Michael Pope

Welcome to Transition Virginia, the podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in Virginia. I'm Michael Pope.

Thomas Bowman

And I'm Thomas Bowman. Today's Transition Team briefing is about the Republican candidates for Governor. Delegates across the Commonwealth will select their statewide nominee for Governor in a May 8th convention, spanning 37 locations.

Michael Pope

Seven Republican candidates for Governor are on the convention ballot, and voters will use ranked choice voting to determine a first choice, and the second choice, and a third choice, and even a sixth and seventh choice. So who are these seven candidates and why are they running?

Thomas Bowman

We've got some familiar voices returning to the podcast to help us understand the candidates and what's happening inside the Republican Party. We've got former Republican member of the House of Delegates from Loudon County, who's now with the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. David Ramadan, thanks for coming back.

David Ramadan

Thank you for having me.

Michael Pope

We're also joined by Republican Politico from Roanoke, who's been a contributor to Bearing Drift and now writes for the Virginia Star. Matt Colt Hall, thanks for joining us.

Matt Colt Hall

Good evening, everybody. I hope everybody's having a nice quiet evening with a cold beverage in their hand.

Michael Pope

Well, it's not going to be quiet for long because we're talking politics, and specifically, Republican politics. Before we start with the candidates, let's sort of set the scene here with the convention and ranked choice voting. What's with the conventions, Matt? Why is it your party is always having conventions?

Matt Colt Hall

Lord. There are many in the party who believe that the reason for a convention is to control the outcome. There is two schools of thought in the Republican Party of Virginia. There is the primary crowd who says that we need to allow every person to have a chance to vote. And then there's the convention crowd that says that only the diehard and true need to vote. So they wanted to have a convention. Well, obviously, we are still coming out of the COVID-19 situation pandemic, where we can't just pack into the John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, and get 15,000 people packed in the rafters, that's just not going to work due to the Governor's restrictions on gatherings. So they spent about five or six months hem hawing, arguing, shouting, yelling, fussing, conniving, sniping, fighting back and forth, and they finally decided to do what's called an unassembled convention, meaning that it's almost like a firehouse primary. You will go for me and Lauren, my lovely bride, will go to the Salem Civic Center, I live in Roanoke City, we will go to the Salem Civic Center, we will cast a rank choice ballot. Now Miss Lauren is a vote counter at this convention. So she will be standing there dutifully, to make sure that only one ballot is put in the box. And once it's done, she will make sure that those ballots are shipped in a sealed container to the state party where they will be hand counted. That was a recent development, that the ballots shall be hand counted one by one by one. And we will not have a result in this convention until maybe Monday or Tuesday after the convention?

David Ramadan

Let's step back for a second to explain that the Virginia code allows parties to choose between using the state run primaries or have a party process to pick their nominees. Historically, both parties at different times have done so. Recently, it's been mostly Republicans who has done so, and primarily so that they control that only said Republicans can participate in the convention. The problem comes from the fact that Virginia does not have a party registration. Had we had party registration, whereby only Republicans, or registered Republicans, can pick a Republican ballot, only Democrats can pick a Democrat ballot, and then Independents can do neither, then we would see primaries all the time. Amazingly, when Republicans were in charge, they refused to go for party registration, those bills died every time they were introduced. We've had Democratic majority in Virginia for the last couple of years. And that has yet to change. So both parties want to keep that option available so that when if they want to attempt to control the outcome, as Matt had mentioned earlier, they would go for a convention. And this year, with the Wild West nomination that's going on among the Republican Party, there was an attempt and belief by even some who normally would vote for primaries, that they're better off with a convention so that they can prevent Amanda Chase from becoming the party nominee. There was talk that they could even disqualify her from even running as a Republican within the convention. That did not pan out and now she is one of the seven running. Now wiring choice, probably for the same reason, as far as the results are concerned, it's very hard for a hardcore person who can get 15, 20, 30% of the vote, perhaps, to reach 50% within a rank choice system. If there was no rank choice, then in a seven way convention, somebody who can get 15, 20% of the votes will end up winning. And that's an outcome they're trying to avoid to start with. Further, you cannot do multiple choices and keep people sitting if you cannot have them under one roof. And because of the COVID restrictions, everybody's going to vote and go and leave, they can't they can congregate. Therefore the rank choice becomes the easiest way to do it, instead of going one ballot after another in person.

Michael Pope

All right, well, let's talk about the candidates. And we want to start with Glenn Youngkin. And I want to start with him because he's raised more money than anybody else, almost $8 million. Now more than $5 million of that was a loan from himself. So chalk that up to the benefits of being filthy rich. He's the former head of the Carlyle Group, one of the world's largest private equity firms. This is how he introduces himself to voters.

Glenn Youngkin

I was working hard at a firm called the Carlyle Group that started out as a small firm and grew to be a big firm. And I had the amazing privilege to step in and lead it for a while with another gentleman after our founders stepped back. That was an amazing privilege. And I thought that that was a dream come true. But I had I had a calling last summer to step down from Carlyle and go into public service.

Michael Pope

I love this idea that the Carlyle Group is a small business that became a big business. What do we make of this bio, David Ramadan? Is this going to sell with Republican voters?

David Ramadan

Well, the way it's presented, it might sell. However, it's my understanding that's not necessarily the best presentation of the background here. The Carlyle Group was never really a small business. It started out as a big enterprise. And it's my understanding there Mr. Youngkin, who made it to co chair of the Carlyle Group, had left the Carlyle Group way before deciding to run for office, and that there was a disruption or misunderstood disagreement among the Carlyle Group leadership, so therefore, he left. Everybody's entitled to run, everybody can run. It's a great system. That's what democracy is all about. However, this is yet another millionaire who decided, you know, I got nothing better to do today and let me run. And even though the story of somebody who started with small group ended up with a big group, and I stepped down and doesn't jive. And for anybody who can spend five minutes researching on the internet, he or she will find out that that's not the story. And the numbers that we're seeing out there is...it makes it clear that he's not catching wind with people, he's not gaining support, takes a while to become a well known commodity among the electorate, especially when we're talking among convention electorate. That's a hardcore, you need to spend years of going from one committee to another, you need to have drinks and go to barbecue events and sit in backyards, and in veteran organizations and women groups, and there's simply not enough time to do that in eight or 10 months prior to an election. And therefore Mr. Youngkin is not going to catch the following that he expects to catch in a convention setting and predict that I don't think he will get more than 10% of the vote.

Thomas Bowman

Matt, private equity groups are the same groups that take over your workplace and fire everyone. How is Glenn Youngkin gonna play in a place like Southwest Virginia?

Matt Colt Hall

Well, I want to heavily disagree, because I've gotten a chance to know Glenn Youngkin and I can't say anything but I'm impressed. I'm not saying I endorse him, I'm not saying that I'm gonna vote for him. But just the character of the guy I've gotten to meet is just really genuine. And honestly, I was floored. People had started saying, "Oh, Glenn Youngkin is going to run for Governor. He's this very connected, you know, very wealthy businessman from DC." And immediately I was like, "Uh, this is gonna be rough." And then all of a sudden, he texts me and he says, "Matt, I know you're very influential in Southwest. I want you, you and I just have a conversation." I said, "That's fantastic." And so he called me at 6:30 one morning and we just talked over a cup of coffee over the phone, and talked about our life, and our family, and our faith, country music. He's a big George Strait fan. And we and we just got to know each other on a personal level. The thing that, you know, I think my friend Delegate Ramadan doesn't see is that his humanity, and his charisma are showing a lot of work ethic and showing that he's really connecting with people. The way I see it here in Western Virginia, is that people are just engaged with him. There was a recent forum at Liberty University, and he had campaigned for 12 hours prior to that forum. And after that forum, he stayed after for an hour and a half to talk to people, and literally was holding court. And people were just listening to every word he said, because he's just engaging and charismatic. I mean, the man oozes charisma. And the other thing about it is he's got a great community organizing effort. You know, specifically here in Roanoke, I've met the young guys who are working at, for example, Gavin here in Roanoke. Basically, his only job is to go out and community organize, similar to like Obama '08, where they're like, "Let's go into a community group, you get one person engaged, that person gets five people, and then so on and so forth." But unlike other campaigns statewide in Virginia, they've got one person for a county instead of one person for 15 counties. So that's going to play very differently. Are there things that Glenn has working against him? Sure. His name ID's not as high as other candidates. He's still trying to learn about how this process works. He's still new to us, and we're still learning things about him. But I think he's definitely a contender, I think he'll get definitely more than 10%. Personally, I think it's a two person race between Snyder and Youngkin.

Thomas Bowman

Matt, a minute ago, you mentioned Pete Snyder, so let's go to him. He's raised the second largest amount of money, almost 7 million. Once again, it pays to be filthy rich. Snyder loaned his campaign more than $5 million. So that makes two candidates in this race, who gave themselves 5 million. On the campaign trail, this is how he introduces himself to voters.

Pete Snyder

My career has been about building businesses, creating new industries, making dreams become reality, all while disrupting the status quo. We've had eight years of failed leadership by Northam, McAuliffe, and the rest of the career politicians. It's clear we need change. Virginia needs to lead again, and I will lead the way. Pete Snyder for Governor, innovator, disrupter, problem solver.

Thomas Bowman

Does Virginia need a disrupter?

Matt Colt Hall

Virginia probably does need a disrupter. I'm a little biased. I actually worked on Snyder's first campaign, as a young college intern on his Lieutenant Governor's race in 2013. And so Snyder has played the long game. And he's been working for this. And that's the advantage that Snyder has on Youngkin. It's a convention, so it's obviously about individual connections. And he has played the long game. He knows these activists, he knows, you know the details about them, the party leaders, the party elders, he knows everything about them. And he has a lot of the same folks that have run conventions in Virginia, sometimes to the chagrin of activists. It's the same people who have run, you know, conventions past. And so he knows the playing field, and he's played the long game to get to this nomination. I don't want to say that he feels like he's earned it because that's not the case, he is working hard to get that nomination. And he has been loyal to this party and worked very hard to get in the position he's in, to be in that top two front runner status, in my opinion.

David Ramadan

This is Snyder's convention to lose. He's been working this for eight years now. And he had had the time to go around the state, he had had the time to attend the barbecues. Heck, he's been holding the barbecues, and dragging his rig around, and feeding everybody around the state. He had played in every small committee meetings, every backyard gathering, and he had built a name for himself. It didn't pan out for him in the first one, just like it, I don't anticipate it panning out for Youngkin this time, simply because he didn't have the time, the first round, to build his name recognition and build those relationships. Look, when you look today at these, the candidates, there's really not a huge difference, with the exception of you know, put Amanda Chase out there on the side, there's not really a huge difference in ideology here. They're all talking about the same issues. So this becomes a matter of who's who has built relationships and Snyder had had the time to build those relationships. And that's why he is the front runner and that's why this is his convention to lose.

Michael Pope

Now, our next candidate is former House Speaker Kirk Cox. Now he has not given himself $5 million, but his gubernatorial campaign did receive more than $300,000 from his Leadership Committee. Overall, he's raised about $1 million, which would be a really good number if he wasn't running against millionaires who are bankrolling their campaigns. On the campaign trail, this is how he introduces himself to voters.

Kirk Cox

For 30 years, I taught U.S. in Virginia government. I taught about our representative democracy and the timeless principles is built on. Along the way, I got to coach a few ballgames, sharing with kids the values of character and hard work. Nowadays, it seems all that is under attack. Timeless principles like free speech, the freedom to worship, will be replaced with the cancel culture that says if you don't act and think like big city elites, you're ignorant and bigoted.

Michael Pope

David Ramadan, can Kirk Cox win by running against cancel culture?

David Ramadan

He cannot win regardless how he's running. Kirk is the most experienced candidate in this race with with 30 years in the House served as Speaker. He is probably the most influential policy wise and probably the person who has the most relationships within the Richmond circles. However, he has some weaknesses, one of which is he never was a grassroots leader, not outside of the Richmond and his district area. Even as Speaker, he wasn't, he wasn't the party leader per se, he was just the speaker and the Caucus leader. And Kirk had two votes that will hurt him and will continue to hurt him in any party nomination. He had ushered the highest tax increase or the second highest tax increase in Virginia history, the transportation bill, about 10 years ago, and then he had ushered Obamacare and in a, in a convention setting, where the hardcore of the party or the only voters, these are voters that don't want somebody who had voted for Obamacare, they don't want somebody who had ushered in raised taxes, and he will absolutely be at a disadvantage, and therefore whether he's running for or against any culture, there's no way that he can win.

Matt Colt Hall

So what I'd say about my friend, Speaker Cox, is that he has been a principled leader with the exception of those two votes. But the problem is you're running in a convention. And those two votes mean a lot to the convention base. Speaker Cox has really, you know, had a storied career in the General Assembly. And a lot of his endorsements are his former colleagues. However, as we get to the close of the campaign, you can start to tell that it's not...the math isn't adding up. And and I see that every day. I think he's definitely going to be a player in the convention. The thing about it is, though, I have yet to see, and this is something that really just makes me scratch my head, is that the Cox campaign keeps saying, "I've got all this support. I've got all the support," but the only time they ever talk about who's supporting him, are party officials and elected officials. I don't see a lot of the rank and file of the party. You know, your average just precinct captain or you're just regular convention attendee, or your regular Republican Party committee person supporting Kirk Cox. And I think that stems from they don't agree with his record on the two issues that Delegate Ramadan mentioned, especially the Medicaid expansion, because Virginians were told for years that you need to elect a Republican majority, and we will defeat Obamacare, we will not pass Medicaid expansion. And then all of a sudden, we pass it. And so a lot of voters that you talk to feel like, "We were told for 10 years, you weren't gonna do it. And then all of a sudden you did it." And so they kind of feel a little lied too. And that's not just indicative of Kirk Cox. There was a lot of people involved in that decision on, you know, my friend Terry Kilgore, and lots of folks. So the thing is, is that voters have some issues with his voting record. At the same time, he's got a lot of institutional support and party leadership. But I have yet to see that translate into the rank and file of the Republican Party. You know, your average Joe, who doesn't attend every committee meeting, or doesn't watch nine hours of Fox News, or, you know, the folks that don't listen to Transition Virginia, although they should. I don't see your regular party folks coming out and saying, "I want to vote for Kirk Cox." And I think that's his biggest problem.

Thomas Bowman

All right. Well, we're at least canceling the discussion on Kirk Cox to move to our next candidate. You can't put lipstick on a pig, but you can put lipstick on Senator Amanda Chase. The firebrand conservative Republican who likes to call herself, "Trump in heels." She's best known for speaking at the January 6th rally that led to the Capitol coup attempt. Then she defended the people involved by saying, "These were not rioters and looters. These were patriots." Then she denied she ever called the people who stormed the Capitol "patriots" and unsuccessfully tried to cancel Michael Pope. This is how she introduces herself to voters.

Amanda Chase

What I believe I bring is something we've never had before. We've never had a Republican woman to seek the Republican nomination for Governor. You know, 50% of the population is women. And that's the demographic we need. We also need suburbia women and I am a suburban woman.

Thomas Bowman

Can Amanda Chase increase Republican votes among suburbian women?

Matt Colt Hall

Yeah, no, not gonna happen. I'm sorry. I had to laugh. I couldn't hold it in. I tried. I tried. If my editors listening, I really tried. I prayed and I tried and it didn't work. No, she she will, she will embarrass us in the suburbs. Senator Chase, just, she has lit her hair on fire. And the Republican voters are just kind of getting tired of it. I'm going to be honest, there are a lot of the people who are attending this convention, who have just heard her stomp her feet and scream at the top of her lungs for far too long. She has turned into the boy who cried wolf. She is the Amanda who cried nonsense. And she constantly is screaming and squawking about something. And you know, at some point, voters just kind of turn her off. And I think she's at that point, you saw it in her finance report, she had a very weak Q1 finance report, she got banned from Facebook, and you have to either follow her personal Facebook page, or you have to find one of her supporters who will post about where she's at. And she doesn't have the organization to actually get a convention together, which might have been the reason why we have a convention, I think it was in my personal opinion. But she just constantly, she's constantly lighting her hair on fire and getting mad about every little thing. And it's every day and she's making everyone mad. And literally the thing about it is the Richmond community, the political community left, right, and center, is looking to find someone to primary her in 2023 because they're just so frustrated. I don't think she makes it to the final ballot. And to be honest, I think her political career is kind of shot at this point.

David Ramadan

Look, Amanda Chase is the epitome of what's wrong with the Republican party today and what's and the epitome of that xenophobic, White nationalist, populist segment of American society that is unAmerican by definition. She uses standard language that she had picked up from every xenophobe and racist out there to scare people off. She doesn't belong in any realm of politics. She doesn't belong in any realm of public office. She is right that Republicans need the woman vote, she is right that Republicans need the suburbian demographic. But what she doesn't understand or even comprehend, that she is exactly the reason and the example of why women in America are not voting Republican, and why minorities in America are not voting Republican, and why suburbia is not voting Republican. Sadly, she will probably be the top candidate on the first ballot. But she- there's, I don't see how, by any, in any formula, that she is the second, third, or fourth choice for anybody but that xenophobic, racist, nationalist segment that will go there to vote for her and for nobody else. And therefore in a choice ballot, like we have in rank choice ballot, she's not likely to make it.

Michael Pope

So before we move on to the next candidate, David Ramadan, I want to make sure I put a pin in this. So at the top, you said one of the reasons for having a convention was specifically to prevent her from getting the nomination. Now, under a sort of normal rules where you had the candidate with the most votes winning the nomination, she actually might end up walking away from the convention with the nomination. However, that's not what they're doing. It's not just a convention, it's also a convention with rank choice voting. So do you think that rank choice voting, and you- the first choice and the second choice, and you eliminate the candidate with the lowest number of votes, and you and you distribute those votes, do you think that that actually prevents her from getting the nomination?

David Ramadan

Correct. The initial thought of having the convention, was partly to try to eliminate her from running because in a convention, there's a Conventions Committee, a Rules Committee, subcommittee of the SCC, that's going to decide who qualifies to, to be a candidate or not. And because she's been kicked out of the Republican Party in her local county, because she is no longer a member of the Caucus, there is an argument to make that she shouldn't be allowed to run in that convention. However, that ship has sailed and they allowed her to, but the back door to this is that rank choice will likely result in her not being able to gather enough voters to win. Now, let me tell you, if I'm wrong, and I have been wrong before, after all, Donald Trump became president. Who called it? Nobody did, I certainly didn't. If I'm wrong, and she ends up to be the nominee, that means more than 50% of the Republican electorate in Virginia had, in in the convention, had chosen her to be the nominee. And that will absolutely be the end of the mailbox called RPV and answering machine that exists. Even that answering machine a mailbox at that point needs to shut down and go home.

Michael Pope

So we haven't talked about the rest of the candidates yet. We're going to get around to them. Matt, I want to ask you a question. So if you're an Octavia Johnson voter and you're, you know, Octavia Johnson is the first off the list, is there any possibility that Amanda Chase is your number two? Similarly, if you're a Peter Doran voter, and Peter Doran is eliminated in round two, is there any chance that Amanda Chase is your number two, choice? Similarly, Sergio de la Pena, for the de la Pena voters, once he's eliminated, is there any chance those voters put Amanda Chase as their number two?

Matt Colt Hall

I haven't met any person supporting Octavia Johnson, Peter Doran or Sergio de la Pena. Just truthfully, honestly, like they're either Snyder, Youngkin, Chase, very few Cox people, and these other three, like they just started running, we don't know who they are. And so even Octavia Johnson, who was my sheriff in Roanoke City, which Lord knows what she's doing, because I don't...she has $800 cash on hand to run for Governor of the Commonwealth and I'm still baffled at what she's doing. You know, I, there's no way of knowing because I have yet to meet an actual like, bonafide, "This is who I'm supporting. I'm supporting Octavia Johnson, or Peter Doran." A few party activists have posted on social media that they're supporting Sergio de la Pena. I want to be fair to him. I think it's a little more clear as to where the top fours delegates might go. Um, but but the bottom three candidates, I have no idea.

Michael Pope

Well, actually, since you said that, let's sort of zoom through our final three candidates here. So Sergio de la Pena has raised about $300,000. That's a very small amount of money compared to everybody else. This is how he introduces himself on the campaign trail.

Sergio de la Pena

I came from Mexico, I was raised in house with dirt floors, no running water, picking cotton at 10, 20 different jobs before I joined the army. I went Airborne Ranger School before I started in the army, which gave me the foundation for leadership that I would later put into effect. The time I was in the army, I fought socialists and communists the entire time I was in the army, and I continue to do so even to this day, because what we've seen is that they've gone from bullets to ballots.

Michael Pope

So many of these candidates are running against socialism, but de la Pena has this personal story. Can someone who came from Mexico get the Republican nomination to run for Governor?

David Ramadan

No.

Matt Colt Hall

No.

Thomas Bowman

Next step is Peter Doran, he has raised to $16,000. This is how he introduces himself on the campaign trail.

Peter Doran

I spent my career helping countries that have been destroyed by socialism, to charter a new path and to get strong. I wrote the book on how to take down big monopolies. I'm running for Governor, because I think it's about time that we had a candidate with a winning conservative vision leading our Commonwealth. Virginia should be the best. Number one in schools, number one and safety, number one in jobs. Not top five, not pretty good, I mean, number one.

Thomas Bowman

Can a guy who only raised 16 yellow poker chips make Virginia number one?

David Ramadan

No.

Matt Colt Hall

No.

Michael Pope

All right. Well, then next up is former Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson, she's raised about $1,000. This is how she talks about herself on the campaign trail.

Octavia Johnson

Everybody has heard of all the other candidates. They know what their message is. Now they're going to hear Octavia Johnson's message. And that will help them to decide who is stale bread and who is fresh bread.

Michael Pope

Matt Colt Hall, is your former sheriff fresh bread?

Matt Colt Hall

Uh...no. She was Sheriff and then she lost her election. And then she ran in the district where Sam Rasoul currently serves, in the special against Sam Rasoul. And she failed in that election very miserably, very poorly run campaign. Speaker Howell poured like $100,000 into that race and failed miserably. And she hasn't done anything politically since except show up to a few Republican women's meetings and few committee meetings here in the city of Roanoke. And then all of a sudden she wants to run for Governor. I have no idea what she's doing, no idea at all. And like we live five miles apart from each other. I just I don't know. I don't know of a single Roanoke resident, who is not her family member, who is supporting her. It's odd.

Thomas Bowman

Ouch. We're gonna take a break. But before we do, in the tradition of ranked choice voting, we are going to determine that none of these candidates have achieved a majority of votes yet, so we're going to eliminate three candidates with the least amount of money. When we come back. We'll talk about issues behind the campaign's of Glenn Youngkin, Pete Snyder, Kirk Cox, and Amanda Chase.

Michael Pope

And we're back on Transition Virginia. We're talking about the Republican candidates for Governor and we're gonna get into what they would do if elected.

Thomas Bowman

Let's start with our big money candidate Glenn Youngkin. This is Youngkin talking to Don Chroa at WAVA.

Glenn Youngkin

When this Governor opened up massage parlors and ABC stores and kept my church closed last year, I knew he didn't share the same values I do. So we're going to stand up for our first amendment rights. But we're also going to stand up for the unborn. We're going to stand up for our 10th amendment right and the overreach from Washington right now. Goodness gracious Don. They're actually debating a bill to pack the court.

Thomas Bowman

Alright, so is this a message that will work with Republicans?

David Ramadan

With the Republicans it will. But if we're assuming that this person has gotten the nomination at that point, this is a losing message in the General.

Matt Colt Hall

The fact of the matter is, is that we're going into an election that is going to be directly after the first year of Biden/Harris, you know, and, yes, there used to be the old tradition in Virginia, that whoever was in the White House, the opposing party would be in the Governor's Mansion of the Commonwealth. That's been thrown out the windows since the election of Terry McAuliffe. However, it could connect with Virginia voters. And that's not indicative of Youngkin, that's indicative of everyone, that this election will probably, at the end of it, turn into a referendum on the Biden first year in office.

Michael Pope

Next up is our other big money candidate in this race, Pete Snyder.

Pete Snyder

Illegal immigration costs taxpayers billions, and it brings crime and gangs into our communities. Northam and McAuliffe won't take violent illegals off our streets, but I will. When I'm Governor, I'll enforce the law and deport violent criminals.

Michael Pope

David Ramadan, will scapegoating undocumented immigrants by calling them, "illegals" work to secure the nomination at this convention?

David Ramadan

Yeah, it'll it'll it'll absolutely work for the convention. And it'll absolutely guarantee a loss in the General Election again. Doesn't matter who you can plug change names here. Snyder, Youngkin, Cox, Chase, doesn't matter who the name is. Any and all of these messages that we're hearing are messages purely to win the Republican Convention. And these are messages that are absolutely messages that will not resonate with the majority of the populace in Virginia, they will not resolute with the electorate power centers, such as Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. And so, and therefore, these are messages that are just, in my mind, guarantees the loss in the General Election.

Matt Colt Hall

Well, not to completely disagree with the gentleman from South Riding, but I am going to disagree with the gentleman from South Riding. Because, you know, Mr. Snyder's campaign has focused on opening schools. And I can tell you right now, the biggest frustration amongst middle class families in Virginia, is that our schools are still closed, and that we aren't trying to at least go to a hybrid model, if not opening schools five days a week. I completely agree with Mr. Snyder. I'm not endorsing Mr. Snyder, but what I'm saying is, we need to get our schools open.

David Ramadan

Matt, my friend, by the time that the general election come around, schools will be open. It's it's an old issue.

Michael Pope

Also, Matt, we're talking about immigration here. What do you make of his position on immigration?

Matt Colt Hall

I think that it's a concern of the Republican base. I think there is a concern, and there's a way to word it very differently than what he's wording it. You know, I don't like that we're using the terminology he's using. But there is a concern amongst the base of what's happening at the border since President Biden took office. There is a concern. I understand that a lot of folks may not see that, but there is a concern amongst the Republican base and a concern amongst average voters, that there is a problem at our southern border.

David Ramadan

It's more than a concern. It's a fear. It's a phobia at this point to the Republican base, but that does not win you general elections. Numbers are not there. These are these are messages that are not that are not resonating with the majority of the populace of Virginia. And that's why whoever ends up the nominee of the Party because of this messaging, and this is not, not against any single one of the Republican nominees, but regardless of who the nominee is, because of the messaging that is prevalent to the party, and that we're seeing from all of them, they will end up losing this election by double digits.

Matt Colt Hall

I disagree.

Michael Pope

That Snyder ad did remind me of that infamous Gillespie ad on immigration. And remember what happened to Ed Gillespie, he lost.

Matt Colt Hall

Well, that was a total pot shot of an ad. I still am bitter about that ad, that was not the character of who Ed Gillespie was. Ed Gillespie is my friend and a kind and good hearted man, and a strong man of Christian faith. And I'm still angry about that ad and it's been four years. You know, and I don't think that's Pete Snyder's character. I don't think that's a majority the Republican fields character, and I don't think it's a majority of Republican voters character. There is a concern about immigration amongst the average populace in America. I know that MSNBC doesn't portray that, but there is a real concern about the way this is happening at our southern border and the fact that we're cramming these folks into these detention centers, and we're not doing this in a way, and I'm not saying I have the complete 100% answer, but what I'm saying is their real concerned. And I think it's more than just the Republican base. Just to write it off as a Republican base is wrong. I think it's the average American is concerned about it. I think there's a way to word it that's a little more presentable. But at the same time, we can't just write it off and say, "Oh, just the base is concerned about it. No, everyday Americans and everyday Virginians are concerned about what's happening at our southern border.

Thomas Bowman

All right, well, we got to move on, because these are all good points and food for thought. But next up is Kirk Cox who depaste his career trying to undercut women's health care. Here's one of his spots highlighting the issue.

Kirk Cox

When I first heard the Governor's radio interview, where he basically advocated for abortion, right up until birth, a couple steps that I took an unprecedent step, the Speaker, I came off the podium, the dias, went down to the floor, made a speech on how important life was, I will never stop fighting for the promise of life. I would do anything I could, as Speaker to stop that. I will stand up to the pro abortion radicals.

Thomas Bowman

Alright, let's talk about this moment in 2019, when Speaker Cox walked down those steps, and took a spot on the House floor to give a speech opposing abortion rights. What does that moment tell us about Speaker Cox? David Ramadan, I'll start with you.

David Ramadan

Look, this is a very, very personal issue for Kirk. And this is this is his deep belief. And I respect that. And and I share that belief in life. However, this moment, in particular, was at the time, regardless of how personal, regardless how genuine it was, it was also a time where Kirk was Kirk, not Kirk, as a Speaker. And and we've seen in the last couple of months, some shots coming up against him for the lack of leadership, from a couple of his Caucus members, current Caucus members, that took a shot at him for for that moment, and for other moments. So again, this will be a winning message in general, in a normal Republican Primary, not in a convention that we're seeing today. However, there's not enough goodwill here to make up for him in the Convention against the two other issues that we talked about earlier, and certainly is not going to be an issue that would win in the General Election.

Matt Colt Hall

I would say that, my friend, Speaker Cox, has always been a leader, when it comes to the issue of life. And I really respect that, because he's not, the thing when it comes to Speaker Cox is he's not angry about the issue. He doesn't get all in your face about it, but he approaches it from a position of Christian love. And he approaches it from a way that he wants to understand. And he almost approaches it like that teacher mentality of, "I want to, I want to help you understand the issue, and I want to work with you." So I think it's great for our Party to talk about, but at the same time, I don't think it's going to resonate, and overshadow the votes on Medicaid expansion, and other things that he had to take in his career with the convention voters.

Michael Pope

All right, our next candidate is Amanda Chase, who has been repeating the big lie that the election was stolen. On the Senate floor, she used the word "patriot" to describe the Q-Aanon supporter who illegally entered the Capitol and ignored police commands to stop as she crawled through broken glass to get into the Speaker's lobby, where members of Congress were fleeing from their safety. On the floor of the Virginia Senate, this is what Senator Amanda Chase said about that day.

Amanda Chase

I want you to say a name. Ashley Babbitt. Say her name, an unarmed veteran who was shot by Capitol Police. The woman fatally shot inside the US Capitol, Wednesday, has been identified as Ashley Babbitt. Babbitt was a 14 year veteran who served four tours with the Air Force and resided in San Diego, according to media reports. Babbitt was a strong supporter of President Trump, according to her husband. We remember Ashley and the three who died of medical emergencies and the Capitol Police officer who died during the chaos at the Capitol. These were not rioters and looters. These were patriots who love their country and do not want to see our great Republic turn into a socialist country.

Michael Pope

David Ramadan, can the big lie win over a majority of these Republican delegates?

David Ramadan

She'll win the 20 to 30% of the delegates that will come in. And that's the limit of that big lie. However, the problem with a big lie and the problem with individuals like Amanda Chase is that they are truly poisoning the rest of the party. Unfortunately, there's still 50% or so of the Republican base that believes that the election was stolen, it was not. They believe that these idiots that went to the Capitol Hill are patriots, they are not, they are looters. They believe that what they were doing was patriotic. It is not, that was unAmerican, and that was illegal. And they deserve to be thrown in jail. And that's that's where they belong.

Matt Colt Hall

Senator Chase's rhetoric was absolutely uncalled for. Now, there are concerns of ballot integrity, especially when it comes to changes in voter ID laws and voter access laws and things like that. I think there's a genuine concern, and I think there's, you know, thoughts amongst the Republican base that there were problems in this election. Now, whether it was stolen, you know, that's that's up to somebody who's way above my paygrade.

David Ramadan

Oh, come on my brother.

Matt Colt Hall

No, now now Delegate Ramadan, we can-

David Ramadan

Can't be above your paygrade. There is no stolen election, period. And if we don't start from that, then we are poisoning the entire discussion. There was no stolen election, period.

Matt Colt Hall

But my friend, Delegate Ramadan, could you say without a shadow of a doubt that every ballot that was cast, every ballot in every part of the United States of America was absolutely 100% valid? And the answer is no. And there were problems with the fact that voter ID laws weren't being followed, or they had been repealed in the first place. There were concerns. I'm not saying the election was stolen, I'm saying there were concerns raised, I'm not saying that they were all right concerns, but we have a problem in our country where we can't have civil discourse anymore. And if you disagree, therefore, you're wrong. And you need to push out a society. And therefore, we should be able to have open discussion and say, "Look, here's the concerns I have, here's the concerns you have, and let's come to, you know, we may not come to an agreement, but we're not going to yell at each other in the process." And that's what we lost in that entire 2020 election, in my personal opinion.

David Ramadan

Now, we lost more than that, my friend. We lost, we lost the basis of what's fact and what's fiction. You can disagree on things and you're entitled to an opinion, but nobody's entitled to their own facts. There was not a stolen election, there was a process, a process was verified again, and again, and again. There were lawsuits, they all came out short and false. So if we even again, entertain that thought, then we are starting with the wrong base. And if we don't have a base to start with, if we don't have facts that are absolutely indisputable to start with, then there couldn't be even a discussion, mind you to have a civil discussion. And the minute that we are even allowing that, that that discussion of a stolen election to be within the same discussion of, "well, maybe and no, and it's above," no, no, no, there's no maybe. There was no stolen election period. No discussion about that.

Thomas Bowman

All right, we've got some relevant listener mail from Robert Dyer. And he says, "Thank you for your podcast. It's really helped him understand the political landscape of Virginia." He's got a question related to the current '21 primary campaigns. "The GOP is doing a convention this year on May 8th, while the Democratic Party has a primary on June 8th. He's wondering if there's anything stopping typical GOP voters from participating in the June 8th primary?"

David Ramadan

Anyone can walk into the June primary, as long as they are a registered voter and vote. There is no party registration in Virginia, therefore, a Republican independent or a Democrat can walk in and vote. That said, it's not likely that you're going to see a big number, or even a small number, of Republicans are going to participate in the Democratic primary.

Matt Colt Hall

If they wanted to participate in a Republican run nominating contests in a in the near future. So like, for example, you vote in the Democratic primary in June, and then in 2022, you want to participate in a convention or a mass meeting. And they are able to find through the voter record that you participate in a Democratic primary. Now you can get out of this problem by renouncing that in a written statement, which is so ridiculous. But you can renounce that written statement and you can go ahead and go vote, unless you've done the written statement before, and then you do it again. And then you're banished for four years.

Thomas Bowman

You know, the other thing he brings up is that he wants to know, hypothetically, is there a chance these voters knock out Terry McAuliffe from winning the nomination and instead elect someone like Lee Carter? So Republicans who don't even want to bother with the Republican nomination, or maybe they did, and the convention means that they can still vote in the Democratic primary? He wants to know if can they all get together and elect somebody like Lee Carter, who presumably would be less appetizing at a state level, than someone like Terry McAuliffe?

David Ramadan

Theoretically, we can sit down and dream up a scenario where this would happen, however, practically, and realistically, it will be so minuscule that it will not even register a one percentage difference statewide.

Michael Pope

All right, one last question before we end this podcast. This has been a lot of fun. I really appreciate both of you coming on. I'm gonna put you both on the spot and make predictions here. How many rounds do you think we're going to go through? And what do you think the top one, two, and three are going to be? David Ramadan, I'll start with you.

David Ramadan

Probably go through five or six rounds, because of the number. At the end, my prediction will be Snyder will come out as the winner with Amanda Chase either number two or three, and then three or four between Youngkin and Kirk Cox.

Matt Colt Hall

So I will tell you, I think it's gonna go three rounds. I think the final round will have Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, and Amanda Chase. I do not want to specify where they will be on that third ballot. As I like to tell people, everybody wants me to look into my crystal ball and my crystal ball has Smith Mountain Lake water in it as a joke for Delegate Ramadan. It has lake water in it, it's green, I can't tell. And I have no idea what order they will be in. But my best guess will be that the final ballot will contain Pete Snyder, Glenn Youngkin, and Amanda Chase.

Michael Pope

So it sounds like both of the predictions are for Snyder, is that right?

Matt Colt Hall

Well, I think that the top two are Snyder/Youngkin. I'm not going to specify who's ahead and who's not. But I am going to say that the top two were Snyder/Youngkin. Yeah.

Michael Pope

Okay, interesting.

Thomas Bowman

Snyder/Youngkin. Hm. And somewhere between ballots number three and five.

Michael Pope

Okay, great. Any other thoughts about this May 8th, Republican convention?

David Ramadan

Yes. Despite all of our analysis and predictions, it is an unassembled convention, which means it is a crapshoot and anything could happen.

Matt Colt Hall

My hope is that every Republican in the Commonwealth of Virginia who signed up to be a delegate, will go out and participate, get involved, say your, say your piece, and get it out there. And I would encourage anyone who's listening, do what my wife Lauren is doing. She is actually volunteering, I can't volunteer because you know, I'm in the media and stuff like that. But my wife's gonna volunteer to make sure that, you know, the process runs smoothly, that ballots are being distributed properly, volunteer and make your voice heard. And on a final note, oh, my God, I just hope this thing ends quickly. I'm ready to have a weekend away from campaign life. I love it. I enjoy it so much. And I thank every reader, every listener and every person who puts up with my nonsense, but I'm ready for this to be over. I hate to admit it, but I'm ready for it to be done.

Thomas Bowman

You and me both, Matt. Let's just get on to overlord McAuliffe.

Matt Colt Hall

No, there is no return to the Mac. There is no return of the Mac none. I want a Republican governor.

Thomas Bowman

So that's all for this episode.

Michael Pope

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Thomas Bowman

Like and follow @TransitionVA on Twitter and anywhere pods are cast.

Michael Pope

Read the transcripts at TransitionVirginia.com and special thanks to Emily Cottrell for figuring out what the heck we're saying.

Thomas Bowman

Thanks for being on the transition team. We're your hosts, Thomas Bowman.

Michael Pope

And I'm Michael Pope.