Chaz Nuttycombe and Ben Tribbett: A Very Special Elections Episode
As we await results from Tuesday's snap election for Virginia's 4th Congressional District, Michael is joined by fan-favorite guest Chaz Nuttycombe of CNalysis and longtime Democratic consultant Ben Tribbett to discuss the various special elections happening in Virginia this coming year: from filling the late Congressman Don McEachin's seat to replacing Congresswoman-elect Jen Kiggans and former Delegate Mark Keam.
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
On this episode of Pod Virginia, special elections and more special elections, we consider the cascading effect of open seats.
Chaz Nuttycombe
I just think that it would be disrespectful to voters to leave them without representation for that ball.
Michael Pope
We're joined by Ben Tribbett.
Ben Tribbett
This new process of sending some voters a mail ballot is just changing how these things work totally.
Michael Pope
And Chaz Nuttycombe.
Chaz Nuttycombe
In a way, he has to run against some sort of delegate in some contests.
Michael Pope
You are listening to Pod Virginia; stick around as many as a favor that motion will say, Aye. I'm Michael Pope, and this is a very special episode of Pod Virginia. Special because we're going to take a look at all the special elections going on right now and even some special elections that we're anticipating for the future. And we have two very special guests joining us, a dynamic duo of Virginia politics. Joining us today is the president and founder of Pocket Aces Consulting, Ben Tribbett. Thanks for joining us.
Ben Tribbett
Thanks for having me.
Michael Pope
We are also joined by the director of CNanalysis, Chaz Nuttycombe. Thanks for joining us.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Hey, Michael. Thanks for having me on.
Michael Pope
So this is going to be fun. Thank you so much for joining us. Obviously, there are lots of special elections that are going on right now and even some in the future. So let's start with a big one. The one from this week that everyone's talking about is the special election to fill the seat of the late Congressman Donald McEachin. Now at the recording of this podcast, we still don't have the results of the firehouse primary here, but everybody is expecting Jennifer McClellan to win, which sets up a race with Democrat Jennifer McClellan versus Republican Leon Benjamin. Ben, let's start with you. What do you make of the special election here for this congressional seat? As you know, congressional seats don't open up all that often. So what do we make of this special election?
Unknown Speaker
Sure, this is a really unusual scenario. Obviously, we're all still grieving the loss of Donald McEachin, who, at least in my case, has been a dear friend for over two decades. And unfortunately, you know, we have to have this special election very quickly because Congress is very closely divided. And it's important that everyone is represented. And so we really haven't had anything like this in Virginia since Joanne Davis passed away. I think that was probably about 15 years ago. And that was the election that Rob Wittman got elected. So essentially, no one was ready to run. I think people felt that Donald had been recovering well from his health issues from a few years ago. I don't think anyone expected there to be a sudden vacancy here. Certainly not right after the election. And now candidates are trying to get this together within a week to then run in a caucus. This was a name ID election, and who could turn people out the fastest? And I expect that the reason I expect Jennifer McClellan will have one by the time the votes are counted today is I think there was both a pro-McClellan and an anti-Morrissey vote that was coming out for her, where Morrissey was really only getting the pro-Morrissey vote. I don't feel like there was an anti-McClellan vote. And so it gave her a big advantage in such a quick election.
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, you know, it's very unfortunate the passing of Congressman McEachin. And these are very big shoes to fill. And it's unique that we have a not special election but a nominating process so soon after his death due to just how laws are in Virginia once that special election by Governor Youngkin was called. I would agree with Ben, and I think that McClellan is the favorite if I were for pretty much the exact same reasons. I think Morrissey getting in this race definitely made sure that there was going to be more interest in this, in part because people wanted to prevent Congressman Joe Morrissey from happening. And then Morrissey himself being a very strong grassroots campaigner trying to get out votes of his own. And McClellan, running for Governor. Obviously, she fell very, very flat about winning that nomination in 2021. But now she's got name recognition areas that you know she hasn't represented before. So I would say she's probably going to come out on top of this. But it would be pretty interesting to see if Morrissey does become a nominee. And then he would pretty much when the general election special general election, how a Congressman Joe Morrissey would shake up Congress. But I don't think that's quite likely to happen.
Michael Pope
And what do we think of how the Democrats in the Fourth Congressional district have handled this process here? I mean, they're they didn't print enough ballots, they had to go and add more ballots, there were eight locations, and the counting of the votes has been painfully slow. Ben, what do we make of the fact that they chose a firehouse primary instead of going for the actual Primary that's run by election officials?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Sure. So primaries that are run by election officials are actually not possible in special elections. Because they only occur in June. So the party's only options here were to have a firehouse primary or to have a convention. And a convention would be even more onerous for participation because people would have to sit and stay where they were and not be able to leave a place until there's a nominee where a firehouse primary, at least people can walk in and out. I don't want to be overly critical of the party for the eight locations, I think, you know, they have to, they should have had more, but you've got to put together what you can put together on short notice the idea of waiting to count the ballots until the next day, and then not being prepared to count the ballots when you waited until the next day. That's atrocious and an embarrassment. And frankly, every single local committee in the state would have been better equipped to deal with that. And it's unacceptable.
You know, I remembered the Virginia Seventh convention back in 2020. And, you know, we knew the result of that and a few hours for the Republicans. So I think it's kind of, you know, it is definitely unusual that we aren't finding out the results and the results of this until the day after. But as Ben said, they're doing the best they can.
Michael Pope
One last question on this special election and the timing. So some Democrats have been critical of the Governor for choosing the date that he did when he chose the date. But then I've also heard from Democrats that said, hey, look, you know, like, you don't want to leave the constituents without congressional representation, especially in the House of Representatives that's so tightly matched between Republicans and Democrats. What do we make of the Governor's decision here in setting the date when he set it?
Unknown Speaker
I don't have a real issue with what the Governor did. I mean, obviously, there's a 60-day rule in federal elections that so military and overseas voters can get their ballots in that they have to have nominees, which is different than a state election. So that means when he said it in February, it meant the party had to nominate so quickly. It's unfortunate when you have safe seats that the election that really matters is the short election and the election that matters less. I don't think any of these Democratic candidates will have a problem against a Republican is the one that will go on for 60 days, but that's not the Governor's fault. And so, I think calling a fast special election in this circumstance was the right move. You know, if there was a different opportunity, for example, if this had happened in the spring, and the Governor thought if he put it off a little bit if maybe we could have moved towards that June state-run primary, to allow the parties an option for that. Maybe then you postpone it for a reason like that. But short of that thing, that would increase participation. We had plenty of participation in this election like it went on for a week; there were more voters in it than voted in the 2016 run state primary, where Donald McEachin won the seat for the first time. So voters found a place to go vote, and they participated. I think you're gonna see an overwhelming result. And so I think at the end of the day, the Governor did the right thing.
Michael Pope
Okay, the Governor did the right thing, says Ben Tribbett. Chaz, do you have any thoughts on that?
Chaz Nuttycombe
No. Yeah, I would agree. I think especially even if, you know, going for a state-run primary, you know, much later, I just think that it would be disrespectful to the voters for leaving them without representation for that long, I think trying to get a fast, special election coming in, especially in a very tightly controlled Congress. It's very contentious with a very narrow Republican majority. I think it was the right call to get this going as soon as possible.
Michael Pope
All right, so looking ahead to a potential future special election for Jennifer McClellan's seat, so you know, assuming Jennifer McClellan is the candidate for Congress or even the member of Congress, she'll have to step down from her state senate seat. That opens up a vacancy there in the Richmond suburbs. This is a Senate District, the oldest Senate Ninth district, not the new one, but the old one, that we'd have to fill the unexpired term. It stretches from Ashlyn through Richmond, Charles City County. This is the state that Donald McEachin held before going to Congress, and McClellan won it in 2017 in a special election with 91% of the vote against a libertarian. Then in 2019, she won 80% of the vote against another Libertarian. Republicans haven't even tried to field the candidate here since 2011 when Republican Floyd Mays won only 9% of the vote against McEachin. Then what do we make of the potential future special election for Jennifer McClellan's Senate seat?
Unknown Speaker
Sure, well, this is obviously a safe seat. There are five Senate seats in Virginia that, up until this latest redistricting debacle, were considered the five majority-minority seats that Doug Wilder originally drew in 1991. And those seats other than the Joe Morrissey, upset in 2019, have produced an African American senator in every election. It's worth noting, Michael, that of the 35 other Senate seats, none of them has ever produced an African American member of the Senate. So it's very important for minority representation in the Senate that these seats exist that the House of Delegates hasn't had that same problem. I think there's a reason for that smaller districts, it's easier to know people in the community, and it may not be as racially driven, whereas in the larger senate districts, clearly, race is a factor and how voters are electing candidates. And so I think you're gonna see a spirited primary where Richmond Democrats are going to definitely want an African American to take that seat. Given that Joe Morrissey holds the other Senate seat in the Richmond area. They're not going to want both of those seats do not have any minority representation.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, as Ben said, you know, I expect an African American would become a nominee in this seat. And it's very important for that to have enough representation for African Americans in the General Assembly. I think Lamont Bagby would be if he were to run for this seat. Assuming that McClellan is the nominee, I think he would be a favorite. And then one thing I think could be interesting is possibly Jeff Bourne. He is currently expected to go in a three-way primary with Betsy Carr and Don Adams in a district that doesn't really have a lot of territory for him. And, you know, for some reason, if I were him, I would have just run the district equivalent to the one he represents now, but he doesn't live in that one. If he does happen to live in the ninth district that McClellan represents, I think if you could get a Bagby versus Bourne primary, I think that would be a pretty early contest, not necessarily primary. I think that'd be pretty interesting.
Michael Pope
Doesn't that seem unlikely that Bagby and Bourne would run against each other?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, I think it would be unlikely. But you know, I think if I'm Bourne, I think he's got a better shot at, you know, running in that rather than running in the three-way primary.
Michael Pope
But Bagby now has all this goodwill for doing McClellan the solid by getting out of the race. And you can definitely see a scenario where he wants to run for the Senate seat. He's got the endorsement of Jennifer McClellan and Tim Kaine, and you know, the establishment.
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, you know, again, so it's just speculation on, you know, the predicament that born finds himself in. So either way, he has to run against some sort of delegate in some contests. I don't think he would, but if I were him, and I wanted to keep a job in the General Assembly, I would go for that, but obviously, you know, he has to run against a friend to do that. So I think he'll he'll probably keep trying to run in the three-way primary.
Michael Pope
Well, assuming that Lamont Bagby runs for the Senate seat vacated by Jennifer McClellan, then we've got another special election for the house 74th district. So this is in the Richmond suburbs. This is another solid blue seat. Last year, Bagby won the seat with 73% of the vote against Republican Jimmy Brooks. This is the seat formerly held by Joe Morrissey, who was elected to fill the vacancy created by Donald McEachin when he was in the State Senate. So a lot of familiar names here with this 74th House District. This district stretches from Glen Allen through Highland springs to the Richmond airport. Ben Tribbett, what do we make of this potential future special election for Lamont Bagby's seat?
Unknown Speaker
Let me start by saying this. I think, when we think about the sort of the cascading effect of all these districts and obviously, you know, as Chaz said, you could see Jeff Bourne run, you could see Lamont Bagby run. Generally speaking, in this part of Richmond, there haven't been a lot of really spirited, contested Democratic primaries; things tend to get worked out much more in the Richmond area than in Northern Virginia. And the caution flag I'd put on it is, I think it's Bagby as if he wants it. But Lamont Bagby is also a senior member of the House leadership. And so whether he wants to become a freshman state senator versus if the Democrats take control of the House of Delegates this year, Lamont Bagby would be a key player in running things. And so, you know, I think he's gonna, you'll have to make that decision when the time comes. But I wouldn't assume that he's going to want to become a freshman senator when he's such a senior member of the House leadership. Now that having been said, as you noted, there have been a lot of big names that came to that Senate seat, and he may decide he wants to go to the Senate and go build up seniority. And he'd be ahead of the new class that came in this year. So I think that this is all sort of still to be determined. And you will see, people make their minds up for more than just whether or not they could win it. I think Bagby is the favorite if he wants it. But I don't think it's clearly answered yet whether he wants it. Secondarily, from that, where would you see the cards play out from there if there is a vacancy and Lamar is back to his house seat? Eastern Henrico is the core of that district, particularly in the Fairfield district in Henrico, which is the one historically African American seat. I think you can see Tyrone Nelson potentially moving up. There are other leading people in the community there. But that is very much Donald McEachin's political base that he came out of; he'd won Michael over three incumbents there because, remember that he ousted a house incumbent there, then left his house seat to run for Attorney General. And then came back to the house to another house incumbent that had come in after he's elected Attorney General, then ousted the incumbent state senator from the Primary. So Donald McEachin is really the only person who's ever been in these contested primaries and then gone out and won them. Usually in the Richmond area. You see, these things get sorted out, you know, much more behind the scenes.
Michael Pope
Turing our attention from hypothetical special elections to actual real live special elections down in Virginia Beach. We've got the seat vacated by former Senator Jen Kiggin's. So we've got a whopper of a special election out there, where we've got Republican Kevin Adams versus Democrat Aaron Rouse. If you look at the dynamics of this district, it's a swing district. It went these precincts in this district went for Youngkin in the gubernatorial election. And then they went for Luria in the congressional election that Ben Tribbett, you worked on that campaign. So you're very familiar with this area? What do you make of this special election here for Ken Kiggin's seat?
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, Michael, this is the thing I was ready to come on today and give you my boldest prediction, which is, I think we're entering a new era here in special elections, where the Democratic candidate in any marginal seat is going to be the overwhelming favorite. A few years ago, the General Assembly updated the law to make it much easier to vote absentee vote. And when they did that, they created a permanent absentee list that you just have to check a box when you apply for an absentee ballot. That puts you on the permanent mail vote list. There are almost 7,000 People in the senate district who, during the congressional election this year for Elaine Luria, who won overwhelmingly in the early vote, signed up for permanent mail ballots of that of the identification as voters. They run about three to one democratic, so you can expect the 7,000, a little bit north of 5,000, to be Democratic voters when you talk about the low turnout and the politics of a special election. And you interject in 7,000 random voters getting a ballot of which that there's a humongous party split towards the Democrats of those voters. That gives the Democratic candidate a huge advantage. I would argue that even in marginally Republican districts, Democratic candidates may have the upper hand and special elections until Republicans get their act together on this whole early voting issue. And obviously, they've been prevented from voting early in the numbers that they used to. Republicans used to dominate early voting, especially mail vote, because they have older voters, but Trump just changed the trajectory of that totally within the party, where they don't trust early voting. And I think you're gonna see democratic dominance and special elections across the state for a period of time here until Republicans figure out what to do about this.
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think Ben is right that the Democrats are probably favored in this. If I were to rate this, I would say toss-over tilt democratic. So the toss-up is the best rating that a Republican can get for this special election. I think that Rouse is a strong candidate. That's not to say that Adams isn't a strong candidate as, well. But also, when we're talking about special elections, aside from the really good point that Ben made on mail-in voting, look at the recent general election from November, where Republicans very much underperformed, but also the special elections leading up to that, where, Alaska or the New York District, in I think it was the 19th congressional district. Special elections by August and September, we're very much showing that there is democratic enthusiasm. And I don't think we're really looking at a totally different environment, especially in a seat like this, which is very suburban, affluent, and educated, that I think a Republican would be strictly favored. And even though Youngkin won this district, 2022 is not 2021, that we know for sure, looking at the results from this year.
Michael Pope
So one more thing before we move on from this special election is that the Democrat Aaron rouse has raised a ton of money, way more than Republican Kevin Adams; Rouse has been all over the TV, all over the airwaves, all over the radio. What do we make of these campaigns, and how they're actually operating?
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, I think that it looks like the Democrats are outspending the Republicans in most elections now. In the congressional elections in Virginia, I think the Democratic candidates outspent the Republicans, and every one of them, um, Republicans have a money problem, period. So I'm not sure if it's as much cow campaigns are run versus what the environment is out there, which is democratic donors are much more willing to play and many more things than Republican donors are and provide the resources for it. You saw that in the congressional elections, though the Republicans had to match the money through congressional leadership PACs, not through raising for their own candidate. So you know, it's hard to tell the Virginia Beach election Michael has an added little asterisk that's on it, which is the district has been drastically redrawn after redistricting, to where Republicans may not feel they have a great chance at it after redistricting. So I think that their amount of investment and the amount they care about this will really come down to what they think a Senator for a year is more to them versus trying to elect someone long term. And look, with the wildcard being Joe Morrissey in this congressional primaries going on right now, that could send Joe back to the State Senate. I think Republicans are going to care more about the seat in Virginia Beach and keeping it a one-seat Democratic majority versus a two-seat majority. Because of that, so I think they are going to play here late, and I do think they're going to make an effort at it. It's just that the numbers when you talk about, you know, thousands of democratic vote advantage in the early vote. This isn't one where you can go win by sneaking up on people on election day; the Republicans are really gonna have to put forward a major effort to win this.
Michael Pope
Alright, so turning our attention to Northern Virginia, we've got a special election to fill the seat vacated by Delegate Mark Keam, who stepped down to take a position in the Biden administration. This is a district that includes Tyson's Corner, Vienna, Oakton, and Fairoaks. And as the geography might indicate, this is a solidly Democratic district. Mark Keam won this district last year with 69% of the vote. The last time we had an opponent before that was way back in 2013, when he won with 65% of the vote. So this is a January 10 special election that features Republican Monique Baroudi versus Democrat Holly Seibold. Full disclosure, Ben Tribbett, you're working for Holly Seibold in this campaign. So what can you tell us about the special election? Are they in the 35th?
Unknown Speaker
Yeah, so this is actually not the first time I've worked in the 35th district. Michael actually worked for Steve Shannon back when he originally turned in the seat blue in 2003. And then worked with Senator Peterson in 2007 when he won his Senate seat, which heavily overlapped with this district, so I've done a lot of campaigns over a lot of years in the Vienna area. I expect Holly's going to do very well. She's obviously already pulled a huge upset to win the nomination over an incumbent elected official in Fairfax County, and it is rare that you see incumbent Democratic officials in Fairfax County ever lose elections because of name ID. So I think she's already gotten through our toughest challenge. But it is a special election. You've got to take it seriously and turn out your votes. Again, though, I'll point you back to the same thing I said in Virginia Beach. Look at these early mail votes. There have already been 1,500 votes cast in this district. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they're running, not running four or five to one. Democratic based on how those votes came in, in other elections recently for mail boats. This new process of sending some voters a mail ballot is just changing how these things work totally. And I think when you see the results from this, and you see how this will work in all of these special elections, I would not be surprised at all to see Republicans in the state take a totally dramatic move and call for every voter to be mailed a ballot so that they don't start these campaigns with such huge deficits.
Michael Pope
While that would go against time, that would be a pretty radical departure from their current position. Moving out to Ronnie Campbell's seats so another unfortunate passing of Delegate Ronnie Campbell. This is a district that includes Lexington, Buena Vista, Craigsville, Amherst, and Warm Springs. Now, as you might imagine, this is a solidly Republican district. Campbell went last year with 73% of the vote. This is the district where Ben Klein used to represent; he used to win with 60% of the vote 70% of the vote. There's lots of talk about delegate Campbell's widow, Ellen Campbell, running and winning. We don't really hear about this sort of thing. Often in Virginia, you in Washington, you frequently hear about people dying and their widows being elected. I can't think of a single example of this ever happening in the General Assembly.
Chaz Nuttycombe
You noted, Michael, that this was there was a special election here four years ago. And what people may not remember is that that was a pretty notable overperformance. You noted how Klein would routinely win with 70% of the vote. Campbell got around 60%. I think this is it's still going to be a Republican hold. But it will be interesting to see if there will be another overperformance for a special election, as there has been. I think it could maybe even be closer than 2018 If things go right. You know, Ben has made a very good point on the situation with absentees mailing in absentees for special elections now, whereas this was not the situation four years ago. I think with that, you could have a result closer than 2018. Although, you know, widows. I think that makes Ellen Campbell a stronger candidate than Ronnie Campbell when he first ran, but we'll see what happens.
Michael Pope
All right, well, this has been tons of fun. I'm tempted to call this a very special episode of the Pod Virginia, but I think I've already run that joke into the ground. So Ben Tribbett and Chaz Nuttycombe, Thanks for joining us.
