Trevor Southerland: Virginia Primaries to Watch
This week, old friend of the show Trevor Southerland joins the Thomas and Michael to discuss the chaotic upcoming primaries for Virginia's state legislature--including campaign fundraising numbers, the influence of Dominion Energy and Clean Virginia, and some of the latest drama across the aisle.
- Senator Louise Lucas vs Senator Lionel Spruill in Senate District 18
- Senator Jeremy McPike vs Delegate Elizabeth Guzman in Senate District 29
- Senator Joe Morrissey vs Delegate Laschrese Aird in Senate District 13
- Delegate Suhas Subramanyam vs former Delegate Ibraheem Samirah in Senate District 32.
- Senator Amanda Chase vs Tina Ramirez vs Glen Sturtevent in Senate District 12.
- Delegate Kelly Fowler vs Susan Hippen, Brandon Hutchins, and Sean Monteiro in House District 96
Episode Transcript
Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Tom Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Pod Virginia podcast, which looks at all the most competitive primaries this year.
Thomas Bowman
And there are a lot of them. But don't worry, we've got a good guest to help us go through the districts and the candidates.
Michael Pope
Returning to the podcast, one of our OG guests, a man who may have moved to Pennsylvania. You can take the political operative out of the Old Dominion. Still, you can never take the Old Dominion out of the political operative. Thanks for returning to Pod Virginia, Trevor Southerland!
Trevor Southerland
I am so glad to be talking to you guys. And just honestly, I'm so excited that this podcast has survived without me. I didn't think you guys would still be going at this point. But somehow
Michael Pope
It was touch and go for a while.
Trevor Southerland
But whenever you need a ratings boost, I'm here on ready. Let's go.
Thomas Bowman
Well, we appreciate your generosity, Trevor. All right. Let's start in Hampton Roads, where the most expensive Democratic primary is in Senate District 18. We have two incumbents facing off against each other. Senator Louise Lucas raised more than a million dollars, and Senator Lionel's furl raised over $850,000.
Michael Pope
This is a really tough dollar race, a very expensive race. Probably the most expensive one we're going to talk about today. So top donors for Louise Lucas, our Dominion Energy, gave $340,000. Cavalier Management Group gave $50,000, and a West Virginia coal mining company called United Coal Company gave $25,000. So top donors for Lionel Spruill are Dominion Energy, which gave more than $200,000, Democratic advocacy group People First which gave $100,000, and R&J Motel Management, which gave $23,000. So, Trevor Southerland, this is one of the marquee races here incumbent on incumbent; you rarely see that. Both of the candidates here are financed by Dominion Energy. What do you make of this super competitive primary out in Hampton Roads?
Trevor Southerland
Yeah, I mean, this will definitely be a big and expensive race. And quite frankly, it's two giants of Hampton Roads, Democratic politics, that got redistricted together. And that's the only reason this is happening. I know both of them have very good local networks and very good local connections. I don't know who has the advantage here. I don't really know if anybody has that much of an advantage. But it's going to be very tight. And if you didn't know this, you could check it on Twitter, but Louise Lucas has been in the Senate longer than Lionel Spruill. So she does have some seniority on him. And we'll see how much that comes into play.
Thomas Bowman
Who do you want to win?
Trevor Southerland
Hey, nobody wins in that race, especially not for the Democratic Party, like we're gonna have to lose one of the two of them. And that's a tough loss for anybody, but it's already gotten dirty down there. And they are trying to make sure that, you know, bringing in dirt on other people, too, so it's gonna be a wild one.
Thomas Bowman
I was joking and prepared to pull that out. But that was actually a really good answer.
Trevor Southerland
That's what I do.
Michael Pope
We're fortunate to have Trevor Southerland unplugged because now that he's in Pennsylvania, he can speak more freely. So you mentioned the seniority thing. This is pretty important regarding what would happen if they got reelected. Louise Lucas is currently ranking at number three in seniority. She joined the Senate in 1992. The only people that outrank her are Saslaw and Howell, who are retiring. So if elected, she would be the most senior member of the Senate. Lionel Spruill is all the way down at ranking number 30th. In seniority of joining the Senate in 2016. So much lower in terms of seniority. And then also, Louise Lucas has raised more than a million dollars. This is the largest dollar amount of any candidates we will discuss today. And then she also engaged in this Twitter thread, this tweet storm, where she got angry at a bunch of people for putting their name on the invitation to a fundraiser, which we talked about in our last podcast, Trevor Southerland. What did you make of that Louise Lucas tweetstorm?
Trevor Southerland
So I think there are a couple of different things about it. I saw one of the people she went after say that Lionel does that event every year. And he did s even when he was a member of the House. When I was the finance director of the VHDC, he was still in the House. He did a Northern Virginia event every year. So there are people that have been sponsoring that and attending that and going to that year after year. I never think the best way to talk to people is via Twitter, but it certainly gets much attention. And I think that tweet got a lot of attention. Especially it'll be interesting to see how the race turns out. But I think, you know, obviously a Black woman versus a Black man, both from Hampton Roads. That is, that is a big difficult race for every incumbent Senator who's looking at it. So I can imagine that there are some problems on all sides.
Thomas Bowman
Okay, let's move on to the great state of Northern Virginia, where we've got another really expensive Senate primary. Senator Jeremy McPike is up against Delegate Elizabeth Guzman for the new Senate District 29. McPike raised $750,000 compared to Guzman, who raised $240,000.
Michael Pope
Top donors for McPike are Clean Virginia, which gave $50,000, Excel Entertainment Gaming, which gave $25,000, and Senator Scott Surovell, who gave his Senate colleague $25,000. So top donors for Guzman are Elizabeth Guzman herself, who had $84,000 in the bank from her House of Delegates campaign AFSCME which gave $30,000, and Sonja Smith, who gave $25,000.
Thomas Bowman
Who's that?
Michael Pope
Trevor Southerland, what do you make? Sonja Smith is a name that we will mention several times in this conversation. What do you make of the fundraising and all of these races?
Trevor Southerland
Honestly, in this one, I'm surprised that Clean Virginia hasn't given to Guzman either. Because she's always been pretty good on their issues. So I wonder what's happening there. I do think, you know, AFSCME has given her $30,000, which is certainly a good contribution. But the Union could always go in heavier if they want to. And a lot of it, for Guzman, in general, is going to be what the polls say here? And what are they seeing on the internals? Elizabeth is very aggressive. So she will go after Jeremy in every way she can. And it will just be a matter of, like, right now. He's just got swamped with money. So Can she even that up?
Michael Pope
Well, just to make sure that we've got the record clear here, Clean Virginia did, in fact, donate to Elizabeth Guzman $5,000. But it didn't make my list here because I'm only naming the top three and all these races. So Clean Virginia is spreading their money and influence around in many of these elections. Do you think this will change the dynamics or influence the dynamics of this election cycle?
Trevor Southerland
I mean, it'll be interesting to see. This is something that has been happening a few cycles in a row. Now there's Clean Virginia, there's, you know, Sonja Smith operating as herself. I think there's another PAC that I can't think of off the top of my head that they use now. You know, we've seen Clean Virginia and Associates spending everywhere. And obviously, it has a major impact, especially when you're doing something like dropping $50,000 on one candidate and five on another. You're definitely giving an advantage to one person there. And for some reason, it's Jeremy McPike right now in this race.
Thomas Bowman
Well, and the other thing to keep in mind with Sonja Smith and Michael Bills, being husband and wife and, of course, Michael Bills being the primary funder of Clean Virginia, it's really more like Clean Virginia spending about almost $100,000 in this race. So $50,000, of course, to McPike. You said $5,000 directly to Delegate Guzman, and of course, Sonja Smith gave another $25,000, $30,000 combined, so that's $80,000 that they've spent in just this one race.
Trevor Southerland
I mean, it is difficult, as a donor or an outside group, to say that no matter who wins the primary, we are going to win. But if you're Clean Virginia and Associates, that's the case here. Whoever wins the primary is going to be somebody that you support.
Michael Pope
One more question on this race that's not involving campaign finance is just the demographics of the race. So McPike is the incumbent. But he's a boring old white male, right? And Elizabeth Guzman is...
Thomas Bowman
None of those things. Not boring, not old.
Michael Pope
Not boring, not old, not white. Exactly. So I mean, does she kind of have an edge? I mean, despite her the fact that she has not raised nearly as much money as he has. Does she kind of have an edge on the campaign trail against him?
Trevor Southerland
So in some cases, she does, but I also think that's a much bigger edge on Twitter than in real life sometimes. We saw a lot in Democratic primaries directly after the election of Donald Trump, where we saw women sweeping the primaries in many cases. But that's starting to even up a little bit more now. But it could still be an advantage for her, and it definitely makes her several things that he is not.
Thomas Bowman
Moving on to the Richmond suburbs. We've got former Delegate Laschrese Aird raising more money than incumbent Senator Joe Morrissey, although not much more money. Aird raised $575,000, and Morrissey raised $570,000, more than half a million dollars each.
Michael Pope
The top donors for Aird are Clean Virginia, which gave $150,000. Sonja Smith, who gave $125,000, and Democrat advocacy group Meet Our Moment, which gave $68,000. Also worth noting is that big-time Author David Baldacci gave $10,000, so she's got some VIPs on her donor list there. Top donors for Joe Morrissey our Dominion Energy, which gave $10,000; Nexus Services, which gave $30,000 and the Virginia Trial Lawyers Association, which gave $21,000. So Trevor Southerland, Joe Morrissey is one of the most colorful members of the General Assembly ever. Can former Delegate Aird knock him off?
Trevor Southerland
She can. And I think we're starting to see some cracks in the armor of fighting Joe. And we're not seeing much support for him except lobby core which gives to incumbents, so I think there's a chance here. If my friends at Clean Virginia and Sonja Smith are listening, I beg them to go all in and do everything to help Laschrese. Because you won't have another chance to get rid of Joe Morrissey. This is it. If you're gonna make your move, you must do it now. And you got to get Aird in the Senate.
Thomas Bowman
Alright, these people served in the House while you were caucus staff, Trevor. So what is it about these people? Do you see that gives one or the other some kind of incumbent or innate rather advantage?
Trevor Southerland
I think both of them have a very good style of communicating one-on-one with people, making them feel valued. They make people know they're listening when you talk to them. And that's always helped Joe out despite the press and everything else he's had negative. But I think that's starting to wane a little bit. He is getting a lot more hostile with people. He's getting many more hits than he did even in the past. And with the district changing and everything else, I think this is the chance for part of my time in the House. Of course, Joe Morrissey was in the House but not a member of our caucus. But I think Laschrese runs a good campaign and has a real opportunity. And I think it would be good for Virginia if we could make that one happen.
Michael Pope
One of the things about this really interesting race is that it's the Democratic primary where the politics of abortion will take center stage because Joe Morrissey is that rare Democrat who is against abortion rights in some cases. And so I mean, obviously, this topic is high on the agenda for many voters. Do we expect abortion to give Aird an edge in this primary?
Trevor Southerland
I think it could. I think it could give her an edge. I think it's going to help some with fundraising. But I still just think the on-the-ground action here is so important. Laschreses campaign has to get her personally in front of as many people and shake as many hands as possible because that's what Joe Morrissey does, and you can never count out that one on one attitude. I mean, how many times have we heard a consultant say it? If my candidate had just met every voter, they would have won. And that's the case here. If you meet Laschrese, you're gonna vote for Laschrese over Joe. And so her campaign they have to make that happen.
Thomas Bowman
Let's move back up north to Loudoun County, where we've got Delegates with Subramanyam versus former Delegate Ibraheem Samirah. They're running for District 32 in the Senate, Subramanyam raised $240,000, and Samirah raised $55,000.
Michael Pope
Top donors for Subramanyam include Subramanyam himself because he had more than $100,000 in his House campaign account that he gets to use. Clean Virginia is about $55,000, and Senator John Bell contributed $50,000. So top donors for Ibraheem Samirah are Herndon-based Virginia For All, which gave $22,000; Khaled Samirah, who gave $10,000 and Theodore Kattouf, who gave $2,500. So Trevor Southerland, what do you make of these two Delegates, one former Delegate and one current Delegate running against each other?
Trevor Southerland
I mean, I don't even think this one is gonna be close. I think Suhas is gonna run away with this one. I just don't see Ibraheem being able to make a case for why voters in a Democratic primary to say shouldn't send him to Richmond over Suhas. When you look at their records. When you look at what they've done and what they represented when they were in the House. It's an easy choice and will be Suhas hot all day. So I just think this one is I think it's going to be a big win.
Thomas Bowman
So no comeback for Ibraheem Samirah. That's the prediction from our friend, Trevor Southerland. Let's move on to Chesterfield County, which is statistically, at one point, at least the most average county in America. Fun fact.
Michael Pope
Well, they have the most un-average Senator.
Thomas Bowman
Yes, in Chesterfield, we've got incumbent State Senator Amanda Chase, who has two challengers, both raising more money. You've got Tina Ramirez raising $350,000, Glenn Sturtevant, who raised $344,000, and Chase trailing the pack with just less than $200,000.
Michael Pope
Ramirez had $145,000 leftover from her congressional race. So she had a head start on top donors for Sturtevant our Dominion Energy, which gave $30,000; Vision for Virginia PAC, which gave $21,000 and the most alliterative law firm on the planet Allen, Allen, Allen and Allen, which gave $10,000. Top donors for Amanda Chase are friends of Amanda Chase, which gave $57,000 R.L. Dunn of Dunn Construction, who gave $5,000; and Richmond area auto dealer Pearson Companies, who gave $5,000. So, Trevor Southerland, we mentioned that Joe Morrissey was one of the most colorful members of the General Assembly in its long and storied history. Amanda Chase is another one of these really colorful people. Is it possible that Glen Sturtevant or Tina Ramirez could defeat this incumbent Senator?
Trevor Southerland
Can you guys imagine what a monumental election night it would be for the Senate of Virginia to get rid of Amanda Chase and Joe Morrissey in one night?
Thomas Bowman
Oh, my beating heart.
Trevor Southerland
When I look at the history of Virginia, the only more significant thing to ever happen in the Senate's history is when Dick Saslaw went from the House to the Senate. Like there's, there's been nothing else the equivalent of this. So I don't know, it's always hard. Amanda Chase, just like the cockroach, always seems to survive. But I mean, maybe. It is a three-way race which is difficult, you know, harder to get somebody out on those. Still, I mean, just God, the chance of getting rid of both of them is just, I don't know, I need to think about that one and really, it would be such a good night, guys.
Michael Pope
Well, I'm curious about the politics there in Chesterfield. So this Senate District is like 91% Chesterfield. So I mean, it really comes down to what do voters there feel? And it might be one of these cases where money doesn't necessarily by race, right? Like Chase, she obviously has a well of support. She was reluctant four years ago. And so she clearly has a base of supporters out there. So does she even need the money? Could she get reelected by raising the least amount of money and relying on her base? Maybe even the other two candidates in the race cancel each other. out and she benefits that way. There are many pathways for her to victory here, right?
Trevor Southerland
Oh, yeah, there it is. It is scary that there continue to be so many pathways for her. Still, you're seeing in Chesterfield like that county has gone blue, and it's continuing that way. But the Republicans that are there for the primary, a lot of them are still very right-wing. Maybe that gives her the edge, especially with it being a three-candidate race. She definitely could still win it, regardless of the money. God, I'm just still.
Thomas Bowman
I'm curious, does the winner of this one do you think impact whatsoever? The general election.
Trevor Southerland
Definitely could. But you know, Amanda Chase has held on before.
Michael Pope
That she has.
Trevor Southerland
One more race before we wrap it up. So this one is a doozy in Virginia Beach. The tornado that hit earlier this week is almost as big as a whirlwind. We've got uncovered Delegate Kelly Fowler, who's got three challengers, raising more money than her. Susan Hippen raised $56,000, Brandon Hutchins raised $38,000, Sean Monteiro raised $34,000, and Delegate Fowler raised $19,000.
Michael Pope
So yeah, the fundraising on this one is really interesting because the top donor for all these candidates is Clean Virginia, which gave $15,000 to Fowler, $5,000 to Hippen, $5,000 to Hutchins, and $5,000 to Monteiro. So Trevor Southerland, you know Delegate Fowler, you worked with her; what do you make of this primary?
Trevor Southerland
Well, this will be another interesting one, because four candidates are in it. The incumbent is being outworked by all three challengers. Susan Hippen, who has run in the past, is doing good there with what she brought in. But it's what we've seen in the past. You look at candidates, and sometimes you just see a pattern emerge. And this has kind of been a pattern with Delegate Fowler; she does not raise much. And you're looking at it, maybe Clean Virginia, because they've come in more for her. Maybe they came in late to save her on the fundraising; looking at this report, she raised $19,000. But it looked like it was all late from Clean Virginia. So without that, she only raised under $4,000. I think that it's pretty tough.
Thomas Bowman
So how big of an apology check does some entity like Clean Virginia need to cut to the eventual winner of that having spread their money around to all of the candidates?
Trevor Southerland
Oh, you know, I mean, it's not, it's not really about an apology check. I think. It's about looking at this race and seeing; you just have to decide when you're in a group. Like why are we weighing in here? What is the positive for us? And that's always an interesting question, especially with Clean Virginia. But I mean, you look at this one, and the Delegate could still pull it out because it's a four-way race. I think she has been on social media. She doesn't like me much. And that's fine. I think Susan Hippen has been working hard and would probably be the best candidate for Democrats here.
Michael Pope
I'm curious about your take on her relationship with the caucus and with other Democrats, which seems to have been somewhat strained? What are the issues that I know? I heard a lot of Democrats talking about it, was this tweet that she posted a picture of her with Marie March? And what do you make of her relationships with the Democratic Party in general?
Trevor Southerland
Yeah, I mean, I think you've really got to just look at how people conduct themselves. And if you're going to post a picture of yourself with Marie March, you have to know what comes along with that. And you have to know what type of message you're sending to people. And that's one thing that you really have to understand as an elected official, everything you do is sending a message to somebody, and it's telling somebody where your values are. And so when you post a picture like that, it lets people know where your values are. And it doesn't seem to be with the Democratic Party there.
Thomas Bowman
Speaking of patterns emerging. What's going on here where we're seeing so many races where Clean Virginia is endorsing one candidate, and Dominion Energy is going up against another candidate. We haven't actually gotten to dive in too much on this podcast about what's going on here. But you've got Dominion, a big corporate monopoly. That is Virginia's largest political contributor, year in and year out, versus Clean, Virginia, which is run by a completely trustworthy hedge fund manager who's worth more money than all of us combined; what's going on?
Trevor Southerland
Well, I mean, I think everybody knows, you know, Clean, Virginia has a pretty clear rule about your not being able to take money from Dominion Energy when you take money from them. And so I think, you know, that sort of lays it out. I also think, what is the issue of clean Virginia? And I don't know, is it deregulation? Is that the end game for clean Virginia? Because if that's the end game for them, then surely that does make it about Dominion Energy a lot. And so you see that emerge where it's it's one on one side and one on the other. But as we've seen in other races, Clean Virginia makes sure in certain primaries that they're on both sides.
Michael Pope
Alright, before we go, Trevor Southerland, you are going to be familiar to many of our listeners because you go way back on the podcast. Tell us about your new gig up in Pennsylvania.
Trevor Southerland
Yeah, so I am going into my second term as the Executive Director of the Pennsylvania House Democratic Campaign Committee. In 2022 we flipped 12 seats from red to blue and won the majority in the Pennsylvania State House. We have a thrilling one-seat majority. It is magnificent and marvelous. I will tell you that a one-seat majority is a lot better than a one-seat minority. But every time there's a special election, the majority is on the line. So we actually have one coming up on May 16th in Delaware County. We had a couple out in Allegheny County in February, and of course, we're getting ready to protect and expand the majority in 2024. We have some great people up here. Speaker Joanna McClinton, our leader Matt Bradford. There are just a lot of really good Democrats doing great things up here in Pennsylvania. And I'm excited as we head into 2024; Trevor Southerland, the majority maker, left Virginia and took your majority with you.
Michael Pope
Oh, ouch.
Trevor Southerland
You know, I think I think they're gonna get that House majority back in Virginia this year. I know they're working hard. And I think we're gonna see it swing back and have both the Senate and the House blue at the end of this year.
Thomas Bowman
Alright, well, stay tuned to find out. That's it for this week's episode of Pod Virginia.
