Michael Pope

I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

I'm Thomas Bowman.

Michael Pope

And this is Transition Virginia, the podcast documenting the ongoing transition of power in Virginia politics.

Thomas Bowman

We've got a dynamite show for you today. We're gonna look at the hottest House races across Virginia.

Michael Pope

The Republican State Leadership Committee is targeting about 13 House incumbents, and we've got the best guest here to walk us through these districts and get a sense of what's happening in these races.

Thomas Bowman

Returning to the podcast is our friend, the Director of CNalysis, an election forecasting group that specializes in state legislative races. You can also hear him on the CNnalysis podcast. Chaz Nuttycombe, thanks for coming back.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Hey, thanks so much for having me on again. It's good to talk to you guys.

Michael Pope

We've got to start with these two really hot races, the Roz Tyler seat in South Side, and the Chris Hurst seat out in Blacksburg. Chaz, what do you make of these two marquee races here? Let's start with the Delegate Tyler. You know, of all of these races, of all these incumbents, that are kind of being targeted by Republicans, this is the lone standout, in terms of the veteran. She was first elected back in 2005, so she's been in the House quite some time. She's running against Republican, Otto Wachsmann. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 75?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I've got it as a toss up. Look, Roz Tyler had the closest re-election of anybody on the Democratic side in the House of Delegates in 2019. She had a closer call than expected, and the thing about the South Side region is it hasn't been since 2005, when Tim Kaine was elected Governor, that other regions swung leftward from the previous presidential election. Even Ralph Northam, while he was winning by nine points statewide, South Side, that region's still, you saw a rightward swing from 2016. So that's one thing that makes this race really competitive. Roz Tyler really hasn't even had a competitive race in over a decade, decade and a half even, and Wachsmann didn't really have much of a campaign in 2019, yet came so close, and now he's got a pretty good operation. This is definitely the Republicans best pickup opportunity. I'd still say you know, it's it's going to be very close race.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I agree with that. Tyler's race is most likely a toss up. Tyler won in 2019 by about 500 votes over the same candidate. And one benefit that Roz Tyler has going into this race, is that the Governor is also on the ballot. And so while, yes, it's a toss up, I think she's probably going to be okay. But you know, things get squirrely around this time in Virginia.

Michael Pope

So the other marquee race, in terms of all of these House races, is Delegate Chris Hurst. Now he knocked off Joseph Yost back in 2017, Hurst was part of that wave of Democrats that won so many seats back in 2017. He's running against Republican Jason Ballard. Chaz, what do you make of this race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I think Ballard is definitely the best candidate, honestly, that is run against Chris Hurst, even better than Yost, even though Yost was the incumbent. This is going to be a very tough race for me to pick, and there are going to be three races, when I'm casting the final predictions, what I do in the final predictions is I eliminate toss ups. And this is one of the toss ups that I'm gonna have a really hard time picking, for a good amount of reasons. Look, Chris Hurst was one of the few candidates who flipped district in 2017 that outran Ralph Northam. The only other candidate that did that was Jennifer Caroll Foy. So he was he was a stellar candidate in 2017. All right, and I want to say a big reason why that is is because you know, he's fresh off TV. We see how people on local TV can really over perform in elections. You can look at 2020s New Mexico Senate race with Mark Ronchetti, the Republican, running several points ahead of Donald Trump. It was a single-digit race while Trump was losing New Mexico by double-digits.

Thomas Bowman

Chaz, do you get the sense that Chris Hurst has maintained that momentum from 2017?

Chaz Nuttycombe

No, no, absolutely not. Look...and that's kind of what I want to get out here. You know, Chris is not the, he doesn't have the candidate quality he had in 2017. It's been, you know, four years since he's been on TV. And not only that, but you know, you have the drinking while driving scandal. He wasn't arrested or anything like that, but but here's the thing, though, about that. The Ballard campaign only just recently started running attack ads on him for that. So it's pretty surprising that it took them that long, I want to say was like the last one or two weeks, they decided, so they wait until October to do that. I see that as Chris Hurst's Achilles heel, and they've waited so long to tap at it.

Thomas Bowman

What's interesting about bringing up a DUI, Chaz, is the Democrats actually tried to bring up a DUI against Matt Fariss, not Blacksburg, but still out in that direction. And when the Democrats brought up Matt Fariss’s DUI, his vote share actually increased above what was expected, and they could trace it to the DUI mailers that they sent out. And so I'm wondering, is there a chance that the DUI makes Chris Hurst seem like an every man?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I don't know about that. I'm not I'm not aware of the Matt Fariss thing. You know, I'll say that Matt Fariss is in a much redder district. What year was this?

Thomas Bowman

Oh, this was about almost 10 years ago now.

Chaz Nuttycombe

2011?

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, 11 or 13.

Chaz Nuttycombe

11 or 13. Okay. I mean, 2011, we got new lines as well. So that can be one thing. But I don't think there's really any any argument for that.

Thomas Bowman

No boost for Hurst?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think it's very unbecoming. And I think the attack ads will be, we'll see how effective they are. But I don't think Chris Hurst is going to run ahead of...unless there is a pattern to where, unlike 2017, you know, you have many House incumbents running ahead of McAuliffe. You know, I think it's more likely that we're going to see the incumbents in the House, run behind him by few points. I think Chris is going to be no exception to that.

Michael Pope

Also worth pointing out, this is going back into very ancient history, but right before the 2000 election, in November of 2000, it came out that George W. Bush had a drinking and driving arrest from his days back, when his drinking days, he had sobered up by the time he ran for President, but it didn't seem to have too much of an influence there. So just some ancient history, sort of, laying the groundwork for how people sometimes react or don't react to those sorts of things.

Chaz Nuttycombe

I don't think it's really an accurate comparison, given the amount of time between you know, when George Bush was running and the actual DUI, and meanwhile this was while Chris Hurst was in office. So it's it's a very big difference when you are in incumbent and drinking while driving, compared to, you know, something you did many, many years ago in your, in your youth. So I think there's a big difference there.

Michael Pope

Okay, now turning our attention to Northern Virginia. There are a handful of interesting seats that are being contested in Northern Virginia. Let's start in Loudon, in House District 10. We've got Delegate Gooditis. She was part of that wave of Democrats that swept many seats in 2017. She knocked off Randy Minchew back in that 2017 race. This year, she's running against Nick Clemente. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 10?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think this is a toss up race as well. I think Gooditis is very much in danger. And I think Nick Clemente is, by far, the best recruit the House GOP has for the 2021 cycle. I think he's a stellar candidate.

Thomas Bowman

Why is that?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Oh, I mean, his ability to fundraise. He's run a great campaign, he's a young, attractive candidate, and I think, you know, there's an argument to be made that he may be even stronger than Minchew. You know, in terms of I mean, look, Minchew already tried making a comeback bid in 2019. And yes, while 2019 was still blue wave year, I still think that having a fresh face is definitely the best path forward for Republicans in this seat. And you know, this seat may not even really be that competitive after redistricting. We'll see what happens with redistricting. That's a totally different conversation. That's also a headache, but I think Clemente is a really good candidate. He's out-raised Gooditis throughout the cycle, up until this point, now Gooditis has the money advantage. And this is going to be a tough race for me to pick. But I think it's a pure toss up. Plain and simple. This is going to be a nail biter.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, had a chance to sit down for a couple drinks with Wendy Gooditis' 2019 campaign manager, who actually listens to this podcast. And he's also worried about Wendy Gooditis being able to hold on, because of all the things he just said, Chaz. Well funded candidate, this may be the best recruit they could have found to go up against her in this election cycle. And as you mentioned, Randy Minchew's popularity was definitely on the way out, and this guy seems to be on the way up, right?

Michael Pope

Alright, turning our attention to House District 28, this is the seat that used to be held by former Speaker Bill Howell. It was held for a hot minute by Bob Thomas, who was knocked off in 2019 by Joshua Cole. So now Cole is running for re-election against Tara Durant. This is also one of the hottest House races across Virginia. Chaz, what do we make of this House race for District 28?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, this is another one of those seats, just like the 12th, in the toss column, I'm gonna have a very hard time picking when it comes to eliminating toss ups, and picking a winner. I think that Josh is definitely going to have a closer race than he did in 2019, not only because of different environment, but I would say his win number, you know, his margin of victory, was, arguably, inflated, given the division between the Stafford Republicans. You know, they just came off of a deeply divided, tight contest between Bob Thomas and Paul Milde, Milde beat Thomas and the primary. They ran against each other in 2017, as well. And there was another close contest then, but this one was just between the two of them. And so now though, you have the Stafford Republicans united in their candidate, Tara Durant, I think she's an alright candidate. A lot of Republicans, especially in Stafford, seem to be pretty bullish on her. She's raised a good amount of money. She's run, I guess, a decent campaign. But you know, regardless, this is a seat that did vote for Donald Trump in 2016. It did vote for Biden, though in 2020, by, you know, high single digits. But this is going to be a tough race to pick.

Thomas Bowman

Josh Cole has some built in structural advantages, being a Black pastor, very plugged in with his community, and a young guy who energizes his progressive base. But I really liked the point you made, Chaz, that the Republican Party, in the last cycle, was divided. And now they are united behind their candidate. And that is going to kind of eliminate those structural advantages that Josh Cole had. That being said, I look at all of the races we're talking about today, and I remember that incumbents win, now, more than 88% of the time. So the chances are, most of these people are going to be fine. And there is a huge baked in incumbency advantage, even for Josh Cole, but it's one that I watch him, I love his messaging, and I think he could possibly do even better than we expect. But it's the one that if we lose anyone in Northern Virginia, that's who my money is on.

Michael Pope

Turning our attention to Prince William. We've got Delegate Elizabeth Guzman in House District 31. This is yet another one of these seats that Democrats won in 2017, when Guzman knocked off Delegate Scott Lingemfelter, the Republican in the race is Ben Baldwin. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 31?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think Guzman's likely to be fine. I give her at least an eight in 10 chance of winning re election, maybe even the nine in 10 chance. Ben Baldwin doesn't really have much of a campaign at all. You know, it's really interesting. They had a really good candidate here in 2019, the Republicans, in DJ Jordan, where they couldn't get him to run for the seat this time. I think if DJ Jordan was running again, I think this would be a much more competitive race, possibly even near, the pretty near the tossup territory. But they weren't able to get him, they got this...some random random guy who's run like a very skeletal campaign. So, you know, if Youngkin's like winning, even if he's just winning by you know, a hair, this could be a race that would flip, you know, it takes, it would take a pretty enormous red wave, not just a red like tide, like I think there's going to be. I think Republicans pick up a few seats. But I think the Democrats hold everything by the skin of their teeth, when it comes to the House. And then you have relatively close races from the state wides, it would take a Republican overperformance compared to my expectations for the seat to flip.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, Guzman made a very wise decision by dropping out of her statewide race, in order to hold on to her House seat. And that, I think, is going to make all the difference in this race. Had she not done that, and it were an open seat, because she hadn't ran again, then I think that it would be very much a toss up in anybody's race. But Guzman here, ultimately, tending some mysterious red wave that has not yet materialized, Guzman is going to be okay.

Michael Pope

Turning our attention to Centreville. We've got Delegate Dan Helmer in House District 40. He was able to knock off Delegate Tim Hugo in 2019, so this is not a seat that flipped in 2017, but sort of came later in that 2019 election cycle. Delegate Helmer's running against Harold Pyon. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 40?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, we've got this see as tilt Democratic, so Helmer's got like a 60% chance of winning re-election. I could even see this race going up a notch in the final predictions up to like 70% chance to the lean Democratic column for Helmer. I think Pyon's run a pretty good campaign. I think he's had a few missteps. But look, one thing that he would need to do, in order for an upset here, is the minority communities in the 40th would need to be peeled off, and he would have to overperform with them, especially the Asian American community. Ben Sherbert made a good point about that, on how that was how Republicans were able to win back some of the Orange County, California seats and 2020. You know, they ran great Asian American candidates, like the congressman from California's 39th, Young Kim, not Youngkin, Young Kim. But um, yeah, so I think if he's able to do that, you know, I think you can definitely see an upset here. Helmer has been, you know, winning the money race and whatnot, of course, but uh, you know, I think he's favored. I think he's favored. If, you know, I'm the head of Democratic Party, I'm not sweating the seat too much. It's just something that I would keep on the radar.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, that's the district I actually grew up in, Michael and Chaz, and Dan Helmer knocked on my parents door, and my mom, very nicely, asked him for a sign. And so she has the, for the first time ever, McAuliffe/Helmer yard sign for any candidate in front of her house. And she tells me the reason she asked for that is because the Republican opponent is winning the yard sign war, at least in her neighborhood for sure. She's in a 50/50 Deer Park precinct. But Helmer has an advantage, in that the vote continues to trend more and more blue, in that district specifically, in those 50/50 suburban precincts. And so ultimately, I think Dan, like you said, is somewhere between a 60% and a 70% chance to win. Harold Pyon is so far down the list of potential Republican pickups, that again, I don't see it, pending some giant red wave, Helmer's gonna win.

Michael Pope

Alright, let's take a break. When we come back, we'll take a look at contested races in the Richmond area and in Hampton Roads.

And now, another feature from Steve Artley, featuring the voice talent of Kathy McGee on vocals.

Steve Artley

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Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about contested House races this year. We're joined by our friend, Chaz Nuttycombe, and let's turn our attention to the Richmond area. We've got Delegate Rodney Willett in House District 73. This is one of those seats, one of those many seats, that flipped in 2017, when Deborah Rodman knocked off John O'Bannon. Rodman, of course, had an unsuccessful campaign for the Senate, so she's not around anymore. We've got Delegate Rodney Willett, and he's facing Republican Mary Margaret Kastleberg. Chaz, what do we make of this race here for House District 73?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think Willett is favored. You know, I will say, he outran my expectations, in terms of margin a victory in 2017. It's going to be it was going to be a much tighter race. He won by like four and a half points, I want to say, so almost five points. So, you know, I think he's a good fit for the district. I think Kastleberg is a very good candidate, don't get me wrong, I think she's like the perfect candidate Republican's can get for the seat, and, you know, look, Kastleberg did out-raise Willett in the last quarter, but I think at the end of the day, we've got the seat as tilt Democratic, so like 60/40, 60% chance Willett wins, but I think this seat's going to end up in the final predictions in the 70/30 column for lean Democratic. This is another one of those seats, just like the Helmer seat, House 40, where it doesn't require a Youngkin victory. It would have to require a very tight race for Virginia governor, likely within four points. If McAuliffe is winning by, you know, more than four points, I think, I think Willett should be able to hold on.

Thomas Bowman

Chaz, you mentioned that Rodney Willett over performed your expectations in 2019. My question is, does the statewide candidates being on the ballot this time help, Rodney Willett, or does this help Mary Margaret Kastleberg?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, that kind of depends. You know, it depends on how Youngkin is going to do with these suburban voters. Obviously, in 2017, you know, you had O'Bannon swept out by just this massive blue tsunami, this backlash against Donald Trump, and the terrible campaign that Ed Gillespie ran, but I don't think Youngkin has ran an Ed Gillespie 2017 campaign. So I think it all depends on that. Is there going to be a suburban swing back to the Republicans? If so, how big is it going to be? If not, then, you know, Willett can hold on. And, you know, I would argue that, let's say that there could be a possibility that, you know, you have some of these Democratic incumbents in competitive races who outrun McAuliffe? I think based on the 2019 results, I would say there's a strong argument that Willett could be one of them. I think there's a possibility of that.

Michael Pope

Alright, Chaz, you mentioned that 2017 blue wave, yet another one of those flips that year was Don Adams, who knocked off Minoli Lu Posse there in the Richmond area. This year, Delegate Adams has a Republican candidate Mark Early Jr. of course, a marquee name, in Virginia politics. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 68?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, look, this race was only so close given Manoli Loupassi was just such a very, very wildly popular incumbent. This race was decided by, what, like 300 votes and 2017 I want to say? And this seat is like one of the most rapidly trending toward the Democrats, rapidly leftward trending seats in the Donald Trump era. It's a very...it will only elect the most moderate of moderate Republicans and Mark Early Jr. isn't really that. Manoli Loupassi was, but Loupassi isn't here, it's Mark Early Jr. This is the seat that, unless Youngkin is winning the gubernatorial race, is not going to flip. So we've got this as likely Democratic, just like the Guzman race 80/20, in terms of odds, so I think Don Adams is likely to hold on.

Thomas Bowman

You know, the other thing to keep in mind, too, is I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, that the Early's are from Virginia Beach, or thereabouts. And therefore, Mark Early does not necessarily have an established network in Richmond. His dad also, yes, Attorney General, however, not popular, and some people would characterize it as getting run out of the party toward the end. So Early Jr. might be the best Republican that they could come up with for the moment, against Don Adams, but he had to move into the district. His family isn't really from around Richmond. And I still think having a local person in districts around Richmond, matters, less so than transient areas like the Beach or Northern Virginia. But I think it still matters here. So Mark Early Jr. also, not his family not being super popular, with the Republican establishment in town, I think Don Adams has been able to walk the line as an extraordinarily moderate Republican and be inoffensive to the Republican establishment in town.

Michael Pope

Another race in Richmond worth talking about, his House District 72, currently held by Schuyler VanValkenburg. Now back in 2017, this was a seat that flipped from R to D. Delegate Jimmy Massey did not run again. So it was an open seat when it flipped to Schuyler VanValkenburg. This year, he's got a Republican opponent, Christopher Holmes, not the guitar player for the heavy metal band Wasp, a different Chris Holmes. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of this race for House District 72?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I would say Schuyler's got a lean Democratic race on his hands, possibly likely Democratic. But I think the final rating we're going to have to this seat is lean Democratic. This seat, when redistricting happened in 2019, it got a few points bluer, more Black voters were put into Schuyler's district as they removing the lines around, and Schuyler won by, what was it, like six and a half points? I don't think he's going to get that margin. I think he wins by, something around five, based on what I think is going to happen in November, on November 2. It could be a race that gets a little bit closer, if he's running behind McAuliffe by a little bit. Or you know, depending on what McAuliffe's margin is. So I think there's a chance for an upset, but again, this is, this is going to take a much closer, or not much closer, but a few points closer than expected, race for governor, than what I'm thinking is going to be happening on November 2. Schuyler's a, you know, he's a popular incumbent, and look, in 2017, you know, he won by over five points outperforming people's expectations in the slightly redder seat. I think he's just so much more entrenched now. This is going to be harder for the Republicans to beat them. And, you know, I don't think Chris Holmes has really run a great campaign whatsoever. I mean, they just got on TV, like recently, like within the last two or three weeks, maybe at the earliest four, so I think he's gonna be fine, most likely.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, Schuyler VanValkenburg, by the way, former guest of the show, and he's also a civics teacher. And so, and a very popular civics teacher at that, local, in the community. So he's turning out a couple 100 voters every year, who, as a matriculate, into being allowed to vote. So VanValkenburg, again, he's on the way up, but it is a squirrely district. And we'll have a very different conversation, most likely, after the new redistricting maps are out. But for 2021 I think Schuyler is going to be alright.

Michael Pope

Yeah, Delegate VanValkenburg was on our episode about the Readjusters. So he's that rare politician and elected official that not only is conversant in history, but actually cares about it, and can talk about it at some length. Okay, turning our attention to Virginia Beach. There are four seats we want to talk about out there. Let's start with House District 21. This is Delegate Kelly Converse Fowler. She was yet another one of these Democrats that knocked off a Republican back in the 2017 election cycle, when she beat Delegate Ron Villanueva. This year, her Republican opponent is Tanya Gould. Chaz, what do we make of this race here for House District 21?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think Gould has a very strong candidate profile, but she hasn't really run that great of a campaign. This is another one of those seats where it's going to require Youngkin either coming very, very close to winning, like, within, you know, like within a point or, you know, Youngkin actually wins. It is interesting, you know, you got a large Filipino community, and a large Black community in this district. And those were two groups that did swing rightward in 2020, especially Filipinos. You look at areas across the country where you have a large Filipino population, it depends on the area, but some of them had massive swing to the Republicans 20, 30 points even in these Filipino communities, and then some of them, the rest of them, they're about the same, they stayed about the same. So unfortunately, because Virginia does not, they have, you know, a central absentee precinct and whatnot, we don't really have the data for that for how the Virginia Beach Filipinos went in 2020, in terms of swinging exactly down to the precinct level. So if the Republicans can, in Virginia, can do what Donald Trump did last year, and really keep making inroads with minority communities, you know, they may be able to win this seat, even if, you know, Youngkin is, you know, losing by four points.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah. And by the way, Kelly Fowler has run a very interesting digital communications campaign, because she is the first delegate, I'm aware of, to be on Tiktok, so you can catch her there. And that does make her more approachable. It does connect her with people who are similarly interested, and some of it's political, and some of its slam dunking on Republicans in general, and not everybody loves every single Tiktok, but the important point is that she's pushing out more and more and more content, and she doesn't have to pay for it. Compare that with the Republican, or any other traditional campaign. There's always room to improve and I don't know that she's necessarily hit on the magic formula, but she's stumbled across something very interesting that could change future elections.

Michael Pope

First Delegate to be on TikTok. Well, that's really something. You would imagine, because it is, as you point, out free, more of these elected officials would take advantage of that.

Chaz Nuttycombe

On TikTok, yeah, there's actually a big, you'd be surprised on how well state legislators do on TikTok. Unfortunately, a big TikTok star that did go down in 2020, was Matt Little's state senator from Minnesota, he but he represented a very red district. And then I saw this viral TikTok from the Kentucky Senate Democrats. They were joining in on this one trend, and yeah, I think it's always entertaining to see that in my, in my for you page, the occasional state legislator on TikTtok. I forgot to mention, the rating for this, by the way, we have this is likely Democrat so Fowler's got like an 80% chance of winning.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, one more note on TikTok, the algorithm actually advantages your local geography first. So they, when you put out a new video, it sends it to 100 people, both some of your followers, and, well it sends it to all of your followers, but 100 people who aren't your followers, and that primarily goes out to people in your regional geography. If that video performs well, then it pushes it us out to 1000 people who don't follow you, again, more likely to be in your area. And after that, if it continues to perform well, then it goes out to a wider and wider audience. So, including, by the way, people who are interested in the content that you're putting out, according to the hashtags, and your other followers, etc. So, it's got a very nice structural advantage for legislators, as you say, because it's not based on who you know, it's based on who's nearby and what people like.

Michael Pope

Well, speaking of people who are nearby to Delegate Converse Fowler, one of those people is Delegate Nancy Guy in House District 83. This is not a seat that flipped in 2017. Instead, it's a seat that flipped in 2019, when Nancy Guy was able to knock off Delegate Chris Stolley. This year her Republican opponent is Tim Anderson. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 83?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, you know, the primary was so interesting here. Chris Stolle was trying to come back but Anderson beat him in the primary and that was one of the few primary contests I got wrong. And Anderson was running to Stolle's right. I think if Stolle had won this primary, this would be like a lean Republican pickup, absolutely. In the lean Republican column, that'll probably be the final rating. Guy only beat Stolle by, like, what, I know it was less than 50 votes, I want to say it was like 40 votes. It was close. Yeah, it was a nail biter. They had to do a recount. But you know, that was against Stolle, though, in 2019. Right? This is this is a district that voted for Biden by double digits in 2020. So it is a blue sea. It is a very, not super blue, you know, deep blue like something like Don Adams, but I will say that I think Tim Anderson has run, not a terrible campaign, honestly, especially in looking at the campaign finance reports. I think he's outperformed my expectations, I had this is still Democratic right after Anderson won, but then I had to move it back to toss up. This gonna be one of those races where I'm eliminating toss up is gonna be a very tough pick. And 83rd was in one of those three races, again in 2019, and there were three races that were a tough pick for me in 2019, that was 66th, 27th, and 83rd. So the 83rd, this is another one of the, it's it's gonna be very tough for me to pick. It is the purest tossiest of tossups. So that's the thing. Even if, you know, McAuliffe is winning by like five points, I could still see Nancy Guy going down. So, you know, it is it's a tough pick.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I always get nervous when we are talking about elections in Virginia Beach, in the Hampton Roads area. One, the Republicans generally have a very strong political machine and operation out there. Two, there's a lot of military voters in those areas, who are transients, so the electorate is not necessarily the same electorate that was there, even in the last election. But, as you said, Nancy Guy should be okay, the incumbency advantage here is going to be her friend. Also, not running against Stolle is going to be her friend. So we'll see how she does on Election Day. But I think, ultimately, she hangs on.

Chaz Nuttycombe

I didn't say that she should be okay, I'm saying that it is literally flip a coin, literally.

Thomas Bowman

I'm saying she should be okay. Yeah, I'm saying she's....

Chaz Nuttycombe

Hey, that's your prediction. We'll see, I mean, you may be right, again, cuz I just, I just have no idea. I literally have no idea who's gonna win this. It's gonna be a tough call for me to pick here and two weeks from now.

Michael Pope

Rest assured, our listeners will let us know, one way or the other after election results come in. So, another Virginia Beach seat worth looking at is the one held by Delegate Alex Askew. This is yet another one of those seats that flipped in 2017, when Cheryl Turpin knocked off Delegate Rocky Holcomb. Turpin of course is no longer on the scene, because she ran an unsuccessful Senate campaign. So we've got incumbent Delegate Alex Askew here, the Republican he's running against is Karen Greenhalgh. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 85?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I got it as a toss up, but I think this race, I think in the final predictions we're gonna have this is still Democratic. I think Alex Askew has run a great campaign, and now he's the incumbent. And I don't think Karen Greenhalgh has run a, you know, stellar campaign. I think, you know, it's not a not a bad campaign per se, but you know, it's all right. You know, this district, they get bluer in redistricting used to be a Trump/Biden district and now it is a Clinton/Biden district. But, you know, this isn't a double digit Biden district, Biden only won this by single digits. I want to say something like eight or nine points. And you know, Virginia is very much Republican favoring down ballot. So it is still toss up, but I think in the final predictions I'm going to have this is tilt Democratic.

Michael Pope

Well, one last race want to talk about in Hampton, where we've got Delegate Martha Mugler in House District 91. This is the seat that flipped in 2019, when Gordon Helsel did not run for re-election, so Martha Mugler won that seat when it was open. This year, her Republican opponent is AC Cordoza. Chaz, what do we make of this race for House District 91 in Hampton?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so there are only two incumbent Democrats in the House who... incumbent Democrats in the House who are in competitive races, who were actually able to beat Biden's 2020 margin. And the other one is Chris Hurst, but I will note that, you know, 2020, you didn't really have in person classes. So that was a big reason for that at Virginia Tech. And now you do...go Hokies. And the other one was Martha Mugler. And, you know, Martha Mugler is, you know, she doesn't have a college, you know, a big college in her district or anything like that. It's just because Martha Mugler is a stellar, popular incumbent, and now incumbent, and she flipped this district in 2019, after redistricting, but she's just an amazing fit for the system for this district. And the Republicans didn't really get a good candidate against her, for that reason, even though this district didn't even vote for Biden by double digits. Again, just like, you know, the 28th and the 12th and the 85th, and, and the 75th, and the 63rd, these are all seats that voted for Biden by single digits. But Martha Mugler was actually able to do better than what Biden could pull here, and that just goes to show you how you know good to fit she is for the for the district. We have this is likely Democratic, and that's going to be the final rating for it. It's it's very...it's gonna be hard for the Republicans to flip this seat.

Thomas Bowman

Well Chaz, we're running out of time, so real quickly, I want to ask: What's your final prediction for the tally in the House?

Chaz Nuttycombe

That's a good question. I think I think the Republicans pick up like two seats, maybe three. Look, I think when it comes to the seats, I'm going to have the toughest time picking, it's going to be the 28th, which is Joshua Cole, the 83rd, which is Nancy Guy, and the 12th which is Chris Hurst. The other tossups, I think, you know, we have six toss ups right now. The other three toss ups, I would say, 75, you know, this is still a gun to my head situation because I mean, I'm eliminating toss ups, but I think the 75th flips and

Michael Pope

This is the Roz Tyler seat, correct?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Roz Tyler, that's correct. And then the other seat, I think, being forced to pick here, you know, eliminating toss ups, flips, I think is Houses District 10, which is Wendy Gooditis. And then I think Alex Askew holds on in the 85th. I think Democrats, in our final forecast, they will either...they will find themselves close to 55%, which is the threshold for tilt Democratic rating, or they will be just be under it. So the House is going to be either a toss up, but just barely a toss up, or just barely tilt Democratic.

Thomas Bowman

I see the losses somewhere between zero and two, for the Democratic Party. I see Roz Tyler as an open question, and Josh Cole as an open question. Those particular districts is where momentum is slowest for the Democratic Party in those areas. So that's all for this episode. Hit us up on social media or get in touch at transitionvirginia.com. There you can check the transcript for this episode and find links to support the show on Patreon. Special thanks to Emily Cottrell, who transcribes every one of these so they're accessible to everyone.

Michael Pope

Thanks for listening to Transition Virginia. If you like what you heard, give us a five star review. It helps other people find the show. We'll be back next week. So subscribe to the show so you don't miss a single episode.