Michael Pope

Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in Virginia. I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman. Today on the podcast, Democrats have primaries and about 20 house seats, and some of them are competitive, others are not. We've got an excellent guest to help us walk through the list of primaries and get a sense of what we can expect on June 8th. We're joined by the Director of CNalysis, who just launched his own podcast on Virginia politics. Chaz Nuttcombe, thanks for joining us.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Thank you all so much for having me on.

Michael Pope

Okay, Chaz. I know you probably get this question all the time, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Chaz Nuttycombe, is that your real name?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yes, it is. I'm Charles the Third. My dad is Chuck. My grandfather was Charles. So they they went and called me Chaz.

Michael Pope

Charles the Third. I see. Okay. Well, your podcast is excellent. Tell us about your new podcast and what kind of episodes we can expect in the future.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so you can listen to it on CNalysis.com. That's C, N, a, l, y, s,i s, .com. We have interviewed statewide candidates for Lieutenant Governor so far. We have got Ben Trivet and Matt Colt Hall on talking about the contest for both the statewide in House of Delegates for the Republicans and Democrats between May and June. Yeah, so you can listen to it on Spotify, Apple podcast, Google podcast. You can either just search us on those apps, CNalysis podcast, or you can go to CNalysis.com and click on podcast and click on the icon for the streaming service of your choice.

Michael Pope

Well, great, let's get into these House primaries. Democrats across Virginia have primaries, and some of the most interesting ones are also some of the most bizarre. We've got a handful of House Democrats who are defending their own seats at home, while also simultaneously running for statewide office. This actually never happens in Virginia politics, that somebody's name would literally be on the ballot twice, once near the top of the ticket for the Lieutenant Governor primary, and then once again, lower down on the ballot for defending their House seat. There were four of these people and one of them recently dropped out of her statewide race to focus on her House seat. I'm of course talking about Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, who has three primary challengers, one of them is very heavily funded. Chaz, what do we make of this primary in Virginia House District 31, the Elizabeth Guzman race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think it was smart for her to drop down to this House Delegates race because she was in a lot of trouble of losing it. Rod Hall has got a lot of money. He's also got the endorsement of Delegate Bagby recently, who's the top dog at the Black Caucus. And now that Guzman is back at her home turf, I think she's favored, it's just a argument of how heavily she's favored. I think, you know, Hall can still pull off an upset here. But Guzman has an incumbency advantage. She's got three other people running against her. So I think that definitely helps her out. And you know, she's going to be transferring money over to her delegate account here soon. And yeah, I think Guzman will win this primary. But you know, I wouldn't count out Rod Hall, but I would count out the other two candidates and that's Idris O'Connor and Kara Pitek. I don't think they really have much of a shot here, given the split field and the lack of resources.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, it was a good move for Delegate Guzman to drop out. She is not a viable statewide candidate, unfortunately, at this point in time. And because she had no path to victory, all she could do was lose her ability to champion her favorite causes and her district and the General Assembly. The Caucus had recruited Rod Hall to run for Delegate to replace Guzman. However now that Guzman's back, I've checked in with some of the people at the Caucus and they do not know what's going to happen next on that front. Rod Hall had gotten the endorsement of also Luke Torian, and Senator Scott Surovell. It seems like Prince William County was starting to rally around Hall. We'll see what happens now that Guzman is back in the race. Guzman is a favorite champion of labor. And with labor being so loyal, I would imagine that they will back her for her Delegate run, reelect, but their endorsements at the statewide level, for Lieutenant Governor, are up for grabs. We've got some locals with IBEW and the carpenters and AFSMI who endorsed her. And potentially one of the other candidates still in the race could qualify for those endorsements instead.

Michael Pope

So Guzman is no longer in the Lieutenant Governor's race. But one candidate who is his Delegate Mark Levine. This is House District 45. So Delegate Levine is trying to defend his House district and win that race, while also trying to win the race for Lieutenant Governor. He has a challenge in that House race from the Vice Mayor of Alexandria, Elizabeth Bennett Parker. Now I actually live in the 45th, and I've interviewed Bennett Parker and Levine, and I can tell you that she is just as liberal as he is. So there's no daylight between them in terms of she's not running to his left or his right, in terms of the issues, they're right sort of aligned with each other. But she does get to knock Levine for trying to run twice. And in fact, I recently quoted her as saying, "This district deserves someone who is fully focused on them," which is a something that any of these challengers can make against the double filers. Chaz, what do we make of House District 45? The Mark Levine race.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I think Levine's in some trouble. Like you said Bennett Parker is the Vice Mayor. She's raised over 100 grand for her bid thus far. And Levine's trying to go for this statewide nomination. And I don't think he has a shot at this. I'll be frank with you. I don't think there's really any scenario where Levine is the nominee for the Democrats for Lieutenant Governor. I think there could be an argument made that Bennett Parker, I don't know whether she wants to or is running to her left, but I think there are definitely some issues to where she could kind of create that narrative if she so chooses. Levine has taken cop money. I know he endorsed Biden in the primary. I don't know that, you know, obviously in the state legislature primaries that he endorsed for president year ago as much of an issue. But you know, I think if Bennett Parker wants to create the narrative, at least, that she is running to his left, she can.

Michael Pope

I'm not sure that would be possible, because Mark Levine is really on the liberal leftist side of the Democratic Caucus. And he's for things like the assault weapons ban. In fact, when I interviewed him, he said he was even for registration of firearms, which would be like, way farther than most Democrats would be willing to go. And then when I asked Elizabeth Bennett Parker about that, she said, "Oh, yeah, I'd be for that, too." So, I mean, I really don't think there is a way to get to the left of Mark Levine.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I'm not saying Levine is anything to the center. But it's again, that's why I said in narrative or in rhetoric. I think she can. And again, I don't know why he's going for the statewide bid, because I don't think he's going to win this at all.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, well, I mean, the reason he's probably going for the statewide bid is because one, he has the capacity to self fund and raise a lot of money. And regardless of how much money you have, it's all green, and it all spends, or rather the source of your money, it all spends, but Levine also won his initial race back in 2015 in a five way primary by being everybody's second choice. So the fact is, Mark Levine has always been particularly vulnerable to a one on one challenge here. Now, Bennett Parker is somebody who just got elected to Alexandria City Council, but she got elected with so much of the vote, that she ended up being the top vote getter overall, and beating out people like John Taylor Chapman, for Vice Mayor. So she is somebody that nobody can take for granted, because she clearly has a good base of support in the City of Alexandria.

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right.

Michael Pope

Another candidate who's on the ballot twice is Delegate Lee Carter. He's, of course, running for Governor, trying to push the field of gubernatorial candidates to the left. He's got two primary challengers in his seat there at Virginia House District 50. Chaz, what do we make of the Lee Carter race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so I think where Carter stands to benefit in his House race is that he's got split opposition. Helen Zurita does not have a campaign. So it's really between him and Michelle Maldonado. And I think he could be in some trouble. If you look at his primary from 2019, it wasn't the nail biter, but you know, his primary challenger still got a good chunk of the vote, I want to say something like 40%, if I recall correctly, and so I don't think Carter's gonna win on the statewide level. You know, I think any of the other candidates likely McAuliffe will carry it, but I think Carter will win, currently, just because the field is split. You know, again, Zurita does not really have much of a campaign. And when you have split field, you have an incumbent running, and Lee still has more money in his Delegate race than both Michelle and Helen, you know, I think he'll win but you know, I would say do not rule this one out for an upset on the Delegate race here for the Democratic primary. I will say that Carter is an underperformer in general elections. In 2019 compared to Biden's 2020 margin district, I think he was 14 points behind what Biden won it by. So we'll see what kind of campaign Michelle Maldonado builds. But, you know, this race will be competitive in the general election. I think it's more competitive, actually, if Carter's nominee though, in a rare circumstance where a race is more competitive, the incumbent wins the primary.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, what's interesting about Carter is he's going to have to contend with people in his district deliberately not voting for him at the top of the ballot, right, and then coming down to see his name again, at the bottom of the ballot. Once again, incumbency has an outstanding advantage. It definitely helps Carter that there are two candidates running against him. But as you said, Chaz, one of them isn't mounting a real campaign. So the question is, how much time and attention does Delegate Carter want to spend on being reelected as Delegate, and if he wants to be a statewide elected, frankly, he needs to focus all of his time and attention on becoming a statewide elected, so Lee's it a bit of a catch 22, frankly.

Michael Pope

And moving over to the Hampton Roads area, we've got Delegate Jay Jones, who is running for Attorney General, trying to unseat incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring, while also defending his House seat. Chaz, what do we make of Virginia House District 89, the Jay Jones race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think Jay Jones, currently, I think he's going to win his Delegate primary. Given that I think he is going to curious how see bare minimum on the statewide level, and it's been against Herring. He's very popular. He also has a lot more money than his primary challenger, Hannah Kinder, or Kinder, however you pronounce it. I think, you know, Jay is just really strong incumbent and I don't think there's really any wedge issue that can be drawn here. I think Jay can also, by the way, really, I think he can beat Herring, but I would still say Herring is a favorite right now. But you know, I think Jay will be fine. I don't think he's really in much trouble on his Delegate race.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I agree 100%. Jay Jones could certainly beat Mark Herring. Here's the question that every primary challenger needs to ask themselves when running against an incumbent at any level of politics. Why are we firing the incumbent? And if there's no reason to fire the incumbent, then the primary challenger is probably not going to succeed. But aside from that, Jay should be able to come back easily and win for Delegate if he's not the Attorney General nominee.

Michael Pope

Okay, one last question here on these four that we've talked about so far. Guzman Levine, Carter, Jones. Open question to the panel here. Are we expecting any of these four to lose their House seats or are we going to get through this primary season, and even the election cycle, with Guzman, Levine, Carter, and Jones keeping their House seats if they don't get promoted to a statewide race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think all of them are at least slight favorites in each of their contests or moderate favorites, I would say at the bare minimum. I would not rule out Levine losing, I wouldn't rule out Carter losing, I wouldn't rule out Guzman losing, but I would probably rule out Jay Jones losing his House seat.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, you know, Carter is always an interesting case study for sure. Generally speaking, though, I think Guzman could absolutely go down. And I think Mark Levine is quite poised to go down. His support in that district is a mile wide and an inch deep. There's a lot of Democrats all bottled up there. And the more frequently they get new blood in that seat, the more likely they are to be the Delegate one day. So we're gonna take a quick break. When we come back, we're gonna talk about some of the most competitive House primaries this year. We'll be right back.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about some of the most competitive Democratic primaries on the ballot this year. And we're going to start in Northern Virginia with House District 86, where we've got incumbent Delegate Ibraheem Samirah, who has a challenge from Irene Shin. Chaz, what do we make of this race, it's receiving a lot of buzz. A lot of people are talking about this race in the 86th District with Samirah, what do you make of that race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think this one is really interesting. You know, Ben Tribbett, when he came on my podcast, kind of talked about, you know, the point that while Samirah is an incumbent, he doesn't have that much of an incumbency advantage. He was uncontested in 2019, in the general election. He did not have a primary. It was a special election. So they didn't have a, you know, a normal primary in that seat. But, you know, I would still say I think he's gonna win, he has more money. And I think that while he doesn't have a big incumbency advantage, I think it's still there. This is kind of one where Shin, while not, I would say, and I'm sure Thomas agrees with me that, you know, there's not much ideological difference between them. It's more so in rhetoric, Samirah is one to stir the pot and buck his party, sometimes from the left, when it comes to votes. And Shin would be more of a loyalist of the Caucus, and would not stir up the pot. So I think that's the main thing here. It's, you know, it's more in rhetoric, style, and what you want in the 86 in representative. You know, if you want someone who's not going to make headlines, I know the biggest headlines that Samirah made was when Trump came to Williamsburg and he protested, as member of the General Assembly you're allowed to be there. And he brought a sign with him, and interrupted, interrupted Trump mid speech. But yeah, so I don't think there's much ideological difference here. But at the end of the day, I think Samirah is a favorite, it's just a matter of how much.

Thomas Bowman

Well the Caucus is certainly lining up behind Ibraheem Samirah. And the reason for that, according to one of the Caucus members, who I asked, who will not be named, is because they do not want any one of their members successfully primaried. Even though Samirah is not necessarily the most popular member of their Caucus, they think that if one goes down, they all get primaried the next cycle. And, you know, I actually am okay with primaries, I would have no problem with that, personally. But if you're the Caucus trying to run a multi year, multi cycle plan, then yeah, you don't want to have it all wiped away with a couple of primary challenges in strategic districts. So Irene Shin, by the way, full disclosure, served on the PAC board with me of the Competitive Commonwealth Fund. She is an excellent candidate, Ibraheem Samirah has The Adam Center helping him out in that district, the largest mosque in Northern Virginia, that's 2000 to 3000 votes for Samirah right there, off the bat. So any challenger, no matter who it is, has to find more votes than that on election day.

Michael Pope

That's a really good point, Thomas. You know, the influence of The Adam Center cannot be underestimated. They bring a lot of votes and a lot of prominence in Northern Virginia. Moving on to House District 68, Delegate Don Adams is facing a primary challenge, Kyle Elliot. Chaz, what do we make of that race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Well, look, Dawn Adams is one of the few members of the General Assembly that endorsed Jennifer Carroll Foy for the gubernatorial race, so in every, almost every other member of the General Assembly, who has endorsed candidates, Doris McCall, for the most part, some of them endorse McClellan, but you know, Carroll Foy's definitely, you know, at least the second most progressive candidate in the race, Carter is probably the most progressive. But I think Dawn has a sizable incumbency advantage. She hasn't had a primary here since she won the primary in 2017. And, you know, I don't think there's really a wedge issue that Kyle Elliot can really draw on here. But that's not to say that he doesn't have a strong campaign. I think he's got a pretty good one so far, but I would definitely bet on Dawn. I know she's not gonna let up on her race. She's gonna always run like she's 10 points behind just like she did in 2017, Against Luke Fossey, when she wasn't really at the top of the list for targeting, yet she beat Luke Fossey by, you know, around 300 votes. She's not safe. I wouldn't say she's safe. I think Kyle can win, but I would definitely bet on Dawn here.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I don't know too much about this race. But I know a couple things I know about the incumbent and I know about the challenger. The incumbent is the only hard no, when it comes to labor union issues in the Democratic House Caucus right now. She was the only one who was at least vocally anti union, though they're not all friendly. It takes a lot of guts for somebody that represents Richmond City to be anti union. Kyle Elliot has some really interesting contributions. Eva Teague Hardy, Board of Dominion Energy, Levar Stoney, the mayor, One Richmond, his PAC, Kevin's Zeithammel, his PAC manager. I don't know that it's necessarily right to say the establishment prefers one candidate or another. But some very influential people in Virginia politics are lining up behind Kyle Elliot.

Michael Pope

Moving on to our next race, House District 66. This is the Kirk Cox seat and so Delegate Cox is not running for reelection. That's an open seat in House District 66. You got two Democrats there, Linnard Harris and Katie Sponsler. Chaz, what do we make of that race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so Sheila Bynum Coleman was also in this race, but she did not turn in her petitions and she endorsed Sponsler. I think now that Bynum Coleman is not in the race, we moved this race from lean Republican and tilt Republican recently, as a result of that. Bynum Coleman would have been a pretty weak candidate. She was caught up in a revenge porn scandal in December 2019. Shortly after she lost her House bid against Cox. I think Sponsler is going to win this primary. Linnard Harris was running as independent in 2019, while Bynum Coleman and Cox were duking it out. But that's not to say that I think Sponsler is a strong candidate. I don't I don't think she's she's a strong candidate. And I especially don't think Linnard Harris is a strong candidate because he only decided to become a Democrat recently. So, at the end of the day, I think currently Republicans are going to hold this seat because the Democrats don't have good recruitment here. They have some good recruitment other, everywhere else, for the most part, but they just fumbled the football on this. And this is a blue seat that voted for Biden by double digits. It's open. And it's it's kind of astonishing how hard they flopped in recruitment here. I think they can build a campaign for Sponsler. I don't think that it's a safe race for the Republicans. But they've got a pretty good nominee there. Mike Cherry, he's a local elected in Colonial Heights, aka Colonial whites. And, you know, you need someone from there who can really just blow it out in the margins in Colonial whites.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I mean, Katie's advantage here is that she's been a candidate before. So it's always useful, when you're trying to flip a seat, to have a veteran candidate. She is progressive. I don't know that I would characterize her as strong or weak. You know, in my opinion, winning candidates are stronger than losing candidates. However, she's never really had the advantage of running in a favorable district where she would even be able to win in the first place. So as far as a veteran candidate who's run before goes, this is probably the best they could get since Sheila Bynum Coleman wasn't available.

Michael Pope

And moving on now to House District 82. This is the seat currently held by Delegate Jason Mijares, who is likely to be the candidate for Attorney General. When we get into November, there are two democrats running in the primary for House District 82. Chaz, what do we make of that race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

So I would say that Miyares is more than likely, I think he's a shoo in for the AG nomination and whether you know he can double file In the general, that's that's up to him for both his House seat and Attorney General. I can't really say much on the Democratic primary here. I mean, both of the candidates haven't really raised much money. We technically have it as a competitive seat, it's in the very likely column. So the, you know, the Democrats have like something like a 10% chance here. And that's honestly really assuming that Miyares is not going to be the Republican nominee for this district, once he becomes the AG nominee. But you know, again, he technically can still be the nominee in that district if he wants to keep running in the general election. But yeah, I can't really say much to the candidates here. But I think the Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to hold this seat, because I don't think they you know, either of the candidates are really having that strong of a campaign.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, both Democrats, they're raised less than $500. So it's very nice that the House Caucus was able to find not one but two Democrats to run in that district. And we'll see how they do on election day, once one of them's the nominee, and there's a Republican on the ballot. But yeah, good job for the Caucus.

Michael Pope

I'm sensing some sarcasm there, Thomas.

Thomas Bowman

No, I mean, I do believe that Democrats should be running everywhere. You're gonna have to raise more than $500 in Q1 to be considered a viable candidate by anybody.

Michael Pope

Well, moving on to House District 84. This is the seat currently held by Delegate Glen Davis. There are two Democrats running in that primary. Chaz, what do we make of the Democratic primary there for House District 84?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so 84, Davis is running for Lieutenant Governor as well. He will be competing on the May 8th convention. I think he's probably a slight front runner in his race. I wouldn't say he's a shoo in. He's a very thin, paper thin, front runner. I think that if he forgoes a House bid in his district, that seat would become a little bit more competitive. We have it as, I believe likely Republican or lean Republican, one of the two in our ratings. This was a district that voted for Joe Biden last year. The Democratic primary is kind of interesting. The House Democratic Caucus recruited Kim Melnyk, who is honestly kind of a Republican lite. That's what the Caucus wanted. She's donated to Republicans before, she's endorsed Republican candidates previously in the area. And so as a result, we got Tracie Liguid, and I hope I'm pronouncing that right. And so she's definitely running to Melnyk's left, referring to Melnyk as a dino. I think that, it's I can't really say who's a favorite here and who isn't because, you know, I think there's a lot of ammo for Tracie Liguid to attack Melnyk on, but at the end of the day, I think Melnyk is going to get more money. So it'll be interesting to see what happens here. And it'll be interesting to see what happens with Davis here, and especially with Davis's LG bid, on May 8th.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, Davis' path to victory on May 8th requires him basically being everybody's second choice, since they're doing a ranked ballot for that vote, which is good for somebody like Glenn Davis. Ultimately, though, I think most observers believe Hugo's got it locked up, in which case, Glenn Davis will be back on the Delegate ballot later in November. And, you know, I think that it says a lot that the House Democrats decided they needed a dino, or allegedly a dino to run for that seat in order to potentially flip it. This, one, Virginia Beach politics is like, it's very silly, just generally speaking, but two, the Democrats will have a much better shot of flipping this district, once it's been redistricted. And they are not running in the new lines this year.

Michael Pope

Well, Thomas, you say most observers think that Hugo's got that nomination for Lieutenant Governor, and certainly, when we had David Ramadan on our show, that's what he said on Transition Virginia, but you know, who does not share that opinion, Matt Colt Hall who appeared on Chaz's podcast, and I think he is not as strong on a potential Hugo victory as everybody else seems to be.

Thomas Bowman

Good.

Michael Pope

So it's interested to see what happens to that May 8th convention.

Thomas Bowman

Good. Yeah. Well be watching it and I would almost call the Republican race there more interesting, but not on this podcast. All right. So when we come back, we'll go through all the incumbent Democrats who are facing primary challengers and some Democrats who are in primaries in solid red districts.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about all of the many Democratic primaries for House seats across Virginia. And a lot of these incumbent Democrats, in the House Democratic Caucus, they've got challengers. I want to start in Arlington with House District 49, Delegate Alfonso Lopez has a primary challenger. Chaz, what do you make of that race?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so if anybody is going to lose from a challenger from their left, I definitely think it's going to be Lopez. I think Karishma Mehta has built a really strong campaign for herself. She had a pretty good Q1, she's got the backing of the DSA folk. And you know, the DSA folk were there for Lee Carter, when most people from you know, the big boys in the House Democratic Caucus, we're not. They really are a force to be reckoned with up in that region in the Beltway, and in Fairfax. Lopez, the wedge issue here here is Lopez profiteering off of ICE detention centers. But it's kind of an old issue. And it's been litigated before, although Lopez did get a primary challenger in 2019, that J.S. Spain, the primary challenger, barely had a campaign at all. But this time around, I think, Mehta has really built a strong campaign. So I think Lopez is in some trouble, although I would still bet on him for who I think is going to win. I think it's usually a safe bet to bet on incumbents, and in most cases, so you know, guilty as charged there. But I think Mehta could really have a shot at this. I think even though the ICE detention center thing is a an old issue, it's an issue, like I said, that hasn't been litigated well, and got a lot of attention. So if she really can build a strong grassroots campaign and keep hauling in a good amount of dough, I think Lopez may be at risk here.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, and it's important to point out that Lopez raised over double what Karishma raised, $163,000 to Karishma's $78,000. Good showing for a primary challenger in Arlington. I will point out though, that most of the DSA's strength in Arlington comes from Washington DC, at least judging by the Amazon hearings. Almost every single DSA-er who came up opposing Amazon, was from the District of Columbia. So how much of that is local and organic opposition to Alfonso Lopez? I'm not convinced it's nearly enough to make Karishma competitive, but she's going to have enough money to get her message out there, to get her signs in a few yards, and there is some local Arlington opposition, at least judging by her campaign finance filings. I would say as far as the main issue on whether or not Alfonzo was profiteering off ICE, Alfonzo would tell you that he had ICE as a client under the Obama years, and his mission was to make it as merciful a policy as they possibly could have under the law. And he no longer had them as a client after Trump took over. So I don't know that there's really all that much there to grind an ax on against Delegate Lopez, frankly.

Michael Pope

Moving on to House District 34, Delegate Kathleen Murphy also has a primary challenger, Jennifer Adeli. Chaz, what do we make of this primary in House District 34?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Murphy flipped the seat in 2015 and I think that you know, it's not really a competitive seat any more, let me say that. This is a seat that has trended far away from the Republicans. And you know, the Democrats will hold it no matter who they nominate here. I think Murphy is definitely a favorite. Jennifer Adeli definitely is trying to run from her left, especially on the issue of criminal justice reform. I believe that's a wedge issue that she's kind of citing here. But I don't think Adeli has really built as strong of a campaign to put Murphy in much danger. I wouldn't count Adeli out. But I will say that this is kind of an, this is kind of old money district up in Fairfax, and it's really wealthy and Joe Biden did very well there compared to in, you know, like the 49th where there were some Bernie Sanders precincts, and when you combine Warren and Bernie's precincts, 49 that's a little past it's district, you combined Bernie and Warren's numbers, you know, you got a lot of progressive voters there. Biden did really well in this seat, if I recall correctly. So I don't think there's really much appetite here for a progressive challenger. And I think Murphy is probably a stronger incumbent than Lopez. I would say, I think she's a good fit for her district, given just how standardly liberal it is. That's not to say that, you know, Murphy is anywhere near the center. She's definitely a classical liberal, and I think she's gonna win her race. I wouldn't say there's no shot for Adeli at all, but I think it's very unlikely that she can unseat Murphy.

Thomas Bowman

You know, Jennifer Adeli is Ibraheem Samirah's, his former campaign manager. So, I mean, just to give you an idea of where Adeli's politics are, that is certainly not a bad thing for Northern Virginia. But I don't know that it does her any favors in Great Falls and McLean where a lot of the intelligence community lives and resides. Kathleen Murphy, she would tell you, is one of the former Charlie's Angels. So Kathleen, when she won that race away from the Republicans after Barbara Comstock left, she was the only person who could win because she was the only person who could pull the defense industry and voters in that district with her. I think that the makeup of the district has certainly changed somewhat, but not really the spirit of that district. And so honestly, Murphy's gonna be fine. Also, I'd point out, Adeli's got $11,000 cash on hand as of March 31st. That is not enough to win a race going two months out from a primary.

Michael Pope

Moving on the House District 79, Delegate Steve Heretick has two primary challengers, Nadarius Clark and Dante Walston. Chaz, what do we make of this Democratic primary here in House District 79?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I think if it was just Nadrius Clark versus Steve Heretick, I think this would be one to watch. But given that he's got split opposition, although I don't think you know, Dante Walston really has much of the campaign going on. You know, at the end of the day, you still got someone else on the ballot. This was a seat that has been restricted. So there's not a, you know, it's kind of a new seat in terms of new territory for someone that could run to Heretick's left, and Clark is definitely running to Heretick's left. Heretick has taken some votes to the right of his Caucus. But I would still bet on him, given that he's got split opposition and he's an incumbent and he's been an incumbent in the area for quite some time. But he does have some new territory that he hasn't represented before. So it'll be interesting, but I think Heretick's still a favorite.

Thomas Bowman

Heretick replaced the last Southern Democrat, Johnny Joanneau. And so I don't know that Portsmouth is known for being a bastion of progressivism. I think Heretick's gonna be fine. It is an important fact that there are two challengers on that race.

Michael Pope

One thing to watch in that race is that Clark received some money from Sonia Smith, who is the wife of Michael Bills. So I think as this race moves forward, closer to the June primary, it's possible we could see a lot of money thrown into this primary. So something to watch as we move forward. Moving on to House District 36. Delegate Ken Plum, the Dean of the House, and certainly the longest serving member of the Democratic Caucus, has a primary challenger. Chaz, what do we make of this Democratic primary here in 36, where we've got the longest serving Democrat facing a primary challenger?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, Plum has been in there since the 80s. So he's got a massive incumbency advantage. Barthelson doesn't really, I mean, she only raised so far five grand or five and a half grand. I think if there's a wedge issue that can be drawn here, it's it would be Dominion and I don't think that's enough of a wedge issue for Democratic primary voters in a seat like this out in Fairfax for her to really unseat Plum. It, to say would have been upset for her to win, is an understatement. It would be a Christmas miracle. Plum has, again, just has this massive incumbency advantage and while you can say, "Well, you know who else has massive incumbency advantage, Dick Saslaw?" And also that, you know, the main issue was Dominion there. But you know, this is a district that's further out West in Fairfax. Where's that one that Saslaw represents is closer to the Beltway. So it's not really as, there's not really much appetite for progressivism there, and this type of progressivism, compared to closer to the Beltway. So I think Plum is going to be fine. I don't think he's going to lose. It would be, again, a Christmas miracle for Barthelson to win that primary.

Michael Pope

Christmas in June.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah. Ken Plum, when he was Caucus Chair, raised a lot of money and I'm sure he could do it again if he needs to turn it on. I'd point out, too, just, you know, the internal politics of the local district. When you've got an incumbent who's been there since the 80s, you've got a long line of potential successors behind them. And the reality is that the local Democratic committee will never get behind Mary, because every single one of them want to be the next elected official to represent that district with Ken Plum's endorsement, hopefully. So I don't see the local party getting behind Mary. Her message is interesting. She's and her background is interesting, she's an engineer. She's clearly brilliant at science. But the reality is, when it comes to convincing 100 people in one room, can Plum is going to have a much easier time.

Michael Pope

Historical note, Ken Plum was first elected in 1977. So he's actually been in the House since the late 70s. Okay, so moving on to Virginia House District 38, Delegate Kaye Kory has a, not just a primary challenger, but one of the two Holly Hazards in Virginia who are running for office this year. Chaz, what do you make of this Democratic primary here for House District 38?

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, Hazard is trying to run to Kory's left, allegedly, but unlike the other races I've mentioned so far, I can't really find a wedge issue here. Hazard is the former Legislative Director to Kory and you know, she has raised some money, 30 grand, Kory's raised 55 grand so far, but I don't think Kory's in much trouble here. Because there's not, and even if there were a wedge issue, this is another one of those seats out in Fairfax, that I don't think there's much appetite for a progressive challenger to unseat an incumbent for. So I think Kory is likely to be fine. I don't think she's safe. Just to err on the side of caution. So, Hazard has, if she wants to really make this a race, has to raise a little bit more money, and has to find a wedge issue that she can compete with Kory on.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, this this race is interesting, because one, it indicates that there's drama in Lake Barcroft, which is the precinct that determines who that Delegates going to be. Kaye Kory is a PTA mom, former school board member. Holly Hazard is, got former credentials with the Humane Society. And it's one of her big issues. She was also one of Kaye Kory's regular donors, which makes me wonder if there's any drama there between the two of them, or if Holly thought that Kaye might be retiring and wanted to run for the seat instead. And there are multiple donors who have given to both Kaye and Holly. So I don't know what that says, if anything, but Holly is going to need her own base of support in order to knock off Kaye Kory.

Michael Pope

Now, we also have three more delegates who have primary challengers in what are probably uncompetitive seat, Chaz is ranking them as uncompetitive. Candi King, Jeff Bourne, and Lamont Bagby, all three of whom have primary challengers. Chaz, what do you make of those three races?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, I don't think any of these candidates are really in much trouble. Maybe since Candi King has not really won a primary. She won the little nomination contest back in December of last year. There can maybe, again, Christmas miracle for Pamela Montgomery, who placed second place in here to win here, but I don't think she really has much of the campaign to unseat Candi King, but especially with 71 and 74, that's Jeff Bourne and Bagby, I do not see either of them losing. They are strong incumbents and they're going to be fine.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, Candi King and Jeff Bourne are specifically top targets for Clean Virginia, and more specifically, Michael Bills and Sonia Smith. And they're spitting into the wind here, Candi King, they're going after because she refused to sign the No Dominion pledge. I, as a Democrat, don't believe any elected officials should be tying their hands with pledges period. I used to make fun of the Republicans for signing no tax pledges. Candi King's husband is Josh King, the former sheriff of Prince William County. I don't really think that that is an organization you want to get on the business end of, frankly, if you're a rich donor trying to influence politics.

Michael Pope

Two more seats I want to talk about before we end this podcast, the Nick Rush seat and the Margaret Ransone seat. So Nick Rush is not running for re election. It's an open seat. You got two Democrats running there. And then Margaret Ransone, of course, is running for reelection. You got three Democrats running in that race. Any thoughts there about these Democrats running in solid red districts?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, these are uncompetitive districts in the general election. It's hard to say who's afraid here because they don't really have much of a campaign compared to all these other candidates. I think that when it comes to 99, you know, the Black vote is very important there. When it comes to House District 7, the student vote is very important there, that's got some Blacksburg in it. And yeah, so you really have to have whichever candidate wants to win that primary they, in 99, you got to target the Black vote, and in 7, you really got to target the Virginia Tech students. And and in Floyd County, I would say there's a lot of hippies in the town of Floyd, it was one of the few counties, localities, that voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary last year. So you really, for 7, have to, if you want to win the primary, even though you're not going to win the general, you have to run as a progressive candidate. So whichever one of the candidates wants to do that, that's what you got to do in the seventh.

Thomas Bowman

Yeah, I'm glad to see that some Democrats are vying to get on the ballot in this race. Since it was such a problem in the recent past. I co founded a PAC to get some of these no hopers on the ballot against Republicans. And the rule there is look, you...for every, up to every $60,000 that these Democrats going against no hopers are gonna raise, they're gonna pull out an equivalent eight Republican dollars for every one Democratic dollar. And that holds up to about 60 grand. So the reality is, I'm really glad to see that there's interest in getting on the ballot. And then the rule is when you are on the Titanic, you raid the liquor cabinet, you have a lot of fun while you go down with the ship.

Michael Pope

One last thing before we end, predictions from both of you, if you are willing to make them. So we've talked about a bunch of incumbents who are facing primary challenges here. Are any of them going to lose?

Chaz Nuttycombe

Some of them are in strong danger. But currently, I don't think any of them are going to lose. But final predictions when it comes to these primaries will be out shortly before the primary in June. But currently, I don't think any of them are going to lose, though some are vulnerable, some more than others. But yeah, currently, I would bet on all the incumbents, but uh, you know, there's still some time for that to change in each of these races. I would definitely say, Lopez and Levine, those I would say tied for first place. Those are the ones I would say, are the most interesting and at most danger. I would also say Samirah is probably up there as well, probably at the number two spot. So I think Levine and Lopez are tied for first.

Thomas Bowman

I will be watching the Lopez race closely as a former constituent of Alfonzo's, but I think ultimately he's going to be fine. Incumbents are always a good bet. Incumbents win more than 88% of the time when there is a primary challenger. The incumbents who are most likely to lose, and there's a big asterisk there, because most likely to lose doesn't necessarily mean likely, in my opinion, are Guzman, just because you have some interesting drama unfolding with Rod Hall and something tells me that the Black vote in Prince William County is more substantial than the Hispanic vote in Prince William County, but we'll see. Mark Levine, one on one against an incredibly strong primary challenger, at least by the number of votes that she's proven capable of getting, out of Alexandria City. And then Ibraheem Samirah versus Irene Shin. I think Irene Shin is an incredibly strong challenger, she got the endorsement of Janet Howell in that district and that isn't easy to get when you are trying to take on an incumbent. And so she is absolutely one to watch, though it's an uphill battle to be sure. If you have comments, questions, disagreements, serious objections to what you just heard, or maybe you only want to tell us what you think about the show, write an email send it to us at TransitionVApodcast@gmail.com so we can read it on the air. Subscribe to Transition Virginia anywhere pods are cast, follow the Transition Team on Twitter @TransitionVA and find us on the web at TransitionVirginia.com. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you can enjoy our next episode of Transition Virginia.