Michael Pope

Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in Virginia, I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman. Today on the podcast, the Democratic Primary for Governor. Five Democrats are vying to be the nominee, heading into the fall election season, and the June Primary is only two months away.

Michael Pope

So how does this field of candidates shape up and what will they do if elected? Who's ahead and who's behind? To help us understand this primary, we're joined by the one and only, Dean of the College of Social Sciences at Christopher Newport University. He's the Academic Director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy, and he's one of the sharpest political observers in Virginia. Quentin Kidd, thanks for joining us.

Quentin Kidd

It's really great to be with you.

Michael Pope

Great. So during the first televised debate in the primary this week, Terry McAuliffe was the only person on the stage with the title of Former Governor and he was also the person who had the biggest target on his back. All the candidates seemed really eager to take a shot at the perceived front runner at this race. Now first out of the gate was Former Delegate Jennifer Caroll Foy, who said McAuliffe was not serious about addressing gun violence.

Jennifer Caroll Foy

The reason we haven't curbed gun violence isn't because we don't know how to do it, it is because we have politicians failing to act. And when Terry McAuliffe had the opportunity as Governor to be serious about gun violence, he did a backroom deal with the NRA undermining concealed weapons laws in Virginia, making us all less safe.

Michael Pope

Now she's talking about a 2016 deal where the Governor used a decision from Attorney General Mark Herring to sever reciprocity rights of gun owners in 25 states as leverage to cut a deal. In exchange, Virginia got to take guns away from anyone under a two year protective order for domestic violence offenses, and state police would have to attend all gun shows to provide background checks. Here's the Governor responding to Caroll Foy and check out how he hopes Senator Jennifer McClellan throws him a lifeline.

Terry McAuliffe

That bill she refers to was a bipartisan bill, Senator McClellan helped me on it, as it was a bipartisan bill to bring folks together. It was the toughest domestic violence bill in the United States of America.

Michael Pope

Now, you might have caught McClellan there saying no, as in like, "Don't bring me into this." What do we make of this exchange between the candidates?

Quentin Kidd

Well, you know, I cannot help but go back to Terry McAuliffe's first run for Governor and how much the issue of guns and gun control has moved in Virginia politics. You know, the first time he ran, there had never been a candidate, Democratic or Republican candidate in Virginia, to run and essentially, proudly run as a gun control candidate. And he and McAuliffe you know, mentioned this in the debate, but none of the other, you know, Democrats would touch the issue of gun control. And, you know, they were all sort of leery of past elections where they had even, you know, hinted at the idea of gun control, and it had cost them. And so, McAuliffe runs on gun control or touts it, and people say, "Oh, that, you know, that's a death sentence," and he wins. You know, fast forward to this election cycle, and all of the candidates on stage are not only running on gun control, but they're pushing McAuliffe on the issue of gun control. I just, I think that issue alone speaks to how far Virginia politics has moved in the last 10 years. It's in it's a phenomenal movement. If you want to think about transitions and in politics, it's just a phenomenal movement.

Michael Pope

Now, there was this interesting exchange there between McClellan and McAuliffe, and it wasn't the only one. Later on, the discussion of guns included another weird moment. McAuliffe was listing his agenda on guns, banning assault weapons, banning high capacity magazines, banning ghost guns, and allowing local governments to ban guns at permitted events. Then, McAuliffe said this about McClellan.

Terry McAuliffe

And I as Governor, I had a right wing legislature and I thank you, Senator McClellan, you are with me on a lot of these battles. We had a right wing legislature. We had to veto bill after bill after bill. None of them got through. And I thank you, Senator, for helping me.

Jennifer McClellan

I was proud to work to address gun violence. And once in 2020, we were able to pass about seven bills to address gun violence, including giving local governments the ability to ban weapons at permanent events. We could have gone farther though.

Michael Pope

Once again, McClellan is forced to say, "Don't drag me into this." And she adds, also, one of the things on your agenda is something we've kind of already done. Quentin Kidd, what do we make of this dynamic between McAuliffe and McClellan?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, so I think McAuliffe is clearly the front runner in the race right now. And I think he sees McClellan as either one of two things, either his greatest rival, as we go down, you know, the stretch into the Democratic Primary, into voting in early June, he sees her as either his greatest rival, or, and probably it's both of these, or and or they're in the same lane. And so they're competing for the same set of voters. And so I think McAuliffe's strategy here is to essentially reduce the space between them as much as possible, so that a McClellan leaning voter right now may say, "Well, McAuliffe is in the lead, he's most likely to win. So I'm gonna go ahead and give McAuliffe my vote." And so that may be the strategy that he's pursuing by essentially pulling her very closely. And, you know, I think it is fair to say that, you know, McClellan worked closely with McAuliffe as Governor. I mean, they're in the same lane, politically and ideologically, they're very much alike. And so it's interesting to watch the dynamic between those two because it's a different dynamic than, say, the dynamic between a McAuliffe and any of the other candidates, a Fairfax or Caroll Foy, for example. It's a different dynamic, because I think they're really struggling to attract the same set of voters.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, speaking about that dynamic Quentin Kidd, is there any ice between these two candidates? A few years ago, Terry McAuliffe and Jennifer McClellan were almost like two peas in a pod. Right? They were very close, as you mentioned, very ideologically aligned. And, of course, Jennifer McClellan gets in before Terry announces that he's running again, although it was telegraphed for quite some time. Is there ice between these two candidates now? Is that one thing that we should be looking into or is this you know, electioneering?

Quentin Kidd

I think it's more electioneering, like, like, I think there's ice between Fairfax and and McAuliffe, for example, but I don't know that there's ice between McClellan and McAuliffe as much as there is political rivalry, the sense that sort of your time has passed McAuliffe, it's time to give others the opportunity, you know, that sort of political posturing. I don't get bad blood. But you know, to be fair, you know, neither McAuliffe or McClellan are the kind of personalities that are going to exhibit, put on public display of bad blood. And so I think of this more is not a friendly rivalry. I think it's a serious, you know, disagreement on about whose time it is, to run and to and to be Governor. But I don't think it's deep, more deeply personal than that. I don't get the sense that it is anyway.

Michael Pope

Since you brought up ice with Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, we have to talk about this moment, this explosive moment in the debate. This happened during a discussion of police reform and systemic racism. Fairfax dropped this bomb.

Justin Fairfax

We can't just talk theoretically, about what generally happens, but we have a real world example where I was falsely accused in 2019 from the Washington Post now saying these false accusations made raising that question, and whether it was a rush to judgment. Everyone here on the stage called for my immediate resignation, including Terry McAuliffe three minutes after a press release came out. He treated me like George Floyd, he treated me like Emmett Till, no due process, immediately assumed my guilt.

Michael Pope

This is a really explosive charge. Quentin Kidd, did Terry McAuliffe treat Justin Fairfax like Emmett Till and George Floyd?

Quentin Kidd

I tell you, I think this was the moment of the debate. I was stunned when Justin Fairfax made that statement. It runs against so many waves in our politics right now, the idea that he's accused of, you know, sexual assault, and yet he's going to push back on that and try to couch himself as a victim in the guise of George Floyd or Emmett Till. It really was a stunner to me and he's been pilloried all over social media for it. One of his accusers came out right after the debate and said, "It wasn't a false accusation. I'm not ashamed," She said, "I'm not ashamed of bringing to light what happened to me, etc." So I don't know what that got him. It didn't get him sympathy.

Michael Pope

Well, we are talking about him. I mean, like he did get the buzz around surrounding that comment, right?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, but I don't know that it's the right kind of buzz. I think, you know, when you're in a position of being not the front runner in a five person field, I don't know that it's the right kind of buzz. And so I don't know that it does him any good. I think he could have said, "I've been a victim," without going so far as to equate his situation with George Floyd or Emmett Till, and maybe have gotten the same point across, without the gobsmacked response that seems to have, that he seems to have gotten.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, this moment from Fairfax really gave me Brett Kavanaugh vibes, where he just completely defied any reasonable sense of good decorum. And, you know, obviously, Emmett Till, George Floyd, they were horribly murdered, right? And the fact that Fairfax is still alive, makes it a false comparison period. Fairfax, of course, is accused for being a rapist. I would point out, The Washington Post did not exonerate him. They pointed out some discrepancies in the stories, that did not exonerate Justin Fairfax. So there's a lot of misinformation here. I'd expect more to come, just from fallout. He's really defying the thought that all press is good press, you know, not in this case.

Michael Pope

With Delegate Lee Carter took a broader approach to attacking McAuliffe by lumping him in with all of the candidates on the stage during a discussion of legalizing marijuana.

Lee Carter

I introduced legislation to legalize cannabis in the Commonwealth of Virginia, back when even some of the other candidates on this stage asked me, "Why are you doing this to us in election year?"

Michael Pope

Now Carter has also called for using all of the new tax revenue from taxing marijuana to create a fund for reparations, to account for the Transatlantic Slave Trade and Jim Crow. What do we make of Delegate Carter's position on marijuana and reparations as essentially an attack on McAuliffe?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, so I thought the whole discussion about the legalization of marijuana was interesting, because everybody was tripping over everybody else, trying to claim that they were, you know, first in line to support this legislation, or first in line to try to, you know, submit legislation, etc. Lee Carter, in all fairness, is probably the most politically liberal. I mean, he's a Democratic Socialist. I mean, he probably is the most left on that stage. But he's standing on a stage with two African American women and an African American man, and a former Governor who did things that African American voters really supported, you know, like voting reforms and things like that. And so, as the other white guy on stage, he, he probably needed to distance himself from the rest of the candidates. And he did it, I thought, in a in an interesting way, by linking marijuana legalization and the reform of marijuana laws, with reparations, and Jim Crow, the Jim Crow history in Virginia. And so it was an interesting point. I don't know that it gets him much in the context of an attack on McAuliffe, but it's an interesting collection of thoughts and ideas that he put together in that piece there.

Michael Pope

The other really big attack on McAuliffe was about this controversy surrounding the parole board. Now, Republicans have already signaled this will be one of their major attack lines this fall. Now Senator McClellan used the issue as an attack on McAuliffe.

Jennifer McClellan

Governor McAuliffe had an opportunity to put more money in place for the parole board. Unfortunately, he didn't.

Michael Pope

Is this parole board controversy, something that will work as a line of attack on McAuliffe?

Quentin Kidd

It it very well, could. It certainly, the Republicans have, like you said, signaled that this is going to be a big issue for them. And I think it's going to be a part of a larger kind of criminal justice crime issue that that seems to be shaping up on the Republican side and and McAuliffe you know, the fact that McAuliffe appointed the parole board chair, when he was Governor, does link him to this controversy, even if the controversy itself wasn't under his watch. And so I do think he's gonna have to respond to this. I think he'll respond to it like he did. He'll say, "Hey, I wasn't there when this happened." And he may just brush it off, but I think he's gonna have to deal with it in the fall. Republicans are going to are going to try to hang, you know, this issue, you know, all over him and make him drag it around the entire campaign if he's the Democratic nominee.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, there's no doubt that the Republicans are going to bring it up. I don't really think too many Democrats are going to bring it up, outside of the context of these like, pot shots. But the reality is, nobody votes on the parole board. It's such, like nobody knows how it works. You know, we don't really have parole in Virginia anyway, it's it's limited to people who were incarcerated before a certain point in time when we got rid of parole. So like, the reality is, as controversial as this may be, one, this is more of a scandal for the current administration, not the previous one. And it's not going to stick. Virginia voters vote on education, transportation, and the economy, year after year after year. So go ahead and hit them on it. If I'm a McAuliffe person, I welcome this, because it means the Republicans aren't talking about the things that would get them elected. So all right, well, let's take a break. When we come back, the candidates in their own words, how do they talk about themselves? We'll be right back.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about the Democratic Primary for Governor. And now we're going to talk about how the candidates talk about themselves. The narrative they try to weave about who they are and why they're running. And we're going to start with Governor McAuliffe, who doesn't really need much of an introduction, because voters already know who he is. He's raised $6 million, the most of all of these candidates, and he's clearly the front runner in this race. This is how he explains his reason for running for Governor.

Terry McAuliffe

I will take Virginia to the next level. That is why I've built such a broad coalition, the most members of the General Assembly, the most members of the Black Caucus. Why? I did it before, I took over in the middle of a crisis. We created 200,000 new jobs, and we'll do it again. I'd love your support. Thank you.

Michael Pope

Broad coalition, most endorsements, most money. Quentin Kidd, is this a message that's going to work in a Democratic Primary?

Quentin Kidd

Look, if the polling is accurate, and it probably broadly is, he's the front runner, and the way he's describing himself, the narrative that he's using, is the narrative of a front runner who is attempting to solidify that position. And so, you know, I, as where I sit right now, I would say it is likely to work. It seems like it's working. Because, you know, I don't think we came out of the debate with Terry McAuliffe being in a weaker position. I think we came out of the debate with him either being in the same position, or slightly stronger, in the sense that, you know, he was hit a few times, and it didn't seem to hurt him. And so, yeah, I think, you know, I think I get to how he's describing himself in the context of the party, the Democratic Party itself, and in the context of the, for the people on the stage that he's running against.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I would agree with that. You know, Terry met expectations. I don't know that he wowed anybody. And I don't think we saw Terry running on all cylinders during the Democratic debate, because there was no audience, and Terry McAuliffe is somebody who very much absorbs the energy in the room, and there was no room. So like, I think that's one reason why Terry McAuliffe just met expectations. And I agree, I don't think anybody landed a punch here, certainly not a mortal blow. I think some of the other candidates, and we'll get to them in a second, proved themselves good second choices, or viable alternatives, if something were to happen to Terry, and he were to not be in the race anymore.

Michael Pope

Now our next candidate is Jennifer Caroll Foy. She's a former member of House of Delegates, where she's served a term and a half. She was originally elected in 2017, when she unseated Republican Incumbent, Delegate Mark Dudenhefer. Unlike all the other General Assembly members in this race, she resigned her seat to run for Governor. Now she's raised about $2 million and this is how she talks about herself on the campaign trail.

Jennifer Caroll Foy

I was born and raised in Petersburg, that has one of the highest child poverty rates in Virginia. And when my grandmother who raised me, had a stroke, and became a quadriplegic, I had to make the tough decision between paying for our mortgage, or for the medications keeping her alive. Virginians deserve a governor who has walked in their shoes, who understands the challenges that they face, and who will fight for them.

Michael Pope

Now we often hear candidates talk about their hardscrabble upbringings. But I'm wondering, Quentin Kidd, does her story have even more contrast when she's standing next to Terry McAuliffe?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, I mean, look, she's got an impressive resume, an impressive background, and just an impressive person, generally. I didn't like that it, she looked a little scripted in the debate. And I think she could have looked a little less scripted, and I think it would have come across better, but her story is really compelling. And it's really compelling contrasted against Terry McAuliffe. And I just have to say, at the end of the day, if Terry McAuliffe wins this nomination, and becomes the Democratic nominee for Governor, I wished Caroll Foy had stayed in the General Assembly a little bit longer, put the time in, and had done this a year, a cycle or two down the road, because I really think that you know, the basic bread and butter material of a candidate is there with Jennifer Caroll Foy.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I also noticed at times, it seemed like Foy was just reading the words directly in front of her. And that's a criticism that's come up about her before. Foy is somebody who, in the past, has been seen as speaking in great platitudes, and on the surface, makes amazing points, but when you dig into the policy, it's just not there. You know, and my wife also noticed it last night, too, it seems like if these candidates were in a position to drill down into some of this policy, as certainly compared to Jennifer McClellan, who we'll talk about in a second, McClellan almost got into the weeds so much that it was reminiscent of Al Gore at times, but Foy spoke and 30,000 foot platitudes. And I think that is something that will come up again in this primary.

Michael Pope

Well, speaking of Jennifer McClellan, she was first elected to the House of Delegates back in 2005, to fill a seat vacated by Viola Baskerville, who joined the Kaine Administration. Then in 2017, she won a special election to fill the seat vacated by Donald McEachin, when he was elected to the Congress. Now she's raised about a million dollars and this is how she talks about herself on the campaign trail.

Jennifer McClellan

I was motivated to make government a force for progressive change, solving people's problems, and uplifting our communities. That's what's motivated me for the past 16 sessions, as I've walked past the statue of Harry Byrd every day into this state capitol, knowing I am his worst nightmare, a Black woman working to eradicate the inequity that he put in place.

Michael Pope

Quentin Kidd, can Jennifer McClellan win by running against Harry Byrd?

Quentin Kidd

Short answer, no. You know, we all know who Harry Byrd is. A lot of a lot of younger voters who might not vote in this primary at all, don't know who Harry Byrd is, but I don't think she can run against Harry Byrd and win. The reference to her being sort of Al Gore like in her policy-wonkishness is I think, a great one. You know, if Jennifer Caroll Foy is too superficial, Jennifer McClellan might be too in the weeds on policy. And it's hard for the voter to shift from Harry Byrd to deeply in the weeds on policy. And so I think it's really sort of a difficult space to navigate between those two things. And that's kind of what she was doing. You know, she's most comfortable in the weeds on policy. But she recognizes that she's got to try to get out of those weeds a bit. And so she draws these references every so often, but they, in my mind, seem to be sort of forced because she knows she needs to and I just don't know that that's an effective debating strategy.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, if Terry is almost like the greatest showman, McClellan is almost like the greatest workhorse, because she is very much running a campaign that would be great for the electorate, that was only Richmond, where it's more policy centric. And, you know, I don't know how much Northern Virginia cares about Harry Byrd, you know, or the statue on Capitol Square. And, you know, she's got to make a play down in Hampton Roads. And I don't know that the Hampton Roads is really thinking about the statue of Harry Byrd right now either.

Michael Pope

Well next up among the candidates is Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax. He's a former federal prosecutor who was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2017. Then, in 2019, as we all remember, he faced multiple allegations of sexual assault, although charges were never filed, so he's got this cloud hanging over him. This is how he talks about himself on the campaign trail.

Justin Fairfax

I believe that I'm the best candidate for Governor of the Commonwealth going forward because people are facing extraordinary challenges in their lives, challenges unlike we have ever seen. We are dealing with a pandemic, an economic crisis, and a racial injustice crisis, that is threatening the very lives and foundation that people have built over the course of many generations. And they're looking for someone to fight for them.

Michael Pope

Quentin Kidd, what do you make of this narrative here where he wants voters to vote for him, because people are facing extraordinary challenges?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, they're, all of all of the candidates essentially are, at one, one level or another, pitching their ability to respond to the extraordinary crises, or series of crises, that we're facing in the Commonwealth in the country. And you know, at the end of the day, I think Justin Fairfax has a really good balance between the sort of, you know, he's really great on the stump, he's got just enough policy chops, I think, to be sort of substantive enough when he needs to be, he's not super scripted. But he has the cloud of the sexual assault allegations hanging over him and he can't get out from under that. And so it's tough to say to voters, "Elect me, because I'll fight for you," when he's still having to fight for himself. And I think that's his primary challenge here. And he's still got a body of support out there among the electorate. I just don't know that it's enough at this point. And I don't think the debate changed that, to move him into a different position visa v. Terry McAuliffe.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, this opening statement from Justin Fairfax was probably the best moment for his night. He started off strong, and admittedly, when I saw his opening statement, I thought that we might actually see a different measure Justin Fairfax than what we ended up with at the end of the debate. And you know, to Quentin's point, Justin Fairfax is going to be too busy fighting off sexual assault allegations to fight for voters.

Michael Pope

The final candidate in this race is Delegate Lee Carter. He's the only Socialist in the race. He was first elected in that wave election back in 2017, unseating Republican incumbent Jackson Miller. He introduces himself by talking about divisions in Virginia, not divisions between Republicans and Democrats, or even urban versus rural, but this:

Lee Carter

That division in this Commonwealth is between the haves and the have nots. And for too long, we have had government that responds only to the needs of the wealthy and those with political connections. In contrast to the rest of the field, I am not a millionaire, and I am not an attorney. I'm an enlisted Marine Corps veteran and an electronics repairman. And I got involved in Virginia politics, because I got hurt at work in the summer of 2015, and no one wanted to fix the worker's comp system.

Michael Pope

This is actually not the kind of profile that we normally see among people who run for statewide office. Quentin Kidd, can a blue collar lawmaker, who moonlights as a Lyft driver, be elected to the executive mansion?

Quentin Kidd

So the odds are against him, but I have to say, of the five people on that stage, in that debate, I think Lee Carter was the only candidate who the more you listened to him, the more you liked him, because he makes sense to a lot of people. And I could see Lee Carter, if you just took off the Democratic Socialist label, I could see Lee Carter being really appealing to the sort of Trump voter out there, the Republican voter who was attracted to Trump's populist language. And so, in an in a weird sort of way, I think Lee Carter could create a cross ideological coalition, if he could make it to be a statewide candidate. I just don't know that he can get through the primary process to do that. But I but I have to say, from beginning to end, I was impressed with him, his command of policy, his ability to articulate his his views and his issues. I was impressed with him the entire debate.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I agree. And Lee Carter has been on this show before, Transition Virginia listener and guest. Lee Carter, in my opinion, had the best night of everybody during the Democratic debate, because there weren't really any expectations. He doesn't have very much statewide name recognition, among people who are watching, and because there were no expectations, he just surpassed everything that had been set. Compared in contrast with you know, Terry McAuliffe, who performed about as expected and Jennifer McClellan who struggled at times to be the showman, you know, and got stuck in the weeds, and Foy who was a showman but couldn't find the weeds, Carter had an extraordinarily strong night during the debate. Okay, let's take another break. When we come back, we're going to talk about how these candidates hope to position themselves against other candidates. We'll be right back.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia, we're talking about the Democratic Primary for Governor. We've got five candidates who are trying to position themselves as the one to take on whoever Republicans select, and their convention. Now everyone thinks McAuliffe is the front runner, and he certainly raised more money and secured more endorsements. But he's kind of already had his turn, and many people think that he represents the past, which is why his comment about getting the vaccine was striking.

Terry McAuliffe

Listen, we're not gonna be safe until everybody has a vaccine. And that's what our goal should be, public sector, private sector, reaching out to the religious leaders throughout all the communities to talk from the pulpits to say, "You need to take this vaccine." And soon we'll have doses for everybody. I still don't have it. I'm too young. I don't fit the category yet. So I'm still waiting to get my vaccine.

Michael Pope

I've already got my vaccine, so Terry McAuliffe is making me feel old here. Quentin Kidd, what do we make of Terry McAuliffe positioning himself as the spring chicken?

Quentin Kidd

I love this. This is classic Terry McAuliffe. I think he's 64, 65 years old. So he clearly fits whatever categories are he needs to fit into to get the vaccine, but he's, this is Terry McAuliffe, the showman. And this is how Terry McAuliffe is going to position himself in the final two months of the campaign. He will move as he needs to move, either in terms of issue positioning, or in terms of how he positioned himself personally, you know, suddenly the youngest guy on stage is not old enough to get the vaccine yet, or however he needs to do that, he will do it, to sort of navigate the final two months of the Democratic Primary process. I mean, I just chuckled when he said all that because I was thinking to myself, I don't know exactly how old he is, but I think he's 64, 65, something like that.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, he definitely qualifies for the vaccine, and he should absolutely get it. Because COVID is no joke, for sure. But yeah, Terry is going to try to draw contrast with everybody. He, he's painfully aware that he's running against two Black women, a Black male, and a working class Democrat, and he's got to stand out and parry criticisms that he's already had his turn. So that actually leaves very limited lines of argument for Governor McAuliffe.

Michael Pope

You know, one thing that we've seen from these candidates is two of them talking about being in kind of hard times during the pandemic, Lee Carter and also Jennifer Caroll Foy, who talked about her family having a hard times during the pandemic. This is what she said in that first debate.

Jennifer Caroll Foy

We pay a second mortgage every month called childcare, while straddled with student loan debt. So when this pandemic happened, we both had to sit at our kitchen table, pull out our checkbook, and make some tough decisions. And when my hours got rolled back, when he lost one of his jobs, times got tough, and they're tough for so many Virginia families out there. And that's why we need a governor who understands the challenges that Virginia families face. I don't have to empathize, because I understand.

Michael Pope

Now, when she said that, it felt to me like she was pointing that right at McAuliffe. "I don't need to empathize, Terry McAuliffe, because I understand." Quentin Kidd, is that a message that's going to resonate with Democratic Primary voters?

Quentin Kidd

So I think it could. I think this was one of her strongest moments of the night, because she personalized herself in a way that even if the presentation made it sound like she had practiced that line over and over and over again, it was a very personal line. And I think the reason it was a powerful line is because there are hundreds and thousands of people around the Commonwealth, right now, can relate to that position. I mean, she was essentially scripting, a campaign ad right there, a couple sitting around a table trying to figure out what bills to pay. I think it was a strong line. I think this is the kind of thing that could help her going forward in the campaign, making this kind of argument, personalizing it in this way, because it does draw contrast with Terry McAuliffe, and I think any contrasts are going to be good going forward.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I don't know that anybody who isn't Terry has a path to victory the way Virginia runs elections right now, but certainly one path to victory that could work for Foy, is to turn this into more of a class war against Terry who is very much the Virginia Gentry. So, it's something she's got to do. I agree, she executed.

Michael Pope

Now families across Virginia are of course struggling in the pandemic and this is how Senator Jennifer McClellan is positioning herself to help out those families.

Jennifer McClellan

Unlike past recessions, we cannot simply focus on luring other companies here to Virginia, we have got to stabilize and grow the small businesses, particularly our women and minority owned businesses, who are struggling, and who wants to provide the leave to their employees, sick leave, paid family medical leave, and they need our help to do it.

Michael Pope

Now when she's talking about luring companies here to Virginia, I'm hearing a criticism of McAuliffe here. Quentin Kidd, is this a positioning that's going to work with primary voters?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, I don't think so. And I, the reason I say that is because this is classic McClellan. by the way, focus on policy, get into the weeds a little bit on policy, not anything about herself, not personalizing in any way. And if it was a criticism of McAuliffe and the Amazon deal, it was so vague, and so minimally directed at McAuliffe, that I don't think it really landed for many voters. And so I think that's the problem. Contrast McClellan with Caroll Foy, and you get two very different kind of candidates. And I just don't think McClellan, in that context, really connects with voters like a Caroll Foy connected with voters with her story, positioning story.

Michael Pope

There was also an interesting moment in the debate, when Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, was calling attention to how the debate was working and whether or not Governor McAuliffe was speaking too much. And he sort of used it as a contrast, and this is the moment.

Justin Fairfax

I do just want to point out, there appears to be two set of rules up here, one where the Governor can talk as long as he wants to, and do whatever he wants, and one for everybody else. And I think-

Moderator

Make sure we stick to the one minute time frame, please one minute and watch the time code, and when you're rounded up, please do so.

Justin Fairfax

And I think that's, you know, part of the issue is that we do have so many disparities in our society.

Michael Pope

Quentin Kidd, is McAuliffe, himself, an example of disparities in our society?

Quentin Kidd

I have so many things to say about this statement. And it is a part of what was a pattern for Fairfax all night, it...as Fairfax is the victim. And I don't think that did him any good, by the way. It is the case that McAuliffe, of all the people on that stage, have probably benefited from the rules, formal and informal of society, more than anybody else. But I don't know that Fairfax lands the critique as as well as it could be landed, because again, he is under accusations that he's not been able to get out from under yet, that fit into a larger clash in society. And so he can't at the same time, then claim to be a victim, and then try to land a punch on McAuliffe for being you know, the white guy who's benefited from all of the benefits of society. And so I just don't know that it landed, and I walked away from the debate thinking, Justin Fairfax can't win this race by being the victim. And that's what he essentially did in the debate.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, and you know, Fairfax, taking time, the one minute that he has to respond, to just whine for 30 seconds, you know, didn't do him any services. If any politician has been paying attention, at least since 2016, the response is not to whine about the front runner taking advantage of the moderators, if that's what they're doing, it's to do it yourself. Right? So if you're complaining that somebody is going over 60 seconds, you should also go over 60 seconds, and make the moderator stop you.

Michael Pope

Well now, as someone who sometimes moderates these things, I'm gonna disagree with you, Thomas, candidates who are listening, please do not do that. Do not take that advice. So now we heard Caroll Foy talk about how difficult it was to sit around the kitchen table, and her hours were cut, and her husband lost one of his jobs. And so she's struggling during the pandemic. We also heard Delegate Lee Carter talk about collecting unemployment insurance. This is what he said.

Lee Carter

I'm one of those Virginians that's still waiting for an answer from the employment commission. You know, my second job is as a Lyft driver, because the General Assembly doesn't pay enough to make ends meet. And so obviously, gig workers were eligible for PUA from the start of this pandemic. And they told me I was eligible and then they gave me a single check for $158. No more answer, no more reason for why that stopped. So I am right there with the hundreds of 1000s of Virginians who are waiting for an answer for the Virginia employment commission. I think that their performance, it's understandable that they've been overwhelmed, but it is unacceptable that here we are a year later, and people still don't have a reason why they're not being paid.

Michael Pope

This kind of a personal story is so rare in politics, to hear a statewide candidate talk about collecting unemployment insurance, and having a hard time with the employment commission. Quentin Kidd, what do we make of this story and is this going to work with voters?

Quentin Kidd

Well, again, I think this is why Lee Carter, I think he's of all the people on that stage during the debate, he's the one who can relate to voters where they are, where many voters, many voters where many voters are, because many voters are in the same situation. And you know, when he said that, there was a name that popped into my head that anyone who follows Virginia politics may remember, Melanie Rapp. When she was in the House of Delegates, she was a substitute teacher. And so she relied on her House Delegates income, much more than most any other delegate did. And Lee Carter is essentially in that same position. And so, again, I don't know that Lee Carter can overcome, you know, his lack of resources, his lack of name recognition around the state, but I think the more people hear Lee Carter, the better position Lee Carter is in.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I'd agree with that. Lee Carter has an extraordinarily powerful story. And he brings up issues that nobody else is talking about, that are extremely important. And regarding unemployment, there's not a single Democrat who went to the mat for strengthening unemployment benefits, in any budget session, prior to COVID. And the fact that nobody in the Virginia Legislature is even thinking about strengthening our social safety nets, tells us, tells voters, that we don't have good representation among working class Virginians in the Legislature. So the more he talks about this stuff, the more the average Virginian will identify with him. And I realize he is a fun punching bag for a lot of the Democratic establishment, but the reality is, is if Terry McAuliffe is going to be the Governor again, he absolutely needs to listen to every word Lee Carter says, and implement everything he can.

Michael Pope

Well, Quentin Kidd, thank you so much for joining us. Any other thoughts you have about the state of the Primary, or what we learned in this first televised debate?

Quentin Kidd

Yeah, I would just say, at the end of the day, you know, I think the candidates came in positioned, left the debate in the same order of positioning as they came into the debate. You know, I don't think Terry McAuliffe, if he's the leader right now, which everything seems to point in that direction, I don't think anything happened to make him not the leader going out. You know, but to Thomas's point there just a minute ago, I do think Terry McAuliffe, and probably the other candidates on that stage, are going to be moving toward Lee Carter's positions on some issues as we go forward. And that's what makes him a real valuable voice in this field. But I think at the end of the day, this is the first debate. There are several others to come. I think Terry McAuliffe came out of the debate in the same position he came into the debate. Let's see if that position changes as we have the next several debates.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, that's a nice place to leave it. If you have comments, questions, disagreements, serious objections to what you just heard, or maybe you only want to tell us what you think about the show, write an email, send it to us at TransitionVApodcast@gmail.com so we can read it on the air. Subscribe to Transition Virginia anywhere podcast, follow the Transition Team on Twitter @TransitionVA and find us on the web at transitionvirginia.com. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you can enjoy our next episode of Transition Virginia.