This week, friend of the show Trevor Southerland joins Thomas and Michael to break down the results of the 2023 primaries--specifically, where candidates spent their money to reach voters. While topline fundraising numbres are one part of the story, targeted spending can make a huge difference. How does investing in mailers compare to TV ad buys? What does heavy investment in robo-calls mean for a flagging campaign? And can any amount of money paper over a message that misunderstands the base?

IN THE NEWS: This weekend marked the beginning of the new fiscal year, although Virginia is beginning the new year without any budget amendments. That means that all the laws passed earlier this year are not funded. So while the government won't shut down, a whole host of new initiatives are simply not going to get moving until someone blinks in the negotiations. A few years ago, Dominion Energy donated to the campaigns of just about every member of the General Assembly. Then in 2018, a PAC called Clean Virginia, funded by a millionaire became a counterbalance. Now the two sides are battling for dominance, and each side can claim some victories in the primary elections. Southside Virginia has the highest unemployment rate in the Commonwealth. That’s according to new numbers from the Virginia Employment Commission. Places like Petersburg, Emporia, Brunswick County and Danville have unemployment rates that are about twice as high as Northern Virginia. At the Watercooler: - The Koch machine is likely to fall in behind Ron DeSantis for President...which would mean dire things for Governor Youngkin's chances - Some of the strongest Democratic candidates to come out of the primaries--Russet Perry, Kimberly Pope Adams, and Susanna GIbson--all have one thing in common: they graduated from Delegate Danice Roem's Emerge Virginia earlier this year. TRIVIA: What were the other two British colonies that remained loyal (other than the Canadas)?

With the 2023 primaries over, attorney and Virginia election-watcher Sam Shirazi joins Thomas and Michael to discuss the toss-up Virginia House and Senate races coming up in November. With control of the Senate up for grabs, some of these races are seeing an influx of money closer to Congressional campaigns--so what does the funding mean, and what does low turnout at the primaries bode for Election Day in November?

IN THE NEWS:

Despite sensationalist media coverage, recent FBI statistics reveal that crime rates in Virginia, and nationwide, have actually decreased significantly over the past three decades--with blue states having lower crime rates than red states. So what causes the news reports and political rhetoric that says these are the most dangerous times?

Virginia doesn't require primary voters to register as Democrats or Republicans; and last week, Democrats were worried by Republican calls for their voters to vote in Democratic primaries potentially shifting the results. But those worries weren't borne out--and evidence shows that cross-party voting has never been an effective political rool.

With the primaries finished, both Democrats and Republicans are calling the other side extremists--with Democrats pointing to the MAGA movements and Republicans pointing to recent electric vehicle mandates that'll go into effect by 2030.

At the Watercooler:

- "Tiger King"'s Doc Antle was just convicted in Virginia for trafficking endangered lions

- Republicans House candidates have been especially quiet in their respose to last week's primary results

The day's finally here. Primary results are in, and the results is a surprising amount of turnover. Saddam Salim defeats Chap Petersen. Lashrecse Aird defeats Joe Morrissey. Glen Sturtevant defeats Amanda Chase...and a whole host of other races. Fmr. Delegate David Ramadan (R-Loudoun) joins Thomas and Michael to break down what Tuesday's results means for November's general election and the future of Virginia's legislature.

Thomas and Aaryan sit down to discuss some last thoughts on some of the top primary races going into tomorrow's election: Foy vs Ayala? Aird vs Morrissey? Will Amanda Chase hold on? And what's going on in Northern Virginia?

This week, the Virginia Beach School Board held an eight-hour meeting that ended at 2 AM, voting on two resolutions: passing one that affirmed a commitment to non-discrimination against LGBTQ+ youth, and rejecting a proposal that would create a list of library materials with "objectionable content."

On this episode, we're joined by Emily LaBar and Jacob Cruz, two student organizers who worked with dozens of fellow students and school board members over several months to help pass the non-discrimination resolution. They discuss their path to organizing their community, passing the resolution, and affirming the safety of LGBTQ+ students in the face of model policies that threaten their rights.

Charlottesville is taking the lead in early turnout. That's true in both the Senate race with the most early votes and two House races that have the highest turnout so far according to an analysis from the Virginia Public Access Project. The high-stakes Senate primary between Senator Creigh Deeds and Delegate Sally Hudson might be driving the trend. The controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving ahead as part of the deal reached on the federal debt ceiling negotiations. But as the effects of climate change continue to rear their heads, environmentalists say the pipeline continues to lock us into a key greenhouse gas--methane. Before the new set of political maps was created by the state Supreme Court last year, Virginia engaged in a process critics call prison gerrymandering. People who are incarcerated were counted at the prison or jail instead of their home or last known address. Now, that's no longer the case. At the Watercooler: - The Richmond shooting that left two dead--and what Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl-Sears had to say in the immediate aftermath - Primary day is coming up!

This week, Michael is joined by Kellen Squire, an emergency care nurse and a candidate running in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 55th state House District. Squire recently came under fire for a 2017 draft of his campaign website that claimed he was "pro-life," only to advocate for progressive policies rather than restriction of abortion access. Squire says the framing was intended to build credibility with Republican voters who agree with progressive positions (such as providing maternal care, school lunches, and sex education)--and that he dropped the tactic shortly after receiving feedback that it would backfire. In this episode, Squire explicitly rules out any restrictions on abortion access and discusses the criticism from his primary opponent, who he says was aware of his position before the most recent wave of of media attention. Content Warning: This episode includes a description of an ectopic pregnancy and abortion. Note: this episode includes some distorted audio. When asked about 35 minutes into the episode whether he supports any restrictions on abortion, the first word of Squire's response is "No."

IN THE NEWS: Mobilized and Politicized: Governor Glenn Youngkin is sending 100 National Guard troops to the southern border in Texas next month, a move that will cost milions every month, and which critics say is politically motivated. The Budget Standoff Continues: Everyone involved in the negotiatons for Virginia's budget amendment is waiting for the June 20th primary deadline to pass...and with many state reps involved in active primary fights, the Democrats reluctant to give Youngkin a win, and both parties hoping for a shake-up that'll bring the next General Assembly in their favor, it's unlikely we'll see a deal in the next few weeks at all. The War of Wireless Aggression: The Prince William County Board of Supervisors is considering a huge data center next door to the Manassas Battlefield, a proposal that is raising alarm among people who are concerned about urbanization of rural land. Others say data centers bring in huge revenue for local governments. At the Watercooler: - The Mountain Valley Pipeline may well move be moving forward after all--eminent domain and all - Six Virginia newspapers are moving from a daily model to three days a week TRIVIA: What is Virginia's state liquor?

Michael and Thomas are joined by Heidi Drauschak and Saddam Salim, two Democrats who are primarying incumbent state Senators in the upcoming election. Heidi is running in the newly drawn State Senate District 35, challenging Senator Dave Marsden, while Saddam is running in the 37th District, challenging Senator Chap Petersen. In this interview, Heidi and Saddam discuss where they stand on the issues, where their opponents have made mistakes, and why they're the best fit to help shape Virginia's upcoming General Assembly.

Every group makes endorsements, but which ones make a difference?

What's going on with the endorsements in the Deeds v Hudson state senate primary?

Speaking of endorsements--while school board races are technically nonpartisan, endorsements from political parties are quickly becoming huge factors in school board races across the country.

Four years ago, Progressive Prosecutors for Justice came into office. Now, a few of their most prominent members have challengers in the Democratic primary in Fairfax and Loudoun and Arlington.

Joe Morrissey's estranged wife Myrna files suit with allegations of abuse

A deep dive from the Virginian Pilot about the history of Virginia's slightly-revealing state seal

This week, Michael and Thomas are joined by Wanda Bertram, Communications Strategist for the Prison Policy Initiative, to discuss Virginia's practice of using "civil commitment centers"-- facilities that continue incarcerating people convicted of sexual crimes after they've finished their prison sentences. Sometimes, they're held in those facilities indefinitely. With less data from these treatment facilities than we get from prisons, Wanda, Michael, and Thomas discuss the constitutionality and ethics of this practice--and what might need to change in the future.

Out of the 40 seats in the Virginia Senate, only seven districts will conduct Republican primaries. Meanwhile, Democrats will hold primary elections in more than twice that number of districts.

Your license plate might be coming to a database soon. That's because local law enforcement agencies are about to get new high tech license plate reader technology from pandemic stimulus recovery money.

Virginia's new law gives individuals a right to bring a lawsuit if they feel a website that shows adult material has failed to verify the age of a minor.

At the Watercooler:

- Saddam Salim, the Democrat primarying Senator Chap Petersen, gets a key labor endorsement

- Roben Farzad's Full Disclosure podcast interviewed Face the Nation's Margaret Brennan live in Charlottesville

This week, Michael and Thomas are joined by Bob Brink, former Chairman of Virginia's State Board of Elections, to discuss the ERIC system-- the Electronic Registration Information Center, which allowed neighboring states to share voter registration information with each other and help prevent voter fraud. Governor Youngkin has pulled Virginia out of ERIC, so what does that mean for elections going forward?

Virginia is the capital of gun trafficking in America according to data compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms and Tobacco showing Virginia has the shortest time to crime ratio. That’s the amount of time between the last known legal purchase of a firearm and its use in the commission of a crime.

Norfolk is considering a proposal to install 35 acres of solar panels on a former landfill.

Youngkin's campaign against the word "equity" continues, and he's now railing against environmental and social governance on corporate boards, also known as ESG. Last week he told reporters DEI and ESG have gone "off the rails."

At the Watercooler:

- Report cards from the Family Foundation and Repro Rising for the members of the General Assembly.

This week, Michael and Thomas are joined by Bill Leighty, former Chief of Staff to Governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and author of "Capitol Secrets", where he dives into his long history in Virginia politics--from Kaine and Warner's leadership styles, the legislative tricks of Senator Ed Willey, and convincing Tom Hanks to film a historical miniseries in Virginia.

IN THE NEWS:

Governor Glenn Youngkin has removed "equity" from the title of his director of diversity, equity and inclusion, calling the term "confusing." But experts say the term is important to capture the unequal playing field in the United States, and the governor now faces calls for his DOI chief to resign.

The latest campaign finance disclosures show several incumbent members are falling behind the competition: Senator Joe Morrissey, Senator Amanda Chase and Delegate Kelly Convirs-Fowler. Some say that shows controversial candidates are not appealing to the donor base.

Public funds are for public schools. That's the message from supporters of Virginia schools, who say the governor should not be appropriating money from the lab school fund to private institutions.

At the Watercooler:

- Adult video sites are threatening to pull out of Virginia

- Arlington County Board Elections and the "missing middle"

This week, old friend of the show Trevor Southerland joins the Thomas and Michael to discuss the chaotic upcoming primaries for Virginia's state legislature--including campaign fundraising numbers, the influence of Dominion Energy and Clean Virginia, and some of the latest drama across the aisle.

- Senator Louise Lucas v Senator Lionel Spruill in Senate District 18

- Senator Jeremy McPike v Delegate Elizabeth Guzman in Senate District 29

- Senator Joe Morrissey v Delegate Laschrese Aird in Senate District 13

- Delegate Suhas Subramanyam v former Delegate Ibraheem Samirah in Senate District 32.

- Senator Amanda Chase v Tina Ramirez v Glen Sturtevent in Senate District 12.

- Delegate Kelly Fowler v Susan Hippen, Brandon Hutchins, and Sean Monteiro in House District 96

IN THE NEWS:

• Both parties are showing huge fundraising numbers.

• Virginia sees a labor force participation rate that is slightly higher than it was before the pandemic started.

• Richmond city leaders are considering an expansion to the bus rapid transit system known as the Pulse

At the Watercooler:

• Senator Louise Lucas is throwing shade at Northern Virginia Senators.

• Lots of endorsements in Virginia races, including from Lt. Governor Winsome Earl-Sears and Congresswoman Lauren Boebert.

TRIVIA: What is the highest peak in Virginia?