Tom Davis: A Republican Perspective on Next Week's Primaries
This week, Michael is joined by Tom Davis, a former Republican Congressman and former Chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, to break down the statewide and local primary races now underway. Who are the Republicans vying to challenge Tim Kaine, and will they have a chance in November? How is the Good vs. McGuire race affected by the switch to a primary system over conventions? Could Virginia be in play for the presidential race in November?
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope, and this is Pod Virginia. A podcast that's getting ready for the primary election next week. We've got a great guest today who's going to help us look forward to what we can expect to happen on Tuesday night. He's a former chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and a former congressman for the 11th Congressional District. He's currently a partner at Holland and Knight, and we are very pleased to welcome him to Pod Virginia Tom Davis. Thanks for joining us.
Tom Davis
Michael, you forgot I was campaign chairman for the House Republicans for two cycles, too.
Michael Pope
Well, you have a lot of titles, and I didn't want to go through all of them.
Tom Davis
I was a professor at Cornell this last semester. So I'm doing I'm doing it all. But you asked if I believe in free speech, and I said yes. So here I
am for free.
Michael Pope
Well, I really appreciate you joining us. I want to start with the Republican nomination to go up against US Senator Tim Kaine. Before we get into the individual candidates, I'm wondering what you think about this election. Do you think the seat is in play? Can any Republican pose a serious challenge to Tim Kaine?
Tom Davis
Well, if you look at the ratings, the answer is that it's ranked safely Democratic. But I'm looking at the polling in the presidential race, which has gotten much closer. Looking at the nature of parliamentary races, this district certainly has a Democratic lean to it. Both times Kaine was elected, they were democratic wave years, 2012 and 2018, when he had the wind at his back. Should things reverse and Trumppick up two or three points? I think the Republican campaign committee would have to take a look over whether they should get involved in this race or not. But I think at this point, it's a long shot, but it's not out of reach. I think it's kind of a secondary or tertiary look by the Senate Republicans because they're in such a target-rich environment this year. There are so many other states with either open seats or weak incumbents.
Michael Pope
We are going to get into all of those elections. But before we get out of the statewide race, I want to go through the candidates, starting with the one who has raised the most amount of mone, $2.5 million. His name will be familiar to listeners because, in the last election cycle, he was the Republican who ran against Jennifer Wexton. She won that election with 53% of the vote. Now, he's hoping for a shot on the statewide ballot to face off against Tim Kaine. Tom Davis, tell us about Hung Cao.
Tom Davis
Hung Cao was born in Vietnam and came over here without speaking any English. He went through the Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology, which you have to test to get into Fairfax. It's very exclusive, and it's a merit-based group. He went from there to Annapolis, spent a career in the Navy, and then came out. He's working as a contractor now with one of our tech firms up here in Northern Virginia. I think he ran a better race for the 10th District last time than anybody expected because the national Republicans really weren't in there to give him much backup. The Democrats spent a lot of money, and he was still this was a single-digit race. So I think he walks into this as the favorite, looking at the recognition he's had and the support he has around the state. And I think he clearly walks into Tuesday as the favorite.
Michael Pope
But before we get into the other candidates in the Republican primary, what do you make of a Hung Cao v. Tim Kaine election? How do you think that shakes out?
Tom Davis
Well, it depends, it's up to Kaine. Kaine is the front-runner in this case. I think they've got to be careful how you handle somebody with Hung's background who is military and came over here as a refugee. But it's really going to depend on the top of that ticket: how well Donald Trump does in Virginia? If Donald Trump carries Virginia, you had two recent public polls that show the race dead even. If Trump carries the state, I think, at that point, the Senate committee can come in, and any kind of financial disadvantage Hung Cao has right now in the campaign finance reports can quickly dissipate, and then you make it a race. I mean, people have gotten to the Senate on a lot less. The real question, I think, in the determinative factor is how well Trump is going to do because we're seeing less ticket splitting than at any other time in history. But the better Trump does, the better Hung Cao does.
Michael Pope
Republicans will have four other names on their ballot: Jonathan Emord
has raised $930,000; Scott Parkinson has raised $930,000; Chuck Smith, another familiar name, has raised $557,000; and Eddie Garcia, has raised the smallest amount of money, $341,000. You said earlier that Hung Cao would likely walk into Tuesday night as the front-runner. But what about these other four candidates?
Tom Davis
Well, we don't know who's going to show up. We don't have many statewide Republicans in Virginia. And you have a spirited Republican primary in the 5th district and the 7th district so that they will pull over their weight. You also have one in the 10th, which probably helps to some extent. It's impossible to poll these things because we don't have a lot of experience with off-year primaries. So, let's go in reverse; let's start with Eddie Garcia. Eddie, I've seen him at more Republican events around the state over the last year and a half than I have all of the others combined. He is at every Republican event. Unfortunately for him, it's not just people who go to Republican festivals who vote in the primary; it's broader than that. The question is, can he translate that? I haven't found anybody that says anything bad about him. Can he translate that into something greater in the polls without the kind of money and heft that you need to get your name out to a wider group? But he certainly enters this, at this point, I think, with no enemies. The question is, you only get one ballot; are they likely to go with him or not? Given the fundraising numbers, I think it looks a little uphill for him. But look, if he doesn't get it, he can lift another day, that said he's made no enemies. And this is a very likable young man; he's served the country as well in the military. Chuck Smith, I mean Chuck, has run so many times now people may think he's an incumbent. He keeps striving for office; he's got a great resume as an African American from Virginia Beach. He's been active in the party. But again, this is a big state. I don't know what semblance of an organization he's had from his other attempts for Attorney General and local elections in Virginia Beach. But given his fundraising numbers and that kind of thing. At this point, it looks, you know, it's also uphill for him.
Michael Pope
Then Scott Parkinson and Jonathan Emord
.
Tom Davis
Well, Parkinson tried to be the conservative in the race. He comes out of the Club for Growth; they didn't put a lot of money into this race for him. If they had dropped $5 million, I think it might have been a different race for him. He's certainly done a respectable job raising money, but he's had to pinch his pennies. Again, this is a statewide primary. He has not been that active in the party, at least, as I have seen prior to this, like Eddie Garcia has, for example. He comes on entering the stage a little bit late. He's got a lot of energy behind him among some elements of the right. But with his fundraising numbers at this point, I think it'll be tough for him, but you don't count him out. There is a strong conservative base that he can tap into, particularly in the 5th district.
Michael Pope
Well, he's raised almost a million dollars, as has Jonathan Emor.d
.
Tom Davis
A million dollars doesn't take you very far in a race like this, and you don't know how they've targeted it. But he clearly seems to be going downstate. You've got to remember that the congressional district went for Haley in the presidential primary. This state's Republican Party is a little bit schizophrenic as well. So I mean, Scott is running an energetic race, as I said before, but those fundraising numbers, the fact that Hung Cao has been on the ballot before, he's been out there and has leading endorsements that make it a little bit more difficult. But I think, if I were to put a guess on if anybody takes him down, who would it be? I'd say Parkins.
Michael Pope
And then what about Jonathan Emord?
Tom Davis
I haven't seen much of Jonathan Emord. I've seen some negative stuff coming out of there attacking some others. Again, he spent a million dollars, a good shot for a first-try effort. But I don't know what his activity and presence among party regulars and the people likely to vote. I just haven't seen the kind of penetration that you would need. I'm on most of the Republican list because I've voted in every Republican primary. I haven't seen much from him. But you haven't seen much for most of these candidates. They're running kind of on a shoestring; if you're lucky to get one mailing from them, it's going to be a low turnout. The energy counts as much as anything else in a primary like this. I just haven't seen him put together the energy that you would need, like a Parkinson may have to move. But I may be wrong, as we don't have a lot of experience with statewide primaries like this.
Michael Pope
Let's turn our attention to a race that's grabbing headlines all across the state and even across the country, not a statewide race. But the 5th Congressional District. This is where we've got incumbent Congressman Bob Good facing a Trump-endorsed challenger, John McGuire. What do you think happens with this primary?
Tom Davis
You're going to have to ask me at about 11 o'clock on election night. They're both running all out. We're dealing with a party that has not had much experience with primaries. We've been a convention state to our detriment over the last couple of decades. So that means Democrats have built up their lists by holding primaries because in a state with no party registration, voting in the Democratic primary is an indication of somebody's leanings. So when it comes to special elections, when it comes to raising money, comes to organizing, Democrats have had a leg up on Republicans because we have said to ourselves, we'd rather be like a private club in terms of who's allowed to participate. The Democrats have said, well, we're the big tent, come on in and participate. They've been able to build that organization; now, the rules are reversed. Everything is a primary; Bob Good won his first two nominations in basically a convention fight; he has never had to go through a primary before, so it's a new experience for him, instead of just playing to a very conservative crowd that's organized and will climb over broken glass to get to the polls on Election Day. He's dealing with a broader electorate. Let's also talk about the elephant in the room, the fact that Donald Trump has come out against him, and Donald Trump is, too many, the face of the Republican Party in this state. So that creates an additional problem for Bob. Third, there is no Democratic primary in that district. So Democrats can crossover, and they probably have nothing in common with McGuire, who was very conservative; Bob Good has been the face of conservatism in this state, the face of the Freedom Caucus, and which they don't like, and we just have to see what that crossover is. Traditionally, the crossover hasn't been great. We find that most Democrats just don't cross over into Republicans's primaries, and Republicans don't cross over into Democrats. But even a few could make a difference in this case. So we'll just have to wait and see. I think we'll know better on election night. There have been conflicting polls on this race, as well. Nobody knows who to poll; it's impossible to tell who's going to show up in a race like this. A lot of activity on the ground, a lot of money spent. This is a race the country is watching. It shouldn't be a good loss. I think it will have some repercussions across the Republican Conference because Bob has been a conservative stalwart. As I said, he is the elected leader of the Freedom Caucus in the House, and that would be a devastating blow, I think, to them, should he lose. However, as I said, his opponent is almost equally conservative, from what I've seen.
Michael Pope
It would be big national news if the head of the Freedom Caucus lost a Republican primary. I think people all over the country would be talking about that. You mentioned the Trump endorsement for McGuire. That's obviously what's driving the politics of this election. But I think it's interesting that there's a MAGA family feud with Matt Gates that endorses Bob Good. But then Marjorie Taylor Greene endorsed John McGuire. What do you make of this kind of Family Feud amongst Republicans in this congressional district primary?
Tom Davis
Well, not every candidate Trump endorses wins; that's the first thing you want to say. Bob has his own personal brand out there and a network of people in the district, whom I said are going to crawl over broken glass to get there to the polls for him. I don't care what Donald Trump says. They know Bob Good; he's been the representative. So that's what makes this race so interesting. I think you need to watch the turnout. This is higher or lower and what it all means. I think the higher the turnout, the better it is for a challenger in a race like this because Bob's got a set of people across this district who are very loyal to him and are very comfortable with his record. But we really don't know because we don't have a lot of experience in that part of the state with primaries. Both of these guys are very heavily funded. And that Trump endorsement is a shorthand for a lot of people who don't follow this thing every day saying he's the guy, notwithstanding the fact that Bob Good's record has been very Trumpian. However, Trump decided to go in a different direction.
Michael Pope
Turning our attention to the 10th congressional district centered in Loudoun County. This is a crazy free-for-all where we've got 12 Democrats on the ballot. Outgoing incumbent Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton is endorsing Suhas Subramanyam; the Washington Post is endorsing Dan Helmer, And former governor Ralph Northam is endorsing Eileen Filler-Corn. What do you think is going to happen in this primary?
Tom Davis
I'm not great at predicting Democratic primaries. The Post endorsement isn't what it used to be. We did the surveys, and now, it shows that about 18% of the metro area gets their news from the Washington Post, predominantly Democrat. So it's good to have a little more sway in a democratic primary than a normal Suhas Subramanyam he has with him, with Indians in the district having a significant part of it. But you also have you have a Muslim running. There are Mosques in the district and a pretty strong Muslim population in the district. You've got African Americans, you've got Hispanics, the front runner; I think Dan is probably the guy to beat and the guy that would hold the seat in November; he'd be the strongest Democrat. But he and Eileen Filler-Corn have had a running feud because he helped bring her down as Speaker of the House. She's spending a lot of money well. She's a woman in the race, not the only one. But it's difficult to unpack what's going to happen on election night in a Democratic primary. There's no countervailing Senate Democratic primary to bring people out. But you look at the three endorsed candidates that have significant endorsements. And I think those are probably the front runners. Helmer, I think I would give him an edge just because his political skills are excellent. He's run for this seat once before; he's good. He's raised the most money.
Michael Pope
The Republicans also have a primary in the 10th congressional district, and the candidate there, the Republican who's raised the most money is Mike Clancy, who's raised $380,000. That primary also features Alex Isaac and Alicia Andrews. What do you see happening with the Republicans in the 10th?
Tom Davis
Well, Clancy ran once before when it was a conventional type of operation, and I gave him the edge because of the money that he's raised. He was out early on this, has put together a string of endorsements, and is, I think, probably the strongest candidate in the general election. He's worked for Oracle and other tech firms. Just a little bit of history. At one point, he lived in Arlington and ran for the Arlington County Board, which is not very hospitable country for a Republican. But his political skills are knowledge; I think he can appeal to a strong, independent base in general and, if it's a decent year, make a race out of it. So I put him at the front on this. Again, it's a primary issue, and we don't have a lot of experience with these things. Even the last time when Hung Cao won the nomination, it wasn't a primary; it was kind of a firehouse primary, not a general primary. So we're going to learn a lot this time as we go to full-blown open primaries for the nomination process. About what the prospective electorate looks like. What is its makeup? What's its ideological bent? We just don't have a lot of experience with this.
Michael Pope
Moving over to the lucky 7th congressional district, centered in Prince William County, this is another open seat because Abigail Spanberger is not running for reelection. Unlike the 10th, this democratic primary does seem to have a clear front runner, somebody who has raised more than $5 million. Eugene Vindman, but he's got six other Democrats running against him in that primary. Tom Davis, how do you think this one shakes out?
Tom Davis
I think Vindman is likely to emerge in a five-way race. The others are carving up the different constituencies outside of that white moderate mainstream constituency. I think they carve it up, and Vindman wins. Because I don't think he gets 50%. But I think that the money advantage has been huge, and endorsements have been impressive. I think you might have been able to take him with a one-on-one. But I think there are just too many candidates in the race, splitting it up at this point. I think the money is going to end up buying that nomination. I don't know if it buys the general; I'm not sure at all that it does. And I'm not sure if Vindman's strong enough to be a general election candidate. However, since he was tangentially related to the Trump impeachment, it gives him some credentials with Democrats in a district where otherwise he probably doesn't have really much connection.
Michael Pope
To go through the other candidates, the other Democrats are running against Vindman. We've got Andrea Bailey, who has raised $340,000.
Tom Davis
She's an impressive young lady, County supervisor of Prince William. But given these financial numbers at this point, she can't put a claim on the African American vote, which is significant, particularly in Prince William and Stafford because that's what was up this time.
Michael Pope
Elizabeth Guzman has raised $286,000.
Tom Davis
She's run before and has a strong sway in the Prince William part of the district. She's Hispanic, but she's splitting that with other people.
Michael Pope
Margaret Franklin has raised $284,000.
Tom Davis
He's also an impressive candidate, except I think they're all, at this point, over their heads in a congressional race. They haven't raised the kind of money, and they're all fighting for the same voters in that section. Vindman has got a portion of that Democratic primary to himself.
Michael Pope
Briana Sewell has raised a quarter million dollars, and she might, I mean, doubtfully prevail in this election. But, like Eddie Garcia, Briana Sewell might be setting herself up as someone to watch in the future.
Tom Davis
Well, I think they all have potential futures. They've all been active in this kind of thing. They're fighting over that same section of the Democratic primary voters, and that has given Vindman a clear path to your more traditional Democratic, non-ethnic Democrats in the district. He's got such a huge financial advantage and organizational advantage at this point that you have to give him an advantage. Again, if this were a two or three-way race, it might be different. But you have four Democrats basically fighting over that same segment of the party, and it's left Vindman basically clear to go after everybody else.
Michael Pope
So, the Republicans also have a primary in the 7th congressional district, which has basically come down to a two-way race between Derrick Anderson and Cameron Hamilton. Anderson has raised more than a million, and Hamilton has raised about $722,000. How do you see that race shaking out?
Tom Davis
Well, we'll find out. I think Derrick Anderson is clearly the favorite of the national Republicans at this point, which is why he's raised more money. They both have strong military backgrounds. Anderson has run before, so he's been through this once before. Hamilton has kind of jumped into this thing and is learning as he goes. So, I'd give the edge today to Anderson. By the way, I think it'll be a close general election on the 7th. I think Trump could very well carry the 7th district this time. It was relatively close last time. So, this will be a swing district and a nationally watched district in the Fall. I give the edge to Anderson at this point. But Hamilton, for somebody who's come out of the box for the first time, has been impressive. Used the Navy SEAL to raise money across the country. All 20, I talked to one of the Navy SEALS in Congress, who told me he's supporting Anderson. Just because Anderson's been around before and, I think, has taken the first lap around the track and picked up a lot of early endorsements.
Michael Pope
Assuming Anderson wins. What do you think a Vindman v. Anderson campaign looks like in the 7th congressional district?
Tom Davis
Well, it'll be based on the presidential and Senate races. I don't think you're going to see a lot of separation in these races; you'll see a lot of straight-ticket voting, and this will be a targeted District of Virginia if the Republicans decide to target Virginia and go after it. I think the 7th district will benefit from that. The Republicans have left a lot of votes on the table in the 7th district in the past. I'm talking about white, non-college voters who, traditionally, have stayed home or have not been engaged. Democrats have their minority voters, but they have gotten very good at identifying and getting them out. But those voters are likely to turn out anyway. The ones that want to, they've turned that into almost a machine, and Republicans have not with their occasional voters. Should Republicans target this state? I think it would change the dynamic of the 7th district, and it could very well be put in the Republican column in November. But it's a close race; this could go either way down the wire. I think the way the presidential race goes is the way that the congressional race goes.
Michael Pope
So we talked about all of the races.s, I wanted to talk about the candidates. Let's zoom out a little bit and give us a window into what you will be looking for on election night.
Tom Davis
I'll be looking early on just to see how this ferrets out. Again, for Republicans, primaries are a new thing. What's that turnout number going to be? Are we engaging voters who haven't participated in the past? Does Trump's endorsement carry the weight that it has in some states, or has Bob Good been able to carve himself up such an identity with Republican voters that it doesn't make any difference? Are Republicans voting strategically, or are they just voting ideologically? I think we'll see all of these on election night. As I said, if you wish you had more data points for Republican primaries to give you an idea of where the electorate is likely to settle in, but we just don't know that. On top of that, particularly in your Northern Virginia counties, you've got just a ton of new voters in Northern Virginia. I mean, the major components of politics are the movers and the undertakers. People are either dying or leaving, and people are moving in here. The population is changing rapidly. And who are these new voters? What do they bring with them? Over the past decade, it's been more Democrats, but I'm not sure post-pandemic how all this sorts out. I think I'll be eager to see this. We saw in the presidential primary, by the way, for the first time, that Republican voters exceeded Democratic voters in the presidential primary in a state with no party registration. S,o let's see where it is. The polling indicates that maybe Virginia has gotten a little closer than people gave her credit for after Obama took it for the first time in 2008, and then, in 2012, 2016, and 2020, you've had four straight elections where Democrats have carried it. Maybe the population is changing a little bit, and the issue matrix is now moving more favorably toward Republicans. Nationally, we see Republicans attracting more ethnic voters, which cuts into that Democratic base, particularly in Northern Virginia.
Michael Pope
You mentioned earlier your experience as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. I'm curious about this crop of candidates. When the National Republican Congressional Committee looks at these candidates to emerge Tuesday night, is this a good crop of candidates to go up against the Democrats in Virginia?
Tom Davis
Well, I think there wasn't a lot of recruiting here. I think these candidates kind of put themselves forward as opposed to the committee going out and finding them the way they did in other states. But I think part of that is they were comfortable with what they saw coming. In the 7th, you'll definitely see both national parties in, with both feet planted firmly and duking it out in the 7th. Democrats, I think, will make a feign at the 2nd district; they'll come in and decide to what extent they feel this is a seat that they can flip. I don't think they'll do anything in the 5th district. I think the Republican primary winner with Trump on the ballot will seal that down. That moves us to the 10th district, and we'll see early polling on where that race goes and who the nominee is. Republicans, I think, will take a look at that. They'll come in and poll that, probably in mid to late August, and decide if this is worth getting into. The first thing I always ask when I look at a poll is not the head-to-head, but what's the generic congressional ballot? That tells you a lot if you're if you're losing the ballot test, but you're up to the generic, and you want to get into that race. You want to reinforce the issues that make your party that generic favorite. And we don't know what that ballot looks like at this point. We do know this from last time, in these legislative elections for State House and State Senate, almost every district Biden carried with less than nine points and Republicans swept. So that creates opportunities in some of these districts for Republicans to win where they haven't won in the past, certainly in the 7th and possibly the 10th.
Michael Pope
I'll ask you one last question. I really appreciate you coming to Pod Virginia and sharing your thoughts on all this. It's something you've teased several times, which is Trump vs. Biden in Virginia. Trump has lost Virginia twice. But the polling right now is tied in Virginia; people don't really think about Virginia as being a battleground state. But it could be. What do you think the race between Trump and Biden looks like in Virginia?
Tom Davis
Well, two things. I don't know what third-party ballots could look like right now. I don't know if Kennedy is on the ballot yet, or are some of these other candidates at this point? Is there a third place to deposit them? If they're Cornell West or Jill Stein, those votes come right out of Biden. But suppose Kennedy is on the ballot, and I'm a congressional candidate. In that case, I'm going to try to orient myself to his voters as well as my own because the Trump votes are probably not going to get you over 50%. So, I'd have to wait and see who qualifies at the end of the day. As we sit here now, I'm not sure where that where that lies. We've had to publish polls that show the race eve, though I've seen private polls from both parties that show the race is much closer than it traditionally has been. You go back to the polls of Trump four years ago. He was down 12 points at this time. It's within the margin of error. This race is clearly in play. The question is what, why is it in play? I think there are several factors. Number one is that Democrats used to waste their votes in Arlington and Alexandria, and these legislative races were in urban areas. They run up the ballots, the vote in legislative elections, and win by overwhelming margins. Republicans would win by lesser margins in other races. We've seen now Republicans basically running up the score in their rural area; there aren't as many rural areas, although as people move out,t these areas gain population. But we're seeing Republicans really overperforming now in rural Virginia, and that's one thing that has really brought them up. The second issue, as I said before, is we've seen the erosion of the ethnic vote in Northern Virginia, as Republicans have learned to go after that and capture some of that many of these voters that are not liberal. They're Democrats, at least they've been voting Democrat, but they are culturally conservative. They identify more with some of the Republicans on some of these issues. Joe Biden's performance, both at the border and with inflation, where it is here, you're in a deficit situation today where we're spending more on interest on the national debt than the national defense. People are not giving him high marks. Biden is not an alpha male. I mean, he gives a fireside cha,t and the fire goes out. He's not really instilling enthusiasm in that Democratic base. I think you put all that together, and it puts a state like Virginia, at least at this point. If not in play, it's a district I think everybody is looking at. We'll see over the next two to three months where Republicans put their money. As I look at this nationally today, and if I'm running the Biden campaign, from what I understand, my path to victory, if I'm Joe Biden, is I've got to carry Michigan; I've got to carry Wisconsin; I've got to carry Pennsylvania; and I've got to carry Nebraska to that get me to 270. That is the most likely path for us if you're a Democrat,t to get there. If Republican's stopped them at any of those three, that means they've carried Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, those states likely to go Republican at this point. So, Democrats have a much narrower path to victory at this point. You're going to see a huge effort into those states and secondary for Republicans; instead of just focusing on that,t you want to put focus on states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, states that have been considered safely Democrat but with the,se the shift in these electoral coalition's putting them in play, and also Biden's weaknesses as a candidate.
Michael Pope
All right, you have been listening to the former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He was also a member of Congress and chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. He's now with Holland and Knight, more titles than we could ever read on the podcast. Tom Davis. Thanks for joining us.
Tom Davis
Mike, thanks a lot.
