Michael Pope

Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in Virginia. I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman. Today on the podcast, the Republican statewide ticket. The convention is over and the elimination rounds of ranked choice voting have come to an end. Candidates emerged from the smoke filled back room, and now we know which Republicans will be on the ballot this November.

Michael Pope

There are names that you might not be familiar with. In fact, a couple of names, you might say to yourself, "Wait a minute, they nominated who?" So, who are these people and why are they running? We've got a great panel here to help us understand the ticket and preview the fall election season. We're joined by the Virginia Capitol Bureau reporter for WRIC, the ABC affiliate in Richmond. But you might have also seen her stories all over Virginia from WAYV10 in Norfolk, to WFXR in Roanoke. She's the Vice President of the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Association, Jackie DeFusco, thanks for joining us.

Jackie DeFusco

Thanks for having me.

Thomas Bowman

We're also joined by the Director of the Judy Ford Wason Center, who is also the Dean of the College of Social Sciences at Christopher Newport University. He's returning to the podcast for a second appearance. Quentin Kidd, thanks for coming back.

Quentin Kidd

Great to be on here.

Michael Pope

Okay, well, let's start with the top of the ticket. The Republican Convention chose Glenn Youngkin to be their nominee for Governor, a selection that was kind of an upset considering there were some much better known candidates in the race. Now Youngkin is a former CEO of the Carlyle Group, and he's rich, I mean, he's really really rich, like rich enough to have loaned his campaign more than $5 million. Now after securing the nomination, he appeared at a victory event in Richmond, where he told a capacity crowd of mostly maskless supporters, this.

Glenn Youngkin

Terry McAuliffe and his sidekick, Ralph Northam, have been pursuing a politics of extremism and political division. Instead of focusing on the shared values and common goals that bind us together as Virginians, they pick one fight after another and they intend to divide us. The McAuliffe political dynasty does not exist to serve Virginians. It exists to do the bidding of their far left allies who don't even live in Virginia.

Michael Pope

Now, Jackie, I want to start with you, because you were there in the room for this speech. Give us a sense of what it was like to be there in the room for this?

Jackie DeFusco

Yeah, well, it was definitely not like anything I have really seen during the pandemic, as far as political events go. I mean, there were tons of people in there, definitely more than 100 people, all packed in. And as you mentioned, none of them were wearing masks. However, you know, there was a lot of enthusiasm in the room. Kirk Cox and some of the other opponents were there kind of showing support for Youngkin, after he took the nomination. So I'd say it was, as I said, notably different than any other campaign event I've really been to since the pandemic started, and definitely a notable departure then the way that Democrats have done things.

Quentin Kidd

It's interesting what Youngkin chose to say then, the night of his victory speech, and then over the next day or two after that, so the night of the victory speech was sort of the red meat to the, you know, 25 to 30,000 people who participated in this convention process. And then immediately the day or two after he made comments, for example, you know, he had been asked by reporters over and over again, did he think that Joe Biden was the legitimately elected president, he refused to answer, and then, you know, within 24, 36 hours of this, of winning the nomination, he says, "Well, of course." And so it signaled to me the rapid shift that he recognizes he's going to have to make for a fall election. And also, quite frankly, he's a blank slate, to so many Virginians. I'd be willing to bet you that 98%, 99% of Virginians wouldn't have been able to pick who he was if you gave them three choices. And so he has the opportunity to introduce himself to Virginia voters, and he recognizes that, and it looks like he's trying to do that very quickly.

Thomas Bowman

On the night of the convention, Glenn Youngkin's strategy seemed to be, or his message was, "I know you are but what am I," accusing Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam, who have been anything but extreme, and anything but politically divisive. As being so, it really is kind of a preview, what the accusations are gonna get thrown around. And he's trying to, you know, he trying to throw up a wall so that when he gets accused of supporting the big lie, being a divisive candidate, being extreme, that he can say, "No, it's Terry, it's Ralph, it's the other side who's extreme, not me." This kind of mirrors Republican strategies nationwide at this point, is to accuse the opponent of doing exactly what you're doing, before they can point it out about you.

Michael Pope

Jackie, you mentioned Kirk Cox and several of the other candidates for Governor, the unsuccessful candidates for Governor there, and they were wearing sort of Youngkin stickers and clearly in support of the campaign. One of those candidates who was noticeably not there was Amanda Chase, but Youngkin addressed this in his speech, didn't either was part of the speech that said, "I talked to Amanda Chase, and she wanted to be here, but she's on vacation with her husband. And so you know, I support that." What was the sense there in the room about the Chase part of this story?

Jackie DeFusco

Yeah, that part of the speech definitely stood out to me, notably, because, you know, Chase, while other candidates after, you know, Youngkin did win the nomination, conceded fairly immediately. Chase was notably silent. And obviously, you know, earlier in the race, she has, many times, accused the convention of being rigged. She actually echoed that sentiment in a Facebook post, which has been her only public comment since her loss. And she has also threatened to run as an Independent, obviously. Now, she did say that that would be her course of action if Pete Snyder, specifically won. Jury's still out on whether or not she will go ahead and do that anyway, because obviously, you know, she has not, she has not confirmed that she has ruled that out yet. But interestingly, you know, while she conceded online, she did not specifically say that she supported Youngkin in that Facebook post. She did not endorse him. And again, she didn't rule out what her future plans would be. She said that there would be more to say in the coming days. So it was interesting when Youngkin basically said, "You know, I spoke to Chase on the phone, and she said, 'Glenn, I love you. But I can't be there tonight, because I'm on a family vacation,' you know, Youngkin clearly trying to say and put forward a united front, he actually said, 'You know, the Republican Party from here on out, we'll be moving forward as one team." But again, we've yet to get confirmation from Chase herself on that so there's definitely still a question mark about exactly how this dynamic will play out going forward.

Thomas Bowman

You know, she asked all of her supporters to fill in her name for all of the possible votes on the ballot. And there was some discussion that that would actually hurt her, because when other candidates started getting knocked off, that those ballots would just get thrown out. So did that end up helping her, hurting her, or being neutral? Does anybody have a good sense of that?

Quentin Kidd

I don't, I don't think it hurt or helped her. If you look at where ballots went each round, it's clear that a 10%, 15% of voters of participants in the convention, at some level, put one name, maybe two names down, and then they started, and then they were leaving their ballots blank because the total number of votes counted at the end was fewer than the number of votes that started, but it isn't clear to me that Chase's supporters didn't have names down further down the ballot because, you know, at round five when she was dropped her votes, those votes that she got in round five, went about 50/50 to Snyder and Youngkin. And so, even the candidate that she was most frustrated with, Pete Snyder, got about half of her votes once she dropped. And so I don't know what she gained by telling her supporters that but I don't think it really hurt anybody else. And it was clear from the beginning that she had a solid 23% to 25% of the vote. And she was not going to get much more than that. And that's essentially where she ended up when she when she got dropped.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I'm looking on the VPAP thing, nearly 2000 voters, 1800 of them, had no choice, which means that they voted for a candidate who had been eliminated, or they only voted for candidates who had been eliminated. So 1800 votes more than would have been enough to swing this election one way or the other, had they not done that.

Michael Pope

You know, the word, "blank slate" is often used to talk about Youngkin, but he's not really all that blank. If you watch that speech, that victory speech that he gave, there was quite a number of policy positions there. He wants to reduce taxes on corporations to reduce taxes on people. He wants to ban critical race theory, which is a talking point for Republicans in this election. He he talked about making sure schools have accelerated math. He talked about school choice, he talked about preserving qualified immunity. So I mean, it's...the slate is there for people to see, although that slate is not yet sort of in the minds of people. And so, Jackie, I'm wondering about the sort of filling in the picture here for voters, because Republicans are going to want to define Glenn Youngkin their way, but Democrats are also really eager to make sure they define Glenn Youngkin first. How is this gonna play out? Who's going to be more successful in defining this Republican candidate for Governor?

Jackie DeFusco

Yeah, I mean, there's clearly a really interesting dynamic at play here, because in a press conference, before this rally, Democrats spent almost the whole time basically trying to frame Youngkin as an extension of Donald Trump, especially because, you know, Donald Trump had endorsed him just earlier that morning. Interestingly enough, though, Youngkin didn't mention Trump, or his endorsement once, during his speech in that rally. I actually had a few minutes with him on Zoom earlier in the day, and I asked him, you know, point blank, "Are there any areas where you would separate yourself from President Trump?" And I actually asked him that twice, because he didn't really answer the question the first time. And neither time, he didn't cite any examples of areas where he would say, "I don't agree with him on this." So clearly, I think that he is not trying to put Trump at the center of his campaign, as political analysts might put it. I think he knows it would alienate some moderate voters, but he's also not calling himself Trump in heels is like Amanda Chase is obviously, and standing behind behind him super loudly, at least not until this point. But that said, you know, he's hitting on a number of the same points in his speech that elements of Trump's base obviously found appealing about Trump. You know, he is channeling his playbook in many ways in that respect. He's often repeated, you know, "I'm a political outsider," clearly a very wealthy businessman who has, you know, unlimited resources to bolster his name, you know, saying he's going to make the economy roar by recruiting jobs, and lowering taxes, etc. And, again, hitting on a number of those hot button political issues that you mentioned, you know, getting liberal influence out of schools, slamming Democrats for trying to eliminate qualified immunity and defund the police, also, you know, criticizing Governor Northam's handling of the pandemic and overly restrictive policies. But interestingly enough, it's not entirely clear yet, you know, how voters are receiving this because, for example, I had a one off conversation with some honestly, random guy in the lobby of the Marriott while the ballot counting was happening at convention, and he wasn't related to the convention. But you know, but told me he was a Republican and, and said, you know, he wasn't very happy about the Youngkin nomination, because, you know, he said, and I quote, "He's a Republican in name only." So again, it's not entirely clear that, you know, Republicans, all of them at least, are buying his messaging so far, and we'll see if he can make inroads, you know, with them as this campaign goes on.

Michael Pope

God, I miss conversations with the random guy. That's like one of my favorite things.

Jackie DeFusco

Amen to that, seriously.

Michael Pope

You know, Quentin Kidd, right after Youngkin secured the nomination, I talked to you for the radio, and you said something that resonated with a lot of our listeners, which is that here's a guy who was polling at 0%, just a few weeks before the convention, and then he secured the nomination. How did this happen?

Quentin Kidd

I think the Republicans, probably unintentionally, but they set up a nomination process and a selection process that really lent itself to somebody coming in from the outside who had lots of money, really unlimited amounts of money to spend, who was largely unknown, and that's essentially what Glenn Youngkin did. It is no lie, we polled the Republican, registered Republicans are not registered, but self identified Republicans in Virginia, in February, Glenn Youngkin pulled 0% support. I don't think it's because 0% of people supported him, I think it's because 0% of people knew who he was at that time. Subsequent to our poll being in the field, Republicans require people who are going to participate the convention to register. And so all the candidates then knew what the universe of potential voters was. And the Youngkin team, very effectively, targeted those voters, they probably very effectively polled them. They very effectively targeted them with messaging, they probably very effectively did some focus grouping with them, and he spent unlimited amounts of money communicating with them, to the point where he went from 0%, to in the first round of voting, he was at what 32%, 33%? And so I just think it was a masterful move on his part, to essentially decide when he was going to go all in and try to win this thing. And it was after Republicans made people register to participate in this convention.

Thomas Bowman

So what do we think about what happened to Kirk Cox? Cox is somebody who had planned to run statewide for quite some time. He had always been seen as a ardent conservative, served in the House for nearly 30 years or more. Is this a collapse of Kurt Cox who now has no future in politics? Or are we going to see more of him in the future?

Jackie DeFusco

I have to say I was surprised to see him drop out first. I mean, speaking to political analysts, when Kirk Cox first announced his bid, I think the consensus was that, you know, this guy who has, you know, such a lengthy career in Virginia politics isn't going to enter a race that he can't win, or that he thinks he can't win. Obviously, that's not ultimately what happened. You know, we saw him try to make some inroads with voters who might not have him as their first choice. You know, notably, he put out that campaign ad, asking people to put him down as their second choice. I don't know how effective that was for him. But, you know, I haven't spoken to Cox specifically about what his political future might hold. But I don't know if it potentially just speaks to the base's appetite for a political outsider, and potentially somebody who echoes, you know, Trump's sentiment and being that political outsider businessman, maybe kind of shying away from the establishment Republican that, you know, Kirk Cox somewhat embodies based on his lengthy career? But yeah, I'm not in the business of political opinion. So I, that's as far as my analysis will stretch on that one.

Michael Pope

Well, you know, who is in the business of political analysis, is Quentin Kidd. So let me ask you, here's this guy who's been around for, you know, a generation and, you know, widespread name recognition. And he knows all the players in terms of the, you know, convention politics and getting the delegates. And yet he placed so low, like, what do we make, Quentin Kidd, of the fall of Kirk Cox?

Quentin Kidd

So I think he, Kirk Cox, he's never had both feet in the movement wing of Republican politics in Virginia. He's clearly the classic social conservative, religiously inspired, social conservative, but he wasn't a tea partier, even if he could get along with tea partiers and speak occasionally to the Tea Party demands. He wasn't a Trumper. And so I think part of his problem again, if you, if you the 57,000 people who registered to vote, largely represent sort of the base movement part of of the Republican electorate and Cox never had two feet in that. He probably never had more than two or three toes in that in that. And so, you know, if it was just going to be a contest between Kirk Cox and Amanda Chase, and then, you know, a couple of other unknowns, relative unknowns, Cox probably felt like he had a good chance, in part because he could pay Amanda Chase's unelectable in the general. But once Pete Snyder got in, and once Glenn Youngkin got in, base, you know, sort of movement Republicans really like outsiders, Republicans, generally like business people. And so those two outsiders got into the race. And they really relegated Cox to a third and fourth place status pretty quickly. Early on, I was talking to some Cox political operatives, about how they felt about things. This is before Snyder and Youngkin got in, and they said, you know, they felt really good. That Chase probably was going to win the first round and then Cox would sort of take the lead in round two. And then once Snyder and Youngkin got in, you started seeing Cox actively campaign to be everybody's number two. And I think that was a reflection of of a recognition that his position had moved, visa v Youngkin and Snyder once they got in.

Thomas Bowman

Alright, well, we're gonna take a quick break. We're here at Jackie DeFusco and Quentin Kidd. We'll be right back.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about the Republican statewide ticket and next up is the candidate for Lieutenant Governor. Now you might not have heard much about Winsome Sears yet, but she could end up being the breakout star of this election, in much the same way that E.W. Jackson stole the show back in 2013. Now it's worth pointing out that E.W. Jackson endorsed Winsome Sears before the convention. So did Amanda Chase. So she's the Trumpiest of all the candidates on the ticket this year. Check out how she introduced herself during a forum hosted by the right wing group, Chasing Freedom.

Winsome Sears

I'm so glad to be here with all of you. And I'm so glad that you put together this forum so that we have yet another opportunity to make ourselves known to our fellow Republicans, our fellow conservatives, and as I say, our fellow deplorables. But then we have another word, don't we, the President Biden has now called us Neanderthals. So let's own that. We are now also Neanderthals. How do you like that?

Michael Pope

How do you like that Quentin Kidd? So she represented a House District out there in Hampton Roads a long time ago. Right? Who is Winsome Sears? And what should voters know about her heading into the fall election cycle?

Quentin Kidd

So I think, of the Republican, of the three statewide Republican candidates, she is the movement candidate of the ticket, clearly. She served a term in the House of Delegates, she won and knocked off a longtime Democrat in Norfolk, in 2001, and represented a district in Norfolk for a couple of years, one term I believe, if I remember, right. And then, and she was a she was a star, a rock star at that time, in part because she had knocked off a long standing Democrat in Norfolk, and as a Black Republican woman, and so the Republican Party just sort of elevated her to Rockstar status. She then tried to translate that Rockstar status into a challenge of Congressmen Bobby Scott, and lost pretty miserably to Bobby Scott in a general election in 2004. And then sort of disappeared from politics for a while and then popped up again a few months ago, when she decided she was gonna run for Lieutenant Governor. I believe that she's moved away from Norfolk. She lives in Winchester now. So she's, she's not a Hampton Roads candidate anymore, regionally. So the real challenge, I think, for this Republican ticket, as it relates to Winsome Sears is, does the Republican ticket allow itself to be defined by Winsome Sears? Yes or no. And is Winsome Sears able to thread the needle a little bit better than E.W. Jackson did in terms of speaking to Republican base voters, and then speaking to what we all recognize Republicans need if they're going to win, which is sort of suburban voters in Northern Virginia, and Henrico, and Hanover counties, and in Chesapeake in Virginia Beach, who all things being equal don't really care what parties in power they just want government to do things and do them well. But not do too many things. Can Winsome Sears speak to those suburban voters, and if she can, then elevating her on the ticket is, her voice on the ticket, is probably a good thing. But if she starts going off the rails like E.W. Jackson did, when he was a Lieutenant gubernatorial candidate for Republicans, the challenge is going to be to de-elevate her voice on the ticket or you risk having that ticket splintered and and you know Republicans are going to have a hard time if the ticket is not speaking in a unified way and sort of running as a ticket.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, shout out to Transition Virginia regular, Matt Colt Hall. He called this election for Winsome Sears long before anybody else that I'm aware of. At the time, I remember saying, "There's no way, she's a nobody today." And here she is, the statewide nominee for Lieutenant Governor for the Republicans. So I guess good for her. Jackie, is there anything else that we need to know about Winsome Sears?

Jackie DeFusco

Yeah, well, I'll say, I haven't actually personally interviewed Sears at this point. But obviously, you know, I've seen the elements that she's put online to bolster her campaign. And, you know, some of the things, I think, that just stand out to me, is that she spent a lot of time really selling this story of her father moving to the United States, part of the Civil Rights Movement, and, and how he's saw it as the land of opportunity, despite his race. And you know, at a time where a lot of people are talking about systematic racism, you know, some going as far as to call the United States inherently racist, she's spending a lot of time countering that message and saying, "she (Winsome Sears) still believes in the America that accepted me as an immigrant and gave us a shot at the American dream, and that she was raised in a country where her character mattered more than political party." So notably, though, I think it's somewhat interesting that in a campaign where there's a lot of talk about, you know, criminal justice reform, and police reform, as an African American woman, she has spent very little time, at least as far as her online presence, bolstering any sort of ideas in that area, even though apparently, you know, she, she does work, leading a men's prison ministry. You know, other than that, I think she sold herself in a number of other ways. You know, obviously, she's an ex Marine, she sells her 100% record on defending the Second Amendment, her campaign sign features her holding a very hefty gun. So you know, to those who want to see that, she certainly checks that box. You know, she's a mother with pro life views. She's a small business owner. And so I think she's definitely trying to tap into that angst that many Republicans feel about, you know, what they would consider overly restrictive business measures during the pandemic. Interestingly, too, you know, one of the biggest sections on her website is about election integrity and restoring voter confidence. Obviously, that's been sort of a theme of Republican messaging throughout, you know, this campaign season so far, but it did take up a lot of space on her platform, you know, considering I think, disproportionately, you know, compared to her actual experience, leaning more towards education and school choice, and, you know, talked a lot about voter ID laws and things like that. So to me, those are the things that stood out about her.

Michael Pope

You know, one issue you hear Republicans talk about on the campaign trail a lot is critical race theory. In the previous segment, we talked about how Youngkin mentioned, elimination of critical race theory, in his acceptance speech, the nomination acceptance speech. And if you listen to our previous episode on the Republican candidates for Lieutenant Governor, that was a theme that several of those Republican candidates for Governor talked about critical race theory, and how it posed a danger to Virginia school children. Quentin Kidd, Winsome Sears brings something different to the conversation about critical race theory, which is that she is an African American woman talking about the dangers of critical race theory. What do you make of this issue? Is this an issue that actually is going to resonate with voters? And can she actually bring something new to this conversation?

Quentin Kidd

Well, she certainly can bring something new to the conversation because she's a Black immigrant who has been-

Michael Pope

Actually, can I put you on pause. I've screwed up actually, because I called her an African American woman. She's not an African American woman. She's a Black woman. Actually, I was speaking to a professor at VCU yesterday, who made that point to me is that it's she actually had her immigrant background is from Jamaica. Right? Okay. So if you're from Jamaica, you're not African American, but you are Black. Right?

Jackie DeFusco

So I totally said that earlier, as well. I don't know if there's a way to...

Michael Pope

Yeah, yeah. Well, that's well, I mean, this is actually this is important stuff. And our listeners actually should be aware of the the the language here because this is important...that here's this Black woman talking about critical race theory. And is she going to bring something new to this conversation of critical race theory?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, the short answer to that is yes. Simply because of who she is. She's a, she's a Black immigrant to America. She immigrated to the United States from Jamaica, she's served the country in the Marines, she's highly educated. She, by all measures, she's a she's a good productive citizen in society. And so her voice in that conversation is meaningful for that reason, if not, if no other reason. However, I think I think a lot a lot of things that Republican candidates are talking about right now, simply won't resonate in the fall because you're talking about the difference between speaking to a slice of conservative voters, a very small slice, less than one half of 1%, who are really, deeply a part of a conversation that many, that the rest of America is likely not having about critical race theory, and about election integrity, and things like that. The candidates are going to have to broaden their discussion points in their messages as we go into the fall. They're gonna have to talk about things that the general electorate is going to get motivated by and care about, all while they're also keeping their base motivated. So you'll still hear conversations about critical race theory and things like that. But you're going to have to hear the conversation broaden in the fall to things like, you know, transportation and education and stuff like that. And so I think we'll hear less of this sort of stuff as we, after we get through the, the the lull of the summer, and if there is a Special Session in the General Assembly late July, early August, if that carries on for a week or two. After that we'll start hearing the general election messages. And I would be willing to bet you it'll be more than just things like critical race theory.

Thomas Bowman

Quentin, is there any Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor, who Winsome Sears could flip the script on and potentially beat?

Quentin Kidd

Look, I think of the three statewide elections that we've got this fall, the Lieutenant gubernatorial election is the one where I just am not sure that Democrats feel as comfortable about as, not that they feel comfortable about anything right now, but, you know, I think Democrats, if Terry McAuliffe is the gubernatorial nominee, I think they get that McAuliffe can make a good run of it. He's got resources, he's a seasoned campaigner. Mark Herring, if he's the nominee, or if Jay Jones is the nominee for Attorney General, either one of those they feel like would be a solid candidate. But the Lieutenant Governor field is, is six people who are largely unknown. And so, in that sense, Winsome Sears also is largely unknown, and so if you put two largely unknowns against one another, I think it's anybody's race. Democrats, especially establishment Democrats, clearly think that Hala Ayala is going to be the better candidate in the general election. But that doesn't mean that she would be and that doesn't mean that she'll win the Democratic primary. So I think your question is a good one, because I don't know that anyone has a clear answer to it.

Michael Pope

That is a really good question, Thomas. Like because the LG Democratic primary is so wide open, it's really interesting to think of the Republican nomination actually influencing the choice of Democrats. Jackie, do you think that when Democrats go to the polls in June, that they might actually be influenced by the decision of, "Okay, so who are we going to put up against Winsome Sears?

Jackie DeFusco

I mean, I don't know. I mean, I think, you know, to Quentin's point, I think a lot of these candidates don't have a ton of name recognition to begin with. And, you know, neither does Sears. So I'm not entirely sure that the average voter would, you know, be taking that too much into consideration, personally, but you know, it's, it's not clear.

Quentin Kidd

You know, I will say, Sean Perryman, immediately started talking on social media about how he, as a Black man could be a formidable challenge to Winsome Sears. And so some of these candidates on the Democratic side are trying to pivot already around who they know the Republican nominee is. I haven't seen more a lot of that from other candidates. I would tell you fascinates a matchup that would I would just be fascinated, just because of what it looked like is a, Sam Rasoul versus Winsome Sears. You have a Muslim man from Southwest Virginia, going against a Black woman immigrant, who's a Marine Corps veteran, it would just be a fascinating race that was sort of a window into the new demographics of Virginia.

Jackie DeFusco

I was gonna say, too, I think that there does put some pressure on the Democratic Party to choose, you know, a candidate with a more diverse background in the Lieutenant Governor slot, because I think I, you know, saw somebody tweet out the other day, you know, this ticket does potentially mean that Republicans could have more diversity than Democrats, which would be you know, an interesting twist. So, you know, while I don't know that that will influence voters, I do think it's definitely has to be something that, you know, party leaders are considering at this point.

Thomas Bowman

All right. Well, we're gonna take another quick break. We're here with Quentin Kidd and Jackie DeFusco. We'll be right back.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about the Republican ticket for 2021. And at the bottom of the statewide ticket is the candidate for Attorney General, Delegate Jason Miyares.

Jason Miyares

I've been in the battle for public safety on the front lines, versus a prosecutor or I took violent criminals and predators off our streets. And now as the lonely voice of reason in Richmond. Right, ruling Liberal elite has gotten completely out of control. They've dramatically reduced the amount of time violent criminals will spend behind bars. They push the law and make it possible for criminals to sue police officers in the bankruptcy. They've even watched as violent criminals have been released by a politically motivated parole board in desperate need of reform.

Michael Pope

So it's interesting that Miyares is your establishment candidate. And if you think about the trio here that we've got, we've got one person who is clearly establishment in the AG slot here. We've got a Chase supporter in the LG spot. And we don't have Chase at the top of the ticket, but we have this you know, rich businessman who went from zero to candidate in, you know, nothing flat. So Jackie, Jason Miyares represents this kind of the more Republican establishment part of the ticket. Is that going to help the ticket? Do you think that Miyares will bring in those voters that, you know, might be skeptical of Youngkin being at the top of the ticket?

Jackie DeFusco

Right. I mean, I think either way, Republicans are going to have an uphill battle in all of these races. So I'm not sure if him being an establishment candidate will, you know, inspire more confidence among that traditional base. However, I will say you know, Miyares is definitely one of the Caucuses point people when it comes to talking about criminal justice reform. You know, he is usually the person that they have out front, at least on the House side, talking about the parole board controversy, and, you know, the release of a number of violent criminals without proper transparency, as you know, the Office of the Inspector General has reported. He's often out front, you know, criticizing efforts to end qualified immunity. And so, you know, when it comes to these issues of police reform and criminal justice reform, you know, he's definitely a familiar face for people who follow state politics closely. And so I think, you know, between the name recognition, that could bring some comfort, I think, to traditional voters.

Thomas Bowman

Quentin, is Jason Miyares gonna do better against AG Herring or Jay Jones if they are the nominee?

Quentin Kidd

That's a really good question. I think it would be a different kind of matchup if it was a Miyares/Jones race versus Miyares/Herring race, in part because I think Jones might take Miyares to task, might sort of confront him head on, on some of the things Miyares wants to run on. It looks to me like he wants to run as being sort of Virginia's top cop, which is kind of a traditional way Republican Attorney General candidates want to run and Mark Herring, for two terms, and I think Jay Jones would also continue this, his run more on a social transition and social change, kind of policy oriented Attorney General's Office rather than the top cop. But Herring would be in a position of having to defend things that he's done. I think Jones would be in a position of essentially saying, "I didn't do those things. But if you find problems with them, I'll sort of challenge you on those problems that you find with them and I'll and I'll one up you, I want to do more, in fact." And so I think a Jones/Miyares matchup, would be a matchup that that dealt with a contemporary debate between the two parties, whereas a Miyares/Herring matchup would be a challenge to what Herring has done in a defensive front, on the part of Herring, for what he's done. So I think they would end up being two different kinds of races really.

Michael Pope

Jackie, you mentioned that Miyares is often the person out front talking about the parole board issue, and we heard Miyares, in that soundbite, talk about the parole board issue. I'm wondering what that's going to look like in this campaign. I get the sense that Republicans really want this to be an issue and they've talked about it a lot. I'm not sure it's really broken through to the average voter yet. Do you think this issue is going to be sort of at the top of what voters are thinking about, or is this going to break through to the conversation at all?

Jackie DeFusco

I mean, I think it clearly depends on the voter. I mean, I can tell you as somebody who has covered the issue with the parole board, particularly for TV, which requires, you know, really making this concise, it's pretty inside baseball. I mean, it's difficult to follow along if you haven't been doing so incrementally. It can be a very overwhelming story to take in, other than the headline, you know, talking point of it, I don't know how many voters are really getting into the weeds on this. But, you know, to your point, clearly, Republicans have tried to make this a major talking point across the board. I think we saw Kirk Cox put out a campaign ad, you know, exclusively dedicated to this issue with news clips from across the state. But you know, I think that as far as it being a general election conversation, I think that it could potentially be more of an issue if Attorney General Herring does win out for the Democratic nomination, because one of the main points of criticism that Republicans have thrown at him, they have basically accused Herring of playing a key role in sanitizing, you know, the oseg report, which Herring has denied. But you know, in trying to paint him as being sort of an establishment candidate, you know, who is really steeped in political corruption, you know, as they try to sell that message, it could potentially be more effective against Herring. But again, you know, those are, you know, just accusations and I, again, I'm not sure how much the average Republican voter is really following along.

Thomas Bowman

You know, along those lines, Quentin, is it an advantage to the Republicans to have their statewide nominees selected, about a month ahead of the Democrat's?

Quentin Kidd

It's only an advantage if they make it an advantage. And what I mean by that is, quite frankly, very few people who are going to be voting in November, are paying close attention today. The core of the party faithful on the Republican side, participated in their convention, that was just about 30,000 voters. Democrats are going to have more than that vote in their primary, but that still will represent just the core of the Democratic base. So in the four weeks between the Republican Convention and the Democratic Primary, Republicans have to spend, I think a lot of money, essentially introducing their candidates, putting out into the into the atmosphere, a description of their candidates. And if they don't do that, they've essentially wasted the four week advantage that they have. And I think the Democrats, and you've already heard, you've already seen the McAuliffe campaign start to do this, the Democrats are going to start focusing pretty intensely on defining Youngkin, in particular, Glenn Youngkin, and so Republicans have the opportunity for the next, what several weeks, to define their candidates, while Democrats are still focused on doing their primary. If they waste that time, that's just wasted time on their part.

Michael Pope

So there's one more thing about Miyares that I want to make sure that we hit on, which is embedded in his name, Miyares. He also has an immigrant story, his family is from Cuba. And I'm wondering how that's gonna play out in the election. So we've got one candidate who has an immigrant story from Jamaica, another candidate who has an immigrant story from Cuba. Quentin Kidd, what does that say about the Republican ticket? And how are they going to use that on the campaign trail?

Quentin Kidd

Well, look, anyone who pays attention to politics on the Republican side shouldn't be surprised. I mean, it's not like only immigrants are, you know, favor the Democrats. There are lots of immigrants on the Republican side. I don't know that it's really going to matter at the end of the day. I mean, I think it matters in the sense of introducing yourself as a candidate. And certainly, you know, Jason Miyares has to do that. But I don't know that it gives any particular electoral advantage come November, for either Jason Miyares or Winsome Sears to you know, have a family immigrated from Cuba or being an immigrant from Jamaica. I think at the end of the day, voters are going to vote on on larger debates, policy oriented debates, between the candidates. And if the personal biographical story, in some way amplifies the larger policy debates that are being had, then it helps. Beyond that, I think it's just a part of their biography.

Michael Pope

One more question, which is, Jackie mentioned this, and we also heard Miyares talk about it in the sound clip, which is qualified immunity. The Republicans are against it. And they've been really clear. Youngkin is on the record now being against reforming qualified immunity. In other words, Youngkin is for preserving qualified immunity, forever, is what he said in his speech. And then Miyares, of course, is also for preserving qualified immunity. Jackie, clearly the Democrats want reform here. They have not been able to do it so far. But they're hoping, after this election, they might have some success. How do you think that issue is going to play out on the campaign trail this year?

Jackie DeFusco

I have to say, I think it is absolutely fascinating how much space qualified immunity has already taken up in this conversation, especially given the fact that, you know, moderate Democrats have shut this down, at least twice, just in the last year, you know, amid the greatest push for police reform that, you know, arguably we've seen in modern history. You know, we're seeing this be central to the platform's of you know, everyone, basically, I think all of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, including Terry McAuliffe, which is interesting because Governor Northam hasn't really taken a strong stance on this at all. You know, we saw Jay Jones really fight with AG Herring on this, at one point, saying, you know, he hasn't taken a public stance. Now Herring has and has said, he does embrace, you know, reforming qualified immunity. And clearly, you know, this is an area where Jason Miyares is really trying to hammer down on as well, as well, as you know, Glenn Youngkin. I think, you know, clearly police reform is still top of mind for a number of voters. I think that it's it's right up there with the main talking points with defund the police, which obviously a number of moderate Democrats, if not most Democrats in Virginia, have rejected outright already. So I think it will, I think it probably plays a big role in you know, recruiting people who already are savvy on this issue, who are kind of up to date on the criminal justice reform conversation. That said, it's also an interesting critique, because, again, Republicans are choosing to harp on things that many Democrats have rejected, even as the state Democratic Party just passed a slew of other controversial criminal justice police forms, you know, in the last year. And so, I think it's an interesting choice, though, not a, not a surprising one, considering they are two of the most controversial hot button talking points that we've seen, you know, nationwide, not just in Virginia.

Michael Pope

You know, in the sound clip that we played from Jason Miyares, he wisely did not use the words, "qualified immunity."

Jackie DeFusco

Super wonky.

Michael Pope

Yeah, which is super wonky. And it sort of resonates with listeners to this podcast, but for voters, they'll say, "What?" So the way he said it actually was pretty clever, which is, "They've pushed a law to make it possible for criminals to sue police officers into bankruptcy." So sort of framing the issue without even using the words qualified immunity. Quentin Kidd, is that going to play with voters?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, so I think this is an issue that we are going to hear about, probably until Election Day, and I think Republicans, you know, from Youngkin down, will talk about it for this reason. Republicans and Republican voters are uniformly opposed to any changes to the qualified immunity laws as they exist. Democrats, on the other hand, are largely divided. As Jackie mentioned, you know, the moderate side of the Democratic coalition is opposed to it. The Wason Center had a forum the other day with Senator Tommy Norment and Senator Dick Saslaw, the Majority and Minority leaders, and Dick Saslaw made it clear that as long as he's in the Senate, he's going to be sort of a brake tapper on a lot of things, a lot of issues like this. And so it's great for Republican's candidate to push an issue like this, because when you push something like this, you're going to get a response from the progressive side of the Democratic electorate, and their candidates who want to see the reform. And then you're going to get the moderate side of the Democratic coalition saying, "Well, no, we don't really support that." And so you elevate an issue that your voters care about, and in the process of doing it, that you create a wedge in among Democrats. And so I think we'll hear this, about this issue, from here until Election Day.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah. And speaking of Election Day, over 60%, almost 70% of all likely voters in Virginia, support the Democratic position on the policy issues that get people out to the polls. So while this is a fascinating discussion, on who these nominees are for the Republican Party, you know, the reality is, they are so far from where most Virginians are on issues, they're gonna have to do a lot of work, just to make themselves appealing to voters who have now rejected them three or four election cycles in a row.

Quentin Kidd

Since 2009, yeah. I think in general, if we back up, I mean, we don't even know who the Democratic slate is yet, but if we back up, and just look at Virginia generally, I would call Virginia, a 2% to 4% Democratic state, maybe 2% to 5% Democratic state overall. And so Republicans are going to have to overcome what I would consider to be a slight Democratic structural advantage in the electorate anyway. And then, on a lot of the issues, Democrats in the General Assembly have pushed in the last Session, two sessions, and Special Sessions, there is widespread support among registered voters for those issues. However, not every registered voter turns out and votes in November and so it's really a matter of who turns out to vote and what those voters care about that's going to make the difference in November, between whether we have a Republican Governor or a Democratic Governor, come next January.

Thomas Bowman

So that's all for this episode.

Michael Pope

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Thomas Bowman

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Michael Pope

Read the transcripts at TransitionVirginia.com and special thanks to Emily Cottrell for figuring out what the heck we're saying.

Thomas Bowman

Thanks for being on the Transition Team. We're your hosts, Thomas Bowman.

Michael Pope

And I'm Michael Pope.