Chaz Nuttycombe: How Does Redistricting Impact the State Senate?
TODAY'S STORIES: First, Gov. Glenn Youngkin called the legislature into Session to resolve the budget despite the House and Senate not having an agreement on how to resolve a $3 billion gap between each chamber's version. While the Governor can call them into session, they can gavel in and gavel out until negotiators have a deal.
Second, Youngkin is pressuring the legislature to pass a gas tax holiday to ease the pain at the pump. The only problem is that gas tax savings would put that cash back in the pockets of the oil companies, not stay in yours. It would also deprive funds for public transit and public infrastructure improvements.
Third, Republicans are forcing the state government to purge reference to equity from their websites. The Virginia Education Association is stepping up to preserve their important work, announcing it will serve as a clearinghouse for diversity training materials and other resources that might be purged from state websites.
GUEST - Chaz Nuttycombe, director of CNalysis. Chaz discusses the new state senate districts that have two or more incumbents in them and how those incumbents might fare. He also covers other interesting races like Sen. Joe Morrissey v. former Del. Laschrecse Aird, and former delegates Hala Ayala vs Jennifer Carroll Foy.
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Michael Pope
I'm Michael Pope.
Thomas Bowman
I'm Tom Bowman.
Michael Pope
And this is Pod Virginia, making sense of Virginia politics...most of the time.
Thomas Bowman
That's a good way to phrase it. Later in the show, our friend Chaz Nuttycombe is back. The Director of CNalysis will break down the new Senate maps, specifically the districts that have two or even three members as a result of court drawn redistricting.
Michael Pope
It was great to talk to Chaz again, for me personally, but I know for our listeners as well, because Thomas, as you well know, from looking through our stats, our most popular episodes are with Chaz Nuttycombe. So it's great to have him back on the show, and you're definitely going to want to stick around to hear what he says about all these Senate districts that have two members, or even three members, in them.
Thomas Bowman
And a highlight that I'm going to tease you with is we talk about Jennifer Caroll Foy versus Hala Ayala in Prince William. We talk Joe Morrissey versus Lashrecse Aird in Petersburg. You're definitely going to want to hear that, so stick around.
Michael Pope
Okay, let's get to the news. More money, more problems. That's the situation with Virginia's budget. The difference between the budget presented by House Republicans and the budget presented by Senate Democrats is $3 billion. Yes, that's billion with a B. Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University says that's because the historic budget surplus this year is creating a lot of money sloshing around the system.
Quentin Kidd
Legislators being willing to leave town with that much money as a divider between the House and the Senate's budget, reflects, more than anything else, the huge amount of money that is, essentially, there in surplus this year.
Michael Pope
Now in previous years, having more money available might have made things easier. But Stephen Farnsworth at the University of Mary Washington says the fact that it's actually made things more complicated, is a reflection of increased partisanship.
Stephen Farnsworth
When you're looking at a circumstance where there is a significant surplus, it ought to be easy for everyone to find something to like, but in partisan times like this, even having a surplus, which, normally, smooths the way to a deal, doesn't seem to be happening right now.
Michael Pope
So lawmakers are coming back to Richmond today, Thomas, but don't expect a compromise to emerge. Apparently, there has been very little negotiation and deal making since the lawmakers left town. And I even hear that the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee has been in the Caribbean sport-fishing.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, I guess it's gonna be interesting to see what comes out of the legislature. The Governor is able to call them back into session, but as has happened in the past, they can gavel straight out of session if they have nothing to talk about, or maybe, can't get a quorum, for whatever reason in the House, because everybody's on vacation. So you shouldn't go into battle without a battle plan. You need to know what you're doing. And this is not a situation where you can just carve out like pork barrel spending for members to get their vote for a budget. We're talking about paring back the Senate budget, or adding spending in the House budget, in order to close this $3 billion delta, which is a lot of money, certainly a historic amount of money, but also from the state level, it's not a lot of money. It's not going to be life changing money if it were all given back in taxes, because most of that would go to people who pay a lot of taxes, or businesses, corporations. This is not going to go, mostly, to the little guys like you and me.
Michael Pope
Well, it's important to remember that $3 billion, extra, in the Senate budget will actually get you a number of things, more money for teachers, more money for affordable housing. The real difference between the House Republican budget and the Senate Democrats budget is, essentially, kind of boils down to, do you want huge tax cuts, or do you want increased services? So like, if you look at that $3 billion gap, the biggest part of that is $2 billion, the House Republicans want to spend, to double the standard deduction. So that's not in the Senate bill, it is in the House Republican bill, $2 million price tag, excuse me, $2 billion price tag, is a huge price tag for doubling the standard deduction. And that's a major point of disagreement that they have yet to resolve at this point.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, also from somebody who was in state government for so many years, usually the budget is very lean, they're always starved for cash, this is not a situation that's likely to continue occurring. So I think it is completely foolish to have this discussion about doubling the standard deductions. We need to make some key investments into education, into infrastructure, into health care, with the pandemic still going around. So, you know, what are you doing, trying to- I hate, I hate to even use their term, "tax cut," because that's not what it is, this is a handout. This is not going to actually accomplish the goal of putting more money in your pocket. However, those services would make your life a lot better if your teachers came back to teach again, because they were getting a raise, if you're- what was the other stuff that you mentioned?
Michael Pope
More money for affordable housing is one of the big ones. So like, the House Republicans want to invest $100 million in the Housing Trust Fund, which is a big chunk of change, and like more than previous budgets, but the Senate Democrats want to invest $300 million.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And during a pandemic, when people- there's an eviction crisis, people are not able to work as much as they can, or if they've been sick, they've got potentially lingering health problems that prevent them from working now. So you're in a situation where there's a greater strain on our affordable housing stocks, and those resources there. So this is the time to fund quality of life services and enhance the safety net when it is being strained.
Michael Pope
Well, also in the news, Governor Glenn Youngkin, is proposing a three month gas tax holiday, temporarily suspending the state gas tax, to help people as prices continue to rise at the pump. But a significant portion of those savings will not be passed on to Virginians. Chris Wodicka at the Commonwealth Institute says it's a bit more complicated than that.
Chris Wodicka
If we get rid of the state retail gas tax, which is around 26 cents per gallon, the price of gas would not automatically go down by 26 cents per gallon. And so that difference would, effectively, go to oil companies for them to add to their bottom line.
Michael Pope
So about a third of the savings will go to the oil industry, according to research into how this worked when Indiana and Illinois had a gas tax holiday. But that does not mean Virginians will see the rest of those savings. Carl Davis at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy says a quarter of the savings will go to out of state drivers.
Carl Davis
And a significant slice of Virginia's gas tax isn't paid by Virginians in the first place. It's paid by tourists headed down to Williamsburg and Virginia Beach, or it's paid by truckers headed up and down I81, passing along their higher transportation costs to, in many cases, out of state residents.
Michael Pope
So this idea of the gas tax holiday was not part of the conversation when lawmakers left town, the Governor sort of added this as a new twist since the session ended. Thomas, what do you make of the idea of a gas tax holiday?
Thomas Bowman
Well, look, a gas tax holiday does not lower the price at the pump. It cuts funds for public transit and rail. If you're already paying, let's say $4.26 for gas, you've shown that you're willing to pay it, the market is willing to bear that price. And so therefore, even if there is a gas tax holiday, those oil companies are not going to, all of a sudden, charge $4 a gallon. They're gonna keep it right at $4.26 a gallon, because that's what people are willing to pay for it, or whatever is competitive for that stretch of road there. So this is a policy that's really a targeted attack on the parts of Virginia that did not vote for Glenn Youngkin, because it cuts the funding for public transit and rail in those urban areas that mostly have Democratic voters. So the tax savings, of course, as mentioned, is mostly pocketed by oil companies, not people like you and me. And in a way, this is not surprising, because Glenn Youngkin's campaign was financed by interests like the American Petroleum Institute, the Koch brothers, and coal companies. So this is a handout to his campaign donors and fossil fuel interests.
Michael Pope
Well, it's true that about a third of the savings will go to the oil companies, and a quarter of the savings will go to out of state drivers. So when you add that up, that's about 54% of the savings will not go to Virginians. So that's kind of the egg head, you know, view of this from people that have crunched the numbers. But it's important to keep in mind, Thomas, I think most people who, of course, go to the gas station, and every time they go to the gas station, they they see a higher price tag, and it's sticker shock. I think there's sort of a visceral response to, "Okay, gas tax holiday? That sounds good to me." You know, like I-
Thomas Bowman
Sure.
Michael Pope
I sure would love a gas tax holiday, I would love to pay less at the pump. So I think from a communication standpoint, the Governor has a really clear message here. He's looking out for you. The problem is the way the gas industry works, it really doesn't quite work that way.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And there's actually better policies that the Governor could pursue if his real goal were to put more money in your pocket. So for example, New Zealand provided half off all public transit fares in lieu of gas tax suspension to increase access to public transit. In California, working families are gonna get a $400 individual rebate so they don't leave behind families that don't drive, and in the states that are implementing the gas tax holiday, they're doing it better than Youngkin's proposal, because Maryland, Virginia, and Florida's gas tax suspensions will only last one month, and they have backfilled funds for long delayed and immediate transit needs. So Virginia's plan, however, cuts much deeper than all these states combined, and has no plan to backfill any of those losses. Virginians deserve more than a half baked, ineffective policy from its governor.
Michael Pope
Well, one last story before we take a break. The word, "equity," has become a fault-line in Virginia politics on one side of the debate are people who say they're concerned that the word has become code for, "equality of outcome." On the other side of the issue are people like Frank Callahan at the Virginia NAACP, who says state education officials have spent the last few years creating some really excellent resources for teachers.
Frank Callahan
The Virginia Department of Education has put out an excellent 57 page document talking about continuous road that to equity, and in that they express tremendous amount of determination to recognize its responsibilities to advance racial, social, and economic equality and education throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Michael Pope
But that's a resource that might soon be purged from the Department of Education's website now that the state superintendent is recommending resending all of the equity initiatives. James Fetterman at the Virginia Education Association says those resources need to remain available.
James Fetterman
I am so proud to announce that today that the Virginia Education Association will now serve as a clearinghouse for the inequity training materials and resources that could be eliminated from the Virginia Department of Education website in the coming days.
Michael Pope
So that was Fetterman announcing at a press conference in Capitol Square that all of the resources, that may soon be purged from the Department of Education website, will be available on the VEAs website. You know, Thomas, during the campaign, we saw the Governor, the now Governor, then candidate, campaign against Critical Race Theory. So now that he's Governor, he wants to deliver on that. And of course, he can't ban Critical Race Theory from Virginia schools, because it was never taught in Virginia schools, so he's got to do something to fulfill this campaign promise. So he's going after equity. This has become a dirty word. If equities involved, let's purge it from the system. What do you make of this approach?
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, specifically, there are a basket of policies, known as dei policies or, "diversity, equity, and inclusion." And we've pursued these policies because we realize that not everybody comes with the same baked in, fundamental, advantages in life. So be it parents who are able to sit at home and read with their kid, if you've got two working parents, you're not very likely to have that kind of time with your kid. And that's just an example. But equity is very broad. It doesn't necessarily mean race, but it often means race, and think about the type of values somebody has to have when they're willing to object to equity being included, as if it were a dirty word.
Michael Pope
The criticism you hear among Republicans is that equity now means something different than it used to mean. And it now means, "equality of outcome." We all have the same outcome. And this strikes a lot of people as not a good idea, that, you know, that everybody gets a trophy party for participation? It's the sort of- that kind of thinking is, is what they are raising objections to.
Thomas Bowman
Well, that's a red herring, because that's not what it means. And the only people saying that are the Republicans, who deliberately campaigned on confusing you, to make people think that that's what it meant. And now that they've been successful in that, they're trying to complete their coup de gras. And, Michael, this is just the return of white supremacist, segregationist politics, only repackaged, and repurposed, for the 21st century.
Michael Pope
Well, if you're a teacher, and you're listening to this, and you were depending on those equity resources being available from the Department of Education's website, now you can go to this other website, the VEA's website, and they will have them all up there as a clearinghouse.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, great. All right. Let's take a break. When we come back, we'll be joined by our friend Chaz Nuttycombe. I know that's what you all want to get to. So he's gonna help us make sense out of those new Senate maps. Some of the court drawn districts have two or three incumbents in them. So what's going to happen in those districts? Find out after the break.
Michael Pope
And we're back on Pod Virginia. We're going to open up our redistricting maps and take a look at the Senate districts that now have two, or even three, incumbents as a result of those court drawn maps. Returning to the podcast to help us dig through the new maps is our friend, the Director of the CNalysis, an election forecasting group, that specializes in state legislative races. Chaz Nuttycombe, thanks for returning to the show.
Chaz Nuttycombe
No problem. Thanks for having me on.
Michael Pope
Okay, so I want to go through all the Senate districts and I want to start with one of the marquee races, Senate district 18. This is the Hampton Roads seat that has two incumbents, Senator Louise Lucas and Senator Lionel Spruill, who are expected to actually go head to head, and run against each other as incumbents. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of this race?
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think that's been the only one where you have an official declaration for the State Senate, where the state senators on the Democratic side, have, you know, declared that they're going to be running against each other. You know, Lucas has has blown up on on Twitter, you know, whoever's running her digital is doing a really great job at it. Yeah. You know, she's been kind of the face of Democratic defiance against Youngkin. And, you know, while there's a little bit more of Spruill's voters in this new district, from his old district to this one, Lucas's old district- and this, it's not far behind, I think it's about 10,000, fewer under these new lines, according to VPAP. You know, it's it's hard to say, who's going to come out on top here. It's very early. You know, if if Lucas comes out on top, I think that has to do with her, her reputation of, you know, standing up to Glenn Youngkin, and blocking his agenda to the best of her ability, and, you know, the great digital that she has going for her.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, this is an interesting one. Senator Lucas is a great Democratic vote. Lionel Spruill is a good labour vote, and former comms worker himself, I believe. So this will be a sharp primary, potentially, that splits a lot of Democrats who are otherwise friends.
Michael Pope
And very rare that you see two African American incumbents running against each other. This might actually be a first, two Black incumbents running against each other in a primary. Also, another interesting Hampton Roads race is the Virginia Senate District 20. It's got two Republicans, Bill DeSteph and Jen Kiggan's, plus a Democrat, Linwood Lewis. So you got three incumbent senators. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of this district?
Chaz Nuttycombe
So I think this is probably going to be a DeSteph versus Lewis race because in Kiggan's congressional race against Lauria, I think she's a slight favorite. So I just kind of want to entertain the DeSteph versus Lewis scenario here. You know, Lewis is a rare Democrat in Virginia. He's actually able to win a good amount of Trump voters, Republican leaning voters. He won Akhmat County in each of his runs. And he does he just does very well on the Eastern Shore. He's beloved there. And that's, that's, of course in this district, as well as parts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. I think even despite Lewis' ability to win over Republican voters, traditionally, I think one thing you do have to factor in there is that he didn't really have strong opposition against him, in both of his runs, because his old district was a lot bluer, so there wasn't really much point in Republicans contesting him. This district nearly went to Trump, and in a 2023 election, I would say DeSteph comes out on top against Lewis, even despite Lewis' ability to win over Republican voters.
Michael Pope
All right, turning our attention to Central Virginia. We've got Virginia Senate District 26 that has two Republicans paired together, Ryan McDougle and Tommy Norment. Chaz Nuttycombe, are we going to see another incumbent versus incumbent race here, with McDougal and Norment going after each other?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, I have no idea of what their intentions are. But I think it would be a very, very interesting race. I mean, you do have an open seat with the western part of Hanover County, as well as other bits of rural Central Virginia as well. This has the eastern part of Hanover, which is Mechanicsville and Atlee, Coldharbour. And then it's got New Kent County's got James City County, Gloucester, and Matthews County. And it would be a really interesting map to look at if these two did run against each other. McDougal, of course, would win Hanover, and he would most likely win New Kent because, to be honest with you, New Kent is just an extension of Hanover County. But I think Norment would win James City, Gloucester, and Matthews County. So it would be a- it would be a- because I would classify the latter three counties as like the Hampton Roads area. So it'd be Hampton Roads versus Central Virginia. And, you know, it would be interesting to see that map, but, you know, we'll see what happens. I don't know what their intentions are. But personally, I hope that the two of them run against each other, because I would just love to see that, uh, that regional divide. I think it would go right along the New Kent and James City County border.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, that's a fascinating dynamic in play, and Tommy Norment has been in the Senate for a really long time. And, you know, so as McDougal, to his credit, but Tommy Norment's got a lot of seasoning on him. And so I wouldn't be surprised if Tommy Norment decides that he's ready to retire, especially, and we'll get to it later, Janet Howell, Dick Saslaw, some of his other cohort, are also thinking about leaving, so...or rumored to be leaving, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Tommy Norment go and, you know, pass the torch over to Ryan McDougle.
Michael Pope
Turning our attention to Senate District 12. We've got two incumbents from different parties this time. Amanda Chase versus Ghazala Hashmi. I understand that Amanda Chase might have a primary opponent in Glenn Sturdivant. So there's all kinds of drama happening in this senate district. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do you make of the dynamics here for Senate District 12?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so while she does, Senator Hashmi, does live in a State Senate District 12, she's said that she's going to be running for District 15, I believe that's her intention. So the primary, or convention, or whatever format the Republicans have here, is really the interesting one. Democrats can't win this seat, period, in 2023. Trump won this by six points. So in the 2023 environment, which is going to be Republican friendly, Democrats can't win that. So it's really, whoever the Republican nominee here, wins it. You've also got Tina Ramirez and yes, Glenn Sturtevant has announced he will be running for the seat. So it'll be interesting to see what happens in whatever format they choose. You know, Chase has stepped on a lot of, you know, Republican toes, but you know, it's at the same time, can a Republican really get primaried from their left? You know, Amanda Chase, you know, she's described herself as, "Trump in heels." So if a Republican beats her, it's got to be someone from her left. You've got- Sturevant had a, you know, he was, you know relatively moderate Senator, center right Senator when he was in the General Assembly, and then Ramirez is, you know, I would say, has probably center right, too. Wherever they are, they definitely aren't far right like Amanda Chase. So, you know, if anything, I think if Democrats were smart, they would want to get a little messy, and see if they can, somehow, get Amanda Chase out, and get one of them to win. Or on the other hand, if they wanted to, you know, they could let it, you know, let it play out, and hope Chase wins, so that in a more Democratic friendly environment, because this district is treading leftward, you know, they could actually unseat Chase with a Democrat, in say, 2027 if there is a Republican White House.
Thomas Bowman
I'll just say that, Amanda Chase is the gift that keeps on giving, as far as fundraising goes. So I don't see an incentive for Democrats to want Amanda Chase out. I see an incentive for a lot of Americans, and Virginians, to want Amanda Chase out because the things that she says and does are incredibly reckless, and irresponsible, and dangerous. But as far as pure political motivations go, I don't see why Democrats would ever want to get rid of Amanda Chase.
Chaz Nuttycombe
That's a fair point, she does she does make a good fundraiser.
Michael Pope
She, actually, makes a good fundraiser, even for this podcast. After she attacked me on the Senate floor, we picked up some new patrons. So thank you, Amanda Chase for helping us raise money for our podcast.
Chaz Nuttycombe
If Amanda Chase wants to come after CNalysis for whatever reason, I'm more than welcome.
Thomas Bowman
We'll put you in touch. We'll put you in touch.
Michael Pope
Before we move on out of Central Virginia, I want to talk about a district that is not a double member, triple member district, but it is worth talking about, which is Senate District 13, where we might see a campaign of Senator Joe Morrissey versus former Delegate Lashrecse Aird. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of the political dynamics there in Senate District 13?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so Aird did declare her intentions, I believe it was last week, or two weeks ago. This is mostly Morrissey territory, not only in his current states, or yeah, current state senate district, but also his old House of Delegates District, which was in Henrico. So it's really hard for me to see Morrissey lose here. I don't think he's certain to win. But you know, I'd put his chances at least somewhere around like seven, seven out of 10 chances that he wins, at least. Probably maybe around eight and 10, at the most, right now. Somewhere between that range. I think if Aird wins, it's an upset. I don't think she's even running the Democratic primary for- I think when she got her seat first in 2015, she didn't have any opposition, if I recall correctly. Morrissey is a great campaigner, too. He is the definition of a grassroots campaign, or that that man can knock doors like no tomorrow, just remembering back to his primary against Rosalind Dance, you know, so it's hard for me to see him lose, but I think Aird has a, you know, a slight chance of beating him.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, let me tell you about Joe Morrissey's operation. He rolls up in his cars, or vans, or trucks with two to four campaign volunteers. And the four volunteers go and knock on every door, while Joe Morrissey walks down the middle of the street, and whenever somebody answers, they call him over. And he sits there and talks to that person as long as he can. They work off no list, they work off no, like, voter file, he doesn't give a shit if the person can vote for him or not. He's going to talk to them. He is a master of retail politics. So you're right, Joe is absolutely going to be tough to beat, and for good reason. That said, you know, my personal feeling is, so Joe Morrissey is currently my Senator, and I would love to see Lashrecse Aird prevail here. My heart is with her, but my brain, and my experience, says Joe.
Michael Pope
All right, turning our attention to Senate District 35. We've got two Democrats paired here. Dave Marston and Dick Saslaw. Now Saslaw has already announced on the Senate floor he's not running again. That wasn't an official declaration, but I mean, he's made it really clear. He's not coming back. So Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of Senate District 35?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. So in the 2020 session, when Democrats came into power, I remember I ran into Saslaw, and he pretty much, you know, said to me that he was not going to be seeking reelection. So this is this was a decision made a while ago. So you know, we'll see what happens here? Apparently Kathy Tran might challenge Marston? You know, we'll see what happens with her. She's, as we talked about in the last episode, when we were going over the House, she and Eileen Filler-Corn are in the same House of Delegates district. So we'll see what happens there. But uh, you know, I would say it's Marston's race to lose.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah. And you know what, before the redistricting amendment passed, the conjecture was, because everybody was speaking openly about how Saslaw and Jen Howell were going to retire. So the plan, allegedly, was that Saslaw and Howell were both going to carve up their districts to maximize the number of Democratic Senate seats that they could in Northern Virginia, just because the rest of the state is not so great for Democrats. And, and Dick Saslaw has said, by the way, before, "Well, if you have nonpartisan redistricting, you're going to lose the Senate." So, you know, that may or may not be true. We're going to find out here soon. But the plan was always for Dick Saslaw to retire, and he wanted to leave the Senate in good hands, and Dave Marston is very politically aligned, former Republican, used to work for a Republican member. And now he flipped parties before he ran for office, and ran as a Democrat. He's been very outspoken on gun legislation. And he's got a base of like the Moms Demand Action crowd. Kathy Tran, who might challenge Dave Marston, would be a really interesting dynamic, because Dave Marston is probably too conservative for that district, all things considered. And Kathy Tran is fairly progressive. And I think she just got drawn in with the Speaker, and they're not really interested in fighting against each other because that district is mostly a Tran district anyway, and that may not go well for Speaker Filler-Corn. I don't know. So Kathy Tran challenging Dave Marston, alleviates a problem in the House, causes a problem in the Senate, from their point of view. And I don't know, like I kind of...I would lose no sleep if Kathy Tran decided to go do that and won.
Michael Pope
All right, I want to talk about a couple Northern Virginia seats that are, not technically, double member, triple member districts, but they're worth talking about. The first is Senate District 29. This is incumbent Senator Jeremy McPike. He does not have another incumbent drawn into this district with him. But he might be challenged by Elizabeth Guzman, in which case McPike might travel up to the adjoining District 30, where he might face Delegate Danica Roem. So Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of the political dynamics there in these pair- these several different adjoining Senate districts here for the 29th and the 30th?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, these are these are pretty diverse districts, that McPike, especially the current one he's in, is quite diverse. And, you know, it's I think he'll have a hard time winning against someone like Guzman, especially since, I would say, Guzman is to the left of Senator McPike. But you know, we'll see what happens. It's this is all, you know, I would say hypothetical right now. We don't know who's running where yet for these kinds of races. So you know, we'll see what happens.
Thomas Bowman
Guzman is amazing at raising money, by the way. She calls you up about, maybe 30 days, or less, fewer- probably like two weeks after the last time you can tributed to her and says like, "Where's my money? I want more." And, actually, she is very good on the phone. She is excellent at compelling you to open up your wallet for her. And Jeremy McPike doesn't do that in the same way. Jeremy McPike does not have a huge amount of name recognition. He doesn't have a huge base following. He's really nice. He's a good vote. He's another like, middle aged, white guy in politics. And if Guzman wants to challenge him, this is a Guzman seat. If Jeremy McPike goes off and faces Danica Roem, that would be a huge mistake for him because Danica has a national base. She's going to be endorsed by the Victory Fund and she is their...like she is an A Lister, as far as LGBT community goes. And her having just a bottomless pit of name recognition, and potential contributions coming in, Jeremy McPike cannot compete with that. So this might be, I'm not going to predict that this is the end of Jeremy McPike, because that would be a mistake, but this could be the end of Jeremy McPike. As far as his political career goes. I've also heard, and Chaz, Michael, maybe you can correct me if I'm wrong, or confirm this, that Jeremy McPike, potentially, could go run for Congress, and just avoid the whole mess. I think if he did that things will get interesting.
Chaz Nuttycombe
No. Spanberger is going to run in the Senate. She's already declared that. I can't see him moving up. He's way too low profile. I mean, you make good points, you know. He's going up either against Guzman, who, as you pointed out, is a prolific fundraiser. And I would say she also has a little bit of a national profile. She gave the Spanish response for the State of the Union when Trump was in office, for the Democrats. So she she's got a little bit of a national profile. Of course, Roem is more known, nationally, you know, making history as the first transgender legislator. And not only that, but man she is she's a great campaigner, as well. Not to say that Guzman isn't a great campaigner, but- but then you know, you're talking about Spanberger or Wexton? You know, that's phew. That's a- that's a death sentence, right there. So I think McPike just has to hope in that case, that you know, Guzman- he doesn't have to go up against Guzman or or Roem for for one, one of those state Senate seats.
Michael Pope
All right, one more Northern Virginia district I want to talk about. It's not a double member, triple member district, but it's one that's has a lot of people talking, it's Senate District 33, where we might see a race that features Hala Ayala versus Jennifer Carroll Foy, two former delegates. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of Senate District 33?
Chaz Nuttycombe
This is, easily, going to be the number one Democratic primary on my radar. Both of these former delegates ran statewide in 2021. Carroll Foy ran for governor, obviously did not win. She was running as the progressive's progressive in that primary. Obviously, again, she didn't win, she was running against McAuliffe who had more...She didn't have a chance, her campaign was not well run. But that is not to say, you know, she isn't a good campaigner. I remember when you know, she was running for delegate the first time in 2017. She was going up going up against the Democratic establishment when they were trying to get.... can't even remember his name? Something something King? I think?...Josh? Josh King? Yeah. You know, and that being said, she only narrowly beat him. But regardless, you know, it was still an upset, I would say. So now she's also going up against Hala Ayala, who was the Democratic establishments choice in the Lieutenant Governor primary. And this- so this is going to be an ideological battle. Make no mistake about it. Carroll Foy, the progressive, versus Hala Ayala, who is, you know, a standard liberal. You know, I think one thing that Carroll Foy can really attack Ayala on is the money she took in the Lieutenant Gubernatorial Democratic primary, she took over 100 grand from Dominion, you know? So it's going to be a very, very interesting primary here. This is going to- you're going to have, I think, all the progressive groups in Virginia, coming out against Ayala, and trying to get Carroll Foy back in office. So this is, easily, number one for me for Democratic primaries in 2023. I'm very, very excited to see what happens here. Because I think this is really the only ideological battle here between liberal versus progressive in the State Senate Democratic primaries.
Thomas Bowman
Yes, I agree 100% with Chaz. This is the Battle Royale. This is the main event. This is the Pay Per View fight that everybody is waiting for in Democratic politics. They both have statewide profiles. I would argue probably Hala Ayala's is higher, having made it to the General, and Jennifer Carroll Foy probably should not have run statewide prematurely, because now she doesn't have any elected base of support in that locality to go up against Hala Ayala. So I think she's set herself a little bit behind the eight ball. But I don't know how significant that is. What's fascinating about this race is you can always tell whether or not you're talking to somebody who aligns more with Carroll Foy, or more with Hala Ayala, because they are 100% convinced that whoever they support is going to win, and smoke the other person, like, "They don't have a chance. They're gonna get- this other person- the other person is gonna get killed, what are they doing?" It's the exact same conversation from one side to the other, just names reversed. So we'll find out.
Michael Pope
Turning our attention to Lynchburg. We've got two incumbent Republicans that have been drawn into the same district, Steve Newman and Mark Peak. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of the dynamics out there in Senate District 8?
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, this is mostly Newman's old district. I do like I do like this district. It's very clean- talking about its actual shape. No county splits or city splits. You know, it'll be interesting to see what what what happens here. Newman might retire. But I think, I really think it's his race to lose. So given, you know, the amount of voters in this district, the ones that have been moved and whatnot, it's mostly his constituency. So you know, if he retires, it's really just a spare Mark Peak, you know, as has been in the hasn't been in the General Assembly as long as Newman.
Michael Pope
Moving over to Roanoke, out in your area, Chaz, we've got Senate District 4, where we've got an incumbent Democrat and incumbent Republican. We've got longtime Senator John Edwards, and relative newcomer Dave Suetterlein. Chaz, what do we make of the dynamics out there in Senate District 4?
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think, you know, Edwards is it's I think it's no secret that he's going to retire. I'd be very surprised if he ran for reelection. This is a Trump plus 0.25 District is trending leftward. So it's gonna vote for the Democratic nominee in 2024. I'd put a lot of money on that. But, regardless, it's not going to be competitive in in 2023. It's not- it is not possible. Besides, maybe in Linwood Lewis's race, because the man has been proven to actually win over Republican voters. It's not possible for a Democrat in 2023, to win to win a Trump district, even in the narrowest of margins. So, you know, a Suetterlein, assuming that he is the Republican nominee, will win this district. I think, you know, Sam Rasoul may, apparently, be looking into this? I hope he isn't because he can't win this race. I think he's better off us running for his House seat equivalent, because no Democrat is winning the seat in 2023. Now 2027 presents an opportunity if, and only if, there is a Republican in the White House.
Thomas Bowman
Yes. 100% agree with you there, Chaz. This, this has always been John Edwards' seat. It's not a Democratic seat. And it's not a Republican seat. It's John Edwards' seat. And it was always understood that when John Edwards retired, this seat would be gone for Democrats. And you know, Phil Puckett's seat from back in 2014, was very similar to that, in that kind of arrangement. And so John Edwards, amazing, hardcore, beloved, Democrat, and a good progressive, frankly, for a man who's in his 80s, I think, he will retire. And I don't know if Sam Rasoul is running or not. I imagine he's thinking about it. It would be a mistake, because any other Democrat we could run for that seat, will have a better chance of winning than Sam Rasoul, although I think Chaz is going to, ultimately, be correct, in that, there will not be a Democrat winning.
Michael Pope
All right, one last Senate race I want to talk about before we end. I want to end on a strong note, here, because out in Senate District 2, in Shenandoah Valley, we've got three incumbents, one Democrat and two Republicans. This is a district where we've got Creigh Deeds, Emmett Hanger, and Mark Obenshain. Chaz Nuttycombe, what do we make of the dynamics out in Senate District 2?
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so while in this district you got more Obenshain voters, than Hanger voters, you know Hanger- I would say Hanger is still better of a campaigner, that that's just my opinion. I know that Deeds is in this district, but, you know, he's going to be moving to the Charlottesville, Albemarle district, so there are no longer be Bath County and Allegheny, and Highland represented by a Democrat. Hell, Deeds couldn't even win Bath County against an independent in 2019. You know, that that county is gone gone. His his home county, which he which he won with over 60% of the vote back in 2009, when he was running against McDonnell. So, you know, we'll see what happens if someone retires, or you know, someone moves. But yeah.
Thomas Bowman
If Creigh Deeds moves to Charlottesville, he'll continue to represent a district in the Senate. You know, Creigh Deeds ended up having one mission in life, which was the Mental Health Commission after his his son had such a tragic suicide several years back. And and he got that commission. He got what he wanted. He is a political veteran, he's been fighting the good fight for, at this point decades. I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to retire, and doesn't want to deal with a move. It's a lot to manage. And there are plenty of Democrats in Charlottesville who could represent Charlottesville.
Chaz Nuttycombe
That'd be a very, very fun Democratic primary to watch if this seat- if the Charlottesville seat does become open. You're right on the money that there are a lot of Democrats who will run for this seat if it does become open.
Thomas Bowman
Yeah, Sally Hudson could try to move up. David Toscano could come back, potentially, and be a senator now. This is wide open. And of course, I'm not naming other very obvious potential candidates, like the mayor of Charlottesville, and other council members, perhaps, so like this isn't a clear Democratic seat. Deeds may or may not want to move, but I also, now think, that like he's more likely to retire, having accomplished his reason for being in the Senate.
Michael Pope
All right. Well, this has been tons of fun. Chaz Nuttycombe, thank you so much for joining us, and help us walk through all these senate districts, and make sense of this morass of these court drawn maps. So I hope you'll come back to walk us through the congressional district sometime soon. Pod Virginia is a production of Jackleg Media. Our Producer is Aaryan Balu. Our Social Media Manager is Emily Cottrell. And our Advertising Sales Manager is David O'Connell.
Thomas Bowman
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Michael Pope
We'll be back next week with another episode of Pod Virginia.
