With a whole bunch of competitive races in Virginia this way, we narrow things down to the very exciting race for Richmond's mayor. The winning candidate will need to win 5 of the city's 9 districts to avoid a runoff. So who's on the ticket? Michael sits down with The Richmonder's Graham Moomaw to break it all down.

Episode Transcript

Michael Pope  

I'm Michael Pope. This is Pod Virginia, a podcast that's taking a look at one of the hottest races on the ballot. Sure, the second congressional district. It's one to watch in Hampton Roads to see if Democrats can flip a swing seat from red to blue. The seventh congressional district in NoVA is a seat Republicans are hoping to flip from blue to red. But the craziest election on the ballot this year is the race to be the mayor of Richmond. We've got five candidates and a flurry of politics. We're joined by the best guests to help us understand the candidates and their issues. He'll be a familiar voice to listeners of this podcast for his work at the Richmond Times-Dispatch and the Virginia Mercury. His new gig at Richmonder.org, Graham Moomaw, thanks for returning to Pod Virginia. 

Graham Moomaw  

Michael, it's good to be back with you. 

Michael Pope  

We're gonna get into all five candidates. Before we do that, though, Graham, help me understand this crazy Electoral College system that Richmond has. The winning candidate has to get a certain number of districts, and then a runoff might happen. Please explain. How does all this work?

Graham Moomaw  

Sure. In Richmond, the mayor used to just be a ceremonial figurehead type of position. It was just a member of the city council picked to be the mayor. But they weren't actually a strong executive running City Hall. Two decades ago, we switched to a strong mayor form of government. Where the mayor is elected citywide. There was concern about what that switch might mean for Black political representation in a city with a fraught racial history such as Richmond. I think there was justifiable angst over whether, under a strong mayor system, a candidate could win just by running up the score in the wealthier parts of town and ignoring the lower-income, majority-Black parts of town. To address that, the city created this rule where the winning mayoral candidate has to carry at least five of the city's nine political districts in order to win. Because these mayoral races are technically nonpartisan, it's not a system where there's a Republican and a Democrat, and they go head-to-head. It's five Democrats running in what looks and feels like a Democratic primary. Even though they don't have D next to their name on the ballot. If nobody gets to five, if no candidate has enough citywide appeal to get five out of nine districts on election day, we go to a one-on-one runoff in mid-December, right before Christmas. The top two finish finishers have a repeat head-to-head. The runoff system also operates under this five of nine districts rule. Which I don't fully understand because of just two candidates; it seems obvious that one person has to win five. I guess it would be possible for something crazy to happen where each candidate wins four, and there's a statistical tie in the last district. If that happens, I think it will go to a straight popular vote. But yeah, we've never had a runoff before under this system. I think with the field of candidates we have this year, it's definitely a possibility. 

Michael Pope  

One more question about this: Before we get into our candidates. Graham, should we expect a runoff? What's your anticipation? Do you think it's more likely than not we'll have a winner emerge in November? Or are we more likely to see a runoff in mid-December? 

Graham Moomaw  

I think it depends on who you ask. The field is so crowded, and there's no dominant figure. I do think some people are skeptical of the idea that any one candidate can win five of nine. But that's going to depend on what happens over the next few weeks in the run-up to election day: how candidates spend their money. Is there any sort of October surprise that causes one candidate to fall? And slip behind where they are now. I don't know that. That's one of many things about this election that's unpredictable. I don't think there's a strong sentiment one way or the other on whether it'll be a runoff.

Michael Pope  

All right, we'll see. To the candidate. Starting with the candidate who's raised the most amount of money, $830,000. That's thanks in part to hitting it big with developers. He received $40,000 from the Home Builders Association of Virginia. This is a candidate who ran the Department of Social Services in the Youngkin administration and was the Vax czar for the Northam administration. He's got bipartisan cred here. He's currently working as a Pediatric Hospitalist. Although, he's probably putting that on hold during the campaign. Graham tells us about Danny Avula.

Graham Moomaw  

Avula is a longtime public health official. He's lived in the city's Churchill neighborhood for about 20 years. He came to Richmond to go to medical school at VCU. Always wanted to end up here, and has lived in Churchill for a while now. What people know him best for is his involvement in the vaccination effort during the pandemic. As you said, that was a high-visibility role during a crisis. He talks about how that gave him a renewed faith in government. That the government can do things that help people, and arguably save lives. He talks about that as inspiring him to step out of the more bureaucratic type of roles he had been in before and try to run for elected office, to have a bigger role in effectively running big government agencies. I think if he was running statewide or in an area with more conservative voters, his connection to vaccines might potentially be more controversial for him because some people are still upset with the pandemic response. But in a city like Richmond, where its voters are mostly democratic, that's his biggest selling point. It's something people remember. People remember that feeling of getting those vaccines at a time when they were scared they might get sick if they got COVID. He's emphasizing that as the reason why he wants to be mayor. But his service in the Youngkin administration, which he did after his pandemic role. That is a challenge that he has had to overcome. He's running as a Democrat. He says he is a Democrat, but I think being affiliated with Youngkin raises some suspicions about why you take a job in the administration of a Republican governor. Who has done some things that Democrats don't like, particularly on abortion bans and restrictions and some of his LGBTQ policies that have come out of the Youngkin administration? The first two ads that we've seen from Avula on TV have kind of been playing defense on those issues. He's trying to hammer home that he has been a champion for abortion rights in his public service. He's running an ad featuring a young woman who is basically an adopted member of his family who came out as gay and was looking for a safe place to go and became an honorary member of the Avula family. That was his first ad, introducing himself to voters in Richmond. Some people have raised an eyebrow about why are your first ads responding to attacks that people might level at you in the future? I guess their logic is to take some of the wind out of those things and introduce himself to voters on his own terms. Hoping he can defuse some of that by the time everybody goes to the polls.

Michael Pope  

On the campaign trail, Avula is trying to position himself as someone who can fix a broken system. He leans into this message about fixing City Hall. During an appearance on CBS Six in Richmond, Bill Fitzgerald asked all the candidates what this election is about. Avola responded this way.

Danny Avula  

This election is about selecting a leader who can usher in the next chapter of the city. That focuses on building a local government that can rebuild trust. I think for the last 10 to 20, years, people have wanted more transparency, wanted more accessibility, and wanted the top execution of basic services. That's what I'm going to be focused on.

Graham Moomaw  

Yeah, Graham, it's interesting when the candidates are asked what this election is about. All of them have some flavor of the next chapter, right? The current mayor is leaving the scene, and Richmond is going to have its next chapter. Avula is the lone candidate who puts rebuilding trust right at the centerpiece of his pitch to voters. Is that going to work? I think that depends on what voters want. There are a lot of voters who are interested in this change message. We need change at City Hall. We need the basics to work better. We need our tax bills to be correct. We need our water bills to be based on the reality of how much water we're using. I think to that point, him being an outsider, who's never been in city politics, has never been in City Hall before. But who's overseen big government budgets and big initiatives, such as the vaccine response? That may give him some credibility with people who are looking for change at City Hall. He might fit the bill. He might be the guy with the know-how and the bureaucratic knowledge to come in and do a quick cleanup job at City Hall. If voters are looking for someone who has the purest record of adhering to Democratic ideas on things like abortion rights and LGBTQ equality, I think it'd be hard for some of those folks to get over any of their doubts and suspicions they might have about him because of his service in the Youngkin administration. It comes down to do you want an effective manager of city government. Or are you looking for someone who has the best rhetoric on more hot-button social issues?

Michael Pope  

Graham, I saw your report on early voting in Richmond. You had the democratic bigwigs doing the early voting, and you asked them, hey, who did you vote for in the mayor's race? Tim Kaine had an answer that was something akin to, I'm not going to tell you, but I voted for the winner, with a wink and a nod. Graham Moomaw, was Tim Kaine talking about Danny Avula?

Graham Moomaw  

Far be it for me to try and read Tim Kaine's mind. I haven't gone by his house to see if he has any yard signs in his yard. But I don't know. Jennifer McClellan said something similar. She's just still exploring all her options. That's kind of what I expected them to say. They haven't come out and endorsed somebody. They're not just going to spill their guts to me about whom they voted for in the privacy of the voting booth.

Michael Pope  

Why won't they? Actually, you know what, Graham, I think that's kind of weird. Why is it that we've got all these elected officials who are not telling us who they're voting for?

Graham Moomaw  

I agree. That's why I asked the question. I had some people like, Oh, why is it anybody's business who they voted for? Well, they're in the business of politics. I'm asking them for their views on local politics. I think that gets back to the unpredictability of this election. Nobody knows who the front-runner is or who's most likely to win. The local democratic committee has chosen not to make an endorsement in this race. When it's a contested, competitive race where Democrats in good standing might come down for one of any four candidates, it makes sense for some of the bigger names in Richmond politics to stay out of it and not get involved. 

Michael Pope  

I also saw from your reporting that we're awaiting the potential endorsement from incumbent, lame-duck Mayor Levar Stoney. We don't know who Levar Stoney is going to support, but he's telling you he eventually will make an endorsement in favor of somebody. You quoted all the candidates, asking them if they wanted the endorsement of Levar Stoney. The Avula answer is interesting because it started with something to the effect of, well, yeah, he's kind of popular, which was like a backhanded compliment. Explain the Levar Stoney endorsement piece of this. 

Graham Moomaw  

I think Stoney's standing is a little hard to read. Maybe he's a little unsure of where he stands politically coming out of his eight years as mayor. He was going to run for governor. Then he went down and shifted to running for lieutenant governor. The conventional wisdom is that he is deeply unpopular in Richmond. His mayoral terms have not been good. Some of that is on Reddit and Twitter. That's the vibe, but I don't know if that reflects the reality of how average people in Richmond, who are not so online, feel about him. I think Avula's is answer is reflective of that candidates are neither running fully away from Stoney, but they're not. They're all kind of running on change. No one is running on we'll continue what he started. But for Avula in particular, he needs to earn support among Black voters. Stoney is more popular among that demographic than he is among others in Richmond. That is a big reason why Avula is saying he would be honored to have Stoney's endorsement. Saying he is more popular than some people might think. But there are other other people who might benefit from his endorsement, too. Michelle Mosby her biggest problem is a lack of money. If there's one thing that Stoney can do, well, it is connect people to democratic donors. Donors who can quickly bring a cash infusion to anybody's campaign. I don't know who he'll end up picking or how that'll go. But I think some candidates definitely would see a benefit in having his endorsement.

Michael Pope  

The other big-money candidate in this race has raised $730,000. His Top Contributor is Thomas. How do you pronounce his last name? McInerney? 

Graham Moomaw  

Your guess is good. 

Michael Pope  

His Top Contributor is Thomas McHenry of Genworth Financial, who gave him $90,000. He's the founder of a nonprofit community development loan fund known as Bridging Virginia, which attracts capital to underserved communities. Graham, tell us about Harrison Roday. 

Graham Moomaw  

Today is a complete newcomer to city politics. Maybe one of the biggest wild cards in the race because of all that money he's raised. He was leading in fundraising over the summer, but has now slipped behind Avula after this most recent fundraising period. But he grew up in Henrico County. Previously lived in New York and worked at a manufacturing focused private equity firm. When he's out speaking to crowds, he talks about how enamored he is at manufacturing. He likes the idea of a lot of people coming to work at a factory for the same common purpose. His private equity background is a bit of a challenge running for office in a city like Richmond. It brings these Wall Street finance bro types of snarky reactions that I think he's going to have to overcome. He's racked up some pretty significant endorsements from progressive groups such as New Virginia Majority and the Richmond Teachers Union. The Richmond Crusader for Voters is a civil rights group that historically focused on preserving Black voting strength in Richmond. Some of those endorsements have been pretty surprising. But he is running in the true progressive lane. He's positioning himself as the alternative for people who might have doubts about whether he is the devoted Democrat he says he is.

Michael Pope  

Interesting. Okay. On the campaign trail, Harrison Roday is making City Hall reform one of his central issues; when he's asked about mismanagement at City Hall and out-of-control water bills, all those things you just talked about. Graham, Harrison Roday says he'll be the candidate to do something about it. 

Harrison Roday  

City Hall reform has been a core part of our campaign message since day one. I've called for a performance and financial audit of every department in City Hall. That's something we can do immediately that'll set the stage for higher performance for our residents. We can't have a city hall in a city where we say we love restaurants and we want to be a food town, but we chase restaurants out by making it hard to do business. We need to have a city hall that's focused on performance improvements, not just for our small businesses but for our day-to-day residents.

Michael Pope  

Graham Moomaw, is this argument about chasing restaurants out of town going to work with voters? 

Graham Moomaw  

Yeah, I think that's exactly the type of thing that will resonate with people who want the city to do the basic stuff. Restaurants and our foodie scene are a big part of what makes Richmond seem like a cool, attractive place to live. It's what gets us on a lot of the lists. CNN just named Richmond the best place to visit this year. We've had a major controversy over meal taxes, where the city was hitting these restaurants with huge, unexpected meals. Tax bills for tens of thousands of dollars. Stuff that they didn't know they owed. It goes back to a quirk that happened during the pandemic. I think that gets at what a lot of candidates are running on: that city hall gets in the way of Richmond's success instead of setting the stage for business owners and restaurant owners to succeed. Definitely, I think Roday brings this up because he's worked in private equity, business, and finance. He brings the managerial mindset that he'll come in and get things like sending people tax bills; we'll look at that and have the knowledge to get things like that turned around. 

Michael Pope

Graham, I want to follow up with something you mentioned; the endorsement from the Richmond Crusade for Voters. This is an organization traditionally focused on preserving Black voting power and Black political influence. Here, they are endorsing this white guy from Henrico. What's been the reaction to that?

Graham Moomaw  

It has left some people scratching their heads a little bit. The Crusade doesn't have the strongest track record in terms of picking winners in recent mayoral elections. They endorsed Joe Morrissey in 2016; he lost to Stoney. They endorsed former city councilor Kim Gray in 2020, who was running as the anti-Stoney candidate; she also lost. The Crusade definitely has a contrarian streak. Wanting to do battle with the establishment. That kind of explains why they might have endorsed Roday. Making a surprising endorsement of Roday. Roday held a press conference yesterday with Chuck Richardson, who was a former city councilman, who was part of the the first city council to have a Black majority back in the 70s. He's kind of a legendary figure in local politics. He said there were some members of the Crusade who weren't too happy about it. They wanted this group to see a person of color leading the city. He felt that it was time for people to get over that and look at what people bring to the table, regardless of their skin color. He acknowledged there has been some pushback, and people who might be a little befuddled by it. We'll see how it helps Roday going forward.

Michael Pope  

Our next candidate raised almost $300,000. Her top contributor is Alfred Liggins, the CEO of Radio One, who donated $10,000. She is the founder of Help Me, Help You, a nonprofit aimed to help formerly incarcerated people return to their communities. She's a former ninth district city council member, and she's the first Black woman to serve as Richmond City Council President. This is her second campaign for mayor. She was a candidate for mayor back in 2016 when she got about 6% of the vote. Graham Moomaw, tell us about Michelle Mosby.

Graham Moomaw  

In addition to her nonprofit. She also owns a hair salon on the south side. She's worked as a realtor and is running as the tried and true person who has been in City Hall before and who has deep Richmond roots. She's not someone who came here or is just moving back here; she is someone from Richmond who has the community connections to be an effective mayor. She was the first Black woman to serve as the president of Richmond City Council. She's leaning into the history-making potential of her being, possibly being, the first Black woman to serve as mayor. On the campaign trail, she talks about Kamala Harris and the synergy between America possibly electing its first Black woman president and Richmond possibly electing its first Black woman as mayor. I think there are people who expect her to see a pretty big benefit from the presidential race. Suppose Black turnout in Richmond is juiced to higher levels because Kamala is at the top of the ticket. I guess the downside to her is she has not been in the city office since, I believe, 2016. There is skepticism that she sort of represents a return to business as usual. That we'd be getting more of the same when people want to see change. She's countering that by saying her community connections give her the ability to work both official and unofficial levers of power. She knows who to call on the phone to make something happen. She deploys the lines that she would not need training wheels; she would not need any on-the-job training. She knows how City Hall works. She can come in and be effective on day one. Whereas these candidates who are running as outsiders, even though they may have a more credible case we are going to shake up the status quo. They don't know as much about the reality of how City Hall works.

Michael Pope  

On the topic of how the reality of how City Hall works. One of the biggest issues at City Hall is affordable housing. On the campaign trail, Michelle Mosby says the city needs more information about affordable housing units in how they're set aside at different levels of area median income. How many units are set aside for 30% of AMI? How many units are set aside at 60% of AMI? or 80% of AMI? This is what she had to say about it when she spoke to Bill Fitzgerald on CBS Six. 

Michelle Mosby  

Perhaps we need something that tracks who our partners are. Some type of database that says this local developer will be doing a development with 30% AMI, 60% AMI, and 80% AMI. At that moment, we know how to begin to assess. Because to assess someone at 100% AMI, and they're only getting the 30%, 60%, and 80%, somewhere in there, there's someone's gonna take a loss; my surmise is that it's going to be the people.

Michael Pope  

Yeah, Graham, what you heard in that soundbite was the subtext there was. I know how this stuff is done; I've been around City Hall. Is that an argument that's going to work, and how important is affordable housing going to be in this election? 

Graham Moomaw  

Housing is arguably the biggest issue. The downside to Richmond's success in this cool, growing, mid-sized city is that it's gotten more expensive to buy a house here or to rent it here. That is a problem that everybody is feeling. If you own a house, your tax bills are going up because the assessment is higher. If you're looking to rent an apartment, those rents are going through the roof. The city has been making a concerted effort to get to build more housing to try to address that problem. There are all these kinds of complicated development deals to get these complexes built. What do we mean by affordable housing? Affordable for who? Who can really afford $1,500 a month in rent? Yeah, that's a big complicated topic that I'd say is the biggest of the election. Her having been on city council; she talks about how she was involved in getting the city's Affordable Housing Trust Fund up and running. But there are also issues with that. The city is not funding it the way that the city was supposed to fund it, based on this ordinance that was passed a long time ago. Even though she has experience in the affordable housing realm, it's also an example of why people might be skeptical of her. If you got the ball rolling on affordable housing, why is it such a big problem now? When could we have been a little bit more proactive before and done some things to start preventing it before we got to this point?

Michael Pope  

One more question about Michelle Mosby before we move on to our other candidates. Graham, at the top, you talked about how this electoral college system was created to address racial disparities. In previous elections, I'm wondering how Michelle Mosby's strategy plays out with the system where you have to win five of nine districts. Does she have an advantage over the other candidates?

Graham Moomaw  

It's a declining advantage. When that rule was implemented, I believe we had six majority Black districts. But the city's demographics have changed so that it's now down to four. With that has come all kinds of concerns about gentrification and housing issues. It is only a matter of time before that starts to show up in city politics. I think it's an uncomfortable thing to talk about. But there is definitely this white Richmond versus Black Richmond dynamic. Where Mosby is probably going to do well in the majority Black neighborhoods. The rest of the candidates are competing for white progressive voters in the other neighborhoods. The person who is going to succeed is going to be the person who can demonstrate the most crossover appeal and appeal to all those districts, regardless of demographics. There have been some concerns raised recently. There was a city commission that was looking at this system. Does it still make sense to do it this way? Given that the city's Black population is declining. We're getting more diverse overall. The Hispanic population is increasing; the Asian population is increasing. We're seeing people identifying as mixed race. I guess the commission didn't recommend any changes. However, they raised concerns that this five-out-of-nine system could eventually backfire if the demographic change continues. If we only have two or three majority Black districts, are you just creating an incentive for candidates to ignore those districts, allowing the whiter side of town to have its way? Which is the thing that you want to prevent by implementing that rule in the first place.

Michael Pope  

I'm glad you're on the podcast to explain all of this. Graham, our next candidate, raised $130,000. His top Contributor is Gary Watkins of Midlothian, who donated $10,000. He is currently the first district representative on the Richmond City Council, where he's served since he was first elected in 2016. He is the owner of Pure Fitness RVA in Scott's Addition. An adjunct professor at UVA School of Public Policy. Graham tells us about Andreas Addison.

Graham Moomaw  

He is the only current officeholder in the race. He is definitely trying to use that to compete with Mosby in the lane of I know how City Hall works. I have been involved in all of the things that are happening. I have the knowledge. He sits on the planning commission. He is fluent in urban planning and the land use stuff that people get really into. But he's behind in fundraising. There has been no independent polling, so it's hard to say where everybody stands. But one campaign conducted poll, conducted for Mosby's campaign, he was well behind Avula and Mosby. I think the challenge for him, he can credibly say that he's bringing concrete policy ideas, and he knows city policy issues more than others because he's been on the city council for eight years and still goes to those meetings on Monday nights. I guess the question I'd have is whether that is enough to win citywide. Do people want to hear urban planning policy details about better city design? Or do people need to hear some bigger-picture vision of where Richmond is going to be in 10 years?

Michael Pope  

Urban planning nerds are probably the base listeners of this podcast. He might be popular on PodVA. But yeah, with voters, it's a different story. It's interesting he's been around for eight years. But, at the same time, he's kind of critical of recent trends at City Hall. Check out this audio of what he had to say about development run amok. 

Andreas Addison  

When you look at Scott's Addition to Manchester, they weren't planned by the city. We responded and followed the development, converting warehouses into apartments that they then wanted to add density to. We didn't have the sidewalk plan, the street management plan, the traffic plan, the parking plan, or affordability. When you think about as we've matured, it's now time that we'll invest in those investments to make sure we're partnering with developers to build affordability. Because 50% AMI is an expensive price point for working families. That's about a $55,000 a year salary. That's a starting wage for a teacher, firefighter, and police officer. If we're not building housing for them, then we're not supporting our workforce. 

Michael Pope  

We're back to this discussion of AMI and how affordable housing works. We just heard him go through a laundry list of planning for sidewalks and that sort of thing. Hidden in, there is a criticism of the current direction at City Hall. There was this huge amount of growth with not a lot of planning.

Graham Moomaw  

Definitely, he has started to deploy this line. He wants to be the mayor that he never had, which is a pretty overt dig at Stoney. There's some friction between him and Stoney's Folks. Because his time has overlapped pretty neatly with Stoney's time as mayor, he has been a vote for a lot of the stuff that Stoney has tried to do. I think he is frustrated that he is on the city council taking these tough votes and never getting much credit for helping get these things across the finish line. He would like to own some of the successes of things that have happened over the last eight years. Some of which have happened under Stoney's watch. The big one is fare-free transit on our local bus system. That was something that started during the pandemic. He was instrumental in helping to to keep that going once the pandemic emergency measures went away by getting regional partners on board with providing the funding to make sure it could continue to happen. To your point about AMI there's clearly a subset of the population who's very interested in the nitty gritty details of urban planning. But I'm guessing that if I go out to the early voting sites and I ask people what's the top issue on their mind, they're not going to launch into a detailed discourse about AMI percentages and how that plays into the affordable housing strategy. Some of it comes down to the vibes people get from these candidates.

Michael Pope  

Our final candidate raised the smallest amount of money, about $3,000. His Top Contributor is himself. This is a campaign largely self-financed. This is the candidate I think voters probably know the least about. Graham, who is Maurice Neblett.

Graham Moomaw  

He is a self-described community organizer and entrepreneur. I believe he owns a security company. He sits on the board of a local credit union. He is running as the true outsider, a man of the people type of candidate. Most people see him as a long shot because he has no money. He doesn't have institutional ties to democratic politics or local politics. This is his first run for office. But without those ties comes the ability to say you're the pure candidate who's not taking any money from developers, what the people really need. If you call him on his cell phone, he rattles off all these resources about which phone number to call if you need help with this issue or that issue. He is running as a guy who knows the city's problems. He's a Richmond native as well and can bring a community-organizing mindset to the city in terms of putting people first. I think he's facing skepticism, given his background, as to whether he's ready for prime time. The candidates have a jam-packed schedule of forums, and he is invited to almost every single one of those. He holds his own on stage. He's a pretty entertaining speaker. At one recent forum, he said something about how Richmond could be the Dubai of Virginia. I'm still not fully sure what he meant by that. I think he meant the concept of density and building. He is definitely in the mix and getting himself out there. But I don't think many people would give him strong odds to be a top finisher.

Michael Pope  

The Dubai of Virginia. I'm gonna have to put some thought into that: Dubai of Virginia. On the campaign trail, Maurice Neblett presents himself as the everyman, as you just mentioned, the common man. Here is his pitch to voters. 

Maurice Neblett  

As a community organizer, advocate for the community members. I have seen them being turned around when they go in for services, and we need to open the doors back up. That's why I want to make sure we open the doors for City Hall. We want to make sure that the community has a seat at the table.

Michael Pope  

Opening the doors of City Hall is a theme that we've heard from all of these candidates. Maybe this is a good point to start wrapping it up for our field of candidates. Because this is an election about change. A new person is going to be mayor, and there seems to be frustration aimed right at city hall; in terms of mismanagement, water bills being out of control, and FOIA request, the freedom of information requests not being fulfilled. Is the kind of unease at city hall the undercurrent of this entire election?

Graham Moomaw  

Yeah, I think it is. Frustration is hitting a peak right now with City Hall. Even Stoney himself, when he ran, ran on that same theme: that we're going to stop chasing shiny objects and big developments. We're going to get back to doing the basics right. The fact that you see all these candidates running on similar messages shows that the city is not currently doing the basics right. There was that lady who went down to the city council meeting this week and said the city thinks she owes $600 for water; she did the math herself and realized that the city owes her $1,000. Because she's been overpaying, voters in this town have either had that same experience or know someone who has. People who just want basic municipal functions like billing, permitting, and that sort of thing to be done well. All the candidates are emphasizing that every chance they can. But that's partly what makes this a challenging race to cover. Nobody's running on one big policy idea that'd solve everything. People are saying Roday, in particular, tries to level with people, that you cannot turn this thing around quickly. People expecting a new mayor to come in and, like magic, everything's gonna be solved overnight is kind of an unrealistic expectation. Some of the candidates are trying to temper that. For a lot of voters, it's going to come down to looking at what these folks are saying. Looking at their backgrounds and their temperament. Who do you think is the most credible messenger to carry through on priorities? Which they all seem to agree on.

Michael Pope  

One final question for Grham Moomaw of Richmonder.org. What are you going to be looking for on election night? The polls close, and we finally start getting election returns coming in on election night. Where are you going to be focusing your attention?

Graham Moomaw  

Because of the five of nine districts rule, the biggest focus is going to be on the districts that are most racially mixed. To see where those are going, it's the ones that are going to determine whether anybody gets to five of nine. That's going to be the big question on election night: can somebody get to five? Every top-tier candidate that I've talked to says they believe they have a path to five of nine. But there is a train of thought that some campaigns might just be playing for a runoff. The goal is not to win on election night; the goal is to get to a one-on-one in a lower turnout runoff in December. Avula has told me specifically that is not hi his plan. He thinks he can win five of nine. The Electoral College system means the geography of where those votes are coming in. Is somebody showing a surprising amount of strength where you wouldn't expect them to? Those nitty-gritty neighborhood-by-neighborhood numbers are going to tell a lot about whether we might see somebody get to five of nine. Or whether we might be going to a runoff.

Michael Pope  

Graham Moomaw of Richmonder.org. Thanks for joining us.

Graham Moomaw  

Thanks for having me.