TREVOR SOUTHERLAND & JEFF RYER: PREVIEWING THE SPECIAL SESSION ON COVID
Michael Pope 0:56
Welcome to transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the transition of power in Virginia from Republican to Democrat. My name is Michael Pope and I'm joined via Skype with the co host of Transition Virginia who's smoking a cigarette right now, Thomas Bowman. Thomas, how you doing?
Thomas Bowman 1:13
I am not smoking a cigarette for one. You do not want to be smoking in the days of COVID. But two, that is actually one of our guests today. Please welcome back. Mr. Jeff Ryer, the press secretary of the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus, and we are not going to add an applause here.
Jeff Ryer 1:34
Am I the only Republican you all know? I'm just curious, because I I think I might be the only the second one on the show. Who were the other Republicans you've had on since I was last on because I was on, as you all know, the inaugural episode of this particular podcast. So the seven or eight regular people who download it, I'm the reason why. But anyway, go ahead.
Thomas Bowman 1:54
Glenn Davis, Matt-
Jeff Ryer 1:56
Wait. Oh my god. Oh my god. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Wait a bit. Why don't you get in John Warner and Bill Bolling? Did you have Bill Bolling on?
Michael Pope 2:06
Our podcast is only like a minute into it and we've already fallen off the rails. Can I can I pull this back? And I'd like to welcome our guests, the Press Secretary of the Senate Republican Caucus, Jeff Ryer, and we're also joined by the former Executive Director of the House Democratic Caucus, Trevor Southerland. Trevor, how you doing?
Trevor Southerland 2:26
I'm good. Doing marvelous. Thanks for having me on. I'm just so happy to be here with Jeff, your old friend.
Michael Pope 2:35
He was on the one of the first podcasts that actually was not the inaugural podcast
Jeff Ryer 2:42
What?
Michael Pope 2:44
It was our second podcast. In any event, he was on very early and we were so glad to have him on. We have talked to a number of Republicans since that time, and in fact, Jeff, you can hit the subscribe button to find out more more. I'd like to open the discussion by throwing out a question. I have heard it described that the Senate Republican Caucus and the House Democratic Caucus are the two most dysfunctional caucuses in America. Is that true?
Trevor Southerland 3:12
As for the House Democratic Caucus, and its dysfunctionalism, or lack thereof, you know, I was with the House Democratic Caucus, I joined in 2014, and we were at 32 members, and when I left earlier this year, we were 55. So I would describe that as a fairly functional caucus.
Michael Pope 3:29
Okay, well, so much for that theory. All right. Well, then let's talk about the special session. So lawmakers are about to return to Richmond to put together a new budget with a revenue reforecast as a result of all the money Virginia is not getting because the pandemic and also examine a whole raft of criminal justice reform efforts. Trevor, I'm gonna go to you first because you're currently not part of the caucus. What do you expect to come out of this special session?
Trevor Southerland 3:57
Well, I mean, it's a good question. I think, you know, recently we've seen that the budget might be in a little better shape than we had initially thought when we went into COVID. So I think that's good that, you know, the budget hit isn't going to be as severe as it could have been. So I'm interested to see, you know, sort of what that ends up looking like. I do you think you're going to see some reforms that are needed. You know, the House Committee started looking at what we can do in the area of police reform and sort of how we're monitoring those activities in Virginia. I think the Legislative Black Caucus put out a very ambitious program that they're looking to enact, and so I think they sort of laid down a good guidepost with what they put out to say, "hey, this is what we feel like would be acceptable". It'll be interesting to see how much of that happens in the Special or how much of it waits until next year, maybe when the General Session comes on. The special session sort of initially was more about the budget and finishing in COVID. And then we've had everything happened recently that requires it to look a little further.
Michael Pope 5:02
Jeff, I want to tap your institutional knowledge here and ask, has there ever been a time when the General Assembly needs to rush back to Richmond to write a new budget because the old budget you have to throw in the garbage can?
Jeff Ryer 5:15
No, not to this extent. Usually, they're able to hold over until the till the budget amendments, because the governor is allowed leeway as far as changes that he can make unilaterally to the budget in the meantime, if there's a shortfall to prevent the General Assembly from having to come back. And were we just dealing with the budget, I think the Special Session probably would have been manageable. But I think from a logistical standpoint, if you look back at Special Sessions, you're just not going to see one like this where there's a potential for multiple bills, all of which require constitutional readings, committee hearings, public hearings at those committee hearings, and just a variety of hurdles to hold it. So Trevor may be somewhat prescient in his comments of how many things end up being held over because generally, Special Sessions are set up because consensus has already been reached, or clear majorities on issues have already been reached and you're coming in just to kind of put a bow on everything. This has been called in a manner that's much more wide open and wide ranging and I don't really know how practical that is for a part time legislature.
Michael Pope 6:27
Well, let me follow up on that. So there's it's wide open, it's wide ranging. Can you ever remember a time when there was a Special Session that that wasn't just to put a bow on something that's already been pre determined that was this wide open and this anything could happen?
Jeff Ryer 6:43
No.
Michael Pope 6:44
Trevor? Is that a problem for Democrats that they brought people back to Richmond in a way where you don't really know what's going to happen and you haven't really nailed everything down?
Trevor Southerland 6:53
I don't think so. I mean, I think there's still the procedural resolution to go through and there's still you know, time to look at what all will be discussed and will happen in the Special Session. But I think it's it's an area where action needs to be taken and some of it needs to be sooner rather than later. And, you know, with Virginia being a part time legislature where we're seeing some of the faults in that system, it's something that has very good qualities to it, but also has some very big downsides. So, that's something we have to look at eventually, too.
Thomas Bowman 7:28
I have a question for Jeff. Jeff, do you think that this is going to be something where we can expect to see some bipartisan majorities and Republican crossover votes? Or do you think that this is going to be another opportunity for partisan splits and divides and maybe we don't even get anything out of this Special Session?
Jeff Ryer 7:49
Well, the Democrats have majorities in both chambers. So presumably, if they want to get things passed, and they have unanimity among their parties, they'll be able to get things passed, but It'll depend on the individual pieces of legislation as to whether or not they command bipartisan support or not. You've already seen some of the division lines, certainly the move to lower from felony to misdemeanor assaulting a police officer garnered quite a bit of disagreement from our side. But I don't know that there's that level of consensus and you can't, you can't separate what's what's going on inside there from what's going on outside the Capitol, which is, you know, we're going to be holding this Special Session within 10 weeks of a presidential election, which is when I think America is at its most partisan. So the the opportunities for for division are probably pretty hot.
Michael Pope 8:50
Jeff, I want to ask you a question about some of the last minute drama that happened during the General Assembly session when Senator Favola had a bill that delegate, Elizabeth Guzman also had on the House side about requiring employers to have paid sick days. And this is an effort that had quite a lot of support during the session. It passed through the pass through the house. It passed the Senate and then at the very last minute it died in the senate because senators were looking at the economy, the national economy going off a cliff, and they were worried about the state having to pay a lot of money to have state employees have paid sick days. And you saw a lot of Democrats actually help torpedoing that. Now with a Special Session, there has been all kinds of talk about figuring out some way to address the cost and bringing it back. What do you think is gonna happen with that effort to mandate paid sick days in Virginia?
Jeff Ryer 9:43
I think all that is almost entirely dependent upon the Democrat majority because I don't see that effort garnering any support among the Republicans, at least in the Senate.
Michael Pope 9:54
Well, what one thing the Democrats want to do is, limit it to people who work 20 hours or more, so if you were part time it wouldn't apply to you. So you if you worked 20 hours or more, this would include state employees, by the way, then you have a mandate for paid sick days.
Jeff Ryer 10:10
Well, and if it includes state employees, then guess what? You end up affecting the budget again, at this point, I just don't see any appetite on our side to further burden Virginia businesses. I don't see it at all. I have not heard any members suggesting, "Oh, we need to put a new regulatory burden on businesses as they're struggling with COVID." I don't think so. That just doesn't sound very attractive. And and I think it sounds, frankly, is counterproductive if we want to get people back to work.
Thomas Bowman 10:39
So, my strategy firm put out a memo a report the other day that explained why Coronavirus vaccine won't be available widely at the earliest until 2022. So what do you mean, there won't be a single Republican senator that will support paid sick leave for vulnerable workers that are going to be getting sick again and again because we are seeing that there's not that much antibody resistance that stays once you get sick from Coronavirus, which means you can actually get reinfected. So what do you mean that we're not going to have any Republicans in Virginia supporting paid sick leave?
Jeff Ryer 11:17
Thomas, I think what you have to realize is is that we look at these things as unfunded mandates on business, which raises the cost of doing business. So as a result, mandating these things, is not necessarily productive if you're concerned about the workforce.
Thomas Bowman 11:33
If all we've seen out of COVID-
Jeff Ryer 11:35
If your study group- Thomas did your study group also explain what the cost of that to businesses would be? What the cost of that the state government would be? Where do you think this money comes from?
Thomas Bowman 11:45
Oh my gosh, so the cost to business is less than the cost to humanity. What do you want to do-
Jeff Ryer 11:53
Oh my god, honest to god, which Democratic presidential candidate backed- was Bernie too far to the right for you?
Thomas Bowman 12:01
Sixty-I was actually, am very proud to have, I've already talked about on the podcast. I'm a Warren voter, anyway. Anyway-
Jeff Ryer 12:11
Everybody's favorite scold. That's what we really why didn't you all nominate her? Because I gotta tell you there is nothing America wants more than a schoolmarm from New England, Jesus anyway. Here's the bottom line. Okay. You got 21 Democrats in the Senate, you got 55 in the House, if you want that policy to go sell down. Okay. We are very concerned about the economy being able to revive itself about forcing more unfunded mandates on business and expecting them to put people back to work. There are no free lunches, which is something that Elizabeth Warren has never seemed to grasp. But then why would she earning close to $400,000 annually at Harvard living a lovely complex in Cambridge, which I assure you is thoroughly integrated. I mean, come on. Get a clue.
Michael Pope 12:57
I'd like to move the discussion on to criminal justice reform. So the Senate Democratic Caucus had a press release where they had several different items that they're interested in pursuing during the Special Session, prohibiting no knock warrants, banning chokeholds, requiring de escalation attempts, requiring warnings before shots are fired, defelonizing assault on law enforcement officers. Trevor, what did you make of the Senate Democrats releasing this list? The House Democrats decided not to do that the House Democrats strategy is to have a bunch of public hearings and, allegedly, get public input before they come up with their list. What do you what do you make the difference in strategy here between the Senate Democrats and the House Democrats?
Trevor Southerland 13:44
I mean, it's it's just a different strategy between whether you want to lay down a marker and go from there or whether you want to gather information and gather input. You know, I think everybody knows that House Democrats probably have an idea of some of the things they want to do and it's probably very similar to what we've seen from the Senate Democrats and from the Legislative Black Caucus. Every day we've seen people like Jeff Bourne, Laschrese Aird, Marcia Price, Don Scott speaking out about things that need to happen. And you've seen the Speaker and the Majority Leader and others come on and say that this is what we plan to do, that we plan to make progress in this Special Session. It's it's just a different strategy on whether you want to lay down the marker first or a little later, so that's that's all that is. I do think a lot of the things the Senate Democrats mentioned are, are good to go. And, you know, when you talk about like the felony assault on a police officer, if you go up and punch a cop, that's still felony assault, there's a lot of things that need to be looked at with some of these laws. And some of it comes down to not just issues that we've seen in the press recently, but also issues between people with developmental delays or communication problems that you know, may not be properly treated by a police officer who thinks they're being hostile, who really just has an issue that the police officer doesn't know how to deal with. So there's a lot on the table.
Michael Pope 15:03
Jeff, what did you make of that list that the Senate Democrats released?
Jeff Ryer 15:06
Well, it was certainly ambitious for a Special Session. It is a lot of legislation, all of which requires public hearings, all of which requires committee hearings, all of which requires three readings. And that's on each side, by the way. You've got to have committee hearings on both sides, bills have to flip. You've got to have constitutional readings on both sides, bills have to flip. So it was certainly, I think, more than anything, I was struck by the volume of it and the expectations of what could be done in a Special Session as opposed to a Regular Session. And it'll be interesting to see whether the Democrats decide to pick and choose or whether they decide to go for all of it.
Michael Pope 15:42
You mentioned the three readings. I was speaking to a senator earlier this week, who was wondering if the Republicans were going to stand in the way of suspending the rules. Talk a little bit about what kind of time restrictions the rules put on things. And do you see that there might be any shortcuts of that during the Special Session, or are Republicans going to sort of stand firm for the three readings and all the time that's associated with all that?
Jeff Ryer 16:08
Well, I think it depends on the complexity of the legislation and the individual circumstances. But remember, you know, generally, again, how our Special Sessions usually conducted? They're usually conducted because people are coming to town to put a bow on an agreement of some kind, or something that everybody knows has to be done on which there is consensus and overwhelming majorities. Under those circumstances, it's very easy to go in and waive readings and go out. Certainly, if there had been some kind of budget agreement prior to the session, I think that probably would have been envisioned, because having worked with caucuses now for 20 years, I can tell you what the first question you get when you go into a caucus meeting, at the beginning of a Special Session is and I bet Trevor can tell you what the first question is, as well. It's when do we go home? And you have to remember that they are part time legislators they have full time jobs, and as a result, it becomes somewhat problematic when you've got legislation of this level of complexity, I don't know that there will be a receptiveness to rushing it, because generally speaking, rush legislation is legislation that you have to come back later and fix.
Thomas Bowman 17:13
Thank you, Jeff. Thank you, Trevor. We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk about the future of the Republican Party.
Michael Pope 18:43
Welcome back to Transition Virginia. We're joined today by Jeff Ryer, the Press Secretary for the Senate Republican Caucus and Trevor Southerland, the former Executive Director for the House Democratic Caucus. We want to get into the future of the Republican Party. Now the Republican Party is had better times in the past. They currently don't have any statewide offices. They lost the House. They lost the Senate. So there's nowhere to go but up, right? Fortunately, we're joined by one of the leading lights of the Republican Party, who seems to be joining us from what appears to be a shrine to Barry Goldwater. On my screen, he's appearing to the right of Barry Goldwater. Jeff, what is the future of the Republican Party?
Jeff Ryer 19:25
Well, first of all, if you don't recognize the other photo, the other portrait is
Michael Pope 19:29
Is that Chester A. Arthur?
Jeff Ryer 19:30
That is President Arthur. That is correct. President Arthur is-
Michael Pope 19:35
President Arthur had the largest collection of pants. Did you know that the largest collection of slacks in America? So Chester A. Arthur, not quite a leading light of the Republican Party. Please explain why you seem to have a shrine to Barry Goldwater and Chester Arthur behind you.
Jeff Ryer 19:53
You don't know enough about Chester Arthur, clearly. I urge you to read the "Unexpected President" came out just last year. He is a wonderful president and to some extent the patron saint for political operatives everywhere, because Chester Arthur shows just what political operatives can do when they are given the opportunity to lead.
Michael Pope 20:13
I doubt he's the most obscure. I think there are more obscure presidents. I would point to Franklin Pierce as perhaps being more obscure?
Jeff Ryer 20:22
No, actually, there's a there's a professor who studies this and has been doing it now for forty years. And what the guy does is he takes a survey every year, and people are asked to name as many presidents as they can. And then they're also given after that a list of different names and they're asked to identify who is the president. The one who has the lowest level of recognition out of presidents is Chester Arthur. Number two is Millard Fillmore. So, Chester but we're in the middle of an Arthur Renaissance, I believe. His ratings are you know, climbing. I feel very good about Chet.
Michael Pope 21:02
Well, now Arthur was a Republican. Franklin Pierce was a Democrat. Millard Fillmore was a Whig. So there you go. You're covering all your parties there with the three most obscure presidents. So, Jeff, am I am I to understand the future of the Republican Party as some sort of weird mashup between Barry Goldwater and Chester Arthur?
Jeff Ryer 21:23
No, no, I actually, I actually have a collection of presidential posters, campaign posters. I have a lot of from the glory years when they used to spend money on that sort of thing. And they're there all over the house. Most, by the way, the ones that I have the most of because they had the most money to spend, are 72. The Nixon ones in 72 are just incredible. Actually, the McGovern ones from that year excellent, too, but obviously I don't have those up. Okay.
Michael Pope 21:51
The future. The future of the Republican Party?
Jeff Ryer 21:55
The future? Well, I think is- no not stalling. I think our future is very promising. Look, Virginia is not and is not going to be a one party state and anybody who believes that it has permanently, you know, moved into progressive thought need only wait. And that's really been the story of Virginia since the Second World War is that it will go for Republicans under the right circumstances, it will go for Democrats under the right circumstances. Nobody has a permanent majority, and I believe we'll be very competitive in in the coming years. I think it's more challenging for either party when their party occupies the White House. And I think that's just a reality of the circumstance. Part of it is us being as close as we are to Washington. But part of it too is there's a certain amount of hunger that develops, especially in swing states, when your party is out of the White House, and it gives a built in advantage to the supporters of the party who is out of the White House.
Michael Pope 22:55
Trevor, let me throw something Jeff just said at you, which is what happens in the hypothetical situation where Trump loses reelection and we have President Biden? Traditionally speaking, what happens in Virginia is there's a backlash, right? And the next election, if you think about 2009, there was the reaction to Obama. And if you go back, historically speaking, there has been this sort of reaction where the the party that comes to power, has a backlash against it. Are the Democrats on the verge of potentially having a backlash against Democrats in 2021?
Trevor Southerland 23:31
I think you might see a little in some areas, but I don't think it's gonna be as severe as it's been in the past. I think, you know, with the McAuliffe win and 13, I think what you've really seen since then, is the Republican operation in Virginia has sort of fallen apart, and I don't see it getting itself back together that quickly. Even if you look right now with the possibilities of who's going to run statewide on the Democratic side, we have several, you know, potentially wonderful nominees for almost every office. And on the Republican side, you're not seeing that as much you're seeing a limited field of what I see as subpar nominees. So I think there's a chance for some backlash, but I also just think that the last few losses that the Republican party has faced has put it in a hole, that even that federal backlash may not be able to save quite yet. Maybe at some point, but I don't think it's going to happen in 21.
Jeff Ryer 24:34
Yeah, I obviously would disagree with that strenuously. I think that if the Democrats do take the White House, by the particularly if they take the White House and the Senate, by the time we get to November of 2021, I think the Democrats will be hurting.
Trevor Southerland 24:49
We'll see. We'll see. I don't know. I think, you know, Amanda Chase's independent candidacy might, might hurt some too.
Jeff Ryer 24:56
There are other people who are looking at it just because we haven't declared as of yet, and believe me, a lot of people are holding back waiting to see the outcome of the presidential race. That's somewhat typical as well. If you don't hold any statewide offices, the natural gravitation toward it, you know, where you say, "Oh, well, the Lieutenant Governor's running. Oh, the Attorney General's running." You know, we don't we don't have that, of course.
Thomas Bowman 25:15
Is there anybody that you would speculate on at this point on who might run?
Jeff Ryer 25:20
Well, we know of the three names that are out there now, you certainly have centered Chase. You have former senator Kericho and Pete Snyder is mentioned with great frequency. I don't know that he has gotten to the stage yet where he's at the exploratory stage. I think if Biden were to win, you'd probably see others jumping in. I think if Biden were to win, you'd have to assume that at that point, the Democrats would hold the House of Representatives, so Congressman Whitman might give it another look. He certainly was interested in the past. So I don't think there'll be a shortage of potential contenders. And I do think the Democrats have given us a lot of openings just by the legislation that they've passed through so far, Thomas's love of it notwithstanding.
Thomas Bowman 26:04
Hasn't passed yet.
Jeff Ryer 26:06
You have others, though, that you're already thrilled with. So you know.
Michael Pope 26:11
So in the last couple of election cycles, Democrats have picked up so many Republican seats. I'm wondering, do you think, Jeff, do you think it's possible the Republicans could recapture any of those seats that they lost?
Jeff Ryer 26:25
Yes.
Michael Pope 26:25
So which one? Which ones do you think are most likely pickups that that Republicans could gain back seats that they lost recently?
Jeff Ryer 26:32
The 28th district and House the Stali seat in the House comes to mind instantly. But remember too, we don't know for certain as of yet that we're going to have the same districts. I mean, you have to think that that's a distinct possibility because of the delay in the census that we would have to be running in 21 in the same districts that they were running it in 19, simply because without census numbers, you can't redistrict and I don't know how late Virginia is going to be provided with the census numbers next year. Those are the two that come immediately to mind. I'd have to remember I was on the Senate side. So we're looking at an entirely different group of seats and we have three more years to wait, so by the time our seats are up, they will be redistributed. I would think the house would make another play at Hurst's seat, not just because of his own personal difficulties, but because anything that's west of 29 continues to trend in the same direction. I'm sure there's other seats I'm missing and I feel badly but I'm not as up on the House seats as I am the Senate seats. So hopefully my House colleagues will forgive me for not remembering their their top target, which I'm sure they're ours. Oh, I know that the Richmond area seats. They they were two that they played for very heavily, heavily last time. Three of which they used to hold. Those those would definitely be things that they'd be looking at it that would be in play. I think they held all their Chesterfield seats. So, you know.
Thomas Bowman 27:55
Trevor, we've got you here, which House seats do you think the Republicans are most likely to target.
Trevor Southerland 28:01
I mean, I think Jeff mentioned some that they're likely to target. They're likely to, you know, try to go after Nancy Guy, they might try to go after Chris Hurst or Wendy Gooditis or, you know, again, they went after Van Valkenburg and tried to win the seat currently heard by held by Willett, which was Deborah Rodman seat. So I think you might see them try to go after those again, but I also think you're gonna see them on the defensive end districts.
Jeff Ryer 28:27
The Guzman's open as well. I forgot about the Guzman open.
Trevor Southerland 28:31
Yep. You know, and there's other people that might run for office. You know, Holly Gala has announced for Lieutenant Governor. So there's there's situations where there's going to be some open seats. But I also think there might be some some open seats that are currently held by Republicans. There are some Republicans that have spent the last couple years barely holding on in elections. And the question is, how many more times can they do that?
Michael Pope 28:58
Which seats are you talking about there, specifically?
Trevor Southerland 28:58
I mean, assuming we're under the current district, you've got to look at the current Cauc-seat. You've got to look at the Roxane Robinson seat, even down you know even Amanda Batten's seat was not won very heavily so there's places where you can make plays. Who's the other Virginia Beach seat that I'm that I'm thinking about? You know, there's there's four or five yeah Davis and further south. Sorry, just blanking on the name. I mean there's there's four or five, six, Republican held seats in the House right now that were close when it was just the House and Senate up. You know, when you put a statewide campaign on top of it, I think those seats come more into play. So, you know, that's something you're gonna have to look at and the first, you know, financial reports that just came out were not good for House Republicans. So you know, that's always the question how many defenses are they going to have? And how many offenses will that allow them?
Michael Pope 30:03
And another sort of wildcard in this discussion is what the heck is redistricting going to look like? And that's a direct result of what happens this November, there's this potential amendment on the ballot. And so let's think about the different scenarios here. Does the what's the scenario with the amendment and how that plays out versus without the amendment? I'll open this up to either the that want to talk about this. I'm just wondering like is do you prefer one of the scenarios over the other? Or do you think there it all kind of is going to basically be the same thing? Or are there radically different outcomes, depending on if the amendment wins or loses?
Trevor Southerland 30:42
I mean, I guess the first question, honestly, is when do we get the census data? The census data could make that question irrelevant, quite frankly, if it comes in too late. I think if the Constitutional Amendment passes, there's a process that that group has to go through that would maybe move slower than if that Constitutional Amendment wasn't in place, so I think it really comes down more to the census data than it does the constitutional amendment. But, Jeff do you-
Jeff Ryer 31:09
I concur. I mean, it really more than anything, the timing of the census data and whether or not it's available, which ordinarily wouldn't be in question. We've never had a problem in the past. But this year, as you can tell, the census has been delayed, you know, technically, we're all supposed to have it filled out by April 1 of this year. Well, you know, you're watching some efforts to get people to fill them out now. So that's a major part of it, and that that will be determinative. I think.
Michael Pope 31:33
Jeff, was there a situation where the they ended up having to run on the old seats, and then the next year they had another election to run a new seats, and then the following year, they had to get a regularly scheduled election. So there were like three elections within three years. Right. So we- what explain what happened then and are we likely to see something similar now?
Jeff Ryer 31:53
The Democrat Majority General Assembly redistricted in a way that did not go over well, with the courts and the plan was thrown out. And as part of the relief from the plan, the plaintiffs managed to get the court to force a run under the new lines the same year. That's how that three times happened.
Michael Pope 32:18
When was that? What time period are we talking about?
Jeff Ryer 32:20
81? 82? Right. That's correct.
Michael Pope 32:24
What's that multi Decker district? Wasn't that-
Jeff Ryer 32:27
What that was, yeah, that Yeah, that was the problem. It was it was multi there were like super delegates like it was a rather convoluted plan, as most of the Democrat plans were because it was difficult to figure out a way to keep them all in power during that period of time. But the legislature or the commission would have to behave particularly egregiously to get a court to do that again. And that really was what the circumstance was during the 80s. It was just viewed by the court as as a recalcitrant legislature and he showed, they showed them.
Michael Pope 33:00
Of course, the circumstance is not the same, because the all kinds of reasons but the situation where you've got this election under the old map, and then the subsequent year election under a new map, and then the following year, the regularly scheduled election, could we see something like that trends happening now?
Jeff Ryer 33:17
I would, I would, I would say that it's not likely. I know, there's a lot of fear about that, but I just don't see the circumstances replicating themselves. And if the House runs under the old lines for another two year term, I don't think the courts knowing that the Senate wouldn't be up until 2023 anyway, would see it as a particularly problematic circumstance.
Michael Pope 33:38
Thomas, wouldn't that be like a Full Employment Act for people who do consulting three consecutive years of elections?
Thomas Bowman 33:44
Yeah, it's a bright future I guess for us. But for the rest of America, not so much. I'm sorry that the legislators would have to run it's not easy to be a part time legislator as it is and three years in a row. Sounds miserable to me. All right, well, guys, let's take a break. When we come back, we're going to preview the 2021 election.
Michael Pope 35:00
And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking to Trevor Southerland, the former Executive Director of the House Democratic Caucus, and Jeff Ryer, the Press Secretary for the Senate Republican Caucus. Trevor, I'm interested in picking your brain about 2021, everybody's favorite parlor game. Talk about the current state of the top of the ticket. Everyone wants to know who's going to be the next governor, and there's been lots of people that have already thrown their hat into the ring a year out before the Primary, and yet the person that seems to be the odds on favorite hasn't even announced yet. What is the state, right now, of the Democratic Primary for 2021.
Trevor Southerland 36:04
Well, I mean, I think you've got, you know, Jennifer Carroll Foy, who actually planned on jumping in earlier than she did. COVID delayed her announcement, and I think that's largely, she made those plans because she's relatively newer and unknown in a large part of the state, so if she's going to make a jump to Governor, she's going to have to spend more time campaigning and more time getting known. And obviously COVID has thrown a little bit of a wrench in that. Jennifer McClellan made her announcement just recently, she's been somebody that's been speculated to run several times. And so I think she's a very interesting prospect. And then of course, we're all waiting to see what Governor McAuliffe's decision is, certainly looks like he's going to run. But he has said he's, he's not going to make that decision until after November, sort of going back to what Jeff said earlier of people waiting to see what happens on the federal level.
Michael Pope 37:03
On that issue, I'm curious if Biden wins, won't McAuliffe have a very strong temptation to potentially join the Biden cabinet?
Jeff Ryer 37:14
Temptation? He'll be campaigning for it for God's sakes. He wants to be Commerce Secretary. He wanted to be Commerce Secretary four years ago. He's still wondering why he couldn't take the plane up to Chappaqua that night.
Trevor Southerland 37:25
I I am sure, I am sure that a President Biden would would love to have Governor McAuliffe in his administration. I think the question for Governor McAuliffe is is that something he wants to do? Or, you know, does he want to go back into an executive role? You know, that's something you've heard a lot about people who have had been in politics, you know, once they've been Governor, once they've had that executive role, they don't necessarily like going back into a role that's no longer that executive position. So I think that's a question he's gonna have to answer for himself at some point.
Michael Pope 38:00
If McAuliffe is playing the long game and McAuliffe potentially wants to be president, wouldn't joining the Biden administration be a better way of following that path?
Trevor Southerland 38:12
I mean, possibly, but you know, also it's it can be harder to get recognition. There's going to be a Vice President under Joe Biden, there's going to be you know, if you're thinking about McAuliffe as Commerce Secretary, there's going to be a Secretary of State, there's going to be a, you know, new Senate leadership when Democrats take the majority in the US Senate. So you know, you're going to see stuff like that happening. I caught that Jeff.
Jeff Ryer 38:39
I got him.
Trevor Southerland 38:42
So, you know, you're gonna see that but there's gonna be other people on that national level. Whereas again, when you're Governor of a state, you get to be the Governor, you get to take credit for what happens in that state. It's a little harder from a Commerce Secretary position to take credit for broad things, you can take credit for commerce, but you can't necessarily take credit for everything that's happening.
Michael Pope 39:08
And Jeff, on the Republican side, if you think about the Republican Primary for Governor, let me let me check my notes here. There's Uh huh, there's Amanda Chase. Right.
Jeff Ryer 39:21
And Bill Kericho and Pete Schneider.
Michael Pope 39:25
Okay. Well, though Kericho hasn't announced yet, but let's say-
Jeff Ryer 39:28
I mean, everything but. I mean, all right. McAuliffe hasn't announced either I didn't hear you talk about the throwdown between you know, Caroll Foy and McClellan.
Trevor Southerland 39:39
Does Kericho have a million dollars in the bank. We don't know about.
Jeff Ryer 39:42
No, no, no, no. Look, yeah, these races tend to develop a little differently. I can go back and show you the Washington Post articles about Governor Mary Sue Terry and because there was just this automatic assumption that George Allen broke after coming out of a Republican Convention couldn't win. And by the way, the polling showed he could, but gee, he was Governor, I remember that, and it was kind of a large margin too. Uh, you know,it's a little difficult to make projections on what is going to happen in the following year, in Virginia, following a presidential election. Beyond the fact that you know that one party is going to have the wind at their backs if they just lost The White House.
Michael Pope 40:21
Did I hear you correctly earlier in suggesting that Rob Whittman might be interested in running for Governor?
Jeff Ryer 40:27
Rob Wittman has expressed interest before in running for Governor, if you remember correctly, he was campaigning for it when Ed Gillespie was going for the nomination and Rob stepped back. So yeah, he has expressed interest before. Right now he's obviously committed to winning his House seat but you know, politicians look at things differently depending on the circumstance that they're in. If suddenly, you're looking around and Nancy Pelosi is in charge for the next four years, and Joe Biden is or next two years rather and Joe Biden is president of the United States, the Governor of Virginia might look a little bit more attractive.
Michael Pope 41:01
Trevor, what do you make of the imbalance between all of this pool of all these many people who have already announced for Governor in Virginia, and yet on the Republican side, there's only one what do you what do you make of that imbalance?
Trevor Southerland 41:14
Well, I mean, it's it's where the momentum currently is. It's the Democrats have the momentum in Virginia. We've elected a lot of new people in the last four years that you know, need to get their names out if they want to go into that statewide position. So for those folks, whether you're talking about Jay Jones versus Shannon Taylor versus possibly other people for AG whether you're looking at LG where you've got Hala Yala, possibly Elizabeth Guzman, possibly Andrea McClellan, you know, you're looking at people who need to get their name out and they want to be on top of that on the Republican side-
Jeff Ryer 41:49
Wait a minute, wait a minute, you're not going to throw Justin Fairfax into that mix? I haven't heard his name mentioned once today. Why is it that?
Trevor Southerland 41:49
I didn't mention Mark Herring either well I don't know what either one of them are gonna do yet.
Jeff Ryer 42:03
What about mere skinny jeans? You haven't mentioned him either. Is he is he going to run for for something higher up?
Trevor Southerland 42:09
Who knows? We have a very deep bench on the Democratic side. We have a very deep bench and only three statewide elected offices on the Republican side. You've got Amanda Chase, and I did see it looks like Glenn Davis wants to get the minivan out of retirement run for LG again, so that's exciting.
Jeff Ryer 42:28
It was an RV. It's not a minivan. It might be a Winnebago.
Trevor Southerland 42:34
Me and Glenn are good friends on Twitter. He loves me there. So you know, I'm excited about that possibility. But otherwise, they're all waiting and hoping that a Biden win will do that traditional, you know, change back where they suddenly have momentum again. So I think that's what you're seeing on their side and we don't have that problem right now.
Thomas Bowman 42:55
So I've got a question for the two of you really, one of the things that really irks me in this COVID era is seeing all of the campaign emails coming in asking for money and so many people right now are unemployed and don't have it. How do you raise money for what could be a $40 million race by the end of it when everybody's out of work and suffering from Coronavirus? What's going on these statewide candidates?
Trevor Southerland 43:23
Well, I think you've also seen a lot of them have put sort of disclaimers on their emails that have said things like, you know, if you're able at this time and things like that, but look, people who want to give are still going to give, if they're able. And so as a campaign, you've still got to ask because you've, you've still got to hit those fundraising numbers. So I think we're going to keep getting those emails. We're going to keep seeing them come across and as of right now, from the recent finance reports, people are still giving pretty generously so it'll be interesting to see how that holds up. As you know, COVID develops.
Jeff Ryer 44:01
I actually don't think COVID is as large a fundraising problem as it is for the statewide people competing with the federals right now. Because the federal campaigns are raising astronomical sums, and they are kind of at the moment, and they're sucking up an awful lot of oxygen. I mean, as a Republican, you know, the President, his daughter, Laura, his son, Don Jr., occasionally, Eric, these people text me three and four times a day. It's amazing. I mean, I I hear from them constantly. And there's all kinds of clubs I can join and everything. I can, I can be part of the Platinum club or the VIP club, I can be on the donor wall, you know, and, and they're sending me a free flag, a welcome mat, you know, all kinds of all kinds of spiffs and premiums. You know, it's hard to compete with that.
Thomas Bowman 44:53
Campaign finance in Virginia is such a messy, messy topic because it's pretty much the Wild West and a lot of ways you know, anything goes. Just report it right?
Jeff Ryer 45:02
Well, anything goes just report it, I think has served the state well, in comparison to dark money at the federal level. Yeah. And, you know, there's some that isn't discussed a whole bunch, but I would put our system up against what has been structured at the federal level, which was designed to create reform and everything else, which I think is as had the opposite effect.
Thomas Bowman 45:22
Trevor, what are the impact of these big checks in an era like COVID, where it might be tougher to get all these small donors? Does that have an outsized influence from your experience as a finance director for the Caucus?
Trevor Southerland 45:35
I mean, obviously, it matters that big checks are, you know, nice, nice to get. So I think it's a big thing. I do, you know, sort of think campaign finance reform is something that it's it's easy to talk about, it's hard to do, for the reasons that Jeff mentioned, you know. It's it's easy to say, people shouldn't be able to give millions to campaigns, because that's, you know, a lot of people would agree with that statement. But I've worked in states with limits, there are limits on the federal level and if people want to get involved, there are ways that you can do it, whether it's a C three, C, four, 527, super PAC, whatever it is. And a lot of times, if the money isn't hidden, it's, it's at least harder to find than it is here in Virginia. I think, you know, one of the questions that you're seeing play out here in Virginia, is you know, what happens when there's say, one couple that can give massive amounts of money? And what influence do they ask for in exchange for that money, if any.
Jeff Ryer 46:40
Trevor you are so brave.
Trevor Southerland 46:43
I know.
Jeff Ryer 46:43
Trevor, I was gonna I was gonna bring that up and you brought it up.
Trevor Southerland 46:48
You were gonna bring it up? Wow. I don't know why.
Jeff Ryer 46:51
Of course I was. How could I how can I miss the Bill Smith controversy and the latest problems and Democrat Twitter wars over who gives how much to whom?
Thomas Bowman 47:04
I will take full credit for jacking up Amanda Chases money.
Jeff Ryer 47:08
I bet you were very proud of that, weren't you?
Thomas Bowman 47:10
It's always nice to cut off Republican money.
Michael Pope 47:13
We probably need to wrap up the episode sometime soon. So, I want to leave it on this note, Trevor, have you ever heard of the recording artist, Randy Newman?
Trevor Southerland 47:24
I have heard of Randy Newman.
Michael Pope 47:26
Okay. Are you a fan?
Trevor Southerland 47:28
I can't say that I'm necessarily a fan.
Michael Pope 47:32
Because you know who is a big time fan?
Trevor Southerland 47:34
Who is?
Michael Pope 47:35
Jeff Ryer.
Trevor Southerland 47:37
Jeff Ryer?
Michael Pope 47:38
Not only is a big time fan, he's done so much of it. I was afraid a little tiny podcast who's gonna have to pay for all kinds of songs. So Randy, would you like to burst into song for the end of our show?
Jeff Ryer 47:49
Randy has a new song out you can download it from this website. And it is as everything Randy does, absolutely brilliant. Hi, I committed committed to all so please go to randynewman.com and download the latest work.
Michael Pope 48:10
Trevor, do you have any offbeat musical interests or recording artists that you're a fan of that most people have never heard of?
Trevor Southerland 48:19
I can't say. I'm pretty dull when it comes to music. I'm sorry, I can't even go as far out as Randy Newman.
Thomas Bowman 48:27
Honestly I like that Trevor. That means you've got your head in the game.
Michael Pope 48:31
How about Gary Newman?
Thomas Bowman 48:35
All right, well, this is going off the rails quick. I'm gonna go ahead and take us out. Thank you for listening to Transition Virginia. Find us on iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts. We are on Twitter at Transition VA and you can find us on the web at www.transition.virginia.com
