Virginia 2020 Election Results: A bipartisan analysis with Bearing Drift’s Grand New Podcast
Michael Pope
Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that usually examines the transition of power from Republican to Democrat here in Virginia. This week, we're going to do something a little different. We're joined by our friends at Bearing Drift and their podcast, Grand New Podcast, we're joined by Matt Colt Hall and Michael Allers. Thanks for joining us.
Matt Colt Hall
Thank you for having us.
Michael Allers
Thank you, I feel honored.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. So let's just dive right in. Guys, we've got a lot to unpack about the 2020 election. And I guess we should just start at the top. Let's discuss the Presidential and Mark Warner. So where do we want to start on the Presidential? What do you think the narrative is in Virginia?
Matt Colt Hall
I think we are slowly but surely becoming like a Maryland or a Massachusetts, where if you run like a Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, or you run as Larry Hogan, there is a shot but Republicans are too stupid to run somebody like that here in Virginia, so we keep failing miserably.
Michael Allers
Matt, I would actually say it's more like New Jersey, not too dissimilar to Maryland. It takes a Chris Christie or Christine Todd Whitman to break through. It always seems like Virginia is unlike Maryland, and New York and California, where there is a strong tradition of conviction, I guess, going back to Patrick Henry, and people would rather be right than win sometimes. And I think that seems to be the issue in Virginia.
Thomas Bowman
Michael, what what are you hearing? What what are people saying to you? I'm sure you've done a number of interviews.
Michael Pope
One of the people that I interviewed about this, is former Delegate David Ramadan, he's now at the Schar School at George Mason University, and he has some advice for Republicans.
David Ramadan
They have to denounce Trumpism, they have to denounce white supremacy, and go back to the basics of conservative principles, versus winking at white supremacy and nationalism.
Michael Pope
Matt Colt Hall, do Virginia Republicans need to denounce Trumpism?
Matt Colt Hall
That, um, do they need to denounce white supremacy? Absolutely. But do they need to denounce Trumpism?
Thomas Bowman
How do you separate the two?
Matt Colt Hall
Hmm. We have voters who identify with Donald Trump who will never vote again, because we're not going to have another Donald Trump candidate. So it's a complicated question. There are Trump voters out there who do not have views...are not white supremacists. They're not bad people. They just want to be heard and they want to be listened to, especially in Western, Southwestern Virginia. They want to just be heard, and they want somebody to pay attention to their issues. And so that's a that's a hard, that's a hard question to ask.
Michael Allers
I don't think it's a hard question to ask, actually. I think you can have populism without racism, you do not have to support the Confederacy to support the working man, or the hard working entrepreneur, or the immigrant that wants to get ahead in this country or the state. It's like straining rice, we put the rice in the little strainer. All right, and the racism or any dog whistles need to be drained out. But you could still have a populist message that works for the folks, hardworking folks in Northern Virginia, and where Matt is in Southwest.
Thomas Bowman
You know, one thing that might be curious to do is to kind of define our terms here. So how would you define what Trumpism is?
Michael Allers
Trumpism, at least for me, is an embrace of protectionism, is an embrace of jobs for Americans, putting America first, as he likes to say, and I think for far too long, the Republican politics, as we've all seen, I think what contributed to the rise of Donald Trump, and the people that thought putting Jeb Bush forward would be a good idea, that people were looking for a fighter, people wanted to have pride in America again, people wanted those jobs to come back overseas, and that connects with those voters.
Michael Pope
And what about this debate we're hearing from inside of the Democratic Party, between the Abigail Spanberger wing of the Democratic Party and the AOC wing of the Democratic Party, in terms of socialism, and defund the police and the message that's going to win? You know, historically speaking, when the President comes into office, that first midterm, the party in power gets hit really hard. And so I think, heading into 2022, that's an election cycle, where historically we've seen the party in power, in this case, the Democrats losing seats. And Thomas, I'll actually put the question to you, do you think the Democrats are going to be attacked by this argument that we've heard from Republicans, that you want to defend the police, and you're not for Law and Order, and you're a bunch of communists? And is that an argument that's going to make Democrats lose seats?
Thomas Bowman
If you listen to the whole recording of what Spanberger was saying, and I was just talking to a friend of the podcast, Trevor Southerland about this the other day, Spanberger was saying, don't say what you don't mean, if you don't mean, defund the police, don't say it. Just because it fits on a bumper sticker, doesn't make it a good slogan. That's what she's saying. And you know, there are people on the in the Democratic Party who consider themselves like DSA, who do want to defund the police, but as far as responsible, progressive policy arguments, that is not actually what they mean, if you compare it to what Republicans mean, when they say defund Planned Parenthood, where they want a zeroing out of Planned Parenthood funds, that's not actually what Democratic activists and progressives are saying, for the most part. And Spanberger's point was, say, like, find a new slogan, one that accurately represents what it is you're trying to do, because the Republicans are just going to kill us with defund the police if you keep pushing that bumper sticker talking point. And I don't necessarily disagree with her. And I think it just depends on the district, right? So one, we're going to have new district lines, so I don't think it's necessarily a given that Spanberger is gonna get hurt in 2022, we just have to see what the redistricting map looks like. But the other thing is, you can't go swiping at a whole wing of the party less than 48 hours after the election. And I would say that's probably a rookie move by Abigail Spanberger there, and you can't win, unless progressives bust their butts for you in these in these swing suburban districts, long term, Democrats will not be able to win without massive input by progressives. And so I don't think it's a smart thing to like, come right out the gate swinging at your own party.
Matt Colt Hall
So I want to address this. And I would respectfully disagree with my friend, Thomas Bowman. I just think it was, for Abigail, it was such a, I almost want to call it a profile encourage, like it was to stand up to the Democratic Party and say, "We cannot and we should not do this." And I love this quote, where she said, "We never need to use social socialist or socialism again, we lost good members about that. If we are classifying Tuesday as a success, we will get fucking torn apart in 2022." For her to say that and have the courage to be able to speak up, I was just amazed at that. And I really wonder, can the Democratic Party cannot go in this direction, because you're going to scare voters. And and especially, you know, in places where we can't talk about defunding the police in rural America, because we know for a fact that, you know, if they have less funds to actually respond to calls, that means that that call that should for a police officer that would only take 20 minutes, is now going to take 40 minutes because there's less officers on duty. So I think it was a real profile encouraged moment for Abigail Spanberger. And kudos to her for standing up to the progressive arm of the Democratic Party. So I'd have to respectfully disagree with Thomas there.
Michael Allers
Well, Matt and Thomas, I think she knew it was going to be late.
Thomas Bowman
Quite possible.
Michael Allers
And I think because she understands what it is to be a Democrat in a Trump friendly district. Virginia might be trending blue, but Virginia is the party of Abigail Spanberger, Terry McAuliffe, Chamber of Commerce Democrats who believe in public safety. And I think that's who Virginia always is. And I think, I think absolutely, Abigail Spanberger drew the line. And I think Joe Biden's biggest enemy is not going to be Republicans, it's not going to be Spanberger, it's going to be progressives and their version of the Freedom Caucus.
Thomas Bowman
I think it might be McConnell, but yeah, I like so I actually, I hear what you're saying. And I know you guys characterize it in terms of like, disagree. I don't know that both things can't be true at once, right? I don't think that it's a fight between left and right. And I think, did AOC take bait? Yeah, probably she we don't need to be swinging at in either direction. Speaking, you know, as a Democrat, I don't like I don't really want to see Democrats fighting right now. We've got the probably, in my opinion, the next 65 days, or however long it is till Inauguration are going to be the most dangerous because Trump's kind of like a cornered rat or like a cornered animal, right? And he's like, his life is gonna get miserable as soon as he's not in office. Like he's got stuff that he can't hide from that Biden, even if he wanted to be magnanimous, couldn't pardon, right? It's as simple as that.
Michael Allers
I think Biden would though, because I think Biden understands that.
Thomas Bowman
He can't pardon at a state level. So it doesn't matter if Biden wants to be magnanimous, Trump's life gets miserable.
Michael Pope
On the issue of tone, on Election night, I went to the Warner vic- wasn't really a victory party. It was a Warner media availability. And it's actually the first time that I've left my house and actually interviewed somebody in person since March. And so it was at this press availability, where, this is minutes after the polls closed, and the AP immediately called it for Warner, and he's giving us, essentially, a victory speech. He talked about the difficult situation facing the country and Virginia right now, and this is what he said.
Mark Warner
And the only way that we're going to be able to build back better is if Americans become united. That means ending the kind of attack rhetoric and mean spirited-ness that too often has infected our political discourse.
Michael Pope
Is it too naive to believe that America can end the attack rhetoric that has infected our political discourse?
Matt Colt Hall
I think it is naive. I think it's absolutely naive, because we will never have another, as Republicans, I firmly believe we will never have another Mitt Romney-esque presidential candidate, we're never going to have the nice guy. Because the voters just won't go for it. They'll be like, "Next," because we had the opportunity to nominate Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, we had all the opportunity in the world and we passed on it. And we have to think about, we will never get those voters to come out again, if we run nice, corporate, you know, here I am in my $5,000 Brooks Brothers suit, let me talk about capital gains taxes, nevermind your little manufacturing job, I don't care about that, I care about the geo- geopolitical politics of making sure that job can be shipped to China.
Michael Pope
I'm curious about the dynamics here in Virginia. So if you think about the future of the Republican Party, the Republicans have had a really hard time winning statewide since the era of Bob McDonnell. And you know, one thing that is striking is that we're now at a point where the Democrats sort of run the table on everything. And it wasn't that long ago that Republicans held basically every statewide office, and they, they kind of ran the table. In fact, on Election night, at that Warner event, I ran into Tim Kaine, and I was able to chat with him about the Election night results. And while I was speaking to him, actually the Associated Press called Virginia, and I asked him, you know, like, this is a striking turnaround considering when you, Senator Kaine, first ran for office back in 2001, Virginia was essentially a red state, and now Virginia is a blue state. This is how he responded to that.
Tim Kaine
When Mark and I ran in 2001, I mean, Republicans had everything, electoral votes, both U.S. senators, all statewide officials, the congressional delegation, both houses of the state legislature, we, we have over the last 20 years, we've engineered the biggest political turnaround in the United States of any of the 50 states.
Michael Pope
The biggest political turnaround. Does anyone dispute Senator Kaine on that, and if that's the case, what does that mean about the future of Virginia?
Michael Allers
No, I think absolutely. I mean, it's true, they, hey, what a comeback for them. But here's where Republicans need to find the needle. Bob McDonell's message of pro jobs, you know, transportation, that could win today. I thought we had that candidate with Ed Gillespie. And if you look at Ed Gillespie's 2014 race, he almost picked off Mark Warner. He was pro immigration. He was pro jobs, who's pro growth, and that almost won. But then in 2017, unfortunately, Gillespie got scared by the crazy Corey people, who are now going to be the Amanda Chase people. And he got scared and co opted their message. And you had a guy from New Jersey, defending Confederate statues? That shouldn't have happened. And that was a distraction. And he could have beaten Ralph Northam if he didn't go down that rabbit hole and these these cultural hills to die on.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, and the other thing, Mike, when we talk about Ed Gillespie that, um, I think he ran way too conservative in that primary. He sat on about $2 million where he could have just hammered the crap out of Corey Stewart, and he probably should have, but we've had such a dramatic shift in Virginia. I saw a tweet during the election cycle, I believe it was Jeff Shapiro talked about he remembered in 2004, when John Kerry was going to make a play for Virginia, he opened an office in Richmond, everybody got excited, press releases. Two weeks later, office was closed, staffers were shipped out. Now, we're, fast forward 16 years later, and the Trump campaign wasn't really here. I mean, they handed out signs. They would knock doors here and there, but the Trump campaign wasn't in Virginia.
Michael Allers
Well, their main headquarters was in Arlington, wasn't it?
Matt Colt Hall
I mean, headquarters was in Arlington, let's be real, but that's only because it's close to D.C. Like the actual Trump apparatus, the only thing they were really doing is like targeted door knocking. And every once in a while they would hand out 5000 yard signs. We weren't on the radar. And so yes, I agree with Senator Kaine, we have dramatically shifted.
Thomas Bowman
Alright, well, let's take a break. Transition Virginia's here with Grand New Podcast's Matt Colt Hall, Michael Allers. I'm Thomas Bowman. Our co host is Michael Pope. We'll be right back to discuss the congressional races.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about Election 2020 and who's up, and who's down, and what it means for the future. Let's look at the congressional races. Now, Virginia has 11 congressional districts, and in this election, they all held. All the incumbents won and the Republicans were able to hang on to that fifth congressional district. Let's start there. That was actually the most drama there, is in that fifth congressional district. Denver Riggleman, of course, was not able to hang on. Bob Good unseated him and that strange drive thru kind of primary that happened over the summer. And lots of Democrats were hoping that Cameron Webb would be able to knock them off. Obviously, that did not happen. So we've got Congressman Bob Good headed to Washington D.C.
Michael Allers
That's a scary sentence.
Matt Colt Hall
It is a scary sentence. I'm not happy about it.
Michael Pope
When we do the transcription Thomas, how are we going to spell what Matt Colt Hall just said? I don't know.
Michael Allers
It- Matt just had an aneurysm.
Thomas Bowman
Are you alive, Matt still?
Matt Colt Hall
I'm alive. But I'm a very frustrated person about this race. Because, I just it's it's frustrating, because you have...Cameron Webb was an extremely smart, articulate well put together. We had him as a guest on our podcast. You had him on a guest on your podcast. He is just a bright individual. And Bob, you know, Bob is going to be the most irrelevant congressman in the delegation in Virginia. He will probably be the the most irrelevant person, only besides Marjorie Taylor Greene, in the U.S. Congress, they'll both be the most irrelevant people in the Congress. Nobody will listen to them. They'll probably get thrown on the House Committee on staplers, because they'll be irrelevant, nobody really cares what they say.
Michael Allers
You're going to try and wrestle Jim Jordan.
Matt Colt Hall
He's gonna try and wrestle Jim Jordan, because of that terrible, God awful ad. Oh, my God, it was awful. Um, you know, but I mean, we're right back where we were with Dave Brat at Bearing Drift, we always call Dave Brat, the most ineffective member of the U.S. House of Representatives. I think that Bob Good will continue that title, with the exception of Marjorie Taylor Greene, they will both be so ineffective, that nobody will ever pay attention to them. And they'll just be like, whatever.
Michael Allers
Yeah, but that guy's you know, as well as I do. If Donald Trump was not at the top of the ticket, and this was in 2018, or in 2022, Bob Good would have lost. I think Bob Good benefited from just down ballot. Even though Cameron did appeal to some Trump voters. I don't think this is the last we've seen from Cameron Webb, and post redistricting, it's it's going to be interesting what the fifth looks like, or if potentially we get a new congressional district, because I do think Cameron Webb will eventually go to Washington, in one form or another.
Thomas Bowman
Let's talk some numbers here. I don't know what the proportion of registered voters is to population here. But I can tell just by looking at the numbers on V Pap, that Dems did not turn out enough votes period, and the weakness is in their absentee ballot program where Charlottesville City, they're supposed to be their best locality, had fewer than 500 absentee votes. That doesn't like...what are you doing? Like? I don't I'm not trying to be rude or disrespectful. But if you wanted to win, you didn't do it.
Michael Allers
Thomas, do you think it's door knocking, though? Because I mean, even though I mean, I'm outside of the fifth, my dad still lives there. I I lived a large portion of my life in the fifth. When I was there, I didn't see any door knocking efforts.
Thomas Bowman
I can't speak for that campaign, because I don't know if they were door knocking or not. But I do know that Dems generally, we're not door knocking in this campaign season. And look, AOC is right. And the lessons that Dems should be learning is that one, you can't win without a robust field campaign, all of the targeted squad, that thought they were going to be in tough races, decided they didn't have a choice but to maintain their field programs, and they won handily, whereas Dems who were supposed to have easier races, did not win handily, or they even lost. So you're right. I think Dems can't win big without a field campaign that like, right there. I've always been a believer in field. Also, you need to be very smart when you're dropping ads and your digital stuff. So AOC points out that Dems, many Dems who lost, or should have won and didn't, had no coordinated digital campaign in the final weeks before the campaign. In fact, many of them were spending zero dollars. So if you're not knocking doors, like what are you doing, like mail? Like we're past the direct mail age, for the most part, like yes, there are some voters in districts where it matters. But for the most part, the whole game is digital. Well, what are you doing if you're if you don't have a digital spend, if you're not knocking doors as a Democrat, you can't win. And so clearly, there's a disconnect between the people that Dem's thought were gonna come out and vote for them, and the people who did think they were going to come out and vote for them, but very, like, clearly, some basic things need to happen for Democrats. And that is you have to run a field campaign. And you have to be strategic with your messaging in the weeks before an election.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, and let's talk about this Thomas, I'm looking at the VPAP map. And um Fluvanna County, along with Nelson County, Prince Edward and Brunswick. Now, these are all counties that are rural, and you've got Cameron Webb winning in those counties. And so they didn't completely mess everything up on the Webb campaign. They were winning some of those counties that are considered, you know, traditional rural counties. So I don't think they're, they completely made a mistake. But I will say they had a lot of money. They had so much money and and it just didn't work out. And so I have to agree that maybe they should have ran a more aggressive field campaign.
Michael Allers
I also think a Denver Riggleman formal endorsement would have helped.
Thomas Bowman
Agreed.
Michael Allers
I was looking for that because they met at the distillery and I'm like, Okay, here we go. And then nothing.
Thomas Bowman
I agree. I agree that should have happened.
Matt Colt Hall
Lest we all forget Denver Riggleman still wants to run for office as some kind of quasi conservative in Virginia. And if you go and endorse a Democrat, like, game over game set match, they won't let you. I mean, even in the party, they won't let you, they won't let you be a member of the party, much less a candidate for the party. So I kind of understand why he didn't do it, but like it would have changed the whole day.
Michael Allers
But if he's running as an independent for Governor, it doesn't matter. You know, that's kind of what I thought. It seemed like, cuz remember Denver? And with what, two weeks before the Election, he goes, "Maybe I won't vote for Donald Trump," you know, like he was already kind of digging himself out of the Republican apparatus. So this would have, I think, what two weeks to go? I think that could have put Cameron Webb over.
Michael Pope
Let's look elsewhere here on the congressional map. So Elaine Luria was able to hang on in the second congressional district against Scott Taylor, and the aforementioned Abigail Spanberger, was able to hold this seventh against Nick Freitas. Now the Lauria seat and Spanberger seat are two Trump districts. We saw across the country, a lot of Democrats in Trump districts lose. And there was a lot of speculation that Luria and Spanberger might not be able to hold these seats because they were in fact, Trump districts. What do we think of the performance of Scott Taylor and Nick Freitas?
Matt Colt Hall
Can I just comment and say how fucking annoying it is that we lost Virginia Beach, like Republicans are supposed to win Virginia Beach. We're supposed to just have that military boat locked down.
Michael Allers
But Matt, it's always flip flopped.
Matt Colt Hall
No, we always used to win Virginia Beach, and then we just let it go.
Thomas Bowman
We'll come back to the second. But for Spanberger and Freitas, as to the original question, I think Freitas overperformed. expectations.
Matt Colt Hall
I agree.
Michael Allers
Well, I will say this look, I've known Nick ever since he jumped in. I helped actually run his first campaign. Nick, I think should have possibly sat this one out to run for Governor 21, because that feels wide open. But I will say he overperformed expectations but Spanberger, I mean, held on because she is, really, the deciding vote in this country. She's a suburban mom. Uh, you know, and a working mom. And I think that really spoke to people. with Elaine Luria, I mean, I think, honestly, with Scott Taylor, it doesn't help. I believe if Glenn Davis was the candidate in VA 2 he could have won. And I think Scott Taylor is always running for office. I think Nick has to be careful, because he, he, you know, this is a second try at federal office and with the write in snafu, um, Nick does have to watch that, because you don't want to turn into that. But Scott Taylor, he has run too many damn times for any office under the sun.
Thomas Bowman
Look, no disagreement from me on any of those points. Spanberger held on, because you're right. She is kind of the modern Democratic Party for the most part, suburbanite woman. She happens to be a white woman, which is where I guess the Henrico Dems are, but suburban women are the Democratic Party right now.
Michael Allers
Plus, Thomas, you know, and Matt has to know look. I mean, I'm a Yankee. Matt knows that. I'm originally from New York. Um, there's a lot more of us that are coming down to Henrico.
Matt Colt Hall
The Yankees are invading Virginia.
Thomas Bowman
Come one come all.
Michael Allers
But but here's the thing, though. We have to adapt to that. That's that's what we're not catching on. We can't say, "Oh, the Yankees are coming. The Yankees are coming." If the Yankees are coming, well then convert the Yankees because I'll tell you right now, we don't want to live up there with high taxes.
Thomas Bowman
Let's just look at what Texas did. They thought that they would be real brilliant and invite a bunch of people from California over who liked the thought about no taxes and low government, and then wanted the transportation system that California had. Wanted all the other things that California had, and they start liberalizing the state now, it did not flip blue in 2020. And if you talk to most of the Texas Democrats, they never expected it to flip blue.
Michael Allers
I'm still sweating over it though. And we better wake up. Georgia is a wake up call.
Thomas Bowman
The year they've been saying over and over is 2024 and maybe 2022. That's, they've been very consistent on that one for the last five or so years that I've been in discussions with them.
Michael Allers
Thomas, this is what Democrats are smart and Republicans have to take notes. You guys will...Democrats will infiltrate. School board, city council, dog catcher, build up that apparatus, every single position matters, every localized race matters, House of Delegate's, State Senate. And then you have the state. They did it in Virginia, they're going to do it in Georgia. They're going to do it in Texas, eventually, if we don't wake up. So it's like instead of being unfriendly to the Yankees, look, the Yankees escaped the North for a reason. Let's welcome them. Because there's more people I believe now, born outside of Virginia than in Virginia now.
Michael Pope
I want to ask a question about Abigail Spanberger. So these comments that she made about the future of the Democratic Party, and defund the police, and the potential for Democrats to be attacked as socialists, this is really kind of, put her on the map. I mean, since the election, she has become a household word, in way that she wasn't before. Do you think that Congresswoman Spanberger has now sort of set herself up to be the the anti AOC? Or like the voice of the moderate wing of the House Democrats?
Michael Allers
Absolutely. And I think I would say to her point, she has allies, because she's the one that's going to get deals done. Her, Mikie Sherrill held on too, didn't she in New Jersey? It's going to be that wing of the Democratic Party, the suburban moms, working moms, that are pragmatic in their solutions that will outlast and outpace AOC, AOC will live on on the internet. But when it comes to actually the policies that Democrats want to push, it's going to take an Abigail Spanberger. And she knows that, and I quite think she's positioned herself. That's why I think she said those comments 100% on purpose. She knew it was going to be leaked, because she wants to take that mantle.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, and the thing I want to say about Abigail Spanberger is that she is a Chamber of Commerce Democrat. You know, for so long, the Richmond business community was spoiled by Eric Cantor, they loved Eric Cantor, and then Cantor loss. And so they had to put up with Dave Brat. And it got to the point where the Richmond business community wouldn't do anything with Brat, so they found somebody who could beat Dave Brat because they couldn't beat Brat in a primary or convention because the Republicans were just like, "Oh my God, we love him, even though he's completely ineffective." So let's just get a Democrat who will talk about her issues as a Chamber of Commerce Democrat, she can go to a, she can go to a union meeting, but at the same time, she can walk into a country club and be like, "I can talk to business owners without sounding like an idiot." So I think there will be a wing of the Democratic Party that is what I call, a Chamber of Commerce Democrat, and I think she could be the leader of that wing of the Democratic Party, especially in the House of Representatives.
Thomas Bowman
Alright let's talk the second district real quick, because you guys have been very eager to get to Luria. The reality is, not only was Scott Taylor, a uniquely bad candidate looking at felony election fraud from the last time he ran for office. And by the way, those staffers will roll on him if they haven't already. Because I always will.
Michael Allers
That's why Republicans have to pay staffers more.
Thomas Bowman
Everybody has to pay staffers more. Shout out to the Campaign Guild of America and IBEW who just unionized the Democratic Party. But anyway, the like the stallion machine, which has dominated politics, in Virginia Beach, is facing an existential crisis right now. And they're not going to maintain their hold on the locality, especially when all of those military voters as you say, you know, I'm core millennial, right. So the War on Terror started, of course, in 2001, we went into Afghanistan, and then subsequently Iraq in 2003. We've been at war my entire life, and my generation got like, sent to these same wars, and a lot of people go into the military as Republicans. And they come out as Democrats, and especially the officer corps 80%, against the president here. So the reality is that you can't take vets as Republicans, you can't take vets and military, active duty, for granted anymore. And Democrats, by the way, I don't think they should be taking the suburbs for granted, because wealthy white people and wealthy...wealthy people, in general, have never been main constituency of the Democratic Party.
Michael Allers
They run it though.
Thomas Bowman
They sure do.
Michael Allers
That's, that's that's the thing. I mean, Thomas that's a good point. I think you know, what the number one lesson for 2020 federal and state is this. No, one's a monolith. Vets aren't a monolith, Black voters aren't a monolith, Latinos are not a monolith. No one's a monolith. Everyone is up for grabs. And I think that's why an insane amount of voters turned out for Biden and an insane amount of voters turned out for Trump. Now, I think with Scott Taylor, the reason I knew he was gonna lose is because he took his photo for when he was running for Senate with the Blue Ridge Mountains behind him and stuck that on a Virginia Beach ad.
Matt Colt Hall
That is true.
Michael Allers
That was the moment I told Matt, this guy's not winning!
Matt Colt Hall
Those were Blue Ridge Mountains in his Virginia Beach photo. It was like bro.
Michael Allers
No battleships in the background. There's no Bay, there's no boardwalk. There's the Blue Ridge Mountains, 10 hours outside your district. Great job.
Thomas Bowman
All right. Let's take a break. We could talk about this all day. But we all want to get to the redistricting amendment. So Matt Colt Hall, Michael Allers with Grand New Podcast. Thank you for being on Transition Virginia. We'll be right back.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about Election 2020, and who's up and who's down, and who won and who lost. One of the big winners in this election was supporters of Amendment One. This is the redistricting amendment that creates a new 16 member redistricting commission. So it takes the power out of the hands of the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate to draw maps, and instead puts it in this newly created 16 member commission, eight elected officials, and a citizen members. Now this group actually has an extremely tight deadline, the first deadline is November 15. That's just a few days from now. That's the deadline for the Chief Justice of the Virginia Supreme Court to issue a list of 10 potential judges, to leaders in the General Assembly. And the leaders in the General Assembly will then choose four judges and the four judges will choose a fifth judge. So you got your panel of judges. December 1, by the way, is the deadline for leaders in the General Assembly to name the Super Eight redistricting law makers. These are the eight elected officials that will be part of this commission. And then January 1 is the deadline for that five judge panel to name the citizen members. So just in the next few weeks, we've got a flurry of activity on this commission that didn't even exist really a week ago. How is this commission going to work? And how is this going to change things in Virginia? Open question to anyone that wants to answer it.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, Republicans in Virginia, across the board, are considering this a big ol' win. Because we know that Eileen Filler-Corn, and Dick Saslaw would have drawn the maps so bad that the only Republican left might be Morgan Griffith, but he would have to represent three quarters of the state. So we're...Republicans are considering this a victory. Just however, the amendment was so complicated wording, like it was hard to like, make it digestible. And I wonder if some people voted yes just because they didn't know what it was because it was just such a complex system.
Michael Pope
Is that logical voting for something because you don't know what it is? I mean, wouldn't they...
Matt Colt Hall
I would, I would say no, I would say no, it's not. It's not a logical decision.
Thomas Bowman
Well, it was the way it read sounded very nice.
Matt Colt Hall
It was worded beautifully.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, well, yeah. And one of the reasons Democrats, the party, had an objection was because, in their opinion, it was worded in a very misleading way. I think ultimately, you're just going to have districts that look really similar to the way they're currently drawn. And here is my rationale for that. Because you don't want two members of the General Assembly objecting to these maps and kicking it up to the Supreme Court, because it's a pain in the ass now, if that happens, and it's a huge risk if that happens, you're going to just try to make sure everybody's happy. And you're going to draw districts that more or less bring the same people back year over year. I think that is what's going to happen with these districts, frankly.
Michael Pope
I think but piggybacking on that, Thomas, I think the threat of the Supreme Court getting involved, and the Supreme Court drawing a map, is something that nobody wants. I think a lot of people, a lot of elected officials, members of the General Assembly, would be really concerned if they were not involved at all in the mapmaking process, and some strangers and the Supreme Court might be drawing the maps and then therefore, you might not be in your district, and your chief financial supporter might not be in your district. And you're really sort of gambling, you're throwing the dice by handing it over to this group of strangers. At least, if you're involved in the process, that you've got some kind of control over it, even if you're not totally in control of it. So I think the threat of it going to the Supreme Court is that's a gamble.
Thomas Bowman
If your district is the one that's going to get lost, you're gonna kick it up to the Supreme Court if you can, because you've got nothing to lose. So yes, I hear, collectively, 98 of the hundred members of the General Assembly might not want to kick it up to the Supreme Court, but two members is all it takes. And if two members lose their districts, they're gonna want to kick it up to the Supreme Court because they have nothing else to lose.
Michael Pope
Just to be clear about the whole two member thing, it's two of the eight Super Members. It's not two members of the House, like it's not any two members of the House can send it to the Supreme Court. It's two members of that Super Eight. So if we talk about the potential people that might be on that, in the House, you're talking about, Simon Price, Gilbert Bell, people like that, in the Senate, you're talking about Locke, Barker, Vogel, Cosgrove, people like that. So is it two of those people is what would send it to the Supreme Court. And I'm just I just don't see that happening.
Matt Colt Hall
Can I ask a question of Michael Pope for just a second? Is there a requirement in the Amendment that the representation be proportional to geography, meaning that, and it's always a worry of mine being from Southwest Virginia. Is every portion of the state going to be represented? My one fear is that Southwest Virginia is going to be left out in the cold.
Michael Pope
Well you're correct to be worried that Southwest Virginia will 100% no doubt about it, lose seats. And this is the point of redistricting. In fact, this was why back in the 1700s, when they created the system, that's why they created it. So areas that gain larger population, will get more seats, and areas that lose population, will lose seats. And I think it's pretty clear to everybody, that's a part of Virginia that has lost population, and therefore Thomas is right there. They're going to lose seats in Southwest. And so you're going to have members out there that are not going to be happy about any redistricting maps that are drawn because there will be fewer seats out there in Southwest. And that is something that is going to play out as this process moves forward.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, and you've got to be careful. I'm just as just looking at the map. And and you know, we have a lot of legislators who live very close together, especially if you talk about those House of Delegates districts in rural Southwest Virginia, I think about my friend Terry Kilgore, he lives in Gate City, and Israel Quinn lives 20 minutes away in Bristol. And then Will Wampler lives another 15 minutes up the road in Abbington but they represent three different districts. They could easily, I mean, they could easily draw all three of them and you've upset Israel, who's in House leadership, Terry Kilgore, who's in House leadership, and Will Wampler who's a freshman, and you've just drawn them in within a 40 mile radius of each other.
Michael Allers
But it's also I mean, no, no one is not going to be a perfect win for everybody. And that's the thing, but this is the closest we have to, I think, you know, staving off Virginia turning into a New York.
Thomas Bowman
You know, that all could very well be true. I'm, I wonder what happens if we were to wargame real quick. Will Morefield and Terry Kilgore or Terry Kilgore and Israel Quinn is much better, getting drawn into the same district.
Michael Allers
Terry wins.
Matt Colt Hall
Terry wins duh.
Michael Allers
Kill is in his last name.
Michael Pope
But that didn't work for his brother, though.
Thomas Bowman
The drama is not in the final outcome, the drama is in the race to get there. So what happens, like what does this look like and in Appalachia and, you know, Kilgore is one of those characters who is almost bigger than the Republican Party in a lot of ways, at least in that part of the state. So what what's going on here? If we have a free for all in rural Southwest Virginia, what does that look like?
Matt Colt Hall
Well, I think maybe you've got the wrong...I've always heard and it's always been speculated, that they will never draw Kilgore out of his seat. The question is, will they draw the two Wills out of their seat? So Delegate Will Morefield of Tazewell County and Delegate Will Wampler of Washington County, getting them drawn into the same district, and they will murder each other in a primary, although I've heard Morefield in the past, has been more open to run in a convention, slash mass meeting. So you never know what will happen there.
Thomas Bowman
Well, wouldn't he get...Well, based off the characteristic of Will Morefield and then the people who vote in caucuses or conventions, why would Will Morefield ever want that?
Matt Colt Hall
Because he can get all the coal miners that work for his daddy to go, "Yeah, yes." Will Morefield is connected to the coal industry. And so he can get all those coal miners to show up in a mass meeting. So that's why in 2017 when he had a mass meeting, he got all the coal miners to show up for it.
Michael Allers
Yeah, but Matt, what if the other guys just as big as pro coal?
Matt Colt Hall
Nah, I don't you can't get more pro coal than Will Morefield.
Thomas Bowman
Also we've tried that and the reality is the Democratic Party is phasing it out. So what you would what you would the Democrat that would be, in my opinion, mildly successful in coal country, is going to be one with a realistic plan for them to mine something else.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, and I tell you what, though, Starla Kaiser gave us the biggest scare in 2019 in Southwest Virginia. And so if they can run somebody like a Starla Kaiser, that's gonna that's going to put a seat in play down here. There's no question about that. What I'm concerned about in redistricting, and just play this out with me, is that we're going to have to draw some of the congressional seats together. And you now have Congressman Bob Good, who sits in Campbell County, and they could easily draw him into the same district as Congressman Ben Klein.
Thomas Bowman
Do it, do it.
Matt Colt Hall
Oh now Thomas...
Thomas Bowman
You spoke that into existence, man. I wasn't even thinking about it.
Matt Colt Hall
But here's the thing, and this is what, and I've been wanting to play this out. Because the people who are behind Bob Good, were the same people that lost to Ben Klein in that 2018 convention. So they're looking for blood. And if it's a member on member Congressional Convention, because you know, it'll be a convention because Republicans are dumb. Um, it will be the biggest bloodbath that Virginia Republicans will ever see, is Congressman Bob Good versus Congressman-
Michael Allers
And we've been talking about that for a long time, because I mean, Ben Cline simply just isn't a fighter.
Matt Colt Hall
Well, Ben is a fighter, but he's gonna have to fight more than he has before.
Thomas Bowman
My impression is that there's not a lot of Republicans who actually like Ben Cline. In fact, one of the reason for a lot of the General Assembly endorsements he got, was so that he would get out of the General Assembly.
Matt Colt Hall
Ben Cline is my Congressman and I like the job that he does. He is a great member, and I hope that he stays in Congress for a long time.
Thomas Bowman
I doubt he listens to Transition Virginia, you can say whatever you really feel, Matt, don't don't be held hostage.
Matt Colt Hall
Hey, I have a Ben Cline sticker on my car. I love the man. I think he's a great congressmen.
Michael Allers
Yeah, but I definitely I mean, I definitely see that and then you have, you know, whatever the fifth looks like that, that becomes Cameron Webb's, or if Charlottesville gets drawn into the seventh, right, where Cameron Webb lives, um, what could happen is Spanberger goes to the Senate where I think she'd be very effective. Um, you know, especially building coalitions. If Tim Kaine or Mark Warner retires, and then Webb has that seat.
Matt Colt Hall
Or if Kaine or Warner go to the Cabinet.
Michael Allers
Yeah, that's very possible.
Matt Colt Hall
If Kaine or Warner go to the cabinet, we've got an open Senate seat. And it's Abigail Spanberger's for the taking.
Michael Allers
For the taking.
Thomas Bowman
Is it Spanberger? Because, so I was talking about this with UVA's policy podcast at some point, the and I agree, like that...We haven't really explored it in Virginia is what comes next if, especially if we get an open Senate spot. And I think, by the way, that McConnell keeping the Senate leadership, for now at least, makes it more likely, not less likely, that that a Senate seat in Virginia opens up because you're now looking at who will McConnell say yes to, right? And then also who won't hurt the Democratic Party if we elevate them, right? And so then you'll have an era of patronage and moving ahead in the Democratic Party. And I think we should not necessarily take for granted that it would be Spanberger, because I don't know that she's first in line. You've got people like Bobby Scott and Don Beyer that might be appealing to Governor Northam. But we could also open up or get Jennifer McClellan off the bench, right, and appoint Jennifer McClellan to Senate.
Michael Allers
Oh, that's interesting.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And avoid, by the way-
Michael Allers
Or Cameron Webb.
Thomas Bowman
Well, yeah, and again, like that'll be Ralph's call to make but Ralph could potentially, especially if Terry McAuliffe wants to come back and run for Governor can say, "Okay, well, let's have some restorative justice here and just put McClellan in as Senator."
Michael Allers
That would clear the field or his own wife, potentially. Dorothy was eyeing a run at the 10th.
Thomas Bowman
Oh, I don't I don't know that she has elected office in her, but it's wide open if you have the money, so all right. Well, we've got to wrap. We've gone for way over our time. It was great.
Michael Pope
It was a ton of fun. We should do this more often.
Michael Allers
Yeah, let's do it.
Thomas Bowman
Matt Colt Hall and Michael Allers of the Bearing Drifts, Grand New Podcast. Thank you for being on Transition Virginia. I'm Thomas Bowman. I'm joined by Michael Pope. Follow the podcast @TransitionVA on Twitter. Send us an email to TransitionVApodcast@gmail.com. And maybe we'll read it on the show. Join our Patreon community if you've got a question that you definitely want us to ask, and don't forget to like and subscribe and review. Give us five stars so you don't miss the next episode of Transition Virginia.
