Michael Pope

Welcome to the podcast we're still calling Transition Virginia for now. I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman.

David Ramadan

And I am David Ramadan.

Michael Pope

Later in the podcast, we'll talk to the State Director of Conservatives for Clean Energy, Ron Butler. He'll tell us about a new poll in the race for Governor that also reveals what Republicans are thinking about environmental issues. This poll might actually surprise you. So you're gonna want to stay tuned for that. But first, Thomas, this is the part of the show where we welcome our new Patreon. So, tell us, who do we have this week?

Thomas Bowman

Well, Michael, I am sorry to report that we don't have any new Patreons this week.

David Ramadan

What?

Michael Pope

What?

David Ramadan

Don't tell me all the listeners don't know what a good thing they've got going on here? Come on, guys.

Michael Pope

I guess they don't.

Thomas Bowman

Maybe next week?

Michael Pope

You know, maybe we should have like a fun drive?

David Ramadan

Like when NPR stops reporting news and spends a week begging for money?

Michael Pope

Kind of like that. Sure.

Thomas Bowman

Or when Jerry Lewis would have his telethons?

Michael Pope

Yeah, I guess it would be kind of like that. But of course, this being Transition Virginia, it would kind of be its own thing. In fact, if Transition Virginia had its own fun drive, its own fun drive, It would sound something like this.

Steve Artley

I want to talk to you for a minute about something of vital importance. Transition Virginia is not just your favorite podcast. It's also a lifeline for legislative staffers in need. Case in point, meet Billy. Billy is a staffer for one of our state senators. Little Billy here is suffering from a malady that's running rampant throughout our country's legislative institutions. Billy actually believes Critical Race Theory is being taught in third grade schools throughout the area. Poor Billy. If he only have listened to the Transition Virginia episode on the subject, he would know better. So consider the plight of all the little Billy's out there in the Pocahontas Building. Billy's enlightenment depends on you. Your contribution to Transition Virginia can make all the difference. You can become a patron for as little as $3 a month. It's easy. Click on that orange Patreon button on the website. Please, save Little Billy. Do it for those Little Billy's of America.

Michael Pope

Do it for those Little Billy's of America.

David Ramadan

You guys are bad.

Thomas Bowman

I wonder exactly who he had in mind.

Michael Pope

Oh, that was my friend, Steve Artley, the award winning editorial cartoonist and button pusher, and he's pushing some buttons today. Thank you, Steve Artley for that bit. I think the phones are ringing, right? I mean, clearly, that's gonna that's gonna pull in all the cash, right?

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, it better. And yeah, thank you, Steve Artley. That was great. And, you know, if it didn't move you, do you even have a soul?

Michael Pope

Probably not. Okay, well, let's get on to the news. We got some pushback to something that happened on the podcast last week that was critical of the funding formula for the stimulus money for HVAC upgrades. Now, I mentioned that some groups were upset that the funding formula lacked equity because it didn't account for how affluent, or not affluent, a school system was in calculating the matching funds necessary to upgrade the HVAC's. Now, essentially, Petersburg would be required to finance half of the cost of those HVAC upgrades, and Loudoun would also be required to finance half of the cost. That matching fee struck many people as odd, especially because most of the way money flows in the world of education is tied to the local Composite Index. Wealthier school divisions usually have to contribute more, so that poorer school divisions can receive more. But the funding formula for these HVAC upgrades, they don't work that way. Struggling divisions have to cough up the same matching funds as wealthy divisions. Now one of the people who is disappointed in the funding formula is the Superintendent of Schools in Bristol, Keith Harrigan. I talked to him about the funding formula this week. And this is what he told me.

Keith Harrigan

In Bristol, we're a very high poverty school division, our locality does not have the capacity, like some other more affluent school divisions have, to provide money for school infrastructure. Just to give you an idea of how bad it is here in Bristol, the newest school that we have was built in 1974.

Michael Pope

And so he says, "Investing $200,000 for a $200,000 match, at a school that'll probably be closed in a few years, is not an ideal scenario." So why did the Governor do it this way? The Governor's Office says they did in fact build equity into the funding formula. And here's the governor's argument. "All the school divisions that are able to afford the matching funds will receive a minimum of $200,000, regardless of how many students they have. That way smaller school divisions won't be punished by the per pupil funding formula." So they say they are building equity into the program by helping small school divisions like Falls Church. Critics say they should be helping jurisdictions like Petersburg. David Ramadan, I want to go to you. You represented the wealthiest jurisdiction, not only in Virginia, I'm pretty sure Loudoun County is like the wealthiest county in America, right? Wasn't Loudoun, often the victim of the other side of this, where Loudoun was frequently contributing more and receiving less?

David Ramadan

Absolutely. The Composite Index has always been not just for Loudoun. And we've fought that year after year, the delegation from Loudoun, both Republicans and Democrats have always worked with changing that. The bigger counties, because there's a higher income level, ends up getting less money that comes in from the federal, and we're not talking in dollars here, we're talking in percentage, which means then that they end up putting a much higher percentage than others. Look, when Petersburg, or any of these smaller localities, put in $200,000, we're talking Loudoun is going to put up millions, because we have a huge population, a bigger number of schools. So it is equitable.

Michael Pope

Well, just to be clear about the way the funding formula works, is it's a per pupil calculation. And so Loudoun would be paying the cost of the matching fund for the cost per pupil.

David Ramadan

And that makes me very fair, you got 500 pupils, you match for those, you got 300,000 people with 80,000, pupils, and then you pay- you match for those. I think that's very fair.

Michael Pope

What about cutting Petersburg a break here because they're struggling?

David Ramadan

But here's the point, this was done by the Governor's Office, and by the House Appropriations to make sure the smaller localities get money. And I'm going to make a general statement here. Anything that comes out with Luke Torian's signature on it, I can blindly say it is equitable. There is no way Chairman Torian is going to let something go through that's not equitable in any way, shape, or mean to any locality. He is one of the most sensitive person to this issue in the General Assembly and has done a great job in working these numbers. So anything comes out of Chairman of Appropriations, that he put a signature on it, is going to be equitable.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah. I mean, I would also say that there's a victim of just not quite having enough money to do the job right. So the Commonwealth has to, and some of the other organizations that are knocking the government for or the legislature for doing it the way they did it. I mean, I understand the criticism. But to be fair, the localities like Petersburg, they deliberately wrote it in a way so all of the new funds, 90% of it, go to high poverty school districts. And so it may not be the perfect way to do it, because of course, Petersburg and low income school districts really need every dollar that they already have, like those budgets are already accounted for and they can't just add for this one to one match, and I understand their frustration, but the reality is, there was not enough money to begin with in order to do it the right way.

Michael Pope

So I hear what you're saying, Thomas. And I've heard this argument from people in the House Budget world. So if I'm hearing the argument, right, it basically says something along the lines of, "Gosh, Petersburg, you sure have gotten a lot of money from round one, two, and three of all this federal spending. Certainly you can afford to pay half the cost of the HVAC upgrade. Right?" And that's not a message that's received well in Petersburg.

David Ramadan

It may not be received well, but it's a fact.

Michael Pope

Well, you know, the Special Session wasn't just about spending federal stimulus cash. There was another reason they were there, lawmakers were there to elect judges. Now they elected so many judges, they basically filled half the bench of the Appeals Court. Now, when we recorded our last episode with Brad Kutner of Courthouse News, we did not yet have any names of all those eight judges they were about to appoint. The identity, the names of those judges, they were a closely guarded secret until Monday afternoon, then the judges were interviewed on Tuesday morning, then lawmakers voted them into office Tuesday afternoon. So there were about a dozen hours on the clock between the time their names were publicly released, and the time that the title, "Appeals Court Judge," could be added to their business cards. David Ramadan, is this any way to elect judges, keeping their names secret until the last possible moment?

David Ramadan

It is the Virginia way. This is a prerogative of the majority, always has been, always will be. And this is, regardless of who the majority of minority is, minority is always going to call foul, the majority is going to be fine. And vice versa. This has been done in the past by both Republicans and Democrats. This is just a fact of life how Virginia does judges. I'll take this over electing judges seven days a week, 365 days a year. When you talk about names unknown, what's there to be known, they've been they've been vetted. Everybody knew that the majority in this case, the Democrats, are going to pick the judges.

Michael Pope

What would you say to the idea of naming a justice to the United States Supreme Court with 24 hours notice, public notice, about the name and identity of that judge? And then suddenly, within 24 hours, that person is sitting U.S. Justice? Would- would that sit well with you?

David Ramadan

It was almost done. And if anybody had 60 votes in the Senate, they'll do it as well, on either side of the aisle. That is how we do judges in Virginia, it is a prerogative, I'll tell you how it works. It's the prerogative of the majority in general. And then it's the prerogative on on statewide judges, it's simply the majority is going to make it, and the decision is, or the fight really, is between the House and the Senate. It's never between majority and minority. I mean, the minority is out of this this game altogether, regardless who the minority is. The fight has always been between the House and the Senate. And even when the names are known, nothing was guaranteed until the 11th hour. If you go back to two regular sessions, when you're appointing judges, that judges bill waits till the last minute, because there's always horsetrading, and the horsetrading is always happening between the House in the Senate. If it is a local judge for a certain district, it is a prerogative of the majority of that delegation within that area. And that's- it's a rule of thumb, that's always been played that way. There have been judges where you get 20 people that have been named, they've been named for a month, they all go in front of Courts Committee in the House in the Senate, and all of that is part of the show. However, everybody knew, behind the scenes, who is that judge that's going to be named for that position, because the majority within that area had agreed on that person. Now, if there is a flaw in the person, if there is a problem vetting that person, then that's different. However, the Bar Association is normally involved. Most of the time, these are people that have applied and got vetted, and there's no issues on him individually. So for as long as there is no scandals on him individually, for as long as there's no disbarment somewhere on that person, it's the prerogative of the majority in Virginia. That's how it was. That's how it will be. And I'll still take that any day of the week, 365 days a year, even though I may disagree, and I probably do with many of the appointees on liberal policies, but that's the way it works.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, and Michael, while it seems shady, this is really one of those situations where it's so esoteric that you're damned if you do and damned if you don't, because think a few years ago, when the Republicans had appointed a guy named Judge Alston to the bench, who was gay, and that name was out there, in the public, circulating, and there was enough time for him to no longer be a judge based off what that public upheaval was. The scandal, quote, "scandal," was he was asked whether he believed someone engaged in commerce could turn away, lesbian, gay, or transgender customers if serving them would conflict with that business persons sincerely held religious beliefs. And of course, Judge Alston said, "Nobody should be denied equal privileges that we all enjoy under the law." And that was it. They did not want him appointed. So you've got issues when you make it a public circus, frankly, that don't really serve anybody's interest. It certainly didn't serve the interests of the LGBT communities for Alston or Tracy Thorne-Begland, and it didn't serve the interest of justice, you know, and doing the right thing. And it didn't really serve the interests of the majority party or the minority party, because it just derailed everything in both of those circumstances. So there is a huge cost to publicizing these names in advance. And it's so esoteric that only people like you, Michael, actually care that these are 11th hour reveals.

Michael Pope

All right, I see I'm losing the room here. So I'm gonna move on to the next topic, which is your voicemails! You too can send us a voicemail to Transition Virginia, just record some audio of yourself and send it to us. It's really actually that easy. The voicemail today comes from friend of the podcast, Jess Brown. She has some thoughts about one of my favorite episodes, the one from back in November when we talked about the Right to Work Law.

Jess Brown

What stood out to me the most from the episode was the fact that strong unions improve worker safety standards. As frontline workers, such as child care workers, grocery store workers, or health care workers, cope with the fourth wave of the pandemic, the Virginia General Assembly can show workers how much they value their contribution to the community by repealing the Right to Work Law.

Michael Pope

Okay, so, the Right to Work Law prevents employers from compelling employees to pay union dues. It was signed into law back in the 1940s by Governor Bill Tuck. Now here's some audio of Governor Tuck speaking to a joint assembly in 1947.

Bill Tuck

Labor unions have served a useful purpose in our economy. And no doubt will continue to do so. And why government keeps them within that profit field. What if our system of government will all it's blessings is to survive? The existing economic dictatorship imposed by ruthless union leaders must be good.

Michael Pope

Ever since the days of Governor Tuck, labor groups have wanted to get rid of this thing. But Democrats and Republicans have stood in their way. Now back in early 2020, right before the pandemic, I cornered Governor Northam at the Executive Mansion and asked him about his position on repealing the Right to Work Law. He tried to change the subject and list off other things on his labor agenda, so I stopped him, and I asked him to please answer the question. This is our interaction.

Ralph Northam

Let's do things that are realistic in the Commonwealth of Virginia this year. And that's why I'm listing some things that are realistic.

Michael Pope

Well, lots of people would say that is realistic.

Ralph Northam

Well, we will have that discussion if and when it gets to my desk.

Michael Pope

If and when it gets to his desk, turned out to be never, never got to his desk. And you kind of get the sense the Governor really knew that all along, which is why he tried to change the topic of conversation when I asked him about it. Now flash forward to earlier this month. I'm standing in the parking lot of Port City Brewing in Alexandria, where Terry McAuliffe is holding a campaign event. The DNC bus had stopped at the brewery and I thought about doing a story about the launch of the bus tour. But then I thought that's really a snoozer of a story. So instead, I decided that I would wait until the gaggle, and ask McAuliffe about his position on repealing the Right to Work Law. Now, while I was waiting, I got into a somewhat heated discussion with one of McAuliffe's people who was trying to persuade me that the General Assembly would never pass a bill overturning Right to Work. So it was a mistake to do a story about it because it would never happen. I responded that the Senate election was only a few years away in 2023, and that the next Virginia Senate might not have Dick Saslaw or Chap Peterson or Dave Marston. He said, I might not want to say that too loudly because Senator Marston was at the event. I said in year three or four of McAuliffe's term, a Senate that did not have a Senator Marsden might actually put a bill repealing the Right to Work on his desk. So I probably should not have been surprised when McAuliffe's press people tried to prevent me from asking a question during the gaggle. They said they would limit the gaggle to two questions. Then they called on two other reporters. Then they tried to get McAuliffe out of there before I could ask the question about the Right to Work. I was able to get the Governor's attention. He motioned toward me, indicated that he was going to listen to my question. So I'm going to play the sound of this. At the beginning of the sound clip you'll hear one of McAuliffe's people trying to end the gaggle and stop me from asking my question, but I barreled through and asked it anyway and this is that interaction.

Governor, can I ask about labor issues? So quick question about the Right to Work. So labor groups, of course, would love to see a repeal of the Right to Work. A future General Assembly might put that on your desk. I'm curious about what you would do, and more importantly, do you think it's a waste of time to talk about what you might do, if that bill lands on your desk?

Terry McAuliffe

Listen, I've said all I'm going to focus on the things that can actually get done. I have a huge list. As you know, I have 153 pages, 18 policy proposals, of what I want to do in Virginia. Right to Work, cannot get out of the Senate can't get out of the Committee, and it actually got to the House and was defeated 85 to 13. So what I'm going to spend my time focused on are things I can get done. I want to see the minimum wage 15 bucks by 2024. I want paid sick leave, I want family medical leave, and I want paid hazard faith.

Michael Pope

This is an issue that McAuliffe clearly would rather not talk about. He doesn't want to talk about Right to Work, because he doesn't want to alienate labor groups who contribute to his campaign, and also provide lots of volunteer campaign workers. He also doesn't want to alienate the business community, and you get the sense he's not really for repealing the Right to Work anyway, or else he would be talking about it. I think he may have once said, on a zoom call or something, that he would sign it if it got to his desk. But he certainly didn't say that when I asked him that question. David Ramadan, explain the politics of Right to Work and how they are influencing the Governor's race?

David Ramadan

Right to Work is very important to the business community in Virginia. And it's important for the business and standing of the Commonwealth of Virginia. It has been and continues to be just like other things are important for businesses today. When you have a business, that is number one in the nation to do business, two years in a row as we just got voted, part of that is Right to Work, and my prediction, regardless of some changes in the Senate, will continue to be that Right to Work will not come out of the House or the Senate, even if there are some changes in a couple of years.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, Michael, the reality is, it's very unlikely to get to his desk, and Terry McAuliffe, like a lot of people of his generation, and way of thinking, are a victim of a lot of the propaganda that's gone out about what Right to Work is and isn't. And this is one of those things where history is on the side of the labor groups. And momentum is also on the side of these labor groups, frankly, and you're right to point out to Terry, that 2024 might have a very different Senate. But he's more focused on the election in 2021. And Democrats have done this a lot. They they make calculations that we don't want to piss off the business community, who mostly votes Republican by the way. They don't want to piss off the business community on Right to Work repeal, because we don't want them spending their money to elect Republicans against us. But you know, what they're so focused on the top, they're forgetting how many more people work for those businesses. And so one thing that Democrats are deathly afraid of right now is one, they're having trouble raising money, which they would be able to do had they empowered unions early on, when they took the majority. And then two, they're forgetting that they need to give voters a reason to come vote for them in November. It's not going to be enough just to say the other guy reminds you of Donald Trump, because while the statewide election officials might make it over the hump, we could very well lose the House, and then all of their agendas are out the window. So you have to give your own people a reason to excitedly come out and vote for you on election day. And that is the piece of calculus that he's missing. And people under 30, specifically, really support labor unions. And we also have trouble getting people under 30 to come out and vote. And it's because they're not inspired by people campaigning at the top of these tickets.

Michael Pope

Thomas, you said McAuliffe doesn't want to alienate the business community, even though those people typically vote Republican. David Ramadan, I'm wondering if that might be true in the future. Is it possible the Republican Party has alienated itself from the business community? I mean, I know Terry McAuliffe is clearly making a play for the business community and he wants their support. And even his unwillingness to answer my question about the Right to Work Law is indication that he wants their support. Is it possible that the Republicans might be losing the business community?

David Ramadan

Look, Thomas is correct, if we're looking historically. However, things have changed since last year. And we're watching this closely at the Schar School of Government, where we're looking at the national sentiments and how that may affect Virginia. The national sentiment has changed. We've noticed that the Republicans in Congress have taken on the business community, especially big business, especially IT, and Facebook, and Google, and other big companies that have played, or they believe, at least Republicans in Congress believe, that have played political games against them. I don't think that's the case they did it. And that makes the business community up for grabs. And I think it is smart for any political candidate to jump out and get it, specially candidate like former Governor McAuliffe, who is who is a jobs candidate, who built his last run on creating jobs and now building his next term on building back Virginia and bringing in more jobs and so on. So it is a smart play to to go after the business community, I think that vote is up for grabs. And I think Right to Work is important here. But in general, let's keep something in mind. The role of a candidate, as I tell my students all the time, is to worry about the upcoming election, not an election two years from now, not three years from now, like the earlier issue that we talked about where Thomas told you the only person who cares about this is you, the only people that care about two elections from now are politicals, right? People like you and me, who sit down and analyze this. But that's not the role of the candidate. The role of the candidate is to win this election. And his or her job is to make sure that they're on the ballot with 51% in November, on the first Tuesday of November. So what happens two years or four years from now, what happens when Scott Surovell is Majority Leader in the Senate, or Minority Leader in case the Republicans pick up a couple seats-

Michael Pope

I just heard a prediction.

David Ramadan

...is not what's going to happen, or what's gonna worry or what's going to be on the calculus for any candidate this November. That's for two years from now to worry about.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, and I just want to reiterate, Michael, just how much trouble that the Democratic candidates this year are having trying to raise money because they took the majority, and help us keep the majority is not as compelling of a fundraising email, as help us take the majority. And Bloomberg is gone now. All those big money faucets are gone. Now they've moved on to Texas, they moved on to North Carolina. And the reality is had the Democratic Party empowered their historical allies, labor unions, they would have had all of these years in the Trump era, to build up their strength to one, mobilize people to help get these Democrats reelected, and two, 10 cents per every union man hour goes to their political budget. And so that is really what the businesses who traditionally support Republicans are afraid of, they don't want their workers contributing to political candidates that the business itself doesn't support to be at loggerheads. And so what the Democrats could have done was to create a pool of money that they would have been able to rely on that isn't Dominion, that isn't Michael Bills, that isn't out of state rich donors. It is the people who live in their own districts, the people who they should be trying to activate. And when those people have more money, they have more money to spend at other local business establishment. So all boats lift when you raise the tide. So this was a huge mistake on the part of the Democratic Majority, when they took over both Chambers back in 2018. And now you're paying the price.

Michael Pope

They didn't want to do it though, Thomas.

Thomas Bowman

I know they didn't want to do it, because they were also afraid.

Michael Pope

They wanted to be pro business. You know, what you frequently hear the Speaker of the House say is that Virginia can be pro worker and pro business. And so they're trying to thread this needle. And so sort of that's that's where they are, they didn't think that was the smart course of action. Let's throw it to the David Ramadan. Do you think they've been successful in threading that needle of being pro worker and pro business?

David Ramadan

I think that is that is still up in the air and is still up for grabs. However, I wholeheartedly agree Virginia can be both pro business and pro labor. I think it's a smart play for the Speaker to push towards that direction and the current leadership in the in the majority. However, there's something very important that we skipped here, Michael. What are you doing cornering the Governor and parking lots? This is this is this is just wrong, man. You got to take it easy on the Governor.

Michael Pope

This is my job. You know, this is I...

David Ramadan

Just not at the corner of the parking lot.

Michael Pope

He was doing a gaggle. So I mean, it's not like I literally cornered him. He was in the parking lot, so he could have run in the other direction, but he actually chose to stand there and answer my question, which you can't say for every candidate. Okay, well, let's take a break. When we come back-

Thomas Bowman

Wait, hold up. We didn't discuss the statewide political campaign that attacked you personally.

Michael Pope

But you know, Thomas, I actually have a lot to say about that. But I think I'm gonna save that for the Patreons.

Thomas Bowman

Well, this seems like as good a time as any to announce we're rolling out premium content available only to Patreons. So go to the website, transitionvirginia.com, hit the orange button, and become a friend of the podcast.

Michael Pope

Okay, so coming up next, we're going to talk to the State Director of Conservatives for Clean Energy, Ron Butler. He's going to tell us about a new poll in the race for Governor. And the poll also reveals what Republicans are thinking about environmental issues. We'll be right back.

Thomas Bowman

Hey, look, Transition Virginia has another voicemail. And this one's from Richard Crouse. Let's see what he's got to say.

Richard Crouse

This podcast is so jacklegged that John Frederick's radio show is five steps above it.

Thomas Bowman

Nevermind, it's just another crank call.

Michael Pope

We want your voicemails and it's easy to do. Just launch the voice memo app in your smartphone, record a reaction to something you've heard on the podcast. It's that easy.

Thomas Bowman

Here's something you like, something you don't like. Perhaps you've got a question about something you heard.

Michael Pope

Send the sound file from your smartphone to TransitionVApodcast@gmail.com. We might even play your voicemail on the air.

Matt Colt Hall

Hey, y'all, this is Matt Colt Hall and you're listening to Transition Virginia, with my friends, Michael Pope and Thomas Bowman.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about a new poll that shows former Governor Terry McAuliffe leading Republican Glenn Youngkin by five points. The poll was released by Conservatives for Clean Energy. And it has a lot of interesting numbers showing what voters think about Clean Energy in Virginia.

Thomas Bowman

So here to help us dig into this poll, and what we can learn from it, is the State Director of Conservatives for Clean Energy. He's a former political director for the Republican Party of Virginia. Ron Butler, thank you for joining us.

Ron Butler

Thank you for having me, guys. I appreciate it.

Michael Pope

Okay, so we get a lot of polling data in Virginia politics from major academic organizations like Christopher Newport University or George Mason. We don't often see polling data from groups like Conservatives for Clean Energy. So tell us a little bit about this poll.

Ron Butler

Sure. We decided to do this now, it was done the last week of July, because there weren't a lot of polls out there. And we thought that if we did a poll now, and we asked the Governor's question, we asked Biden approval, that it would actually get noticed. We have done polls, our organization, since 2016. We did not do one in 2020. But 2016, 17, 18, 19, we have we have done polling before. But this being a Governor's election, and the lack of any kind of polls out there, we thought we would do it. So we retained a firm called Coefficient to do the poll. They are a newer polling firm. They've been in business for a couple years. They do polling for the House Republican Caucus in Virginia for a number of candidates in Virginia. A number of candidates nationally. They were also the pollster for CPAC, Conservative Political Action Conference, at their last meeting that they had just a month ago. So they are a a Republican pollster, they have some credibility with conservatives, and we pick them because, obviously, our organization is trying to reach conservatives. And we wanted a pollster with some credibility, with that audience.

Thomas Bowman

You know, that makes sense to me. And one of the things that we're seeing is that McAuliffe is leading Youngkin by, what is it Ron, five points?

Ron Butler

Yeah our poll shows it 45 for McAuliffe, 40 for Youngkin. Which is, if you look at some of the polls that were done a few months ago, similar to some of those polls. There's a few that I've seen that have it a little closer. I've seen some others that have not been publicized in the past week that have the race, maybe one or two ticks closer than that, but similar to similar to these numbers.

Michael Pope

Okay, so your poll has McAuliffe leading with suburban voters, urban voters, and women. Youngkin is leading with men and rural voters. Overall, McAuliffe has a five point lead over Youngkin, which is not a huge lead, especially considering the margin of error for this poll is 3.6%. That's a really slim lead for McAuliffe. Is that essentially really good news for Glenn Youngkin?

Ron Butler

I think both candidates could look at this poll and point to good things. For Youngkin, the fact that Terry McAuliffe was Governor for four years, that he's well defined in this state, yet, he's only at 45%. That's the good news for him. The other I think, good news for Youngkin in this poll, is that the Biden job approval was only at 47%. Back in Obama's first term, 2009, when Bob McDonald won the state, overwhelmingly, Obama's job approval, and the direction the country, was far higher than that. So right now, people are becoming more pessimistic in this state. And I don't think that that helps Terry McAuliffe. I think it's pretty hard for Terry McAuliffe to get those extra points to get to 50%. Now for Glenn Youngkin, his challenge is that he's really not cutting in to the suburban areas that he needs to to win this race. The other thing that I found interesting in this poll is that McAuliffe is doing very well among voters 65 and older. That's typically one of the more Republican or conservative leaning segments of the voters. And right now, McAuliffe's in a really good position with these people. The other fascinating thing about this is if you look at people that have kids in school age, people in their 40s, they're also kind of for McAuliffe in this poll. But younger people below that aren't super excited about Terry McAuliffe. So you look at kind of the elections over the past few years in Virginia and Democrats have typically won because there's been a lot of enthusiasm among younger voters, the turnouts been skewed, partially more younger voters turnout, and you don't see that happening right now. They just aren't a big fan, the younger voters, of Terry, but he is doing better among typically more conservative voters. To me, what that means is that Youngkin has an opportunity here, because the people that should be with him, kind of aren't quite sure right now. They should be pretty easy to get back, if he comes up with a good message that appeals to them.

Thomas Bowman

Yet, Ron, you're hitting on something that I actually tell my clients about in my other hat that I wear, as a strategic consultant at Resolute Strategies Group. If you're running for office, you need to give voters a reason to come out and vote for you, specifically. It's not enough to say the other guy is like Donald Trump, because there's only one Donald Trump, and it's not enough to say nothing at all, right, if you're Youngkin, who has declined, most times, to say where he is on a given issue. And so both of them, you have identified an incredibly popular, bipartisanly popular, policy area with solar and renewable energy, that two out of three people support.

Ron Butler

Yeah, it's an area that Youngkin, in the past, has said very positive things about. So I'm hoping that he'll look at this and say, "Yeah, these are things that I agree with, and that I can support." I know Terry McAuliffe supports a number of these things, things as well. But it's certainly a way that he could reach into some of the younger age segments, Glenn Youngkin I'm talking about, and increase his numbers there. He's already competitive among those, those age segments. I think he could he can make up some ground in this thing, if he were to focus on that.

Michael Pope

Yeah, I'm curious about what we know about where Glenn Youngkin stands on a lot of these issues that are important to your organization. So he's never been elected to anything. He doesn't have a record that we can go look at like any other elected official, and getting him to take positions on things has been difficult during this campaign. So what do we know about where Glenn Youngkin stands on these issues that are important to Conservatives for Clean Energy?

Ron Butler

When Youngkin was at Carlyle Group, he was the co CEO of that organization. He oversaw some of the energy portfolio for that company that was a large international investment firm. And he gave an interview to Bloomberg in 2019, talking about the promise of renewable energies internationally, and that it was a big and important part of their portfolio at The Carlyle Group. So we know from that interview, it was an extensive interview, televised interview, and when we have a story about that on our website, cleanenergyconservatives.com. So we know that he one, has experience in this industry. And we know two, that he was very positive about the future for the industry. I've reached out to his campaign, and I hope to in the in the next month or so, talk to them more about some of the specifics in Virginia, with regards to Clean Energy, but I feel confident, as far as he is concerned, that he is pro renewable energy, just based on his extensive experience in business.

Thomas Bowman

I find it interesting that President Biden's approval rating was mixed and reflected the polarization that's across the country, and in Virginia, and you having people who identify as liberals 77% approve, and people who identify as conservative 81% of them disapprove. But there's something interesting here in this data that show 57% of moderates approve of the job Biden is doing. What clues should that give Youngkin regarding, especially Biden's thrust toward renewable and clean energy, and all of the things that your organization stands for?

Ron Butler

Well, let me just give you a little my read on kind of what a moderate is, in Virginia. People that call themselves moderate in this state, largely tend to be more on the Democratic side of the spectrum. We did ask him this poll, what party are you on the ideological spectrum? And we did not publish the partisan data in this poll. But I will tell you that people that are independents, who call themselves independents, tend to be far less favorable to Biden, and McAuliffe in our poll. So I want to just have that caveat in here, that the Democrats in this poll, kind of are in the moderate slash liberal camp, and almost all the Republicans fall in the conservative camp. And that's why you kind of see these numbers here. To me, the more interesting thing for Youngkin in this poll, is that in the suburban areas, which have tended to be the areas that have decided elections, he's not performing where he really needs to be to win this election at this point. He's got room to grow there, I think. But right now, he hasn't really struck a chord, I think, with the voters in those areas. So there obviously are things in this poll that are very popular among suburban voters. They like solar, they like clean energy overall, they're very supportive of property rights, and the rights of farmers and landowners to install solar. And you know, one of the reasons we do polls like this is just so our group is a 501, c three, it's an educational group, we want to educate people on public opinion. And this is, I think, one way for us to do it. Put something like out here publicly, so everybody can see it, Democrats can see it, Republicans can see it, see where people stand on it, and hopefully adopt some positions that we support.

Michael Pope

Now, you just mentioned localities and the actions they're taking against land owners that want to put solar panels on their property. Now, I know that we've seen across Virginia, local governments taking action to prevent land owners from putting solar panels on their property in Augusta County, Culpepper, Rappahannock. We've seen local governments take action to restrict what land owners can do with their property. What's going on with that?

Ron Butler

Well, where most of the action in solar is right now is obviously rural areas, the larger projects, that's where the land is cheaper. And so the solar industry has been going to these counties across the state and working with landowners, who most of them are farmers, some of them are retired farmers, or getting to that age, and discussing with them a solar project for their property. And the property owners are by and large, very, very supportive of this. And so what would happen is right now, in most of these counties, they haven't experienced a solar project before. And so you go to the County Commission to get approval for this and they don't have any experience with that or knowledge of it. There's just some fear, I would call it, in terms of what does this mean for our community. And so some of these counties have been passing ordinances, I think without a lot of real research in it, that severely restrict what a farmer can do, a property owner can do with their land. They have been passing ordinances that have 200 acre per project caps, they've been passing ordinances that say no more than 2% of the land in the county can be used for solar projects like this. And we feel that that right now with an industry that's just kind of getting off the ground, that's in its infancy, that that's really kind of arbitrary, and not really smart, economically, for the county.

Michael Pope

So I'm wondering if you'd like to see a future Governor, or a future General Assembly, take some sort of action to prevent local governments from making these kind of restrictions on land owners in terms of what they can do with solar panels?

Ron Butler

No, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, because I believe in local control. And I think that localities can make good decisions on this. What I don't like is when it's just kind of arbitrary, and they really don't think about it. There's not a lot of discussion about it. There are counties in Virginia, Pennsylvania County and South Side, Halifax, Charlotte, that are much more pro solar. Spotsylvania County, a couple years ago, supported the S power solar facility. It was one of the biggest on the east coast. There was some controversy about that, but they ultimately passed it. The project is up and running this year. And it's a very large project, I think, over 1000 acres, and it's working fine. It hasn't added any traffic. It's not like 1000 house subdivision. Once it's built, it's quiet, it doesn't pollute, there are buffers from the road on these things. So it's a really low impact development. And what we're trying to do is just inform people of that, inform conservatives, specifically property owners, the boards of supervisors, elected officials. But I really don't think it would be productive for the General Assembly to get involved in this at this point. I just think that it's important for localities to have some control of their zoning. And I think that it just wouldn't be wise to politicize this in the General Assembly at this point.

Thomas Bowman

You know, what's interesting, though, about some of the actions that these specific localities are taking in limiting the ability of farmers to have more than a certain number on their property, or limiting the overall solar fields to 2% of the land. This is actually a really interesting way for people in rural areas to make money because they can lease that property to the company that's building the solar panels, right?

Ron Butler

Yeah, it's a very important moneymaker for these landowners. We've talked to farmers in some of these areas that are in their 60s, they want to retire, they don't have anybody in their family that wants to take over the farm. They may have 100 or 200 acres, and a solar company comes to them and says, "Hey, we'll pay you rent to lease your property for 20 years, for 30 years." And that means that these people can stay on the farm, they can keep the farm in their family. So the landowners, by and large, are incredibly favorable toward this. That's not really where the problem is coming from. It's just convincing the boards that these people should have a right to do this really low impact kind of development on their farm.

Thomas Bowman

And one of that results of your poll showed just that, people like developments that are solar, but housing developments and industrial developments are viewed as, "Not in my backyard," nimbyism. Can you dive into that for us about your poll?

Ron Butler

Sure. Yeah. We asked a question in the in this poll, which is if you had to choose which would you like to see on 100 acres of land in your locality? What kind of development? And the choices were solar project, housing development, industrial park, or natural gas power plant. And of the respondents in this poll, 60% of them said solar project they'd prefer over the other forms of development. Housing development was 22%, Industrial Park 11%, natural gas power plant only 7%. So what we wanted to do with this question was basically send the message that, "Hey, you can't decide what a landowner can do with his land. If he wants to develop the land, most places, he has the right to do that, to do so." And that solar is actually something that people prefer over these other forms of development. In Spotsylvania County, when the large s power facility was going in, one of the arguments that was presented was that if we don't put the solar project here, then there's going to be 1000s of houses on this property. It'll be clogging the roads, it'll be making the schools more crowded, that solar was a better form of development than a housing development. And this poll clearly shows that's the case. And we added natural gas in there too. Because as you know, natural gas is a, is right now in Virginia, the biggest form of electricity generation comes from natural gas. So there's there's natural gas power plants around the state. And we wanted to just see the contrast that was what was there, and it was almost 10 to one people preferred solar over natural gas power plants.

Michael Pope

Alright, one last question. And we really appreciate your time. So part of your poll talks about changing perceptions, and how people's views about these things might be influenced when they learn new information. And there's part of your poll talks about people learning that these solar panels can provide income to farmers and revenue for schools, and how that changed their perception. Talk about that part of the poll where people taking the poll learned new information, and how it shaped their perceptions?

Ron Butler

Sure, I mean, I'll tell you kind of the genesis of those questions. In the past, General Assembly's, Republicans have been actually very pro solar, trying to get solar sited and brought to Virginia. And when they passed some of these first pieces of legislation, there were some restrictions in their localities, basically saying that, "Hey, you can't tax this. You can't get proffers or concessions from from solar because Republicans, we wanted to promote it. So we didn't want to raise the cost on it." And what we were finding is that that basically meant that there was no real interest, no incentive for these localities to want to support any of that. So recently that changed. And now localities on some of these projects, can can generate income from the solar facilities. And it's more income than they would generate, if the land where, say, in a farm as it is right now. And so we tested this question, and we asked if if we told the people that it can generate millions of tax dollars over the lifetimes, for schools, broadband, in rural areas are making more or less likely to support solar, and it was overwhelmingly 62% more likely, only 11%, less, less likely. And in some of these counties where these facilities are going in, they're very, very small. They may they may have 7,000 people in them, 10,000 people, you know, some areas have have more than that. But if you're talking about a solar facility can bring in $15, $20 million over the life of the project, that's enough to put a new school in in a place, in a very rural place that may have- not have the funds to do it. Or to bring broadband to rural areas that haven't had at this point. So we wanted to just a test that and see if people would respond to that. And they did overwhelmingly conservatives responded positively more to two to one every every segment dead. And the other question we asked was, should landowners be allowed to have the right to build solar on their land? And as I said before, that was a 90/10. That was a 90/10 issue that it shouldn't be restricted just because somebody on the Board of Supervisors doesn't- don't like the way they look. That's typically what we hear is, "Oh, I don't like the way they look. Or, Oh, I like the view shed." And that's never been a reason to deny a project in the past, especially one that doesn't pollute, and that has all these positive thoughts.

Thomas Bowman

So that's all for this episode.

Michael Pope

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Thomas Bowman

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Michael Pope

Read the transcripts at transitionvirginia.com and special thanks to Emily Cottrell for figuring out what the heck we're saying.

Thomas Bowman

Thanks for being on the Transition Team. We're your hosts, Thomas Bowman.

Michael Pope

And I'm Michael Pope.