Rising Employment, Dedicated Bus Lanes, and Huge Primary Fundraising
IN THE NEWS:
Both parties are showing huge fundraising numbers, suggesting this election cycle will be one of the hardest-fought in recent memory--as some incumbents race against each other and many new seats have opened up to challengers. Democrats have a fundraising edge, but they may burn through a significant amount of cash before the June 20 primary.
Virginia is finally seeing a labor force participation rate that is slightly higher than it was before the pandemic started. While some of that is due to rising wages, some is also due to the end of stimulus funding and emergency Medicaid availability.
Richmond city leaders are considering an expansion to the bus rapid transit system known as the Pulse--and similar systems are under consideration in Fairfax County, Arlington, and Alexandria.
At the Watercooler:
- Senator Louise Lucas is throwing shade at Northern Virginia senators who put their names on an invitation to a fundraiser for her primary challenger, Senator Lionell Spruill.
- Lots of endorsements in Virginia races, including from Lt. Governor Winsome Earl-Sears and Congresswoman Lauren Boebert.
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Tom Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this Pod Virginia, a podcast that is so ready for Cinco de Mayo.
Thomas Bowman
Happy Cinco De Mayo.
Michael Pope
Okay, let's get to the news. Primary colors Senator George Barker is a Democrat from Fairfax County who is poised to become one of the most senior members of the Senate. And maybe even Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, but that's only if he prevails against a challenger in the primary this June, former Fairfax County School Board Chairwoman Stella Pekarsky. So campaign finance records show Barker has raised about twice as much money as Pekarsky. Which is a sign of things to come, says Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington.
Stephen Farnsworth
This will be one of the hardest-fought campaign cycles in Virginia's history. Both parties are raising immense amounts of money compared to the past. And both parties will be looking at many vulnerable incumbents and promising challengers as they try to reshape the legislature that takes office next January.
Thomas Bowman
Both parties need you to make it rain. In Charlottesville, Senator Creigh Deeds raised more than twice as much as his challenger in the Democratic primary, Delegate Sally Hudson. That's a good indication of where this race might be headed, says J. Miles Coleman at the UVA Center for Politics.
J. Miles Coleman
A lot of talk on the ground here; she's gonna have a close race was Sally Hudson. If we're using fundraising as a metric, Deeds is in much better shape than Hudson.
Michael Pope
Yeah, so these campaign finance records are showing us the contours of what 2023 will look like. Interestingly, Democrats have an edge on fundraising for the General Assembly. However, the caveat is they also have a bunch of really contested primaries. They're gonna breeze through a lot of this money, you know, before June. There's the Aird-Morrissey race, then Barker-Pekarsky, Deeds-Hudson McPike-Guzman, and of course, the Lukas-Spruill race. We'll see Democrats breeze through a ton of money before we get to the general.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And therein lies the rub for the Democratic Party of Virginia. There will be many primary challenges this year, and more than one will be well-funded. There are few other local games for donors nationwide to donate to in this political cycle. You have Virginia, you have New Jersey at the state level, and you also have a statewide up in Kentucky. And I think that the Missouri House or something like that, don't quote me. Well, I guess we are quoting me on that. But I'm not quite sure about the Missouri House. But the point is that there's only a handful of states that even have elections this year. And Virginia and New Jersey are the only states with Assembly elections this year. And so that usually helps them fundraise from donors in New York and California. But this year, with so many primaries, all that money they raise will be spent against other Democrats.
Michael Pope
Yeah, it's interesting that we don't see many super competitive primaries on the Republican side. In fact, there are only two to speak of: the Williams-March race. And then that Senate seat in Chesterfield with Ramirez-Sturtevant-Chase. But those are only two. You've got so many of these Democratic primaries contested, hotly contested Democratic primaries that are going to be really expensive.
Thomas Bowman
And those hot contests might cool off when the general elections roll around. And the reason for that is the excitement may fade; maybe one person wins that would have had access to money or didn't have access to money compared to the other competitor. And so once that all shakes out after the primaries, and we get a better sense of who the nominees will be in June, people focus on the general election. But in the meantime, Republicans are stacking up cash; Glenn Youngkin just announced another million-dollar check he just cashed.
Michael Pope
Yeah, big money, this campaign cycle, no doubt about that, and more to come. So stay tuned to Pod Virginia because we will discuss it here. So let's move on to our next story. Returning to the workforce, when the pandemic struck, many people in Virginia responded by simply dropping out of the labor force. They did not have a job and weren't looking for a job. So now Virginia is finally seeing a labor force participation rate that's slightly higher than before the pandemic started. Terry Clower at George Mason University Schar School says the trend is driven by several factors. One is rising wages. And then a second is the conclusion of some of this federal stimulus money that has stopped on this federal stimulus funding. And then here's another few reasons.
Terry Clower
While it's not completely recovered, we are seeing some recovery in some of the important services like child care and elder care service that may be now allowing some folks to go back and look for jobs and actually take jobs, who simply couldn't because of other responsibilities, and over the last couple of three years,.
Thomas Bowman
John Provo at Virginia Tech points out that labor force participation differs in different parts of the Commonwealth.
John Provo
Some more rural areas are still struggling to get back up to pre-pandemic levels. Some smaller metros with good job growth have been running at a higher rate for a while. So I think that's probably the interesting question now that, as a state, we're back to pre-pandemic levels.
Michael Pope
So Governor Glenn Youngkin credits, what he says, are common sense policies to make Virginia more competitive and bring more people into the labor force. So the governor, of course, is doing a victory lap on this. But these are good numbers. Before the pandemic started, Virginia's labor force participation rate was 65.7%, and then in March and 2023, it was 65.9%. So just slightly higher than that pre-pandemic level. So just all-around really good news that our economy is resilient enough to get through the pandemic and have a labor force participation that's now slightly higher than before.
Thomas Bowman
Yes, and there's a ton of nuance to that, Michael. So one of the biggest reasons that labor force participation numbers are finally taking back up is because on April 1st, how do you like this for an April Fool's prank? The United States began authorizing states to remove up to 15 million people from Medicaid insurance as that emergency safety net they implemented during the COVID pandemic ended. So the good news for Virginians is you're probably not one of the people losing your insurance. Most of those people live in Florida and Texas, as well as other states that haven't expanded Medicaid. Most of the people who lose their Medicaid coverage are going to qualify for other insurance options. It's a hassle, but it won't put them too deeply in the lurch. But some will still fall through those cracks, Michael; that's what we're concerned about because that disproportionately affects people of color and young people.
Michael Pope
Yeah, this issue of unwinding Medicaid coverage for people in Virginia is very serious. There are more than 300,000 people that are at risk in Virginia of losing their health insurance. Because of those pandemic-era rules, you can't kick somebody off of Medicaid during the pandemic. Well, you can now, starting in April, you can kick somebody off of Medicaid, and so they're looking at these cases. And so April 1st was the first day states were allowed to kick folks out. And so, in terms of kicking people off, it's based on when they first enrolled for Medicaid. So it's a case-by-case basis of when they first started to enroll. And, of course, the huge majority of that group of people will be those enrolled in March 2020. So when will they be up for possibly being kicked off the Medicaid rolls? Well, my understanding is that that could be that redetermination could be this month. So many people could likely lose their health coverage toward the end of June. So that's not a very happy summer for hundreds of thousands of people in Virginia who might lose their health insurance coverage by the end of June this year.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, and nationally, 30% of the people losing Medicaid coverage, that is, one in three people, they're Hispanic. And another 15% of those people are Black, over 5 million are children, and almost 5 million adults between 18 and 34 might lose Medicaid, according to the Federal Department of Health and Human Services. And Michael, while 2.7 million people who lose Medicaid coverage should qualify for tax credits, about two-thirds would be eligible for plans with no premiums. Another 5 million people can access other forms of coverage, like through employers. However, we're really concerned that almost 7 million people around the country could lose Medicaid due to red tape. Because before the pandemic, people frequently lost coverage when they failed to complete their annual renewal processing time or their state couldn't contact them due to an adjustment change or other issues.
Michael Pope
The frustrating part is that they are eligible but kicked off for administrative reasons. So clearly, that's something that everybody wants to avoid moving forward. It's also worth pointing out where we are in the timeline here because of those pandemic-era rule changes. Virginia ended up having the lowest rate of child poverty ever. And that's because Virginia and the rest of the United States adopted a European-style safety net program that radically expanded health insurance for people that did not previously have it. And now we're at a point where we have some soul-searching here to do and ask an existential question. Does Virginia America want a European-style social safety net program? Or do we want to scale it back and return to what the health insurance system looked like before the pandemic? Right now, the answer to that question is that most people are comfortable scaling it back and seeing a return of those higher percentages of child poverty. But there are a lot of people who say that's a mistake. And Virginia should continue to ensure that people have health insurance, especially those at risk, which are children and minorities.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I don't know about most people saying it's okay. I think it's just happening because that's how the bill was written.
Michael Pope
If you randomly walked around and asked people, should America have a European-style social safety net where everybody gets free health insurance.
Thomas Bowman
But why would you write it that way? Why would you say it that way? Like, that's obviously gonna scare people. But the reality is, I don't want to do things the way that America has done them because America's got one of the worst, if not the worst, healthcare systems of all advanced democracies in the West. So look, what we found here in this experiment, is that giving money to the people who need it helps.
Michael Pope
Yeah, that's what I was trying to say about soul searching. I think this wasn't an experiment. The word you just used was an experiment. This was an experiment. And many people are looking at the results and saying this was a really successful experiment. Do we want to go back to how things were or try to figure out a different way of doing things in the future? So that's the question for now. But let's move on to our next story. Richmond has a bus rapid transit system known as "the pulse," and city leaders in Richmond are considering expanding it. Similar systems are also under consideration in Fairfax County, Arlington, and Alexandria. Monica Blackman is the executive director at the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority.
Monica Blackman
Often, we hear well, I'm not gonna take the bus for various reasons, I can get there faster in my car, but local bus service vs. BRT, they are two different services. We want a high capacity to compete and incentivize people to get out of their single-occupied vehicles.
Thomas Bowman
Julia Wallerce at the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy says the key to getting people out of their cars is to offer a better commute using dedicated bus lines.
Julia Wallerce
By giving the bus priority, we can dismantle the perception that the bus is a last resort or that if you ride, the bus is somehow less important of a member of society, that if you choose to ride the bus, you're actually making the smart decision. You know what will be faster than driving your car because you won't hit traffic.
Michael Pope
Yeah, so Thomas, last week, I was able to moderate a panel about bus rapid transit in Alexandria along the Duke Street corridor. And it's controversial because the idea of bus rapid transit on Duke Street is that you would take two existing traffic lanes and not be able to drive on them anymore. Only buses would get their dedicated lanes only for buses. And so you gotta have a lot of people who say, hey, look, I never ride a bus, I'm never going to ride a bus. And I would prefer the traffic lane to be there. Thank you very much. And so there's a lot of opposition to this.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And people who are used to how things are done will complain anytime you disrupt traffic patterns. And I saw that and experienced that here in Richmond when they closed down a lane and shifted it back and forth on which side of the street it was for the pulse system that we have here, which I don't get to ride because it goes east-west and I live south. So when they expand it south, I'll finally be able to take the pulse and go anywhere I want to go. And then it will be actually convenient. But for these systems to be successful, Michael, you need people sitting in their car to see other people getting on the bus and going past them while you are stuck at a light or in traffic. And Alexandria, can you imagine what an ad would do right over 395 saying you could be on your way to work right now.
Michael Pope
So I think a good example of what you're talking about would be if you are on the interstate. You're stuck in traffic, and you're not moving, and you look over at the Express Lanes, and they're mostly empty. But here comes a car, you know, whizzing by at 75 miles an hour, and you say to yourself, gosh, that's a much better way of getting around than my single occupancy vehicle. Maybe I should be in the express lane. In this case, on Duke Street, maybe those drivers will tell themselves, I should be on that bus.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, and once the traffic disruption is finished, people get used to it. And as a car driver myself, primarily, I will say I like dedicated bus lanes a lot better than shared lanes. And there's a reason for that. So not quite a bus. If you've ever driven in DC, they've got the H Street streetcar. And if you get in front of that thing, and it's coming up behind you, that makes you nervous. There's about a four-block stretch on H Street where you are just panicking when you see this thing coming up. And I'm not commenting on the technology or whether there should or shouldn't be streetcars. I'm just saying I like the dedicated lanes.
Michael Pope
Yeah, they're also really good for emergency vehicles. This is another thing sometimes, if you're stuck in traffic and you look over at one of these dedicated lanes, you will see an ambulance breezing by. So there are many reasons for these, most prominently enhancing the existing bus service, which on Duke Street is already a very popular line. And then, of course, cutting emissions and doing something about climate change. So that's all in the future for bus rapid transit. Maybe, hey, let's take a break. When we return, we will play a round of trivia and read your tweets.
Whittney Evans
Hi, this is Whittney Evans with VPM. You're listening to Pod Virginia with Michael Pope and Thomas Bowman.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Pod Virginia. So it's time for some trivia. So last week, we asked you for a really difficult one.
Thomas Bowman
We asked you to name all seven states that were once part of Virginia.
Michael Pope
Yeah. So a funny thing about this question. I saw it in a book. I thought it'd be a great trivia question. And then, I was in Orange at the James Madison Museum of Orange County History, and I saw a map on the wall explaining this concept. Because, and this was really interesting, Thomas, all of these states. We were part of Orange County, Virginia. So Orange County, Virginia, went way out West of what is now the county limits.
Thomas Bowman
Orange, you are glad you're not in Orange County.
Michael Pope
Orange, are you glad? Yes. So when Orange County was established in 1734, it included all of what's now West Virginia plus Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.
Thomas Bowman
Wow. So the southern half of Wisconsin used to be Orange County, Virginia.
Michael Pope
Orange, you glad you asked. And yes, the southern half of Michigan used to be Orange County too.
Thomas Bowman
We've got a winner, but it isn't fair when the winner is a member of the House of Delegates. So Pod Virginia superfan and frequent guest Marcus Simon chimed in with the correct answer on Twitter, naming all seven states right away.
Michael Pope
We have a winner of Marcus Simon congratulations, Marcus Simon, you win nothing because there's no actual victory of this game other than the shout-out we give you on the show. But as you might imagine. This trivia question struck a nerve with people because depending on how you interpret the question, the answer could be several different things.
Thomas Bowman
And that's what got me to remember when you before we were recording, asked me this question, and I said it was all Virginia at one point.
Michael Pope
everything to the Pacific Ocean, right?
Thomas Bowman
And that's exactly what Michael Che points out the 1606 charter of James the First had Virginia being all the Mid-Atlantic area from present-day North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York.
Michael Pope
J. Speer at the Virginia Poverty Law Center also guessed about West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan.
Thomas Bowman
So close if only he had swapped out Tennessee for Wisconsin, although who would ever guess Wisconsin, but at the same time? You technically might have been correct if you guessed Alaska at one point. Yeah, Wisconsin. That's a head-scratcher. Really, that's difficult to imagine how far the influence of the Old Dominion went in the 1700s.
Michael Pope
Well, what do we have for this week, Michael?
Thomas Bowman
All right. Yeah. Let's move on to our trivia question for this week.
Michael Pope
All right, here it is. What is the highest peak in Virginia?
Thomas Bowman
We'll give you a hint, which we don't normally do. But it is the home to wild ponies.
Michael Pope
Yes, yes. And you know about the debate over wild ponies if you are a Pod Virginia listener because we discussed that bill in the General Assembly. Naming the Chincoteague pony as the official wild pony of Virginia. An interesting thing about that effort is that it totally sidelined these wild ponies in this part of Virginia.
Thomas Bowman
We got to try not to say it. But Michael, let's check our inbox.
Michael Pope
Thomas, go ahead and open up that Pod Virginia mailbag. What are our listeners talking about?
Thomas Bowman
Well, they're talking about you. And how you completely screwed up the discussion of Senate District 27 in Fredericksburg.
Michael Pope
Yeah, yeah, I really screwed up that one. That's a matter of trying to do too much too fast. Okay, so let's correct the record here and review the candidates' list. The Republicans in this race this in senate district 27 in Fredericksburg. The Republicans are Tara Durant and Matt Strickland. Matt Strickland is a Republican. Democrats in the race are Joel Griffin and Ben Litchfield, plus there is an independent candidate Monica Gary.
Thomas Bowman
I saw that Monica Gary also chimed in on Twitter to ensure people knew she was a candidate. And Michael, she interacts with the show quite a bit.
Michael Pope
Hopefully, she's a listener because anyone who wants to know what's happened in Virginia politics is a Pod Virginia listener. Also, for the record, we're talking about this race because of Chas Nuttycombe. Moved the forecast for that race in senate district 27 from lean Republican to tilt Republican. So yet another one of these forecast prediction changes that benefit the Democrats. All right, so let's head over to the water cooler. Thomas, what's the latest? You're hearing around the water cooler.
Thomas Bowman
All right, Senator Louise Lucas is fighting mad, and she's throwing some serious shade at NoVA Senators who put their names on an invitation to a fundraiser for her primary opponent, Senator Lionel Spruill.
Michael Pope
And she's naming names, right? That tweet thread really went after specific people in specific ways, right?
Thomas Bowman
Oh, yeah, it got very spicy. Almost too spicy for me. But she's starting with George Barker's. She says he has been telling people he will be the next Chairman of the Finance committing to a job that she wants. Louise Lucas says George Barker has grossly underestimated her if he ever thought she would roll over and let him just take what it took her three decades to earn. She says seeing Scott Surovell's name on the list made her chuckle because he's into everybody's business.
Michael Pope
Well, fact check true.
Thomas Bowman
But I like it sometimes. She also says Barbara Favalo sent her a message explaining that she asked for her name to be removed from the list and that John Bell called to apologize. He's even offered to be a special guest at a fundraiser for her, Louise Lucas says of John Bell. Thanks, but no thanks, she concluded.
Michael Pope
Ouch, sick burn. Thanks, but no thanks, John Bell. I don't want you to do a fundraiser for me.
Thomas Bowman
That spicy that? I don't know how well that's gonna sit. That's definitely gonna cause some drama.
Michael Pope
Yeah, and people have long memories. Senators have long memories. And you got to think about, you know, Louise Lucas does need to work with these people in the future.
Thomas Bowman
Yes, but she has the seniority, Michael. And so, therefore, with the Senate still very much catering to seniority, she should have advantages if she gets reelected in her primary. Still, George Barker has a primary himself, as we mentioned earlier, against Stella Pekarsky. And she is picking up a lot of traction.
Michael Pope
Well, Louise Lucas currently ranks as number three in terms of seniority in the Senate. So one, Saslaw, he's leaving. Two is Howell. She's leaving. So she's about to become number one seniority in the Senate. George Barker is ranked number 14 in the Senate. So she's got quite several years on him in terms of seniority. And they're currently engaged in this dispute about who becomes Chair of the Finance Committee. So I think we're seeing that politics play out on Twitter in a very Twitter kind of way.
Thomas Bowman
All right, Michael, what about you? What are you hearing around town?
Michael Pope
Well, endorsement. My inbox, my email inbox, is just flooded with endorsements. And I really don't know what to make about all of them. Earlier in the podcast, we discussed the Republicans running in that Fredericksburg Senate race, Tara Durant and Matt Strickland. Well, guess who is making an endorsement in that race? Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears says Tara Durant will empower parents to lower taxes and defend our constitutional rights. So that's one endorsement. And then I also saw another endorsement. We're thinking about Congresswoman Lauren Boebert endorsing Scott Parkinson. He's one of the many Republicans who want to run against Tim Kaine. And something tells me that an endorsement from Lauren Boebert might actually backfire and negatively influence the campaign, at least at the General Assembly. But perhaps maybe for the primary. It's a way to get some attention and a very crowded field. Thomas, there are eight Republicans here. So I mean, an endorsement from firebrand Congresswoman Lauren Boebert. I don't know. Maybe it helps them in the primary?
Thomas Bowman
It'll definitely help Tim Kaine raise some money.
Michael Pope
Yeah, I often wonder about these endorsements. I don't know what to make of them because there are so many. And it's sometimes difficult to think about the motivation behind people issuing the endorsements? Or even seeking them? And does anybody really even care about this stuff?
Thomas Bowman
No, on the whole, they don't matter. But in a very select crowd, they do. Because if you are a local committee member, you can start seeing how people are lining up and who they're lining up behind. And you tend to have a few more details filled in for you. Because you might know who's carrying a grudge against somebody in your local party committee. And you might know some of these people. And so when you see more than one of your good friends, or people, you know, at least in a race in a primary race, and other elected leaders start endorsing them, hypothetically, it might make you willing to fall in line. If anything, though, Michael, I think the real benefit is reminding people there's a primary.
Michael Pope
Yeah, I would imagine if you think about the power of endorsements, they would be significant in terms of labor, like which candidate has labor endorsement. Newspapers spent a lot of time and attention drafting endorsements. Most of the time, they don't have too much of an influence, but there was that gubernatorial primary in 2009 when the Washington Post endorsement helped Creigh Deeds secure the nomination, you'll recall that Deeds was not really a leading candidate in that Democratic primary until the Washington Post endorsed him and that created some momentum for him. So yet again, the power of the press here in Virginia. Okay, let's celebrate some birthdays. Speaking of the power of the press, Wednesday, May 3rd is the birthday of Jeff Schapiro of the Richmond Times Dispatch.
Thomas Bowman
We also have two birthdays on Saturday, May 6th, the birthday of Delegate David Bulova of Fairfax County and Delegate Keith Hodges of Middlesex. And then Sunday, May 7th, is the birthday of Senator Janet Howell of Northern Fairfax County.
Michael Pope
Yeah, so happy birthday all around Jeff Schapiro, David Bulova, Hodges, and Janet Howell
Thomas Bowman
Also known as Reston, right?
Michael Pope
One more thing to put on your calendar Wednesday, May 3rd, I'll be moderating a debate of candidates for the Arlington County Board. This is hosted by the Arlington County Democrats and will be held Wednesday at 7pm at the Lubber Run Community Center. So if you're in Arlington and you're curious about the candidates for the Arlington County Board, stop by. You can also hit me up on the socials. If you have any questions that you would like to know about the candidates who are running for the Arlington County Board, hit me up, and I might ask them during the show.
Thomas Bowman
What's your handle again?
Michael Pope
@michaelleepope
