8 million towards fixing it. So at that level, it's sort of obvious that it doesn't really fully hold them harmless.
Thomas Bowman
The Commonwealth Institute is saying that only $20 million of the $200 million gap has been closed.
Michael Pope
That's right. The folks at the Virginia Education Association also did their own analysis of the skinny budget stopgap measure and came to the exact same conclusion. Here's VA Policy Analyst Chad Stewart.
Chad Stewart
They kind of move the goalposts internally in order to claim they made school divisions whole. While in reality, it never actually addressed the $201 million gap that everyone else was talking about publicly.
Michael Pope
So, Thomas, everybody seems to think that this problem has been fixed. As a matter of fact, just last night, I was at a Civic Association event, and I was chatting with the Mayor of Alexandria, and he thought it had been fixed. But the Commonwealth Institute says, no, it hasn't been fixed. The VAE says no, it hasn't been fixed, and they came to the exact same conclusion on these numbers. So this is a hole that Virginia still needs to dig out of. One of the people I talked to about this last week was Delegate Mark Sickles, who's on the Appropriations Committee and one of the budget conferees, and he said it's probably kind of a good thing that the General Assembly failed to pass a budget before they left town, because now they can actually figure out a way to fix this problem before they pass a budget.
Thomas Bowman
Do we know how this mistake I've made? I mean, clearly, this is a situation in which legislators would have looked to the Department of Education to give them a number and tell them what they need to fix the problem.
Michael Pope
Well, there's a compounding series of errors on top of errors, you know, so the original error was last summer when the Department of Education told school divisions across Virginia that they should be expecting X amount of money, and then they budgeted a smaller amount. And then there was another problem in December when they did the same thing. They told the local school divisions they should be expecting X amount of dollars, and then they budgeted less money. So there were some technical fixes in the December budget to fix the June and July problem, but then the December problem had never been fixed. And everybody was eager to leave town and also, and they wanted to believe that the problem had been fixed to the right. I mean, like all these elected officials, they didn't want to answer questions from people about how this $200 million hole was unfixed to the tune of $180 million. And so, yeah, this is really interesting to see how this is gonna play out.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, also a case in point for institutional reform in the legislature. But, Michael, that's fascinating. And I guess it is a good thing that they weren't able to figure out the budget. However, that seems weird to say. But I wonder if that explains anything in your next story.
Michael Pope
While yes, it does. In fact, that's a great segue. Let's move on to our next story. Superintendent resigns, Virginia superintendent of Public Instruction is calling it quits. And nobody seems to be getting a straight answer as to why Jillian Balow came to Virginia from Wyoming, where she was elected statewide as the superintendent of public instruction for Wyoming. And that was just last year and 2022. Just a few weeks into the job. She said psych and dumped the voters who elected her to join the young cut administration.
Thomas Bowman
Balow faced criticism for the proposed rewrite of Virginia's history standards, which the Governor acknowledged contained omissions and mistakes, you know, things like leaving out Martin Luther King, stuff like that, Michael.
Michael Pope
And then there's that $200 million math error that we just talked about, well, that still has not been fixed. And so when Balow announced her sudden and unexpected departure, people were wondering if the Governor had asked her to step down. So far, the Governor and his communications team have refused to answer that question.
Thomas Bowman
Shout out to Tyler Lane, WTVR CBS 6 in Richmond; he tried to get a straight answer out of the Governor; check out this exchange from a press gaggle last week.
Glenn Youngkin
I am happy to take a few questions.
Tyler Lane
Well, Governor, some big news yesterday; I have a yes or no question for you. Did you ask for Jillian Balow's resignation?
Gleen Youngkin
Well first of all, I want to thank the superintendent for her commitment to the Commonwealth. She stood for excellence, and she loves kids. And I couldn't, couldn't ask for any better qualifications from her. And I wish her the best. And all that she's doing, one of the most important things we recognize is that in Virginia today, we have had severe learning loss, and that learning loss was caused by a lot of decisions that were made prior to the pandemic and then exacerbated during the pandemic. And so we have got to build back to high expectations; we can lift the ceiling and the floor at the same time. And so we're moving forward to find the next State Superintendent of Education. And I'm looking forward to a great candidate we've just started. And Secretary Guidera is going to cover things on a day-to-day basis.
Tyler Lane
Yes, sir. Did you ask for the resignation?
Glenn Youngkin
So that's so, you know, part of what we are we are managing right now is recognition; we have a big transition. And education is hugely important. And we want to make sure that we have the best person that we can do that. And I just am so appreciative of the superintendents, commitment to the Commonwealth.
Tyler Lane
But will you answer the question?
Glenn Youngkin
There we go. Yes. Next.
Michael Pope
Yes. Next, I'm going to completely ignore your question, despite the fact that you've repeated it three times.
Thomas Bowman
Is that a yes? Glenn Youngkin did ask for the resignation. Yes, next.
Michael Pope
Wow. Thomas, I'm gonna blame you and your profession for trying to tell candidates and elected officials that they can get away with not answering questions from journalists.
Thomas Bowman
Well, definitely blame the consultant that didn't prep their client better to handle an exchange like this. Yeah, that's brutal to watch, for one. But it also tells me yes, and Michael, what do you think someone's got to fall on the sword for Glenn Youngkin to stay on a presidential ambition train?
Michael Pope
Yeah, clearly, she had a very controversial time in office. And, you know, going back to this Wyoming thing, she was just elected last year, in 2022. Statewide in Wyoming, and just a few weeks, I mean, I have a problem when people get elected to a position, and they don't serve their whole term, especially when they leave so early in their term. I mean, you've been elected to a term, serve it, you know, you're asking that this is a contractual obligation here like you're asking the voters to put you in office for a set period of time, do your job and be there for that amount of time.
Thomas Bowman
I agree with you. Obviously, given certain unforeseeable circumstances and setbacks.
Michael Pope
Of course, there are reasons for stepping down.
Thomas Bowman
But it should be the exception, not the rule.
Michael Pope
And a good reason is not joining the young administration, or any, I mean, whatever.
Thomas Bowman
Let's get this ambition strain back on the rails.
Michael Pope
Well, actually, our next story is probably going to do that. So moving on to that.
Glenn Youngkin is hitting his stride. Governor Glen Youngkin's job approval is at 57%, and his unfavorability rating is already 35%. According to a new poll from Roanoke College, those are the best numbers that the Governor has ever seen in this poll.
Bryan Parasons
It's likely to be explained by a sort of Virginia effect.
Michael Pope
That's Bryan Parsons, the senior political analysis analyst at Roanoke College. He says the poll results show an interesting trend here for the upcoming presidential election. They show that Virginia voters prefer Joe Biden to Donald Trump, so Biden would win Virginia, and Trump would lose Virginia. But they also showed that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would beat Biden in Virginia. And it also showed something really interesting in a hypothetical matchup, Glenn Youngkin would beat Joe Biden in Virginia 55% to 39%.
Bryan Parasons
His approval numbers are up; his favourability is up, approval for the General Assembly's up, and optimism about the way things are going in Virginia is up. And so that's certainly having an impact on how that hypothetical matchup with President Biden plays out.
Michael Pope
So yeah, Youngkin is having a moment.
Thomas Bowman
Sort of. Two-thirds of Virginians think he needs to sit down and just focus on being Governor and not run for President. And only 42% of Republicans, that's less than half, think that he should seek the Republican nomination.
Michael Pope
There was an interesting disparity here between the respondents in this poll saying, well, yeah, I would vote for Youngkin over Biden. If that's the choice for President, I will vote for Youngkin. Yeah, those same people are saying Youngkin should not run for President.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And that poll also showed some of the more ideological issues like abortion and guns and things like that are taking a backseat to more mainstream Main Street concerns about jobs and the economy, and education, or rather, inflation.
Michael Pope
I was kind of taken by the part of the poll that talked about book banning. Even Republicans, 61% of Republicans in that poll, say they oppose removing inappropriate books from public school libraries. So I mean, I think that probably should be in the back of people's minds as they're on the campaign trail this year. But also, when they're introducing bills next year, that. I think a lot of Republicans believe they think that this is going to be popular with the base and popular with voters. But this poll shows the majority of Republicans think that's a terrible idea.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, look, I would even go so far as to say, Michael, Virginians are rejecting the conservative agenda that Youngkin represents. Look, we're glad that he's not screwing it up. But just because you're willing to vote on a favourability poll doesn't mean you're willing to vote for Glenn Youngkin. In fact, obviously, more people are willing to vote for DeSantis or Trump. But I would say that it does demonstrate Virginia's commitment to trying to move forward, broadly speaking, and the fact that Virginians are fed up with some of the more cultural warrior items like book banning and things that he's like, oh, wait for me too, whenever Ron DeSantis does something, and he's just reacting. He's not a leader. I think that goes into why people think that he just needs to focus on being Governor and stop screwing over Virginia.
Michael Pope
The other part of the poll that really jumped out at me was there's section on confidence in public education. And so, if you look at the Republican numbers, they're fascinating because only 39% of Republicans say they have confidence in public education in Virginia. And the number is even worse for the rest of the country. So in this poll, 28% of Republicans said they had confidence in public education in the United States of America, like nationwide. That's extremely low confidence for public education among Republicans.
Thomas Bowman
Yet extremely high returns for whichever PR agency has these for-profit school institutions as their clients. Michael, undermining public education has been the goal of leftover segregationists since the Brown v Board decision. And we see the results of segmented messaging and leftover cultural policies in a certain portion of the voting bloc.
Michael Pope
There's another disparity. Oftentimes, polls can tell you conflicting things; we just talked about how most Virginians don't want Youngkin to run for President, and yet at the same time, they would vote for him or Joe Biden. So that's kind of giving you kind of two pieces of information that are moving in the opposite direction. Same thing here with all this education stuff that we've just been talking about. When you ask voters what's what issues are most important to them? They say economy, inflation, abortion, gun policy, COVID-19 race voting, climate change, immigration, and crime; they don't say education. It's not even on top of the issues.
Thomas Bowman
Well, I would say book banning is de-facto education.
Michael Pope
But they asked questions about book banning. So people were responding to questions that Roanoke College asked them. And an open-ended question of what issues are most important to your education did not rank.
Thomas Bowman
Well, I think if you ask the book banning, you might get a different result than education. So I would say that one of the weaknesses of this poll is that every single academic research poll like this is just a snapshot in time; it usually prompts more follow-up questions. And so be careful settling into the numbers or letting that snapshot start to frame out a narrative one way or the other because it's probably just not helpful. But it is true that most Virginians don't want Glenn Youngkin running for President. It is true that most of them are fed up with the culture warrior policies, and it's not registering. Get your talking points ready on the economy and get your talking points ready on what you're going to do for hardworking Virginians because that's what they're focused on.
Michael Pope
But they like Youngkin. Also, we shouldn't leave this discussion without the highest popularity he's ever had, 52%, and the highest job approval he's ever had, 57%. He's popular, and he's having a moment here.
Thomas Bowman
He's palatable, and he's having a moment here. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's popular. But, like, let's give it to him; he's over 50. So that's, like, good for him; let him bask in it for a couple of days. But don't let the success go to your head, Glenn, and his staff. The Commonwealth of Virginia is expecting some dividends out of its Governor. A
Michael Pope
All right, let's play some trivia.
Last week, we asked you how many Confederate statues are in Capitol Square? and we even gave you a hint that the answer was more than one. So Thomas, how many Confederates are there in Capitol Square?
Thomas Bowman
All right, well, there are only three Confederates in Capitol Square Michael,
Michael Pope
Three Confederate, so it is really interesting that you know, there's been so much time and attention to Monument Avenue. And I think in the public imagination, most people think that all Confederates have been removed, but that is not the case. There are three.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, don't bury the lede. Who are they?
Michael Pope
So the one that people are probably most familiar with when we ask the question, I bet you lots of our listeners said, Stonewall Jackson. So Stonewall Jackson was a very famous Confederate general. There's a statue of him in Capitol Square. There are two other lesser-known Confederates in Capitol Square. There's Dr. Hunter McGuire, who was the Surgeon General of the Confederacy. He's actually seated, a statue of a man who is seated. And then there's extra Billy Smith, who served as a Confederate governor and then also as a Confederate Major General. By the way, that nickname extra Billy came from his time as postmaster when he was known for charging people extra fees. That's extra Billy Smith. Yes. He's a character.
Thomas Bowman
Alright. So you got three Confederates on Capitol Square that all could have come down when the Democrats had full control of all of the decision-making bodies over Capitol Square? Why are they still there?
Michael Pope
Yeah, Democrats had their time and power and they could have taken these out, and they didn't.
Thomas Bowman
While everyone's focusing on the lee statue and everything else, why why not? That's so weird, Michael.
Michael Pope
Maybe one day, maybe one day, we'll get rid of Stonewall Jackson and his confederates. But hey, so our trivia question for next week is about political candidates serving booze to voters.
Thomas Bowman
Pro.
Michael Pope
Pro. So the trivia question is, what was the name of this practice? So this was very common for a very long time in the early history of Virginia, for candidates to serve liquor to voters, and so they would actually bring the liquor to the voting place. So this was a time when people voted at courthouses and you had to like vote Viva Vocia votes.
Thomas Bowman
Now you have to leave the liquor at the fundraiser.
Michael Pope
So they would basically bring huge vats of liquor to the polls. And so right before people were voting, they would liquor them up. And George Washington famously lost his first election for the House of Burgesses because he did not bring enough liquor for the voters. And he learned his lesson and later got elected after he brought enough booze. So this is a long-standing tradition of practice in Virginia history, which had a nickname, by the way. That's, so that's the trivia question. I'll give you a hint. It's blank, the blank with blank.
Thomas Bowman
As in, then drink enough that your mind goes blank.
Michael Pope
Speaking of your mind going blank, let's get over to the watercolor.
Michael Pope
Thomas, what's the latest you're hearing around the watercolor?
Thomas Bowman
Oh man, where do we start? Michael, there's been so much news here at the very end of the week; as we're recording this morning, Amazon announced that they're going to stop construction on HQ 2 for the foreseeable future. Because everybody's working remotely, that's a huge blow to the local economy there. I wonder how much advance notice, if any, some of the decision-makers got, but that's a huge blow.
Michael Pope
That is a huge blow, yeah.
Thomas Bowman
it also speaks to the challenges they've said in their public statements and their quarterly earnings calls and whatnot that they've indicated for several quarters now that they've witnessed a slowdown in their volumes and they're struggling with supply chain management because they do something called that's like supply chain light. This is a fun rabbit hole that is tangent to go down.
Michael Pope
supply chain light is a fun rabbit hole?
Thomas Bowman
That might may or may not be the like technical jargony term for it. But what it means is you only ever have enough at one time to get you exactly what you need. You don't have stockpiles and warehouses anymore. You have an efficient streamlined supply chain from the manufacturer in China all the way to your front door when you order on Amazon. And so that's been incredibly disrupted because of COVID and ports of Shanghai getting shut down for like six weeks or three months here and there and, and the factories due to COVID zero policies have placed on all those warehouses and manufacturing sites over there. So just fucks everything up. And then also like the Amazon quality products are like all seen as like knockoffs. So you've got like a natural consumer turnover in their tastes and preferences away from Amazon's cheap, shitty products, and they're all looking for something nice, which makes sense if they've been at home staring at their cheap builder's grade, whatever, for three years now, because they're all working from home. So like, this is a very big systemic problem and a fun tangent to go down. But I was wondering, like, three or four weeks ago, what other past quarterly calls I was like, I wonder if HQ 2 is in jeopardy? And I didn't voice it at the time; no reason to, but it makes complete sense given their public statements.
Michael Pope
Yikes.
Thomas Bowman
What are you hearing about the water cooler?
Michael Pope
Well, I am hearing people talk about the Bryd Machine of Virginia. So the Bryd Machine tour continues. I will be speaking at the Arlington historical society about my new book this week, on Thursday, March 9th. So if you're in Northern Virginia and you want to get a signed copy of the Bryd Machine, and of course, you do come out to the Marymount University, the Reinsch Library auditorium, I'm not sure how to pronounce that. It's on Glebe Road in Arlington. It's on the Marymount University campus. The event starts at 7 PM. And I'd love to see you there. So coming out, get your signed copy of the Bryd Machine.
Thomas Bowman
I used to live down the road from right there. When I lived in Ballston, that was a cool spot.
Michael Pope
Also, it's probably worth mentioning that in our episode last week, we talked about this firehouse caucus to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jennifer McClellan. So, Lamont Bagby is crushing it here. 72% of the voters in that firehouse primary were 4,700 voters. So yeah, he still has to get through the general, but I mean, this is a solidly blue seat. So you know, he's headed to the Senate. And then, of course, there's another special election to fill back the seats. So it's really interesting the dominoes here. Also, keep in mind this special election for Bagby being in the Senate seat and whoever fills Bagbys House seat; that's only for the rest of this year. We still need to have another election for whoever is going to fill that seat next year.
Thomas Bowman
Man, that's quite the reshuffling of the deck.
Michael Pope
Yes, yes, it is. Alright, well, Thomas. Hey, let's go ahead and open up that pod. Virginia mailbag. What are our listeners talking about?
Thomas Bowman
All right, well, we heard your discussion with Chaz natty comb and bow all the retirement and the GA this year and said, "enjoyable podcast this week with Chaz, as usual. I did want to point out that Saslaw was paired against Marsden. I think that was overlooked from the conversation".
Michael Pope
That would have been quite a primary SASLAW versus Marcin. Yeah, it's
Thomas Bowman
It's been openly discussed, for the expectation was that says I was not going to run again. So I don't think people are talking about this as he got paired in. It's that Marsden was the continuation of Dick Saslaws natural evolution. Because they remember they didn't get to draw their lines, their district lines like they thought they would be able to when some of these plans first got hatched and said, this is what is leftover. So the intent was always Dick Saslaw to leave.
Michael Pope
What's interesting? If you think about Saslaw versus Marsden, Marsden has a voting history that skews kind of conservative for being a Democrat. You may remember that he voted against paid sick days. In this most recent session, he voted for that bill to prevent people who might have ties with the Chinese government from buying farmland in Virginia. So he does have a challenger, Heidi Drauschak, a consultant who is involved with the campaign finance group known as Big Money Out VA. So, despite the fact that Saslaw was not challenging Marsden, there might still be an interesting race to watch there. But Jordan Miles heard our discussion about the retirements and said great podcast, as usual. So thank you, Supervisor Miles. So after the podcast, after we recorded that podcast with Chaz Nuttyecombe, there was yet another retirement Senator John Bell announced that he is not seeking reelection. He's got some health issues that he's working through.
Thomas Bowman
Sorry to hear that
Michael Pope
I'm very sorry to hear that.
Delegate Suhas Subramanyam said he would be running for that seat. This is a seat by the way that was held for many years by Republican Senator Dick Black. Bell flipped it when he was elected.
Thomas Bowman
So Wendy Gooditis also announced that she would not run it again.
Michael Pope
We are probably going to end up doing another episode on the retirements. And we didn't even mention in that episode Thomas is one of all of the House members who won't be running for reelection because they are running for the Senate. And that is a very long list. LaRock Brewer, Van Valkenburgh, Guzman McGuire, Roem, Hudson Jinkins Williams, Graves, and Durant.
Thomas Bowman
A lot of this will sort out naturally as we get through filing deadlines and whatnot. So be prepared for us to come back and talk about this again, more than once, probably, but definitely in April, when we've got some clarity and we're still far enough ahead from the elections to make an impact. We also got a shout-out from Eckerd Seamans for our episode with Dylan Bishop, one of their employees posting on Twitter, "Richmond base Dylan Bishop is featured on a Pod Virginia episode where he discusses the status of marijuana legislation in the state cannabis-related bills in the Virginia GA and retail marijuana and hemp regulation." So that was such a fascinating discussion. It was a treat to do that in person.
Michael Pope
Yeah, that was fun.
Thomas Bowman
All right, Michael, we've got some birthdays this week. Let's celebrate and have some fun.
Michael Pope
Well, we've got to today to Monday, March 6th th is the birthday of Delegate Patrick Hope of Arlington and Delegate Jackie Glass of Norfolk. And then this weekend, Saturday, March 11th. Also has two birthdays Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears and Delegate Bill Wampler of Washington County. So happy birthday all around.
Thomas Bowman
And that's it for this week's episode of Pod Virginia. Don't forget to check out our website. Follow us on social media for more updates and discussions of Virginia politics.
