Chaz Nuttycombe: Who Will Win Elections in Virginia’s New House Districts?
Up first, Gov. Glenn Youngkin is making waves in his first day in office with Executive Orders that some Virginia localities say they'll ignore. New Republican Speaker Todd Gilbert has already thrown the first punch by tweeting an insult at Ralph Northam in the middle of his farewell speech.
Redistricting is the episode topic with the most fan requests, and we finally have new maps to discuss. We start with the House of Delegates. Some districts have two or three incumbents, while others have none. What are each party's chances at winning the chambers in the newly redistricted maps? Analyst Chaz Nuttycombe is on the is on the pod to walk you through it all.
The full interview is exclusive to Patreons- find the link on our linktree.
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Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Thomas Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Pod Virginia, the podcast that takes you inside Virginia politics. Later in the show, we'll talk about the new redistricted maps in the House of Delegates. Chaz Nuttycombe will be joining us to go through all the districts that now have multiple incumbents.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And we've got Chaz Nuttycombe because he's such a popular guest, according to our last 2021 Top 10, Michael. So we decided that because redistricting was the most requested episode that we hadn't done yet, and Chaz Nuttycombe was such a popular guest, then why don't we marry the two, and why don't we have Chaz on to explain to us what each party's chances would look like in the new districts, as currently drawn?
Michael Pope
Yeah, and you know, Chaz was so popular in 2021, he appeared on our Top 10 list of most popular episodes, not once, but twice. So you're definitely going to want to stick around later in the podcast to hear Chaz Nuttycombe talk about the two member districts, the three member districts, and the politics of what might happen. But first, let's get to the news. Glenn Youngkin, is now Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. He was sworn in at the Capitol with about 7000 of his closest friends. In his Inaugural Address, he said he'll, "Start his day one agenda where the future is determined: In the classroom."
Glenn Youngkin
We will remove politics from the classroom and refocus on essential math, and science, and reading. And we will teach all of our history, the good and the bad.
Michael Pope
But we won't be teaching Critical Race Theory. After delivering the speech, he issued Executive Order Number One, that bans Critical Race Theory from public school classrooms in Virginia, even though it's not taught in public school classrooms in Virginia. Now, he also signed an executive order to let parents decide whether their children should be wearing masks at schools. So Thomas, Youngkin, was elected on the issue of education. He talked about it on the campaign trail. It was right at the top of his agenda. Now he's Governor, he's got a mandate. What can we expect from the Youngkin era, in terms of public education?
Thomas Bowman
Oh, it's gonna be a long four years, Michael. I want to read to you a tweet that Justin Wilson put out on Saturday, after Glenn Youngkin issued his executive order prohibiting public schools in Virginia from issuing mass mandates. Justin said, "Article eight, section seven of the Constitution of Virginia and then quotes, 'The supervision of schools in each school division, shall be vested in a school board to be composed of members selected in the manner for the term, possessing the qualifications, and to the number provided by law.'" What that means is Glenn Youngkin, is very quickly going to run up against the Constitution of Virginia when he tries to prohibit localities from issuing masks mandates, or interfere in the way that school districts do their business. And there's a good historical reason for this. Virginia localities were split over massive resistance. This is why we have such a focus, historically, on local control, and local authority, because Louisa County, and Prince George County, they did not want to integrate Arlington, Alexandria, well, especially Arlington, did want to integrate and so to avoid localities in Virginia from having a civil war of their own, they said, "Okay, well, we'll just let each school division do its own thing. "And that's the roots of this. And so now that we can fast forward to 2020, we have somebody who, you know, their first item out of the gate is to ban Critical Race Theory, when other governors since Linwood Holton have used their very first executive order to advance Equal Opportunity.
Michael Pope
It is interesting to me that a lot of these executive orders might end up in a lawsuit. You know, Youngkin also had an executive order removing Virginia from Reggie. And I know environmentalists are interested in challenging that in court, because they say joining Reggie was something that was approved by the General Assembly, it was signed by the Governor, it's in the Code. And so the Governor doesn't have the power to undo that. And so there might be a lawsuit on that. You know, allowing parents to decide if their children wear masks or not, as you just pointed out, you've got- you're going to have local school boards across Virginia saying, "Hey, wait a minute, that's our responsibility, we get to make that decision, not the Governor." So I would imagine there would- might be lawsuits on that, too. So I mean, we're just starting out this administration, we've already got some potentially interesting legal challenges here on the horizon.
Thomas Bowman
The Executive can say and do whatever they want, and this is the flaw in the system, because they also manage the enforcement of things. So even if a Supreme Court rules against them, that doesn't mean they can't take the action in the first place. That doesn't mean they can't cause years of headaches, and drama. So this is the future that Virginia now faces- is yes, he does not have the ability to take Virginia out of Reggie, but he does have the ability to just act like he does. And he does have the ability to force everybody to sue him and wait on a judge to rule. And if the judge rules in the favor of the legislature, in the meantime, he's caused potentially years of confusion. And so, if I'm thinking about this from a business' perspective, I actually don't want Virginia out of Reggie, because it's bad for business, to have such extreme policy whiplash, and to create this uncertain environment around such a substantially important policy.
Michael Pope
Well, on that issue of whiplash, you know, there was a lot of concern among environmentalists going into the session, that there might be this effort to get rid of the Clean Economy Act, just sort of like a wholesale rejection or overturn it. And one of the very first things that happened when Republicans had their press conference announcing their agenda, was Terry Kilgore said, "We're not interested in an overturn, of the Clean Economy Act." So I think you heard- I think you heard a lot of environmentalists breathe a sigh of relief. Of course, they do want to undermine elements of it. And they're going to be going in piecemeal to get rid of things, but not an overall, wholesale rejection of it, which is, to your point, avoids that issue of whiplash, and sort of drastic turns one way or the other, which is sort of better for the business climate.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, exactly. And, on that note, what you might see the Republicans try to do is something that actually Europe is starting to do increasingly, because it is running out of energy. So they're, they're doing it out of a matter of necessity. They're adding natural gas to the list of green and renewable resources. It is not a green resource, it does not renewable energy. There is such a thing as renewable natural gas, but it is a technology that still emits tons of methane into the air.
Michael Pope
Alright, well, the 2022 General Assembly Session began with a bang, outgoing Governor Ralph Northam delivered his fourth and final State of the Commonwealth Address, and he said, "We cannot pick and choose history based on how it makes us feel," adding that, "Black children have the right to have their history included too, even if it makes us feel uncomfortable." That prompted New House Speaker Todd Gilbert to go on Twitter during the speech, and say this quote, "Ralph Northam is leaving office as his own lost cause, condescendingly lecturing us from some assumed moral high ground, because he read the book, 'Roots' and then went on a nonstop reconciliation tour." After the speech was over, I tracked down the Speaker of the House and asked him about that tweet. Here's part of our discussion. Mr. Speaker. Sir, can I ask you about your tweet on 'Roots'?
Todd Gilbert
My tweet is about Ralph Northam. Yeah. My tweet is about the condescending nature of the Governor, all of a sudden being the de facto spokesperson for race relations in this in this commonwealth, and if, if his party wants him to be the face of that, they can own that, but I'm definitely tired of being lectured on things like that by the likes of Governor Northam.
Michael Pope
When you say, "things like that," just to be clear, what exactly was the message that you wanted to send to them?
Todd Gilbert
I think the Governor's words about matters of race, and equity, and, and all of that, spoke for themselves. And he has continued to speak about these things over and over and over again, all in a very self serving fashion. And again, if he is cheered by those who called for his resignation, repeatedly cheered, by those who called for his resignation. So maybe he is- has just come to be an effective tool to advance other interests, I don't know. But I- the fact that he is embraced as a as the spokesperson for these issues, after all that we've been through, is very interesting to me. And very, I have I've grown weary of being lectured by matters of race by by Ralph Northam.
Michael Pope
Now, Democrats were really angered by this. Although, I had a hard time getting anyone to go on the record to respond immediately after the speech, that includes former Speaker Filler-Corn who didn't have much to say, at the time. I think she later made a public statement about it. But you know, who was willing to speak about this right after it happened, was Senator Adam Ebbin.
Adam Ebbin
I think it's sad that he demeans his office on his first day by gauging in such uncivil dialogue. And it's just seems like a really spoiled, petulant attitude to be so resentful of someone who has worked hard to bring Virginia together.
Michael Pope
So this session is really off to a heck of a start, Thomas. So there's two ways to look at this. One, is sort of the superficial part about mean tweets, and people saying nasty things. But there's a deeper thing going on here, too, which is the discussion about who owns history. This goes back to our earlier discussion about what Youngkin said in his Inaugural Address. I think there's a lot of anxiety over how we want to teach our history. What what do we want to include? What do we...are there things that we might not want to include? And so I mean, there's the sort of back and forth here about people being mean to each other. But then there's also this very serious question of what is our history and how do we talk about it?
Thomas Bowman
Well, there's a saying that history books are written by the winners. And unfortunately, for the next four years, the Republicans are the winners. So I mean, I don't know what to tell you, if you don't like that, or if you don't agree with that. But the Republicans are going to get to purchase the textbooks, are going to issue the policy from the Department of Ed level. And there's a school board member that I was talking to, earlier today, she said that, you know, the local school boards have a fight ahead of them. And there's gonna be a lot of lawsuits, there's going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth among parents of either side of the ideological spectrum, and confusion, not just over COVID, but it's going to be about curriculums, it's going to be about pedagogy, it's going to be about methods. And so for the next four years, Professor Umbridge is the head of Hogwarts. So that's kind of what we're dealing with right now. And the Senate is going to uphold what they can, but it's a 21/19 slim majority. So if you get anybody who walks, and there's speculation that one of the reasons Ralph Northam pardoned Senator Morrissey, was to prevent him from voting with Republicans, and to offer him an olive branch, because it's not, you know, when you get into the General Assembly session, it's not so much what the public thinks, it's not so much how the public votes. It's, what are the 40 senators and the 100 General Assembly members, what do they think? How are they going to vote?
Michael Pope
So on the issue of who owns the past, and how do we think about it? And how do we teach it in the schools? There is a note of optimism here because one of the things Youngkin said in his Inaugural Address is that he wants to make sure Virginia schools teach all the history, the good and the bad. And Thomas, that line got a lot of applause. So I mean, there is at least, superficially, talk of making sure that we teach, as he said, all the history, the good and the bad.
Yeah. And then he turned around and passed EO one, which was to prohibit Critical Race Theory being taught in the classroom. Now, it's not taught in the classroom. But Critical Race Theory is just a framework for analysis of history. So there's nothing to teach in the classroom. There's no agenda behind it. It's just a different framework for analyzing history. And so the reality is, he might have said something that everybody agrees with. But then he did something that runs counter to all of that, so you should really be watching what they do, and completely disregard what they say.
Michael Pope
Well, so the session has now started, and we- the session, the House session began with a unanimous vote for Todd Gilbert's to be Speaker. So this is a long tradition in Virginia politics that I think is probably surprising to people who, you know, are more accustomed to the way things are done in Washington, where that's a party line vote. When you vote for Speaker, the D's vote for the D's, and the R's vote for the R's. It's never a unanimous vote for the U.S. House Speaker. But that is how things are done in Virginia, which is supposed to be this, you know, showing of undivided support for the beginning of the session, and that sort of thing. But Thomas, later in the same day, the same day, every member, Democratic member of the House of Delegates, voted for him to be Speaker. He's on Twitter, trolling the Governor. What did you make of that?
Thomas Bowman
Oh, I make of it being a strong Speaker state. Once again, it's not so much what 7 million Virginians believe, it's about what your 100 or 99 colleagues in the General Assembly believe. And the Speaker in Virginia controls all of the appointments. Whereas in the House, your Minority Leader appoints the minority members, and the Speaker appoints the majority members.
Michael Pope
You know, one thing also, one last point about this tweet from Todd Gilbert, that's worth thinking about is, is this just a creation of social media? Or was there something else going on there? In other words, Gilbert actually did that tweet during the speech, you know, like, while he was in the Chamber, while the speech was going on. Pretend for a second Twitter didn't exist. After the speech was over with, normally what happens is, everybody goes out to the center part of the Capitol Building, and they have their pressors. Right? So like, the Speaker will speak to the press, and the the leaders will speak to the press, and that sort of thing. If Twitter didn't exist, after the speech was over with, would a Speaker Gilbert have walked out into like the media gaggles, and said that, or is that just a creation of social media?
Thomas Bowman
Oh, well, that's hard to speculate on. Because I think that's going to be very much determined by the personality of the Speaker. If you've got a pugnacious Speaker, like speaker Gilbert, then he very well could have gone out into the press gaggle. And given his response. There's no advantage, in my opinion. to the Speaker being on Twitter, the Speaker should have more important things to do, no matter who they are, especially, you know, think about this, from the staffers point of view. If you're the Speaker of the House of Delegates, or the Speaker of any House, all of your communications should be coming through your staff, they should not be coming through you. Like I said, you should have more important things to do. But two, your staff are there to protect you, and keep you from causing problems that you don't intend. And so if I were the Speaker's Communications Director, I would not be happy about this tweet, not because I agree or disagree with it, but because it didn't come through us. And when you're the Speaker of the House of Delegates, all of those tweets, all of your communications, need to go to the staff that you trust enough to hire. Alright, well, I'll get off my soapbox now, Michael. We got to take a break. When we come back, we're going to talk to Chaz Nuttycombe about the new redistricting maps for the House of Delegates. He's gonna help us understand the environment for all the Delegates who now find themselves in a double, or even triple, member district. We'll be right back.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Pod Virginia. We're joined by the Director of CNalysis, an election forecasting group that specializes in state legislative races. Returning to the podcast, our friend, Chaz Nuttycombe, thanks for joining us.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Hey, thanks for having me on again. It's always a pleasure.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, welcome back, Chaz. So what do we think about these new maps?
Chaz Nuttycombe
So I think when you're talking about 2022, or 2023, whichever, you know, the next time these districts are up, I think Republicans are going to be favored, very slightly favored, though, they're not certain, to hold their majority in the House. And they will be slight favorites to pick up the State Senate. That is what I've seen as I went through these maps, and looked at previous election results, presidential results, in these districts, using Dave's redistricting app and the best numbers from Harvard. So that is the overall look for the State Legislative Chambers next time they are up. Now that being said, once there's a Republican in the White House, I'm not saying it's likely, but there is going to be a decent chance that Democrats will have the ability to have a supermajority in the House of Delegates.
Michael Pope
Alright, so the thing that's really interesting about these new maps is that there are so many districts that have double members, and even triple members. So what we want to do with this podcast, is go district by district, with all of these new seats that have two members, or three members. And so let's start with the House of Delegates seats up in Nova, where we've got Kathleen Murphy and Rip Sullivan, both in the newly created House District Six. Chaz, what do you think's gonna happen there?
Chaz Nuttycombe
When it comes to all these double incumbents, it's hard to say, who's going to, you know, move, who's going to just retire, who's actually going to want to not move and run against a fellow incumbent. So it's, you know, it's all kind of speculative. But, you know, I would say that Murphy would probably be a favorite in that district in a primary. It's mostly her base, and I think Sullivan would struggle.
Thomas Bowman
That's interesting. I personally, just think Murphy is gonna retire. I don't think that she really wants to have a primary.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah.
Thomas Bowman
Rip Sullivan's a lot younger. Obviously, this is all speculation until it happens. And elected officials may say one thing, but until they actually don't put their name on the ballot, you know, it's anybody's game, I guess.
Michael Pope
You know, on the issue of retirement, I was speaking to someone who was saying, you know, California does this all the time, every redistricting cycle, they have maps, where they have double and triple and whatever. And it's very frequent, in California politics, for people to find a way to gracefully bow out and not run again. So I think that is going to happen with a lot of these people that we talk about today.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, I mean, there are some incumbents who I know are quite likely to retire. But for those I'm not well aware of, you know, I'll just say, you know, who I think would be a favorite, in a scenario where, you know, you have both of these incumbents running, but that's not to say, I think they will.
Michael Pope
Well, then let's move over to House District, Lucky 13, the newly created 13 House District that has both Kaye Kory and Marcus Simon. Chaz, what do you make of this?
Chaz Nuttycombe
I would say, Simon, is a slight favorite in this district. I know that he made a push to...when it came to putting comments on the redistricting maps on the first draft, then he made a big push for that, to try and get his district as similar as possible, but I think he would be favored in a hypothetical primary here. Because again, it is it is mostly his territory still.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I think that's right, Chaz. This district includes all of Falls Church, including the Fairfax County portions of it. And this is very friendly territory for Marcus Simon. Kaye Kory has been in the legislature for quite a while, and she has an opportunity, if she doesn't want to have a primary, to go out as a Committee Chair.
Michael Pope
And then turning our attention to the newly created 18th District. This pairs Eileen Filler-Corn with Kathy Tran. Chaz, what might happen with that seat?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so this is an interesting race. You got former Speaker of the House of Delegates, who now leads the Democrats in the minority, versus, you know, a relatively new member of the House of Delegates, Kathy Tran, who flipped House District 42. Most of the voters in this district though, and it's very slight, but we're in Vivian Watts' district, but second, and it's a pretty close second, is Kathy Tran's constituents. So I think this is going to be one of those cases where somebody is going to move. I could see the former Speaker moving to the open District 15. So I think this is going to be one of those things where you got somebody move into a different seat. You could also have Tran move to the open 19th District. Both of these are adjacent to the 18th. So I think somebody is likely to move between these two districts.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And what's interesting is Kathy Tran is now in what will become Dave Marsden's Senate seat, and there's a thought that she might run against Dave Marsden for the seat that actually was mostly represented by Dick Saslaw in the current, well in the now former lines. So there are a lot of options here and yeah, Eileen could move, Kathy can stay, Kathy can move, Eileen can stay, or Eileen can stay and Kathy can stay by running for Senate.
Michael Pope
Turning our attention to the newly created 24th District in Nova, we've got a pairing with Elizabeth Guzman and Luke Torian. Chaz, what do you make of that district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Now this is going to be one that I think is interesting. Guzman is, you know, one of the more progressive members of the House of Delegates, whereas Torian I would say is, you know, a pretty standard liberal, and it's mostly Guzman's constituents in this district. You know, I'm not sure if you know, somebody will want to move, or step up, or what have you. But, you know, if the both of them decided to run against each other, I think that would attract a lot of attention from progressive Virginians, and progressive Virginian groups, and outside progressive groups who would want to help Guzman stay in the Chamber and beat Torian. It is mostly her constituents in this district. So you know, we'll see what happens. But I would say Guzman would probably, honestly, win this primary.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And there's also an empty district right next door that Guzman could move into if she didn't want to try to go up against the former Appropriations Chair. And Jeremy McPike now represents the Senate District that she's in, that Guzman could also try to move up, and run for Senate in a seat that is almost entirely her constituents.
Michael Pope
And McPike might end up running for Congress. Right? So that could be a seat that might be vacated sometime in the near future?
Thomas Bowman
Well, and what's interesting about this race, too, is Guzman is a favorite of some of the more progressive unions, and Luke Torian has positioned himself to also be very pro union. If you recall, he sent out an email on Labor Day last year, announcing his support for repealing Right to Work. That was a big deal. And the unions noticed. So because of that, if Guzman's biggest backers, which are unions, don't want to get involved in this primary, because it's two good friends of theirs, there might be less resistance for Guzman to move up, and try to take out Jeremy McPike, who is not as pro-union.
Michael Pope
Alright, one last seat in Northern Virginia, the newly created 30th District with Dave LaRock and Michael Webert. Chaz, what do you think happens out there?
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think this is LaRock's. District, I don't really see how Webert could win that seat. And you know, he wouldn't have to move pretty far South District 62, which has Madison, part of Culpeper, Orange, it's got Greene County as well, but it doesn't really have much of his constituency, either. So he's, he's got a really tough time here. I don't see where he can go. So he may just retire. The interesting thing is that is a narrow Biden district. It's trending leftward. I think that in- next time, there's a Republican in the White House, it's going to flip. And I think Democrats would be very happy if they finally get to beat LaRock when that time comes. He'll be fine, you know, in 2022, or 2023. That's not going to be really a winnable seat for Democrats, because it voted for Biden by like less than 1%, I want to say. Exactly, yeah. 0.22% according to Vest. So that's, that's not really in reach for Democrats. But yeah, LaRock should should win that primary if, Webert wants to run there, but I think he's pretty much screwed.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And that part of Loudoun is very much more favorable to a traditional, socially conservative Republican, whereas Michael Webert, sure he's conservative, but he's more of a Libertarian than a Republican, at least the way that Dave LaRock is.
Michael Pope
Alright, moving down south, out of Northern Virginia, moving into the Central Virginia, Richmond area. One of the most fascinating seats is the newly created 78th District that has Don Adams, Jeff Bourne, and Betsy Carr. Chaz, what do you make of this new district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, I'm very excited for that. You know, and I really like that district. I think it really connects, you know, the parts of Richmond City that, you know, you got a lot of you got VCU, you got Downtown, you got, you know, the old money areas, you got... It's a very, very good community of interest. I really like that district. But that being said, you know, it's got a lot of incumbents in it. I think Adams would be favored here. It's got mostly her constituents. Now Bourne isn't too far behind. But it's a very, very white district. And I think Adams would just do better there. I think Bourne could maybe move somewhere if he wanted to, but you know, he would still have to go against someone else. The 79th would probably be better for Bourne. You know, I think you could have musical chairs where Adams runs in the 78th, Bourne runs in 79th, may be against McQuinn, or McQuinn can move into the 81st which is open, which has mostly her constituents, and then you have Carr going into open 77. So I think I think it's likely we see musical chairs, or just flat out retirements in Richmond, because I have a hard time seeing Adams lose this kind of district. I, I think she's very well known in these areas, even the areas she hasn't represented. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens in the Richmond City and Eastern Henrico districts.
Thomas Bowman
On that potential district that Betsy Carr might move to if she wants to stay in the House of Delegates and not face a primary against Don Adams. What does that Bon Air District look like? It's not too far away from her current neighborhood. Is that a winnable district for Democrats, or is that a tougher fight?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Oh, yeah, that's a safe Democratic seat. It voted for Biden by 50 points.
Thomas Bowman
Alright, so Carr would stick around if she wanted to move.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yes, it's it's plurality Black. And now the issue is, that's- I do believe that, um, Councilman Mike Jones, right, is running in that seat, who was disqualified trying to run against Carr last year? So that's not to say that, you know, Carr has a totally safe primary. It is mostly her constituents in that district. Yes. But I think, you know, that'll still be in this interesting primary between Carr and Jones.
Michael Pope
So nearby, in the newly created 80th District, we've got another pairing between Lamont Bagby and Schuyler VanValkenburg. Chaz, what do you make of that district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, I feel relatively confident that VanValkenburg would just not seek reelection. I don't think he wants to run against Bagby, and I don't really see him having a chance in hell in that district. There's not really much of his constituency there. There's a good amount, but it is mostly Bagby. And you know, he can't step up to the State Senate because he's in the district McClellan's running in. And it's very unfortunate, because I am personally a fan of Schuyler VanValkenburg. He's a he's a good friend. But yeah, he kind of got the bad end of the stick when it came to redistricting.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I agree. It's a Henrico district. It's mostly Bagby's district. And Bagby has a lot of pull being Chair of the Black Caucus, that Schuyler VanValkenburg just doesn't, not that he couldn't stick around and fight, but like Chaz said, I'm not sure that he's interested in having that fight.
Michael Pope
Ironic, considering Schuyler VanValkenburg was one of the few Democrats in the House that supported the constitutional amendment that led to all this redistricting. So I think he's reaping what he sowed here. Nearby in central Virginia, we've got the newly created 60th District of the House. We've got another Republican head to head here, Buddy Fowler versus Scott Wyatt. And before we get into this one, I will say, I recently interviewed Buddy Fowler about one of his bills, and he flat out told me he plans on establishing residency in a nearby district. That's basically the district that he represents, but no longer currently represents, but no longer lives in. So I don't think we're going to see a head to head there. But Chaz, what do you make of this newly created 60th District?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, as much as I would love to see, you know, another Hanover County Republican mess, you know, the, the equivalent to this 60th District, the old 97th between Chris Peace and Scott Wyatt, that was one of the messiest things I've ever seen. I was raised in Hanover County, and I don't- I didn't live in the 97th, I lived in...Buddy Fowler was my old representative. He'll go into the new 59th District, which is mostly his constituency. You know, the interesting thing about the 59th, I do believe, if if I recall correctly, it is trending leftward. I'm not entirely sure, it voted for Trump by 15 points. I do like how it's got VCC in it. So this district is trending leftward, if I recall correctly, instead of the southern part of Caroline County that is trending to the right. It's an Obama, Trump County. You've got Glen Allen and you know, VCC, an area which is trending left. You know, I could see this district potentially, keyword potentially, being competitive by the latter part of this decade. In which case I do think Buddy Fowler would want to retire. I don't think Buddy Fowler wants to run a competitive race. But yeah, I don't really see Wyatt and Fowler running against each other.
Michael Pope
Alright, slipping down the Urban Crescent, Hampton Roads has a bunch of really interesting races here, head to head matchups. The most interesting of which is the three way race in the newly created 98th, that has Glenn Davis, and Barry Knight, and Kelly Converse Fowler. Chaz, what do you make of that district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think Fowler will want to move or, you know, you know, she if she can move, I think she'll want to move to the open 96th District, which went to Biden by 20 points. It's pretty diverse. And that's mostly her constituency. There's no way Democrat can win the 98th District. It went to Trump by 20 points. You know, I think this is going to be one of those things where, when it comes to the Republicans here, you know, you'll either see a retirement or you know, maybe a primary. I think I think it's more likely that Knight retires. You know, he's he's older than Davis. I don't think Davis wants to step out of the game yet. You know, if one of them were to retire. You know, if Davis lives in the open 22nd State Senate District, he could run there. But I don't see a chance in hell, even in a red wave, that a Republican can win the open 22nd District in Virginia Beach and State Senate, which is a majority/minority District, which voted for Biden quite heavily. So you know, we'll see what happens there.
Thomas Bowman
It sounds like there is somewhere for Kelly Fowler to go.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yes, if Fowler can move into the 96th, and she would be fine. She won't have a competitive district, even in a red wave.
Michael Pope
Alright, also in Hampton Roads, in the newly created 88th, we've got Nadarius Clark and Don Scott, both in the newly created 88th. Chaz, what do you make of that district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, I think that's that's pretty much Scott's district. And I really like Nadarius Clark, I think he's a great addition to the House of Delegates. If I recall correctly, he's the youngest member of the House of Delegates elected since Thomas Jefferson, which is honestly kind of sad, because he's, you know, like 26. And you're able to run for the House of Delegates at 21. God knows when there will be a 21 year old in the House of Delegates, honestly.
Thomas Bowman
What are you waiting for Chaz?
Michael Pope
Chaz, now's your moment.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Number one, I'm 22.
Thomas Bowman
Right.
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'll be I'll be 23 this year, and-
Michael Pope
It's your moment, you're legal!
Chaz Nuttycombe
Number two, I would rather be shot than run for office, genuinely.
Michael Pope
I'm with you.
Chaz Nuttycombe
But so, you know, you have an open district in Norfolk. You know, I really would like to see Nadarius Clark stay in the House of Delegates, but I don't really think he has a shot in that district. The open district in Norfolk, the northern part of it, the 94th, you know, a plurality of it is Clark's constituents. So if he is able to move, you know, he should move there. That being said, I, I wouldn't say he's, you know, got an entirely safe bet in a primary or honestly, even a general election. This district voted for Biden by around 17 points. And that's not to say that Republicans would be favored in that district. But I wouldn't say it's necessarily a lock for Democrats and the next time we have elections in Virginia. So if I, if I were Clark, and he's able to, I would go into the 94th.
Thomas Bowman
Let's talk about the Eastern Shore.
Chaz Nuttycombe
I love, I love this one. I love this one.
Michael Pope
Moving out to the Eastern Shore, we've got the newly created 100th District that pairs two Republicans, Tim Anderson and Rob Bloxom. Chaz, what do you make of that new district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, somewhere, Nancy Guy, cracked open, you know, open a bottle of wine, and just smirked when, when she saw this, and I knew this was going to happen. I was haying and hawing about this, almost a year ago, that because you know, there's there was guidelines, if I recall correctly, with the redistricting commission that, you know, the the old 100 had part of Northern Norfolk, and Eastern Shore, which was not connected in any way. You had to drive through several districts to get there, you had to go across the bridge, right, and then cross through, what, two districts in order to get to the other part of the 100. So now you actually have the northern part, the north western part of Virginia Beach, adjacent to Norfolk. In the new 100. This is pretty much Bloxom's District. There's a good chunk of the 83rd. I do think that Tim Anderson will probably want to run because I don't think he's- I don't think Bloxom is a for sure thing in this district. You know, it is a plurality of his constituency. But he's still, he's more deep rooted in his part of the district, than Anderson is in his. So I think in a primary, it is quite likely that Bloxom wins this. And I think, in that scenario, Nancy Guy is just going to open up another bottle of wine in that case.
Thomas Bowman
Rob Bloxom, notably, does have a town in that district named after his family, the town of Bloxom. Is this a district at all winnable for Democrats, if Nancy Guy wanted to come back and run?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Not...it voted for Trump by nearly six points, a 5.61%, according to Vest, so no. Perhaps later in the decade, you know, Virginia Beach is trending leftward. Just like, you know, pretty much every other educated suburb is in the country, for the most part. So, you know, later in the decade, it could be competitive, you know, when it eventually votes for, you know, a Democratic candidate for president, but uh, no, it's not going to be, it's not going to be winnable, winnable for Democrats, I would even say the next time there is a Republican in the White House.
Michael Pope
Okay, moving out to Southwest. We've also got two Republican head to head matchups. In the newly created 44th, we've got Israel O'Quinn versus Will Wampler. Chaz, what do you make of the new 44th?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, yeah, that's that's gonna be interesting one, you know, the district is pretty much even between the constituencies between these two incumbents. I do not see Wampler wanting to step out. I think, you know, he's, he's still gonna want to run. You know, he's a member of a Southwest dynasty. I think they'll want to run against each other, because, you know, there's no open State Senate seat or anything. I think this is going to be a dogfight. If they do, in fact, run against each other, maybe O'Quinn wants to retire. But you know, I think, you know, if you're talking about primary here, it'd be a toss up.
Michael Pope
All right. Now, Chaz, I've saved one of the most interesting races, here, for the final House district that we want to talk about, which is the newly created 47th, which has two Republicans, Marie March and Wren Williams. Chaz, what do you make of the newly created 47th?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so this is going to be interesting one, you know, these are two new faces in the General Assembly. Marie March, little fun fact, she's the worst performing Republican candidate for the House of Delegates this year. And I would say that is likely because she is very much far to the right as Matt Colt Hall described her as, "drinking from the fire hydrant." You know, she was at January six, she did not go inside the Capitol. But regardless, it'll be interesting. I don't think either of them are going to want to retire. You know, you got a good amount of the constituents that are actually in Jeff Campbell's district, in the old district, in this new map. So all I'll say is, you know, that's, that's gonna be a very fun primary or convention, what have you, to watch.
Thomas Bowman
I'm just buying more popcorn.
Michael Pope
Okay, Chaz, thank you so much for walking through all of these House districts. You got to come back so we can talk about the State Senate and Congress.
Chaz Nuttycombe
I will absolutely do that. It's a delight. Awesome.
Michael Pope
Awesome. Thank you so much.
Chaz Nuttycombe
No problem.
Michael Pope
What you just heard is only part of our discussion with Chaz Nuttycombe. If you want to hear the whole thing, you're gonna have to become a patreon. Yes, that's right. The complete discussion with Chaz Nuttycombe, where we talk about all the double member districts, is only available to patreons who get access to our exclusive content, and you're going to want to become a patreon, so you hear what Chaz Nuttycombe has to say about several of these head to head matchups, including AC Cordoza vs. Gian Ward, Cliff Hayes versus Jay Leftwich, David Bulevar versus Dan Helmer, Dave LaRock, versus Michael Webert, Kathy Byron versus Wendell Walker, John Avoli versus Ronnie Campbell, Terry Austin versus Chris Head all of those head to head matchups, we go through with Chaz, but it's only available to our patreons who get access to our exclusive content. So thank you for listening to this episode of Pod Virginia. Follow us on Twitter, subscribe on Apple iTunes. You can also send us an email at team@jacklegmedia.com. Thanks for listening and we will see you next week.
