This week, we're joined by Laura Stokes, the campaign manager for Senator-Elect Saddam Salim, who successfully primaried incumbent Senator Chap Petersen this summer before winning the general this month. Laura breaks down her campaign strategy--including win numbers, voter-outreach, and overcoming a money deficit--that earned the historic win.

IN THE NEWS:

• While Democrats have a majority in the state House and Senate, those margins are razor-thin--which leaves open some questions about the balance of power. Can Republicans peel off votes for specific issues? What happens if Democrats are sick, out-of-town, or appointed to executive roles?

• With Scott Surovell set to become the Senate Majority Leader and Don Scott as Speaker of the House, there's new leadership for the Democrats--and thirty new faces among the one-hundred seats in the Capitol building. What does that mean for the legislature this year?

• The final votes are still being counted in the 2023 election, but both parties are already at work recruiting new candidates for 2025.

• Recent recruitment efforts like Senator-Elect Danica Roem's Emerge have seen some big wins across the state, so there's a lot to be said about the power of choosing wisely.

At the Watercooler:

• Susanna Gibson's comments about her election and the Washington Post piece may have tilted things out of her favor. Michael and Lauren discuss crisis communications and the tricky balance Gibson may have faced in dealing with the situation.

• New leadership across Senate Committees--Louise Lucas will chair Finance, Mamie Locke will chair the Rules Committee, Scott Surovell will chair Judiciary, and more. Plus, shake-ups in the House seniority order that have huge effects on positions down the line.

Karl Frisch, Vice Chair of Fairfax County's School Board, joins Michael to discuss last week's elections in terms of school boards across the Commonwealth. By and large, it was a rejection of book-bannings and anti-trans policies, with big wins for moderate and Democratic candidates in many localities, including some that went for Governor Youngkin in 2021. They also discuss the rise of several Fairfax County School Board members to statewide office, and how that will impact the incoming General Assembly as leadership power shifts away from Northern Virginia.

IN THE NEWS:

• Michael and Lauren break down the results in key races from the 2023 state House and Senate races--and what the Democratic win means for strategy this year and in 2024.

At the Watercooler:

• The FBI headquarters is set to be in Maryland, not Virginia how did it happen, and did it have anything to do with Youngkin's comments as Governor?

• With Jennifer Wexton announcing her plans to retire from Congress, several Virginia Democrats have started looking toward running for her Northern Virginia seat.

Michael is joined by VPM's Jahd Khalil to break down some of the biggest takeaways from the Democrats' big win on Tuesday. With Don Scott now set to be the Speaker of the House, what will his leadership look like? How will new representatives work across the aisle? What can we learn from local results like Richmond's second denial of a casino? And who will become the new Senate Majority Leader?

IN THE NEWS:

• On the Airwaves: If you've been watching TV, you've seen the ads--Democrats portraying Republicans as conspiracy theorists and extremists trying to criminalize abortions, while Republicans are portraying Joe Biden's America as dangerous and lawless. And these ads--the result some massive ad buys--all pretty much sound the same, no matter where in the state you are.

• Plus, despite what the Republican ads say, crime is down in both Virginia and the United States. Violent crime is down almost 40 percent since the early 90s. Murder is down 20 percent. Property crime, is down 60 percent, and it's currently at one of the lowest rates ever.

• One last bit of messaging news--one line of attack from Republicans takes aim at electric cars, and a bill signed by Governor Northam that would mandate all new car sales in the states to be EVs by 2035. Michael and Lauren discuss where Virginians stand on the issue of electric vehicles and how it might affect the election this week.

At the Watercooler:

• Rumors of a Youngkin presidential run next week.

• A great debate last week between Schuyler VanValkenburg and Siobhan Dunnavant--with a couple of moderate positions.

This week, Michael and Lauren are joined by House Democratic Leader Don Scott for a final preview of the upcoming General Assembly elections. Leader Scott talks about the Democratic focus on abortion and education, responds to criticisms from House Speaker Todd Gilbert, and gives his takes on some of the hottest races that'll be decided next week--which might land him a role as Speaker if the Democrats win the majority.

IN THE NEWS:

• Souls to the Polls: Every jurisdiction in Virginia is required to offer voting for two Saturdays before election day. But Sunday is a different story. Registrars are allowed to schedule Sunday hours, but they're not required. House Democratic Leader Don Scott says he can understand smaller jurisdictions that are strapped for cash not having the resources to offer Sunday voting. But he says that does not explain Virginia's largest city, Virginia Beach, opting against Sunday voting this year even though they had it for the previous two years.

• PAC Attack: So far, Governor Youngkin hasn't been forking over big money for Senate candidates in toss up races. Instead he saved his largest contribution for a seat that leans Democratic in Henrico. Many people are wondering why the governor is spending almost a million dollars in this election instead of the toss up races.

• Early and Often: House District 71 includes James City County, Williamsburg and parts of New Kent County in the peninsula. It also has something special, the highest number of ballots cast so far. The race features incumbent Republican Delegate Amanda Batten and Democratic challenger Jessica Anderson--both of whom agree that 45 days of early voting is too much.

At the Watercooler:

• Republicans are getting desperate in the race against Susanna Gibson--mailing flyers containing explicit images to voters in the 57th district. All the while,

• Delegate Matt Fariss is in court for an alleged hit-and-run - Alexandria politics are about to get upended with a vote on Zoning for Housing, Housing for All--a proposal to alter housing zoning laws and address equity issues.

This week, Michael is joined by Mark Rozell, Dean of GMU's Schar School, to review and analyze TV commercials in several key House and Senate races. They break down what we can learn from the ads--including the consistent messaging on abortion and education, the massive price tags that look more like Congressional races, and what the messaging might mean for campaign strategy and voters this November.

IN THE NEWS:

• Following The Money: Democrats raised more money overall, but Republicans have more cash on hand heading into the final weeks of election season. They also have the support of Governor Glenn Youngkin, whose PAC has given more than $700,000 to help incumbent Republican Senator Siobhan Dunnavant. Thomas and Michael talk about where the money is going--or not going--and what strategies might be running through the Governor's head.

• Poll Position: Republicans are leaning into the issue of abortion, hoping that their support for a 15-week ban will resonate with voters. But a new poll from the Wason Center says they may have miscalculated. The poll also shows book bans are widely unpopular and that a majority supports parental notification if students want to use different pronouns.

• Democracy in Virginia: Election deniers are in key positions of power in several Virginia jurisdictions: Albemarle, Frederick, Hampton, Loudoun, Lynchburg, Newport News, Portsmouth and Roanoke. That's according to a new report from the nonpartisan group Informing Democracy, which highlighted comments and social media posts of election officials.

At the Watercooler:

• Eileen Filler-Corn is considering a run for Congress.

• Senator Chap Petersen endorses a Republican for Fairfax County Board of Supervisors

Friend of the pod Lauren Burke of BURKEFILE and Black Virginia News joins Michael to discuss clips from Virginia House and Senate candidates at Roland Martin's Town Hall. From early voting to assault weapons to book bans and the potential removal of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. from Virginia's curriculum, the comments cover the range of topics that might sway November's election--especially those of interest to Virginia's Black community

IN THE NEWS:

• Early turnout has been strongest in competitive Senate races in Newport News and Loudoun County as well as House races in Prince William County and Petersburg--and these early numbers could suggest a changing Republican strategy.

• Virginia was the first state in the country to remove minor traffic violations as a reason to stop motorists, a law aimed at cracking down on racial profiling. Now, some cities in Virginia want to revisit that law and bring back the ability of officers to stop drivers for expired inspection stickers broken tail lights, or even objects dangling from the rearview mirror.

• Black people in Virginia are incarcerated at a rate that is four times the rate for white people. That's according to a new report from the Prison Policy Initiative--likely due to decisions in the 80s and 90s to abolish parole and institute mandatory minimum sentences. Advocates for reducing mass incarceration in Virginia say state lawmakers should consider compassionate release and re-instituting a system for parole.

At the Watercooler:

• Credit where credit's due to Governor Youngkin for his Partnership for Petersburg, bringing business and attention to a struggling region of the state.

• A report from Informing Democracy points out some vulnerabilities in Virginia's electoral system.

Pod Virginia favorites David Ramadan and Sam Shirazi joins Michael to discuss the competitive races in the upcoming elections, which will decide the fate of both the state House and Senate. The races include:

• Russet Perry vs Juan Pablo Segura in SD31

• Monty Mason vs Danny Diggs in SD24

• Kara Durant vs Joel Griffin vs Monica Gary in SD27

• Emily Brewer vs Clint Jenkins SD17

• Susanna Gibson vs David Owen in HD57

• Karen Greenhalgh vs Michael Feggans in HD97

• Josh Thomas vs John Stirrup in HD21

• Travis Nembhard vs Ian Lovejoy in HD22

• Kim Taylor vs Kimberly Pope Adams in HD82

• Baxter Ennis vs Karen Jenkins HD89

• Joshua Cole vs Lee Peters in HD65

IN THE NEWS:

• A coalition of payday lenders is challenging the constitutionality of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was set up in a way to make sure its funding source is protected from Congress. Now consumer advocates here in Virginia who have worked against payday loans, car title loans, and high-interest online loans, they’re worried about what might happen if the court rules against the bureau.

• Almost 400 book titles have been challenged this year in Virginia, according to the American Library Association. Advocates for free expression in literature say the recent trend of people challenging a list of books they got off the internet poses a real threat.

• Voting started last month, and so many people will have already voted when television commercials are airing and direct mail is arriving. Virginia's 45 days of early voting is a recent development and one that hasn't seemed to change much of how campaigns operate--but should it?

This week, Michael is joined by Dr. Stephen Farnsworth, co-author of a chapter in The New Dominion: The Twentieth-Century Elections That Shaped Modern Virginia. They discuss the 1981 election of Chuck Robb for Virginia's Governor--how Robb escaped the legacy of the Byrd Machine and President Johnson's Great Society, pushing the Democratic message to a more centrist line that would hold for the next several decades. The New Dominion - UVA Press (virginia.edu)

IN THE NEWS:

• Thomas and Aaryan discuss the fight over the funding for Samuels Library, where a local Catholic group has called for books featuring LGBTQ+ people to be banned and for ties to be cut with the American Library Association.

• Delegate Dave LaRock launches a write-in campaign for Senate District 1, calling Republican nominee Tommy French a "Democrat."

• A new poll from the University of Mary Washington reveals Virginians want the governor to have less power in the classroom, though he's nearly tied with Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup for President.

This week, Michael and Thomas are joined by Bob Brink, former Chairman of Virginia's State Board of Elections, to discuss the ERIC system-- the Electronic Registration Information Center, which allowed neighboring states to share voter registration information with each other and help prevent voter fraud. Governor Youngkin has pulled Virginia out of ERIC, so what does that mean for elections going forward? Originally Aired: May 18, 2023.

• Thomas and Michael discuss the top competitive races in the upcoming election, where Democrats are largely out-fundraising their Republican opponents. The races include:

• Russet Perry vs Juan Pablo Segura in Senate District 31

• Monty Mason vs Danny Diggs in Senate District 24

• Susanna Gibson vs David Owen in House District 57

• Michael Feggans vs Karen Greenhalgh in House District 97

• Kimberly Pope Adams vs Kim Taylor in House District 82

• Josh Thomas vs John Stirrup in House District 21.

• At the Watercooler: Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton announced that she will not be seeking re-election on account of a serious medical diagnosis

• Plus the facts about what really happened with Susanna Gibson--and why there's nothing immoral about sleeping with your husband.

• This week, communications and marketing expert Eileen Cassidy Rivera joins Michael to talk about her new book: Hard Talk: Confessions of an Accidental Marketing and Communications Professional. She discusses the growing importance of marketing and communications specialists for government contractors--providing insights into the coroporate side of conversations with journalists and media. Hard Talk on Amazon

• Virginia is not doing a great job of attracting new people. Data from state agencies and the US Postal Service show the state is losing more people than it's gaining. Most of those leaving are young adults and families getting priced out of the state.

• A new poll from Founder's Insights shows Virginia voters are, like always, most interested in the economy. This year, abortion is another critical issue on many voters' priority lists.

• Michael and Lauren discuss the media reaction to the Susanna Gibson story--its origins from Republican operatives and how Gibson's team has handled the resulting PR.

• Congressional Black Caucus Week

• We were debriefing on the Richmond forum on affordable housing.