Budget Compromise, Protest Crackdowns, and Lawmaker Investments
IN THE NEWS:
Virginia's budget is still a work-in-progress, but a deal was announced late last week--there's likely to be no RGGI, no ERIC, and no tax increases, but pay raises for Virginia teachers and state employees.
Police officers in riot gear cracked down on student protestors at the University of Virginia last week, pushing students on the ground and using pepper sprays. More than 2300 have been arrested in protests nationwide so far, and support for Palestinians doesn't seem to be decreasing.
What kinds of investments do members of the General Assembly make? The folks at VPAP made a chart--Democrats are likely to invest in Microsoft, Verizon, and Johnson & Johnson, while Republicans tend to be invested in Dominion, Tesla, and Amazon.
At the Watercooler:
Will Trump actually try to contest Virginia, or is his stated plan a head-fake?
The race in the 5th Congressional District between Bob Goode and John McGuire--which type of leader do Virginia Republicans want?
Episode Transcript
Lauren Burke
I'm Lauren Burke.
Jeff Ryer
And I'm Jeff Ryer.
Lauren Burke
And this is Pod Virginia. A podcast that's getting ready for the special session this week.
Jeff Ryer
Yes, and because Michael's not here this week, we are going to change the name of the show for the third time. We're now officially going to call it Caitlyn, which is what it should have been originally when it was Transition Virginia. No, this is Pod Virginia.
Lauren Burke
Okay, let's get to the news.
Better late than never, Virginia's budget is still a work in progress. The Democrats, who control the General Assembly, and Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin have been working on a compromise; a deal was announced late last week.
Jeff Ryer
Yeah. It appears the compromise matches somewhat of what the governor wanted and somewhat of what the Democrats wanted, which is what compromises do. So, as a result, it looks like there'll be no RGGI, which is the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. There will be no tax increases, but there will be a 3% pay raise for both teachers and state employees. So it appears that everybody is at least feigning happiness, whether they are or not.
Lauren Burke
Yeah. Democrats are obviously pressing for RGGI and ERIC -- the Electronic Registration Information Center, which is related to voting. It is said to be nonpartisan, but Republicans around the country have thrown ERIC out. As we tape this, we don't know whether or not it's in or out. The members who I've texted are saying they won't actually see the budget until this weekend, so we'll see what happens with that. The other big thing out there was skill games. I hear it got thrown out. The governor's modifications on that bill sort of throw it out anyway. So maybe that was just; we don't really want to rework this entire thing, type of deal. But it does seem interesting they were able to have as many compromises as they did, and at the deadline. I didn't think we were going to end up in a situation where there's a shutdown, but it's good they did get to a deal.
Jeff Ryer
Yeah, it is. Regarding the skills game, I thought Delegate Krizek had the right idea when the General Assembly was busy ditching the governor's amendments to the bill. He pointed out that if they had approved several of them, he was likely to sign one of the bills. And it doesn't look likely he's going to sign the bill as is. But I guess we won't know for certain until the deadline passes, which I think is the end of this week.
Lauren Burke
Right, exactly. What do you think about the governor's general legacy? It's hard to tell without seeing the entire budget, which we'll see this week. But just in general, what do you think?
Jeff Ryer
Governors that face General Assemblies of the other party frequently have legacies that consist of being able to stop bad things more than being able to advance good ones, or at least ones that are on their agenda. Certainly, Tim Kaine dealt with that and had a somewhat limited legacy. I don't know what this governor has up his sleeve. Obviously, the failure of the stadium proposal was a big hit for him. But he does seem to be pivoting heavily towards large economic development projects outside of that, and I think a lot of his legacy will be that.
Lauren Burke
Yeah. Obviously, he did get a win with Lego. And there was that Google agreement a few weeks ago, which looks pretty good, actually.
Jeff Ryer
Yeah.
Lauren Burke
Would you would you assign a winner? It's so hard to know, obviously, without the details of the budget. But if you had to guess what you've already heard, which is probably not a whole lot because the news of the deal on the budget just broke. Who's likely to win? I see a few players who do not comment much, like Reid, Deeds, and Senator Lucas, who are kind of quiet. But if you had to assign a winner, if you had to guess in that horse race, what would you say?
Jeff Ryer
I'd give a slight edge to the governor in this situation. No RGGI in the budget and no tax increases. Those were really the big priorities as far as what was left after the session. So, I'd give a slight edge to the to the governor on a victory. But I'd also give a victory to reality. When you've got a divided government, you're going to end up with limited results. And while this is probably a very good budget for the Commonwealth, and it keeps things open at the same time, there's not a lot of movement in either direction.
Lauren Burke
Yeah, I agree with that; they do look like they compromised. Of course, that's what has to happen, obviously, in a divided government.
All right, let's move on to our next story. Student protests: police officers in riot gear moved in on student protesters at the University of Virginia last week, pushing some students to the ground and using pepper spray on others. That, of course, follows arrest at the University of Mary Washington and Virginia Commonwealth University.
Jeff Ryer
According to a tally from our friends at the Washington Post, more than 2,300 people have been arrested on campuses across the country so far. And I'm sure that number continues to rise, judging from the nightly news reports.
Lauren Burke
Absolutely. And support for Palestinians doesn't seem to be showing any signs of going away anytime soon. One of the aspects of this situation is that there seems to be a disconnect in what we're seeing in the polling, with regard to polling heavily indicating that people want a ceasefire. People in the United States want a ceasefire. Frankly, I think the mainstream media isn't reflecting what's in the polling. What's seen in a lot of these protests, as you probably know, Jeff, the leadership at the University of Virginia, last week had a virtual town hall, which was run mostly by the President of UVA, James Ryan. They talked about the First Amendment; they talked about the decisions being made in breaking up what most people viewed as a pretty peaceful protest. They weren't really doing anything other than sort of standing around. It was intense. But they did bring out some sort of plywood, etc, and so on. President Ryan also mentioned that was the reason they had the state police go in. But what do you think generally of the look of this entire situation?
Jeff Ryer
I think it's probably a good look for the Administration. It's definitely a smart look for the colleges. The fact of the matter is that a lot of these protests, due to a lot of outsiders, look like some very privileged people whining. We're getting a lot of news accounts indicating requests for vegan meals and special accommodations. But also, the challenge is that, in many of the protests, I don't know if this has really happened in Virginia because the reporting on it is somewhat scant. However, a lot of the protests involved not just students at the university but also people who came in from outside. And whenever that happens, a university is going to want to get a hold of the situation right away. I think in this state, like many states with a Republican governor, they're going to lock down very quickly. Republicans do have a long memory, and S. I. Hayakawa was a hero for a lot of Republicans. And that's a reference that the listeners will have to look up before I have to go into a long dissertation on who S. I. Hayakawa was. But I think so far, there's been support for it. Also, the proximity of these protests to graduation time and exams seems a bit much as far as colleges just trying to function and keep day-to-day activities going. But I think the primary reason for shutting them down as quickly as possible is what they've seen happen at other schools, where Jewish students were actually being intimidated, and things got really out of hand.
Lauren Burke
Yeah. I think that the messaging around any students being intimidated and Jewish students being intimidated. I actually was in New York at Columbia and saw up close some of those students talking to the media. Relaying the experiences that they were having, that they should not have been having on campus, which is unacceptable and a Title VI violation, and it's just unacceptable. I do think the general politics of it feels like what happens when you have the power of money in politics, the power of the donor network, and the impact that has on schools like UVA. Of course, UVA has a First Amendment Institute at the law school, and it has the Karsh Institute of Democracy. We're talking about the First Amendment, and then all of a sudden, the students are exercising their First Amendment right at that school, and that is shut down by the state police; I think that's a bad look. I also think it's a bad look in the wake of what happened in August of 2017. When you have a bunch of folks that are literal Neo Nazis marching through the campus with lit torches, and nobody is saying anything in terms of riot gear, or let's shut that down. Having no idea what their intentions were. They're coming in with lit torches, and who knew what that was going to lead to, and of course, chanting anti-semitic slogans on top of that. However, I think it was interesting because only one person in the group who was on the Zoom call with President Ryan had actually been there in 2017. President Sullivan was president of UVA in 2017, and not President Ryan. It's sort of an ironic thing to watch because, on the one hand, we're talking about the Constitution, and typically conservatives are big fans of the Constitution. Then, when it comes to this particular issue, it's sort of like, No, we actually don't want to hear people talk about devastation from Israel. We don't really want to hear that conversation, and we sure as heck don't want to answer the question about why 35,000 people are dead. I think it's a problem because, for young people, this is a huge issue. I think anybody, regardless of what you feel about either side, think it's problematic when 35,000 people are dead, even sitting here knowing that the Government of Israel, of course, had the right to react to October 7th, 2023, in a very strong way and react they did. It was a terrorist attack. It was a terrible terrorist attack. But wow. Now, we're about five or six months down the road. And those numbers are undeniable, particularly since a lot of that 35,000 dead are women and children.
Jeff Ryer
I'm going to dispute the numbers. Those are Hamas estimates and numbers. They don't jive with what the IDF indicates are the actual casualties. I think Hamas has been as skillful as it always is in winning the propaganda war. They have a tremendous amount of support in the media, certainly from the BBC and NPR in this country. I think there is a strong anti-Israeli bias in popular media. And I think Israel has been remarkably restrained in its response. In fact, the civilian casualties to combat and casualties in this particular situation, according to the Israeli government, have been held to a ratio that's been held to 1.5, which is remarkably low. It's usually up to around 9 or 10 civilians to combat casualties in situations like this. I think the Israeli government has performed remarkably well with a tremendous amount of restraint and gets zero credit for it. I have a very different perspective on this. I think the Israelis are not just justified, but I think they’ve been much more measured than our country has been in similar situations. I think the Biden administration's response has been chaotic and uneven, as demonstrated by the president's latest missive that he won't give precision weaponry to the Israelis if they decide to go into Rafa. Of course, precision weaponry is exactly what prevents civilian casualties. It limits civilian casualties. So it makes no sense.
Lauren Burke
Yeah, I'm gonna stick with Don Beyer on this one. And with Reuters and the Associated Press, with regard to the numbers of casualties, and with the photography we're seeing of mass graves, in terms of 35,000. When I say stick with Don Beyer, Congressman Don Beyer had been supporting this policy the whole time. Then he voted against the 26 billion a few weeks ago, interestingly enough joining Republican Bob Good. It was an interesting break in terms of ideological considerations on that vote, for different reasons, of course. However, I have a sense that Biden and the Biden administration see this moment as a PR nuisance rather than a human rights question. It's funny to me to hear you say there's a bias against Israel in the media or against them in terms of what we see reported. Because MSNBC, which, of course, cannot be confused with any sort of conservative-leaning platform, sort of dismantled one of their anchors, I think, based on his views on this topic. It's not as if you can sit there and criticize one side for long and be able to hold a job. I think when we deal with facts, it's hard. I do not even see the IDF or Prime Minister Netanyahu having too much of an argument about the casualty numbers, which are imbalanced right now. I do think it's a situation where we put so much money, so much of the tax money from the people of the United States, into this particular country that there should be some say in it. One of the things that Congressman Beyer brought up was not just the World Central Kitchen incident, but the fact that we're giving billions of dollars in tax money, and then we're expected, the Congress is expected, apparently, not to have a real say in what that tax money is used for. I really don't care what location in this world we're talking about; that should never be the case for American taxpayers. Our representatives should have a say in where our money is going.
Jeff Ryer
But they do, and the fact of the matter is that Congress did vote to send this weaponry to them. It didn't vote to send it to them only if they use it for this or only if they use it for that. Israel is our strongest ally in the region and probably our strongest ally in the world. The fact of the matter is that this Administration has been constantly berating the Israelis, who are in an impossible situation. They are surrounded by enemies on all sides. What choice do they have? They had to watch as October 7th happened, which was, as far as a proportion of the population, far more severe than what happened to us on 9/11 and, frankly, far more gruesome. Frankly, what choice do they have? We voted to send them money. And right now, there were Republican congressmen who were looking at articles of impeachment because of Biden's recent comment on holding off the precision weaponry. Again, a decision that makes no sense. And I cannot disagree strongly with you enough about the 35,000. That is Hamas numbers and Hamas propaganda. And why are these protests being shut down? Well, because in a lot of these cases, you are seeing students backing Hamas. We don't really go for that in this country as far as backing terrorist organizations. And as a result, I think there's been an appropriate response domestically. I could not disagree more with the Biden administration's policy. Israel needs those precision weapons; they need to take care of Rafa, and they need to win if Hamas is allowed to remain in control at the end of this. Israel will be in constant danger of future October 7th.
Lauren Burke
What exactly has Joe Biden not done for Israel in this situation?
Jeff Ryer
He's decided to do moral equivalency as far as the situation with the Palestinians. In my mind, there is no moral equivalency. His most recent decision is that he's going to hold back on the precision weaponry that's been approved by Congress and voted on by Congress if the Israelis go into Rafah. He has berated the Netanyahu administration from the outset, as though Netanyahu is somehow an outlier in Israel. Netanyahu, whose opponents are backing this policy, the war cabinet is extremely united. I think the Biden administration is handling this appallingly. I'm looking forward to Israel continuing; as Netanyahu said, if Israel needs to go at it alone, Israel will go alone. And they have certainly faced similar circumstances in the past. But Joe Biden has demonstrated he's a no. I realize that this will be taken by some as a compliment to him, but it's not meant to be, but he's no Richard Nixon. Who made sure that Israel had exactly what they needed during the Yom Kippur War and moved heaven and earth to make sure they got it.
Lauren Burke
Okay, well, let's move on to our next story.
Wealthy lawmakers: what kinds of investments do members of the General Assembly make?
Jeff Ryer
Thanks to the wonderful people at VPAP, the Virginia Public Access Project, we now have a better idea. Last week, they took disclosure data and made a handy chart. I love the charts at VPAP; they are very good.
Lauren Burke
The charts are extremely good. Democrats are more likely to own shares in Microsoft, Verizon, and Johnson & Johnson
Jeff Ryer
While Republicans are more likely to own surprise, Dominion, Tesla, and Amazon.
Lauren Burke
I'm shocked when you think about the wealthy lawmaker question. This comes up a lot on the federal level. In Virginia, because it is a part-time legislature, most people who are around these members know there's nothing part-time about this. It's a full-time legislature. It's called part-time and paid like nothing. I wouldn't even say the salary is a part-time salary, $16,000 is sort of a joke. In a weird way, wealthy people in government can sometimes be good because you end up with someone who can't be bought. They can't be easily influenced by big money because they already have big money; we can think about the Kennedys, or FDR, or Glenn Youngkin is another person. I don't think he can really be bought by them. Certainly, he can be influenced by money, like any other elected official, but I think it's more difficult when somebody's wealth. On the other hand, it's good to have people around who make decisions for folks who are mostly blue-collar in the Commonwealth of Virginia. You look at places like Arlington, where the average home price is $800,000, and this gets to be a bit of a challenge. But anyway, what do you think?
Jeff Ryer
First of all, having wealthy people involved in legislative affairs and in government affairs is exactly how the founders envisioned things to be. If you look back, they believed that people would go to Congress into other legislative bodies when they were already successful, when they were already pillars of their community. They always envisioned that would be the case. And with good reason. George Washington was, by most accounts, the wealthiest man in the colonies; he was extremely successful, as were most of our other founders. So part of it is that you're absolutely correct, though you touched on one aspect of this, which I think is critical as to why we ended up with a decent number of wealthy people in the General Assembly. I would say it's the salary. Considering the sacrifices they make, $18,000 a year for a State Senator and $17,000 for a member of the House of Delegates is incredibly low, even if it were a part-time job at this point. These are salaries that have not changed since the last century. They've been in exactly the same place since the Wilder administration. And that's a bit of a challenge. Now, mind you, they can mitigate it. They do get an office expense account and a variety of other things. Of course, they get per diems when they show up. But still, it's not enough to live on. It's still part-time compensation. And it's still inadequate. However, the political challenge is that neither party wants to jump at it because raising legislative salaries is such a hot-button and successful campaign issue.
Lauren Burke
Yeah, it's political poison. It's political poison to vote for your salary to go up.
Jeff Ryer
Yeah, no question. It's one of the great conundrums for Virginia. We have consistently had a real mix, though, in the General Assembly. I will say, the one thing that it has brought in, whether it's people of means or people with less than means, the General Assembly, by and large, is a mix; it may not be entirely reflective of the Commonwealth, I don't think we have quotas for elected officials. But you still get a pretty good cross-section.
Lauren Burke
I think it's a pretty good cross-section. We definitely have a number of very wealthy members; there is no doubt about that. Also, what you're seeing is that the expense of running for office is going through the roof. I couldn't believe it. It was probably three cycles ago that we started seeing these million-dollar House of Delegates races. You've got to be kidding me. That has made it even more difficult. It's not to say all that money comes from your bank account, but it does empower interest groups on the right and left, particularly in the Commonwealth, where we have no limits on donations. Which is amazing to me. No limits on campaign donations. The question of whether or not we should be taking stock tips from elected officials makes me think about Abigail Spanberger and her obsession with the legislation she was bringing forward on the federal level with regard to stock. I just have to say, I have no idea why anybody; I'm not saying elected officials should have some advantage when it comes to stock trades. But it just seems to be sort of an odd thing to focus on, in particular.
Jeff Ryer
There have been questionable examples that have occurred in the US House of Representatives. Congresswoman Spanberger tried to bring that forward when the Democrats were in the majority. And Speaker Pelosi, for whatever reason, did the kibosh on that. But I don't think, considering these investments, we have to worry too much about our legislators getting specific insight information. It looks like they're just lining up behind the solid players, by and large. There doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation here. If you're in Microsoft, Verizon, Johnson &Johnson, Dominion, Tesla, and Amazon, these are not what we would call daring investments.
Lauren Burke
Yeah, definitely not.
Jeff Ryer
By any stretch of the imagination. The Tesla boys on the Republican side are probably taking some hits lately, but the others are doing just fine. I'm sure Tesla will rebound; it seems to have a The Perils of Pauline sort of
Lauren Burke
Yeah.
Jeff Ryer
With their stock, it does help to dissuade the idea that Republicans are anti-EVs. I like that we're not anti-EV. We're anti-EV mandates; there's a difference. That's why we have Republicans investing in Tesla and the fact that you can do pretty well off that stock. You people have been doing pretty well off that stock, but not so much lately.
Lauren Burke
Yeah, lately, it's been a little bit rough.
Jeff Ryer
A little bit rough as of late.
Lauren Burke
Alright, let's take a break. When we come back, we'll play a round of trivia and head over to the water cooler.
Last week, we asked you what year Virginia first adopted a state flag.
Jeff Ryer
And it's probably later than you think.
Lauren Burke
The answer is April of 1861.
Jeff Ryer
Amazingly, Eugene Vindman didn't chime in with an answer.
Lauren Burke
No, in fact, nobody got the right answer this week.
Jeff Ryer
From what I understand, nobody tried. There's a question of whether or not the question was too hard. But come on, people get out your Wikipedia, cheat. It's not like Michaels giving away prizes. I've urged him at least to send people a coupon for a Snickers bar or some $5 gift card to your local Wawa.
Lauren Burke
Hey, I agree with that, actually. And I'm shocked nobody got the answer, because we've got some real smart Virginians out there who get the answer, like every week. Okay, we'll do an easier trivia question this week.
Which two presidential elections did Virginia not participate in?
Jeff Ryer
Okay, this question is way too easy. There ought to be tons and tons of people responding to this one. Assuming there are people listening that aren't related to Michael.
Lauren Burke
I think that will have many responses. If you think you know the answer, hit us up on social media; you might even win a prize if we change the rules for that. Okay, let's head over to the water cooler. Jeff, what's the latest you've heard around the water cooler?
Jeff Ryer
The big question, and it came out of the big event at Mar-A-Lago the weekend before last, was the speculation that Trump would actually campaign in and contest Virginia. My question on this is whether it's real or a head fake, as has been suggested in the media. In fact, when they mentioned Virginia, they mentioned Virginia and Minnesota as two states they'd like to put into play. Certainly, having a presidential campaign actively competing in Virginia once again would be a big deal for us. Also a very big deal for our local television stations and cable systems, who are the ones who profit most when a campaign comes to town. But it's difficult to say with any certainty whether this was sincere or head fake. The challenge for any Republican candidate competing in Virginia is that it's a state that if they're winning it, they've probably already won it if they ended up carrying it. It's kind of an extra for the Democrats at this point; Florida would probably be an extra for the Democrats. If they were winning it, they would probably be running away with the election anyway. But also, is it an effort to tie up more resources from the other side? But the other side has plenty of resources. As we know, the Democratic campaign, as with any incumbent president, is pretty flush. The last time the Republican nominee for president outspent the Democratic was 1972; it's been a while. What do you think, Lauren? Do you think Virginia is in play?
Lauren Burke
I don't think so. Not for Donald Trump. I do think, obviously, Governor Youngkin proved it could be in play for the Republicans; he obviously proved that in 2021. But to me, the way that Glenn Youngkin ran his campaign was as this moderate figure, sort of the same way Bob McDonald did. If we look at recent history in Virginia, that is the type of Republican that does well. If you're running in this sort of moderate, kinder, gentler way of how you govern. The reality of all that may, of course, be something completely different. However, how the campaign was run, for the most part, was not this hard ideological way. Not the MAGA Republican style and flavor of republicanism that we're seeing from Donald Trump. We'll learn, and I'll talk more about this in my water cooler; we'll learn some lessons on June 18th, 2024, about the type of Republican that voters want to support. Obviously, primaries bring out the folks that vote no matter what. Regarding Trump contesting Virginia, I think Chris LaCivita was probably in this conversation. Obviously, he's been involved in Virginia politics and is one of Trump's top advisors. Maybe that's the reason this was in the news, or maybe they're trying to expand the map. I do think this 2024 presidential election is going to come down to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Jeff Ryer
Let me throw in another possibility about this that might make it seem more valid. Let's talk about ballot access for a second. What if Virginia ends up with RFK Jr., Jill Stein, Cornell West, and the libertarian nominee on the ballot, in addition to Trump and Biden? How much does that change the calculation? If ballot access is achieved by those candidacies?
Lauren Burke
I don't think it would matter that much. I think Cornel West gets less than 2%. Stein gets less than 4%. Maybe RFK gets 5%. In the end, what happens is that Joe Biden wins.
Jeff Ryer
By your estimation, 2 + 4 + 5 = 11, Biden's margin last time was 10. Wouldn't all of those candidacies tend to mix things up quite a bit in Virginia?
Lauren Burke
It's hard to understand who is voting. If you were making a rank choice, for example, and you picked Donald Trump first, who would be your second? Is it going to be RFK or Cornell? It's probably not gonna be Cornell as your second choice.
Jeff Ryer
It's not going to be Cornell. It would be Libertarian. If you don't go for Trump, you're probably going to the libertarian.
Lauren Burke
Maybe.
Jeff Ryer
You can actually see that in Republican precincts in suburban areas where the Libertarian candidate that year, ran their highest totals in strongly Republican areas.
Lauren Burke
Yeah. If that Libertarian candidate hadn't been on the ballot, we'd have had Governor Cuccinelli. That was a very interesting situation. I do think, generally speaking, the Republican Party in Virginia learned the lesson of stopping to run people like Corey Stewart. They stop running people like E. W. Jackson. When they learned that lesson, they won. They ran someone, at least from a symbolic and marketing standpoint, but again, that doesn't necessarily have to be the reality; I'm sure that most progressives say he's not moderate. I'm talking about the way that he ran the campaign, even with CRT sitting out there, which I think most folks on the left would not have considered a moderate position. But what I'm saying is when I went to Youngkin rallies, and I went to Youngkin rallies in and Chesterfield and the one in Alexandria. Because I'm not a believer in secondhand information, evidently, with the media that we have now, which is very partisan. I go and see for myself, and what I saw was a fairly moderate presentation, for the most part. I go to everybody's rallies, right, left, or whatever; I just want to see it for myself. So, at any rate, I will say that I don't know that in any way, shape, or form, Donald Trump is going to be able to match that level; again, we're going to see. I think we're going to get a little bit of a hint on June 18th.
Jeff Ryer
Okay, well, what's the latest you heard around the water cooler? It sounds to me that you got to fixation on June 18th. What are we thinking about?
Lauren Burke
I absolutely do have a fixation on June 18th. In particular, the race in the 5th Congressional District. The primary race between two Republicans, incumbent Bob Good and State Senator John McGuire. What this race, I think, comes down to is figuring out what we were just talking about: what type of Republican do Virginia Republicans like? It was a great example because Bob Good went ahead and endorsed Ron DeSantis for President. And got in big trouble with his party for doing that. John McGuire comes along and says, Look, I'm going to challenge you. I am a Trump supporter, and I am going to try to beat you based primarily on that issue. And I want to hear from you; you know more about Virginia Republicans than I do; what do you think is gonna happen in that situation?
Jeff Ryer
I don't know. I know the McGuire campaign last week, released a poll showing them significantly ahead. I know that the McGuire campaign has the resources necessary to run an effective primary campaign. I know the people who live there are already getting bombarded with ads. I also know, and I know this from personal experience, I have never met a more determined campaigner than John McGuire. He is an energizer bunny of a candidate. He goes everywhere, meets everyone, and talks to everyone. When he is engaged in a campaign, he is seriously engaged in a campaign. That bodes well for him. What bodes well for Bob Good is that he is the incumbent. And there's always a plus to being the incumbent. And he definitely has core support among, I would say, probably the party purists, those who are really devoted to a particular conservative agenda. He has some strong core support there. So, you know, it's a difficult thing. We haven't had a primary in this district, on the Republican side, in forever. Robert Hurt was nominated by convention. So this is something new, and this is a very interesting district. It starts down in Lynchburg and goes all the way up to Charlottesville and has almost all of Albemarle. There's a little teeny part of Albemarle that isn't in the district, but otherwise, it's quite a district. It also has part of Hanover. It borders on Henrico with Goochland. This is a this is a pretty disparate district.
Lauren Burke
That's another reason why I think it'll be interesting because the 5th is a big district that covers a lot of territory. It's not like Congressman Griffith's district, where you just have this red district. It's an interesting and diverse district, and Charlottesville is in there. It's gonna be interesting to see what the numbers are in the end, although obviously, we have to caveat that by saying that the primary voter is the most dedicated voter. It is not like the day of the presidential race in November, but it still should tell us a few things.
Jeff Ryer
You do get really core voters showing up in a primary and people that are that are devoted. I like to call them water bond voters. Because if your locality had a bond for a water treatment plant in the middle of August, these people would show up.
Lauren Burke
Right, exactly.
Jeff Ryer
They are the core, without a doubt. Well, that one's going to be interesting. And there's no question that people will be looking at the results for sometime to come, not just at what it tells us about that particular district, but what it tells us about the direction of the Republican Party in Virginia.
Lauren Burke
No, that's absolutely right. I do think there was a kind of strategic move to at least look more moderate. And I think that will continue if that's working. Because if you're winning, you typically do what it takes to win. Of course, there is the I don't want to say specter, but I guess we should say specter because the last time Trump was in office, it impacted many congressional races. This is how Congresswoman Wexton, Spanberger, and Luria got into office in 2018, shortly after Trump showed up. Will we have a duplication of that, who knows? If Biden stays in office, it will impact the governor's race in 2025. Usually, most would say that impacts the race in favor of the opposite party, which would be the Republicans. So that'll be interesting.
Jeff Ryer
It has, pretty consistently, for a long time. There's the exception of the McAuliffe victory, but that's pretty much about it. Otherwise, the out party has had very good years in Virginia.
Lauren Burke
That's absolutely correct.
Jeff Ryer
Well, we're coming up towards the end. I want to tell you Lauren, and this is just on a personal level. Just appearing as a co-host on this podcast is a major vindication for me; let me explain. I was on their initial episode, their inaugural podcast.
Lauren Burke
Wow.
Jeff Ryer
I was a guest on their inaugural podcast. Now, I don't know if it was the first one they let out to the public. But I know it was the first one they recorded. And I was really thrilled with my performance. I thought I was brilliant. Then, later on, they had me on again, and suddenly, there was this long deficit. It was like just a dearth. It was like I was Sinéad O'Connor on Saturday Night Live; they just wouldn't let me back. It was very upsetting. Apparently, I'm mean, that was the determination. No, this was not Michael's determination. This was the determination of his erstwhile co-host, Thomas, that I was too mean. Now, I prefer witty and acerbic. But, you know, this happens. Although we're only doing an audio recording, I really feel like I should be depicted on a white horse. The very idea that I would be called upon to be a co-host when Michael is unavailable is just huge.
Lauren Burke
Hey, I think that you should be on again. You've probably heard us talk a little bit on the podcast about the media and how hard it is sometimes to get Republicans talking in interviews. Particularly elected officials. As somebody who's been in the media for a long time and has seen the shift in the media from what I would say was a more objective stance to just naked ideological plays and takes on the right and left. I can understand why it was that Governor Youngkin, candidate Youngkin at the time, did not want to go on MSNBC. I was actually shocked that Terry McAuliffe went on WJLA, but he went on WJLA, which is a Sinclair station. But at any rate, I think it's a more interesting conversation sometimes. Even though I fervently disagree with you on things like the number of people dead in Gaza, for example. But I do like to hear the other side because I think it sharpens your thinking when you hear what you have to argue and debate with people you don't agree with. So, thanks for being on.
Jeff Ryer
The move to partisan broadcasting is kind of Back to the Future. It's very 19th-century.
Lauren Burke
That's right. It's yellow journalism.
Jeff Ryer
Yeah. It's very 19th century. We still have some of those newspapers around that refer to themselves as the blank Democrat, or there are a couple of versions of Republican ones. Those are publications that had their start in the 19th century when journalism was entirely partisan. There really weren't independent voices. I will say, however, that the recent NPR revelations have reinforced the reticence that a lot of Republicans have to not participate in mainstream media, interviews, etc. That was not good. Not a good story for encouraging Republicans to engage with a lot of media outlets.
Lauren Burke
The problem has become that the party is, unfortunately, being taken over by people who are not really centered in factual information. Then, the media is not necessarily centered on factual information. Somebody has to play the objective referee at some point. When they cover stories and don't care about who's right and left and care more about the facts of a situation, I think that's what's been lost. But you're right; your point is well taken. If you study anything about media history, you know that this is effectively how the media started; very partisan and owned by oligarchs. The media platforms were owned by rich people who had an agenda. And that agenda was reflected politically on their newspaper platform. So that's absolutely correct. There really is a Back to the Future element to that.
Jeff Ryer
You know, 2024 is Back to the Future. Two incumbents are facing off in a rematch, and journalism is segregated by partisan affiliation. Wow. Welcome to post-Civil War America, prior to the McKinley administration.
Lauren Burke
Gosh, and what's scary is it could be even more post-Civil War before this is over.
Jeff Ryer
One more thing before we go. This upcoming Saturday, May 18th, is Jamestown Day. And I know that everybody will want to celebrate Jamestown Day unless you're afraid of colonization, I guess. Anyway, I am thrilled about Jamestown day. It's one of the two reasons why I'm here, first that the English showed up here. And then the second reason of course, is General Grant won, which is how I got out of Massachusetts. So those are two things that I think are worth celebrating.
Lauren Burke
And that is it for this episode of Pod Virginia. Transcripts are on the website. Follow us on social media for more chatter on Virginia politics.
