This week, Michael is joined by Ben Tribbett, Founder of Pocket Aces Consulting, and former state Delegate David Ramadan to break down the political ads for Virginia races in the upcoming election. What are the messages that candidates are putting out, and how effective will they be?

Episode Transcript

Michael Pope  

I'm Michael Pope, and this is Pod Virginia. A podcast that has our eye on the hottest political ads of the year. It's time for an episode of Adwatch with the dynamic duo of Virginia politics. We're joined by the founder of Pocket Aces Consulting, he is the Sith Lord of Virginia politics, Ben Tribbett, thanks for joining us.

Ben Tribbett  

Hey, thanks for having me, Michael.

Michael Pope  

We're also joined by a former Republican member of the House of Delegates from Loudon. He's now an academic at George Mason University's Schar school. Dr. David Ramadan, thanks for joining us.

David Ramadan  

Great to be back.

Michael Pope  

This is going to be a fun episode. I appreciate both of you coming on. We're going to start with the most expensive race on the ballot this year: the seventh congressional District in Northern Virginia. We've seen more than $4 million spent for Democrat Eugene Vindman and 2.5 million dollars in spending for Republican Derek Anderson. Democrats are dominating the airwaves here, outspending Republicans by a 2:1 margin. Check out this ad from VoteVets.

VoteVets, Ad for Eugene Vindman 

Central Virginians have sacrificed more than our fair share in America's fights for freedom, like Eugene Vindman, who served 25 years in the army before putting it all on the line to stop Donald Trump. The Washington Post endorses Vindman as an impressive choice for Congress. He'll take on MAGA to protect abortion rights and make sure the democracy that started right here in Virginia stands strong for generations to come. Vindman, the right choice for Congress. Vote Vets is responsible for the content of this advertising. 

Michael Pope  

Stands strong. Interesting that they're leaning into the Washington Post endorsement. Obviously a badge of honor for a lot of people, although maybe not everybody. Ben Tribbett, is this an approach that's going to work?

Ben Tribbett  

I think that the challenge for the Vidman campaign has always been they can't reach across to get Republican votes. They're going to need Kamala Harris to carry the District, which I think she's on track to do. He needs to hold all of the Democratic voters. When you're talking about what's in that ad, that's hitting all the points of trying to get the Kamala Harris voters to vote for a Democratic Congressman with her. 

Michael Pope  

David Ramadan, what did you make of that ad? Leaning into patriotism and talking about the Washington Post endorsement. This is a Vote Vets ad. Here. Is this going to appeal to voters in Northern Virginia? 

David Ramadan  

Vindman parachuted into Virginia. He has no community ties, and therefore, Ben is right; he cannot get independent voters to vote for him. The only thing he can do is tout his national creds being in the military and the Washington Post endorsement. If I remember correctly, when I saw this on TV, when he mentioned Virginia, they had a shot of the Capitol on that TV, meaning the DC capital, not Jefferson's capital. Will it work? Yes, that District is likely going democratic, and it'll work. But in my opinion, not because of the ads.

Michael Pope  

The Republican in the race is Derek Anderson, who has a few ads introducing himself to voters by laying out his biography. That's some of the ads that he's got on the air, but, I want to focus our attention on this ad with Greene County Sheriff Stephen Smith.

Greene County Sheriff Stephen Smith, Ad for Derrick Anderson   

I'm Sheriff Steve Smith from Greene County. Joe Biden's open borders have turned Virginia into a border state. Fentanyl overdoses are way up, and illegal immigrants have been arrested for sex crimes against Virginians. I've seen it firsthand. We need strong leaders like Derrick Anderson, who are tough on illegal immigration. Derek put his life on the line to secure America. Elect him to Congress, he'll secure the border, finish the wall and keep our families safe. I'm Derek Anderson, and I approve this message. 

Michael Pope  

David Ramadan, I take it you think this ad might not be the best. Or what is your take on the approach of the Anderson campaign? Talking about their endorsement from Greene County Sheriff Stephen Smith. 

David Ramadan  

Securing the border in dealing with immigration from the guy who had borrowed a family for his ads. That's what we should be talking about. This is a disaster of a campaign and a disaster of a candidate. Even the ad is an ad that's not going to resonate because we don't have an illegal immigration problem in Virginia to the point that it makes a difference in elections. There are legal immigrants everywhere, but it's not a point; it's not an issue that'll make the difference in the Virginia elections. Who cares what the Greene County Sheriff says about Anderson when it's a guy who's borrowing his friend's family in order to portray that he's a family man in his other ads? You can't make this shit up.

Michael Pope  

I'm going to play my CBS fact check card and note that Greene County has about 3% of the share of the congressional District here. There are 15,000 votes in Greene County. Ben Tribbet, what do you make of this TV ad with Greene County Sheriff Stephen Smith?

Ben Tribbett  

Back to the point we started at: Derek Anderson, in order to win, has to win crossover voters. If you take this District and you break it into two pieces, you've got Prince William County, which makes up almost 40% of the District, where a lot of the Democratic voters are younger, they're more diverse, they're less likely to cross over for a Republican candidate the Congress. What he's trying to speak to is the rest of the District. I don't think it's particularly Greene County he's going after; it's the whole rural swath of that District, which makes up about a quarter to a 1/3 of the vote, depending on how much of Stafford and Spotsylvania you want to call rural. Those voters, the ones voting Democratic in those areas, are the people that Anderson is targeting. Trying to get the crossover vote from; that's why that ad is appearing that way. 

Michael Pope  

Moving over to the second most expensive race in Virginia, the second congressional District in Virginia Beach. Once again, Democrats are outspending Republicans in the ad wars. Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal

 has already had about $3.8 million spent on the airwaves. Check out this ad titled "Insults."

 "Insults," ad for Missy Cotter Smasal's

Jen Kiggan stands with her MAGA teammates as they disrespect the military, attacking military women's abortion rights. When they insult fallen soldiers and sailors, Kiggan still stands with them. When her MAGA teammate says entering the military is a waste, that it's throwing your life away. Throwing your life away. Kiggan's votes with them to cut veterans benefits. I'm Missy Cotter Smasal. People who insult our military or take our freedoms will never be my teammates, and that's why I approve of this message. 

Michael Pope  

Virginia Beach is a military town, and this ad is clearly aimed at military voters. Ben Tribbett, is this going to work?

Ben Tribbett  

I think this is uphill. Look when you take the advertising numbers in these areas. You've got to remember Hampton Roads is a much cheaper media market than Northern Virginia. When Hampton Roads spending is close to Northern Virginia numbers, that means people are seeing probably four to five times the number of ads per dollar spent as they're seeing in Northern Virginia. Missy and Jen Kiggans have been on the air since late this summer. It's different from the seventh district race in that way. The ads actually tell a story. When I hear that ad, I hear that Missy is behind and needs to make up those.

Michael Pope  

David Ramadan, what do you make of this ad here? Leaning into attracting military voters in Virginia Beach.

David Ramadan  

Yeah, concur. I was in Virginia Beach for the last four days, and I saw an absurd amount of ads on the local channels. Ben is absolutely correct. He's also correct that she's behind, probably quite a bit behind. I noticed the ad didn't talk about Jen Kiggins and didn't talk about herself either. This was all about Marjorie Taylor Greene; when it's hard to attack the candidate herself, you try to tie her to others. That's what's happening here. Kiggins has a good following in that District; she represented it as a State Senator. Then won her first race. As an incumbent, she's got the advantage. The challenger is trying to tie her to an unfriendly, unpopular figure: Marjorie Taylor Greene. That's more of an attack ad than it is an informational ad, I'm not sure it's going to work.

Michael Pope  

The Republican in this race is incumbent Congresswoman Jen Kiggans. She released a new ad this week featuring her at a drive-through window with a $20 bill.

Drive-through ad for Jen Kiggans 

I remember when $20 bucks fed the whole family with change to spare. But today, even the drive-through costs a small fortune. Biden and Harris spent billions, and now, record inflation means families pay more and get less. As a mom, I know every penny counts. I'm on a mission to slash wasteful spending and rollback prices for families. I'm Jen Kiggans, and I approve this message because if families are pinching pennies, then Washington can too.

Michael Pope  

If families are pinching pennies, Washington can too. David Ramadan, will Congresswoman Kiggans be able to hold on to this congressional seat by running against the economy?

David Ramadan  

Too cute for comfort of an ad. Kiggans is not old enough to remember when $20 could feed an entire family. Yes, she is going to hold on to the seat. But she's going to hold onto the seat because that's where the populace is going. And because of her background; she served in the Senate, and she's the incumbent. It's a cute ad when you look at it, but if you get a look at it, pinching pennies, most people in Virginia Beach are not pinching pennies. If the Neptune festival this past weekend was any indication, there were thousands of people who were just spending money on $10 lemonade and $15 funnel cakes. No, it's not going to be the pinch pennies ad that gets the job, but she is going to hold on to the seat.

Michael Pope  

Well, fun fact: Ben Tribbett is joining us from his cell phone, and he's at a drive-through window. Ben Tribbett, I don't know how much $20 is going to get you there, but what do you make of this ad?

David Ramadan  

He eats plain hamburgers, so he'd be good. 

Ben Tribbett  

I'm actually at Green Birds Deli at the New York, New York Casino in Las Vegas, so not in a drive-through window. I actually have to disagree with David on this; I love this ad. The number one issue that's coming back in all the polling is the cost of living and inflation. How much of that is at people's financial needs versus how much is their feeling about the economy is up for debate. But there's no question this has been the top-performing issue this entire year. Republican or Democratic, everyone in the country is trying to get on the right side of this. You're seeing the presidential campaign talk a lot about it. I thought this was a cute way to present it, and I thought that the ad was one of the better ones.

David Ramadan  

We agreed on the cuteness. I just don't agree on the effectiveness.

Ben Tribbett  

Yeah, if you've seen some of these focus groups this year, and I don't think it's a real issue. I think it's a feeling and how people feel. But this pops up in every single focus group. People want to hear from the candidates; they want to hear about inflation and the cost of food, groceries, and cars. That's what people are talking about.

David Ramadan  

$15 funnel cakes and $10 lemonades in her District.

Michael Pope  

Next up is the election for the United States Senate. Democrats have spent about $2.5 million on incumbent Senator Kaine, compared to only $6,000 that Republicans have spent on this race. There is a huge spending disparity on the airwaves. Check out this digital ad from the Kaine campaign titled "Not Podunk." 

"Not Podunk," ad for Tim Kaine 

As your Senator, I listen to you and stand up for you. My opponent won't. 'I called that Staunton newspaper Podunk.' Staunton isn't Podunk. We honeymooned here. 'To drive six and a half hours down to Abingdon, to answer a question. It's just redonkulous'. Abingdon isn't ridiculous. My wife's aunt lived here. Elitists who won't show up for you will never stand up for you. I stand up for all Virginians, and I always will. 

Michael Pope  

Staunton is not Podunk, and Abingdon is not Redonkulous. David Ramadan, is that a message that's going to work?

David Ramadan  

He knocked it out of the ballpark. His opponent is a horrible candidate. He was a horrible candidate when he ran for Congress, for the House of Representatives. He's been a horrible candidate running for the Senate. He kept saying stupid stuff, such as Staunton is a podunk town and a Podunk newspaper. He doubled down on it. This was perfect to hit him on. I think the ad will be effective, especially in that part of the Commonwealth where Tim is popular. He plays bluegrass music, goes down there, and hangs out with people. He's seen as a friendly US Senator.

Michael Pope  

Ben Tribbett, is this the Podunk election or the redonkulous election?

Ben Tribbett  

I love this ad. Obviously, Tim Kaine was going to win in a landslide from the start. What a great job his team did with research and following Cao around. Look at all the different races in the Commonwealth this year; Tim Kaine has been the most effective in finding specific things that Hung Cao has said and holding him accountable for them. You have to wonder, in the seventh District, when you have the Vindman race with Derek Anderson. Vindman knew nothing about Virginia when he first started running; the fact that Derek Anderson didn't get some of that on tape and isn't using that in the campaign shows why Derek Anderson's not ready for prime time. By the time Vindam got to the general election, he wasn't making those kind of errors. Tim Kaine's staff was on this in the Spring. This is the kind of campaign that you look at and say, this is the exact model campaign of how you win an election by 20 points.

David Ramadan  

And to not take anything for granted. He's working at it; he's working it like he's behind, and he's not. He's gonna win by a landslide. He and his team are working and working it hard all across the Commonwealth.

Michael Pope  

All right. Hung Cao is struggling to keep up and has only spent $6,000 on political ads so far. Check out this ad from the Cao campaign, titled "Endorsed by Trump." Senate

"Endorsed by Trump," ad for Hung Cao 

The candidate who's going to win from Virginia is Hung Cao. We escaped from Vietnam days before Saigon fell to the communists. America saved my life with 25 years of service in Navy special operations and combat in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia. We need real fighters, not politicians. We must refuse to be intimidated. We must be fearless. I'm Hung Cao, I'm running for Senate, and I approve this message, because I'm not done fighting for us. 

Michael Pope  

He's not done fighting. Ben Tribbett, is that a message that's going to beat Tim Kaine? 

Ben Tribbett  

No. When you hear that ad, the first thing that comes to my mind is he's losing so many Trump voters. Voters who are voting for Trump and Kaine. He has to point out that endorsement because he's trying to bring people home. The fact that Trump is unlikely to carry the state to begin with makes this even more uphill. It'd be one thing if Trump was going to carry Virginia, and you just had to bring the Trump voters home. But Cao is trying to bring the Trump voters home that he's losing while not speaking to any of the voters he actually needs to win over. This is one of those races where everything has gone right for Tim Kaine, and everything's gone wrong for Cao. Kaine is going to win this in a landslide because of it.

Michael Pope  

David Ramadan, what did you make of this ad? This ad might have been from the primary election when he was trying to become the candidate. I believe he did win every city and every county. He did well in the Republican primary. It doesn't seem like he's doing a lot of ad spending right now. $6,000 so far? That is the lowest number on our list of campaigns that we're talking about. What do you make of that?

David Ramadan  

He doesn't have any money to run the new ad. That's why he's using one from the primaries. Put that aside. What a waste of talent. This is a really good story. It is the story of an immigrant who came here and followed the American dream, served in the military, and has a great success story. Yet he went out and sold his soul to MAGA and the Trump world, all so that he could be a candidate. He was a horrible candidate when he ran for Congress. Now, he's running for the Senate and is still a horrible candidate. He's somebody who has zero political astuteness. This is the new norm; you parachute in, knowing nothing about politics, but everybody wants to be in Congress or in the Senate. The worst part is you lose your first campaign. Instead of running for the same seat again, to try again and to get better. They run for a bigger seat, thinking that they're qualified for the larger seat or the wider seat simply because they lost the first one. There's no common sense, especially in that MAGA world. This is a perfect example of a good immigration story, a great all American story of a person who becomes a joke. I don't even know why Tim is debating him.

Michael Pope  

Ben Tribbett, do you have anything to add on top of that?

Ben Tribbett  

When Hung Cao is putting out an ad from the primary, and it's an ad from the primary, that tells you he doesn't have the money to cut a new production budget to make a new ad. The race is over. 

Michael Pope  

To be clear for our listeners, I chose that ad from the Hung Cao YouTube page. It's several months old. The origin of this ad is from the primary. I'm not sure what ad he has up with the $6,000 in campaign spending. I don't exactly know what ad that is, but to be clear, that's the reason we played that ad—because it's the one I found on his YouTube page. 

Ben Tribbett  

Well, Michael, I would assume it's the same one because an ad costs at least $15,000 to produce. If he's only spending $6,000, he's not producing a new ad.

Michael Pope  

I have one more topic that I want to ask you both about, and I really appreciate you coming on Pod Virginia for an episode of Adwatch. Ben Tribbett, I'm going to start with you. What ads are you not seeing that you should be seeing? 

Ben Tribbett  

This year in Northern Virginia, we're not seeing presidential ads because Virginia is no longer considered a swing state. I would start with that. Are you asking me, Michael, which candidates whose ads I'm not seeing? Or is it what topics are not being covered? 

Michael Pope  

If you were running the campaign for all of the candidates, which candidates would you advise them to be on the air? What kind of messages would you advise them to have?

Ben Tribbett  

I'd tell all of them to be on the air if they have money because ads are the only thing that moves elections at this point. When you get into a presidential election, and you get a very high turnout, you reach a lot of voters who don't have as strong of a partisan lean. Yet, if you look at the statistics, there's less crossover in a presidential year than in most years. Because they don't have a strong lean, they also don't get their information very many places. They end up coming home naturally. These ads are your one opportunity to speak to a broad audience and try to capture some of those people and cross them over. Then, to the candidates that are running ads that could win crossover support. They're doing the things that they need to do to go win an election, to those candidates that you hear talking to their base. It's now October; those are people who are not going to win or are trying to hang on in a district where they're way underperforming.

Michael Pope  

David Ramadan, same question for you. Suppose you are in charge of these campaigns or advising them; which of these candidates would you advise to be on the air? What messages should they have on the air? 

David Ramadan  

I agree, everybody should be advertising, depending on their budget. Suppose they have the budget for being on the air, especially in congressional and statewide elections. In that case, it's the most effective way to reach voters. If they have the money, they should be doing it. They should be doing messages that reach people and cross over the fear crosses over the BS. The voter is more intelligent than we give them credit for kitchen table issues, not fear issues. When you're talking about the border. Sure, the border is an issue for many people, but for many in the middle, it's not. A good ad, by the way, that we didn't talk about is Suha Subramaniam's ad that he put on air. Cute ad with his two kids. He talked in it; it was shoot from being at the playground to being in his Senate office and being at home with the kids. He talked about his accomplishments. He talked about how he stopped an increase in tolls on the Greenway. That ad, if you watch it, and you don't know if it was from a Democrat or a Republican, and you're a middle-of-the-road voter that's going to vote one way or another. Yeah, you'll split the ticket and you'll vote for him. By the way, he's a Democrat.

Ben Tribbett  

An absolutely great ad. Great ad. 

Michael Pope  

I was about to ask you. What's your impression of that Suhas Subramanyam ad that David Ramadan was talking about? 

Ben Tribbett  

He nails it. Again, the message of the year is people's economic situation. You have to understand that the 10th District, which is the wealthiest county in the country, the 10th District is the wealthiest or at least one of the wealthiest congressional districts in the country. They're still talking about pocketbook issues. This is the message of the year. People want to hear about how this affects their pocketbook and, I think this ad nailed it.

Michael Pope  

This has been a fun episode of AdWatch. I'm glad that we could get Ben Tribbett to join us from Las Vegas and David Ramadan in Northern Virginia. Thanks for coming on Pod Virginia.

Ben Tribbett  

Thanks Michael.

David Ramadan  

Happy to! See you again next time.